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Number19's 2024 mock

Number19

Hall of Fame
This isn't a typical mock, with just a preferred prospect, or two, for each selection. What I'm doing here is a position group mock, with a group of prospects that may be available at each selection, for a particular position group. For the most part I'm sticking with prospects which have had visits with the Texans, with a preference for T30 visits. I've included a few prospects which I haven't identified as visiting with the team.

At 2/42 I haven't changed my preference for LB Payton Wilson. In my view he is the prototypical modern LB who can be a three down backer, having the skills to be the Nickleback in the 4-2-5 defense. Our three LBs would be Harris, Al-Shaair and Wilson with To'o To'o as #4.

Now 2/59 and 3/86 are switchable. I'm going to put Safety at 2/59 and CB at 3/86, but it could just as easily be reversed.

2/59, Safety : Nubin, Bishop and Bullard are my three prospects for this position group.

3/86, CB has Melton, Lassiter, Pritchett and James as my prospects.

With LB, Safety and Cornerback taken with the first three picks, I've solidified our defensive back end for the next two or three or four years, the window I see for our SB push.

The 4th round is where I fortify our trenches both offensively and defensively.

At 4/123, irregardless of what happens with Howard, we need depth at RT, so I'm drafting a RT here. Prospects include Kiran Amegadjie (who is recovering from quad surgery), Delmar Glaze and Frank Crum.

At 4/127 my prospects are for DT and there are a bunch from which to choose at this point in the draft, including Jaden Crumedy, Gabe Hall, Michael Hall, Khristian Boyd and Jordan Jefferson.

6/188 is where I finally select a RB and there are two which caught my eye and both were T30's : Ray Davis and Isaac Guerendo.

From this point on, with one exception, it's BPA, concentrating on STs. The exception is RG Zak Zinter, who is rehabbing from a broken leg, with a high probability he may have to go on PUP. Before the broken leg he was projected as a high prospect, top 50. It's improbable he falls into the 6th, but if he's there at 6/189, I'd jump at the opportunity to take him.

And that's it.

This is a deep draft and it would be next to impossible for the Texans to go wrong; and with good prospects at all the position groups the Texans most likely will be looking at. For me it's going to be interesting to see how Ryans and Caserio approach this draft and which positions are prioritized.
 
Good job. Enjoy seeing the different ideas out there. I don't think this draft is all that deep personally, especially with the lack of underclassman, but I do believe the strength is what DeMeco said - 2nd - 4th.

Let me compare your ideas to my own beliefs. Also, all of this assumes no trades, which is like asking a seal to never take a dip into the ocean.

2-49 & 59 - DT or CB all the way. I get the excitement over Wilson, but given the current roster construction, needs, etc. I don't see them taking an LB this high. DT is this teams biggest need, with CB close behind imho. Open to being wrong, but that's my thought. I think they try to trade up for Newton but that's a wild guess. If they stay put, Hall or Fiske would be a couple of names to watch. Melton and Lassiter probably won't last to 86 and would also be in the mix with these selections.

3- 86 - Give me a sold safety prospect here. I could also see LB. Bullard would be a great choice. S or LB in the 3rd.

4 -123 & 127 - Hall is a riser. If you want Hall, it may have to be 59 or even 42. He's been a fast riser. I am going offense in these picks. Any two of the following: OT, RB, WR or TE

Beyond that...ST guys with a chance to develop is fine, and possibly a backup QB prospect depending on how the board falls.
 
Good job. Enjoy seeing the different ideas out there. I don't think this draft is all that deep personally, especially with the lack of underclassman, but I do believe the strength is what DeMeco said - 2nd - 4th.

Let me compare your ideas to my own beliefs. Also, all of this assumes no trades, which is like asking a seal to never take a dip into the ocean.

2-49 & 59 - DT or CB all the way. I get the excitement over Wilson, but given the current roster construction, needs, etc. I don't see them taking an LB this high. DT is this teams biggest need, with CB close behind imho. Open to being wrong, but that's my thought. I think they try to trade up for Newton but that's a wild guess. If they stay put, Hall or Fiske would be a couple of names to watch. Melton and Lassiter probably won't last to 86 and would also be in the mix with these selections.

3- 86 - Give me a sold safety prospect here. I could also see LB. Bullard would be a great choice. S or LB in the 3rd.

4 -123 & 127 - Hall is a riser. If you want Hall, it may have to be 59 or even 42. He's been a fast riser. I am going offense in these picks. Any two of the following: OT, RB, WR or TE

Beyond that...ST guys with a chance to develop is fine, and possibly a backup QB prospect depending on how the board falls.
You consider CB to be #2 priority and LB not so much. I like Wilson because, even though he's called a LB, I have him as the Nickleback in our base defense. If I'm wrong about this, or if Ryans would not play him at this position, then my preference at 2/42 changes. So at Nickleback, is Wilson a LB? Wilson, with my scenario, fills the inside CB position. Then with either the 2/59 pick, or the 3/86 pick, I fill the outside CB position.

