You're probably right about that. After reading your post, I did a quick search and easily found this:
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OBrien Explains What Type Of Quarterback He Wants
- Thread starter PapaL
- Start date
You're probably right about that. After reading your post, I did a quick search and easily found this:
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Not sure what Kaep has to do with my quote. I said drafted "after the 3rd round (arguably 2nd)." Kaep was drafted in the 2nd. He doesn't fall into after the 3rd or 2nd.
Trap_Star
SiteContributor
i hate when stuff like that comes out. it reeks him being full of shit...if he really thought kaep was the best player in the entire draft, especially being a QB, he'd of taken him in the 1st round and not in the 2nd.
i hate when stuff like that comes out. it reeks him being full of shit...if he really thought kaep was the best player in the entire draft, especially being a QB, he'd of taken him in the 1st round and not in the 2nd.
Not if he thought he could get him in the second round.
Mike
When was Foles drafted? Not sure if the Iggles planned on starting him but I don't think they thought that Vick was a longtime solution.
Mike
Mike
Trap_Star
SiteContributor
if the #1 player, who happens to be a QB, on your board falls to you at 7 and you pass on him cause you're pretty sure he's going to be there in the 2nd round...then either you're lying or you're stupid but got lucky.
let's not forget, they were on the market for a young QB at the time. this was before Alex Smith's "resurrection".
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
i hate when stuff like that comes out. it reeks him being full of shit...if he really thought kaep was the best player in the entire draft, especially being a QB, he'd of taken him in the 1st round and not in the 2nd.
Not if they didn't feel they needed a QB and thought whoever they drafted in the 1st would help the team more even though not BPA. Then when he fell lower than they expected they decided to go ahead and get him. Aldon Smith who had 14 sacks as a rookie and 19.5 in his 2nd year was their pick in the 1st.
Foles was brought in to replace VY as Vick's backup. Vick was one year into a 5 year $80 mil contract.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
You're making the assumption that the #1 player on your board is the QB.
What if the #33 player on your board is the QB and you think he can be a QB who could develop into a franchise QB? What if the #25 player on your board is the first QB you have on your board and then you have about 7 or 8 bunched up pretty tight within about 20 picks or so?
If the #1 player you have on your board is a QB and you need a QB, then you take the QB. You only trade back if the #1 player on your board is not necessarily at a position that you need OR you judge that you need more picks. Otherwise, you take the guy at the top of your board whether he's a QB or not.
BUT! You have to remember the way that teams construct their boards aren't like the way that "draft experts" construct their boards. When a team is drafting BPA, it's a totally different thing than when someone outside the team is calculating which player is BPA.
Aaaah....fair enough.
Still, I'm not sure what your point is. Being drafted in the first round means, you're tied to that guy for an extended period even if he's unsuccessful. OTOH, not being drafted in the first round doesn't exclude you from winning the starter's job if, as O'Brien claims and Pete Carroll has shown, your head coach has a truly unbiased open competition.
So if O'Brien truly doesn't see a whit's worth of difference between the "top three" and everyone else and he may well decide to go BPA in rounds one, two, and maybe three and then snag A.J. McCarron or a Murray (just to pick a couple of names) in the fourth. But, unless he was lying through his teeth about the open competition thing, that doesn't eliminate McCarron/Murray from competing, and maybe winning, the starter job.
I guessing (totally guessing) that you want to see O'Brien pick a QB at 1-1 so you know he's committed to him and we're not going into the season with Fitzy or T.J. or Case as our starter. Or if one of those guys does start in 2014 he'll be supplanted by our new guy in 2015.
His point is no one drafted a 4th rounder or later with a "realistic" expectation of that guy being the franchise QB.... or even starter.
& he's right, unless you believe Sean Peyton believed in Romo way back when.
Still... why spend a first on Stafford, when you can get a Romo undrafted? Or a Schaub in the third, or a Foles in the third, or a Cousins, or even a 7th rounder like Fitzpatrick who's been in the league going on 10 seasons... or Matt Cassel?
If you see a Brady, or a Manning, or a Brees, or a special QB that falls to you in the first round, yeah... you can't pass him up, if you believe that's who he is. But for someone who'll most likely be that second tier guy? You can find better value.
I also don't believe the round makes the man. QBs drafted in the first are more likely to succeed, I believe, not because they have more talent (New England thought they got the best QB in the draft with a 3rd round pick in 2011). But because the intention is to do as much as they can to make him successful.
If you draft a guy in the third round, or trade for him, or sign him through FA, & do everything you can to make him successful, he'll have a better chance at being successful.
PHILLYTEXANFAN
Saddle Up Partner
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
My point was about draft strategy by teams. The proposal I was responding to was now in an hour of desperation at QB to wait until the 4th round or later. I am not saying force the need and pick one higher. I am saying no team sets out to solve their QB problem in that fashion. Successes from that low come from exceeded expectations by guys picked as backups with potential, not by design.
Not saying they should be eliminated from competition and hopefully they exceed their draft expectation and turn into the next great surprise. Just saying that is not a plan for solving the future of the QB position followed by NFL teams.
Nope. I want OB to have a plan for a new starter no later than the beginning of 2015. I don't care who, when or how particularly although I have opinions about individuals. If there is a surprise along the way, great. But as with the discussion with beerlover on taking two QBs late in his mock I think that is close to wasting picks which would better be spent on upgrading other positions/depth rather than a viable plan for finding a future starting QB.
Keep in mind, we passed on Aaron Rodgers for Travis Johnson. We basically traded Joe Flacco away for Duane Brown. We passed on Colin Kaepernick for Jj Watt.
So you don't have to have the #1 overall pick to get a franchise QB. We need to get better at evaluating the QBs we have & the ones available to us in the draft (or FA).
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
The only one of those I would put in the mistake column is Rodgers and that was the prior, prior regime.
Agreed. But some people like Flacco & Kaepernick so I included their names.
Aaron Rodgers, I don't think anyone knew he would be this good. Good, yes. Quickly forget the gunslinging, HoF, living legend good... no idea. Of course Bret's texting proclivities might have helped many want to forget.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
...
I think O'Brien is doing this the way it should be done. He's "kicking the tires" on every prospect he can to see who fits what he wants to do with this offense.
Size, scrambling ability, pure arm strength, and all those other Oooh, Aaaah things are not as high on his list as football smarts, passing accuracy, and work ethic.
Just maybe he thinks he's got as good a guy on this roster as there is in this draft. And that guy is already used to NFL speed. That guy has already seen NFL coverages. And by "good" I mean NFL ready.
Perhaps this year may just be between "Fitzy" (anyone else notice that O'Brien gave him a nickname already), Keenum, and Yates. The new boy - no matter what round he's picked - might just have to watch this season. ...unless he's a real quick study.
Size, scrambling ability, pure arm strength, and all those other Oooh, Aaaah things are not as high on his list as football smarts, passing accuracy, and work ethic.
Just maybe he thinks he's got as good a guy on this roster as there is in this draft. And that guy is already used to NFL speed. That guy has already seen NFL coverages. And by "good" I mean NFL ready.
Perhaps this year may just be between "Fitzy" (anyone else notice that O'Brien gave him a nickname already), Keenum, and Yates. The new boy - no matter what round he's picked - might just have to watch this season. ...unless he's a real quick study.
i hate when stuff like that comes out. it reeks him being full of shit...if he really thought kaep was the best player in the entire draft, especially being a QB, he'd of taken him in the 1st round and not in the 2nd.
I understand the perspective. The only thing I'd speculate is that the current power struggle between Harbaugh and front office has been on-going for years. Harbaugh could have had Kap rated high, but he's not the only one making decisions. The fact that his QB ended up being good most likely empowered him, and along with three straight NFC championship games and a SB appearance, he's probably exerting his power as HC more than ever. The result is recent stories leaked about trouble in San Fran's front office.
We don't know O'Brien well enough as a HC, so I can only surmise that a lot of this talk is jedi mind tricks that he learned from Belichick. Maybe he really sees very little separation between all these QBs, but I have a hard time believing that the top 3 are not far from someone drafted in the 3rd or 4th round.
I honestly think O'Brien is keeping his cards very close to his chest in order to keep everyone guessing, especially other teams. If a team values a player high enough, they will make an offer for the pick. I think we need to be a little wary and skeptical about everything being said, because I do not believe for a second that it's all pure truth with regards to their thoughts on players.
Gotta hand it to OB with his comments in the last day because he's been downright garrulous while being entertaining and even informative but not rambling. Did we find out what's he gonna do with the 1.1 ? Of course not, but he's given some real insight into the thinking process he and his staff have gone thru to include the pros and cons of some of the prospects.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
Makes me wondering if he IS doing the Jedi mind tricks by talking so much about some of these guys when he was silent for so long about the team in general. Get a few teams lined up behind him in the draft scared that they are going to get their guy because OB is talking about him, and they pull the trigger on giving away the farm to get the 1.1 pick. Not saying it's happening, but if I were to have a tendency to wear tinfoil hats, I could convince myself of it.