Where we differ most is at DT. I have it rated a bit lower than you seem because we have our two starters. Ryans likes to platoon his DL, and my opinion is that our need is with the #2 at the DL1T position. We have Khalil Davis as #2 at DL3T, behind Autry. We need a solid #2 behind Fatukasi and Boyd is my preference in the 4th. But I don't think he's visited with the Texans and he's a small school prospect, two negatives going against him.
 
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You consider CB to be #2 priority and LB not so much. I like Wilson because, even though he's called a LB, I have him as the Nickleback in our base defense. If I'm wrong about this, or if Ryans would not play him at this position, then my preference at 2/42 changes. So at Nickleback, is Wilson a LB? Wilson, with my scenario, fills the inside CB position. Then with either the 2/59 pick, or the 3/86 pick, I fill the outside CB position.

Where we differ most is at DT. I have it rated a bit lower than you seem because we have our two starters. Ryans likes to platoon his DL, and my opinion is that our need is with the #2 at the DL1T position. We have Khalil Davis as #2 at DL3T, behind Audry. We need a solid #2 behind Fatukasi and Boyd is my preference in the 4th. But I don't think he's visited with the Texans and he's a small school prospect, two negatives going against him.
If we’re going to draft a LB to cover WR3/TE I’d rather draft James Williams, from Miami and move him down to LB from safety.
 
If we’re going to draft a LB to cover WR3/TE I’d rather draft James Williams, from Miami and move him down to LB from safety.
OK suggestion, but he's a lot - a lot - slower than Wilson. My source has him rated as a falling top 150. But he was moved/tried in the backer position at the Senior Bowl. Seems to have some limitations in that role.
 
OK suggestion, but he's a lot - a lot - slower than Wilson. My source has him rated as a falling top 150. But he was moved/tried in the backer position at the Senior Bowl. Seems to have some limitations in that role.
Not sure I’d say a lot slower. There was a difference of 0.05 in their 10 yard splits. Williams is also significantly taller, with longer arms and bigger hands.

Honestly I’m not to thrilled on the idea of using a LB as the nickleback. Like that’s nightmare fuel to me.
 
Texans just signed LB Jacob Phillips to a one year prove it deal, athleticlly gifted, primarily for special teams, however if can stay healthy could be rotational. Was 3rd pick in 2020 by the Browns. Not saying this cancels out drafting a LB, just not a priority pick.
 
Texans just signed LB Jacob Phillips to a one year prove it deal, athleticlly gifted, primarily for special teams, however if can stay healthy could be rotational. Was 3rd pick in 2020 by the Browns. Not saying this cancels out drafting a LB, just not a priority pick.
Not a priority if healthy. But like the other talented FAs with an injury history (none longer than Phillips). He’s a lotto ticket. Maybe he hits like Cashman and stays healthy enough to make an impact. Maybe not.
 
I’m looking for enforcers who are listed as a Safety and CB…..that have the ability to run support with some authority. Give me the following:

CB- Khyree Jackson (Oregon) 6-4 @ 194 lbs / 4.50-40

SS- Kitan Oladapo (Oregon State) 6-2 @ 216 lbs / 4.58-40

CB- Miles Battle (Utah) 6-3 @ 198 lbs / 4.37-40

I could easily see all three adding a bit more strength and weight during their first NFL season. They would offer a lot of protection for the LB’ers while making the idea of coming across the middle a bit more scary.

What I like most about this group….all three should be fairly easy to obtain with current group of picks.
 
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Good job. Enjoy seeing the different ideas out there. I don't think this draft is all that deep personally, especially with the lack of underclassman, but I do believe the strength is what DeMeco said - 2nd - 4th.

Let me compare your ideas to my own beliefs. Also, all of this assumes no trades, which is like asking a seal to never take a dip into the ocean.

2-49 & 59 - DT or CB all the way. I get the excitement over Wilson, but given the current roster construction, needs, etc. I don't see them taking an LB this high. DT is this teams biggest need, with CB close behind imho. Open to being wrong, but that's my thought. I think they try to trade up for Newton but that's a wild guess. If they stay put, Hall or Fiske would be a couple of names to watch. Melton and Lassiter probably won't last to 86 and would also be in the mix with these selections.

3- 86 - Give me a sold safety prospect here. I could also see LB. Bullard would be a great choice. S or LB in the 3rd.

4 -123 & 127 - Hall is a riser. If you want Hall, it may have to be 59 or even 42. He's been a fast riser. I am going offense in these picks. Any two of the following: OT, RB, WR or TE

Beyond that...ST guys with a chance to develop is fine, and possibly a backup QB prospect depending on how the board falls.
I hope Caserio uses future picks and moves up into the 1st for

1. Newton
2. Wilson
3. Sainristil.

3 difference makers that have a high upside. I would also trade one of the 4ths to move up to get one of these guys if necessary.


Draft a S in the 4th and sign a S in FA.
 
You would draft Wilson & Sainristil in the 1st? Really?
They are top 50 players.

No I wouldn't.