I thought that was a possibility until they signed Fitzpatrick. I'd have signed Brady Quin or someone like that if I thought I had the guy on my roster, if I were going to sign anyone at all.
The money spent on Fitzpatrick could have been spent on a player to help us win games instead of a benchwarmer.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
This is where I'm putting my bets.
oh snap... next you'll be trying to convince me there is no Santa Claus.
Oh, there's a Santa Claus, no doubt about it.
However, I hate to break to you, but the elves are really underpaid and overworked Chinese labor.
Oh, there's a Santa Claus, no doubt about it.
However, I hate to break to you, but the elves are really underpaid and overworked Chinese labor.
I can't heeeear you.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
So what was put on display today for Bill O'Brien and the Texans was not a preview of Johnny Manziel's football potential...
What was previewed was the media storm that will envelop your team if you tab Manziel as your quarterback. Obviously not intended to take the forefront, but every team present just got a firsthand feel for what comes with Johnny Football.
Some organizations need it. Will OB sign up for that?
What was previewed was the media storm that will envelop your team if you tab Manziel as your quarterback. Obviously not intended to take the forefront, but every team present just got a firsthand feel for what comes with Johnny Football.
Some organizations need it. Will OB sign up for that?
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
So what was put on display today for Bill O'Brien and the Texans was not a preview of Johnny Manziel's football potential...
What was previewed was the media storm that will envelop your team if you tab Manziel as your quarterback. Obviously not intended to take the forefront, but every team present just got a firsthand feel for what comes with Johnny Football.
Some organizations need it. Will OB sign up for that?
NO! OB will not want to deal with Monday Morning Manziel Madness........that lasts game-to-game throughout every week. If Manziel doesn't get totally killed by the D, surely OB will finish off the job.
I doubt it. From what they said on the radio, ESPN did the same thing for Andrew Luck & Ryan Tannehill. So this is nothing to be scared of.
As a matter of fact, it's something this team needs. Someone who can deliver when the lights are on. Sure, we do fine in our 12 noon (central time) time slot, & we're not bad on Thursday night... but prime time on Sunday, or Monday... yeah we can use a QB who thinks he belongs on that stage.
We're going to have to grow up sooner or later & for an NFL franchise, that means extra media attention, being a media darling.
htownfan32
Hall of Fame
Manziel delivers with the lights on him. He might not have the best mechanics of anyone in this draft, but I will bet that he's the most competitive of all of them. Some guys just thrive under pressure.
This team lacks that culture. That ability to thrive under pressure. It wasn't here with Gary.
This team lacks that culture. That ability to thrive under pressure. It wasn't here with Gary.
PapaL
Loose Screw
People said that about Vince Young. How'd that work out?
You mean the Texans should sign VY to mentor Johnny Fooseball?? What an idea!!
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
No need to trade back into the first for McCarron. He'll be there at the top of the 2nd and probably the 3rd. He lasted till the 4th in the mock so waiting would be much more prudent.
1.1 Clowney
Then set up a contingent trade with Atlanta. If Bridgewater, Bortles or Manziel are there, trade him for their entire 2014 draft and their 1st in 2015.
6 1600
37 530
68 250
103 88
139 36.5 Oops. Can't trade this one. Trade the 2015 3rd instead 62.
147 32.6
182 18.6
220 3.4
253 or these
255 or these
total 2559 plus 420 for 2015 1st.
Then surprise them all by taking Matthews with 1-6 and taking McCarron in the fourth.
New Texans draft:
1-6
2-33
2-37
3-65
3-68
4-101
4-103
4-135
5-141
5-147
6-177
6-181
6-182
6-211
7-216
7-220
7-256
Atlanta 2015 1st
Atlanta 2015 3rd
Last edited:
drs23
Veteran
Really? Don't bogart, ppp. Capice?
htownfan32
Hall of Fame
If Manziel has a better work ethic than Vince Young, it shouldn't matter.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
Uh! No? I've heard the reference, but the definition eludes me. Something to do with Humphrey Bogart I suppose. Capice - understand in Italian I think.
But the trade is right in line with others. ~3000 for ~3000 in trade point value and Atlanta is apparently drooling over Clowney.
Forget about the "Draft Value Chart" because it means nothing this year.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
It always means nothing until a trade goes down. I agree it is useless in determining the value of career play, but it does a fair job of estimating Potential value used in trades.
But say it's gone. How much would you expect in a trade for this years number one?
I had no idea that draft day trades and all were what OB is looking for in a QB. For some strange reason I thought it was a Tom Brady clone. Gotta love the off season!!! NOT!!!!!!
The Pats are always wheeling & dealing & stocking up future draft picks. I'm expecting to see a bit of that here in Houston.
Texan_Bill
Hall of Fame
I totally agree. They have been notorious for trading back and stockpiling picks. That said, Manziel's performance was impressive enough to actually re-consider him as the first pick.
Texan_Bill
Hall of Fame
I do know this........... Coach O'Brien is under a tremendous amount of stress.
He knows he needs a QB and there are plenty out there, but does he want the smaller guy that appears to be the full package (who as an aside performed well - with pads) or does he want the big 6'-5" guy (i.e. Blake Bortles)....
Unfortunately, given his track record, whether a piece of the Pats organization or as HC of Penn State, he's looking for a Blake Bortles kind of guy.... The 6'-5" guy...
He knows he needs a QB and there are plenty out there, but does he want the smaller guy that appears to be the full package (who as an aside performed well - with pads) or does he want the big 6'-5" guy (i.e. Blake Bortles)....
Unfortunately, given his track record, whether a piece of the Pats organization or as HC of Penn State, he's looking for a Blake Bortles kind of guy.... The 6'-5" guy...
Texan_Bill
Hall of Fame
As an aside, Matt Schaub was listed at 6'-5", 230......... Just sayin'!
Mr.Scarface
Rookie
Manziel's arm is better than Bortles
there has not been a trade out the number 1 draft position in ten years. the last time a team traded an entire draft for any pick was the Ricky Williams saints stuff. A trade like this one is the a combined wet dream for the entire Texans fans base and organization.
Actually, with the Texans already having 11 picks, getting an "entire" draft is not functionally practical w/o lots of trade back ups and move picks into 2015.
I don't mean to say I believe we'll trade our #1 pick. We've got 11 for this year. While they don't carry as much value as the #1, 2.1 & 3.1 look really good in this draft with all the underclassmen coming out.
If he has two guys who were exactly the same in every way but height, I'm sure he'll pick the taller of the two... one less thing he has to deal with (unless one guy is freakishly large like 6'8" or 6'10" then height is a negative).
[senseless rant]
But they aren't all the same. Most everyone says Bridgewater has the highest football IQ of this bunch & he might.... but Manziel is no dummy & he's got other intangibles that Bridgewater doesn't come close to (imho).
The spotlight's been on Manziel since he was named a Heisman candidate as a Freshman. It's only gotten brighter & he's shined even brighter every step of the way (by most accounts). After winning the Heisman & all the attention he got over the summer, 2013 was supposed to be a test of his ability to perform up to higher expectations despite the distractions, I think he passed with flying colors.
Can Bridgewater do the same? Has he? I don't know that he can, I have no idea how he'll perform against the best of the best. Right now, he looks like Case Keenum in the preseason (if I can use that analogy), where nothing he's done to date has any bearing on how he'll perform in the NFL. That's just me & I know "y'all" don't agree.
Flacco came from a small conference, Ben came from a small conference, Cullpepper... yaddah, yaddah, yaddah.... they were all prototypical size & had laser guided rocket arms. I just don't see Bridgewater at 1-1 because he can read a junior college (or damn near) defense.
& then his pro day... little lights & he bombs. Johnny Day was a national event (hyperbole) an ex-POTUS was in attendance, the Gov of Texas was in attendance & he's playing booty shak'n music... Johnny doesn't blink an eye. It's like he was born for this.
I don't want the Texans to draft a QB with 1.1, I'll get behind any QB they do draft, but of the main three everyone talks about I can understand Manziel, I can understand (don't agree with) Bortles, I don't understand Bridgewater.
[/senseless rant]
I know fantasy football isn't the exact same but the drafting process itself is still very similar. If I see a player that I think everyone has way underrated sitting there in the 1st round of the draft I don't go get him if I believe that noone knows how good he is. Part of being a GM is out manuvering your competition on draft day.
An example would be our drafting of duane brown. We didn't think anybody had him higher on our board so we dropped back a few spots and picked him up at the tail end of the first instead of the middle. We COULD have just taken him at 15(ish, don't remember exactly) but we dropped back.
If you thought that Mettenberger was the best QB in this draft would you take him No. 1 overall?
Mike
drs23
Veteran
Exactly.