I would pick Wilson at 2-42 and trade up using 3-86 4-122 and a 6th to move up some for Sainristil. I think he falls somewhere around 3-70 due to size limitations. If I couldn't get him, I'm looking at Renardo Green and Stiggers.
 
Texans 2024 Draft

Round 1 27 Cooper DeJean (CB) Iowa via trade with Az Cardinals

Round 2 59 Braden Fiske (DL) FSU

Round 3 86 Jaden Hicks (S) Washington State

Round 4 123 Theo Johnson (TE) Penn State

127 Cedric Gray (LB) North Carolina
Round 6 188 Hunter Nourzad (OL) Penn State

189 Luke McCaffrey (WR) Rice

Round 7 238 Isaiah Davis (RB) SD State

247 Jaylen Harrell (Edge) Michigan
 
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That may have worked on the simulator but it's not going to work in the actual draft. You'd have to deal both 2nds and maybe get a 4th back to you with 1.27.
It's gonna be expensive to trade in this draft.
Will have to be someone you think is a difference maker to spend too much draft capital.
 
That may have worked on the simulator but it's not going to work in the actual draft. You'd have to deal both 2nds and maybe get a 4th back to you with 1.27.
You are right Lucky. I don't exactly remember what they allowed but remember it didn't seem realistic. I know I added two future draft picks and a our 42 for their 27.

Regardless I would love to have Cooper DeJean because I think he will be to the secondary what JJ Watt was on our defensive line.

I am far from a draft expert but sometimes I base things on gut feelings and I am right. More times than not I am wrong so take of it what you will but my spidy senses are very strong on this one and I think I will be proven right.
 
You are right Lucky. I don't exactly remember what they allowed but remember it didn't seem realistic. I know I added two future draft picks and a our 42 for their 27.

Regardless I would love to have Cooper DeJean because I think he will be to the secondary what JJ Watt was on our defensive line.

I am far from a draft expert but sometimes I base things on gut feelings and I am right. More times than not I am wrong so take of it what you will but my spidy senses are very strong on this one and I think I will be proven right.
Texans current CB room:-
Derek Stingley
Jeff Okudah
CJ Henderson
Myles Bryant
Kris Boyd
Desmond King
D'Angelo Ross
Mike Ford
Troy Pride.
Some of these guys likely aren't on the roster by the time we trim down to the 53 but you cannot guarantee any draft pick will be better than the top 6 in this list.
So that makes me feel a CB will not be our first pick.
Now compare the LB corp.
Very thin.
 
Texans current CB room:-
Derek Stingley
Jeff Okudah
CJ Henderson
Myles Bryant
Kris Boyd
Desmond King
D'Angelo Ross
Mike Ford
Troy Pride.
Some of these guys likely aren't on the roster by the time we trim down to the 53 but you cannot guarantee any draft pick will be better than the top 6 in this list.
So that makes me feel a CB will not be our first pick.
Now compare the LB corp.
Very thin.
I hear you. I just feel Cooper will be special. I can't however guarantee it so with that in mind it is unlikely we draft him. I doubt he even gets to 27 as it is.
 
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That may have worked on the simulator but it's not going to work in the actual draft. You'd have to deal both 2nds and maybe get a 4th back to you with 1.27.
If you want to trade up to 1-27 then it's going to cost 2-42 and a 2025 2nd.
 
Texans just signed LB Jacob Phillips to a one year prove it deal, athleticlly gifted, primarily for special teams, however if can stay healthy could be rotational. Was 3rd pick in 2020 by the Browns. Not saying this cancels out drafting a LB, just not a priority pick.
If Caserio/Ryans go BPA at 2-42, then Cooper who may not be there, or P. Wilson should be BPA and fit a need. I noticed they brought both of these guys in for a top 30 visit.
 
I wouldn’t cry about Payton Wilson, but if they go LB in the 2nd, I think the safer play is Cooper and my guess is that’s the guy Ryans would prefer.. Healthier. Just a guess though.
 
I wouldn’t cry about Payton Wilson, but if they go LB in the 2nd, I think the safer play is Cooper and my guess is that’s the guy Ryans would prefer.. Healthier. Just a guess though.
If we hadn't signed Al-Shaair, Cooper would be a good pick. But with Al-Shaair, he'd be depth.
 
More. The Texans trade down was for the Vikings 2025 2nd. That would be estimated at a half round higher than the Texans 2025 2nd.
The difference is they are trading to 1-27 not 1-24 like the Vikings did.
 
The difference is they are trading to 1-27 not 1-24 like the Vikings did.
The Texans traded I.23. I don't think Caserio got full value as he was negotiating with one team and initiated the trade talks. A team in the 1st round will have more suitors that just the Texans. Both 2024 2nd round picks would be required (2.42 + 2.59) and the Texans get kicked back a 2025 3rd. In other words, there won't be a trade up to the 1st round.
 
The Texans traded I.23. I don't think Caserio got full value as he was negotiating with one team and initiated the trade talks. A team in the 1st round will have more suitors that just the Texans. Both 2024 2nd round picks would be required (2.42 + 2.59) and the Texans get kicked back a 2025 3rd. In other words, there won't be a trade up to the 1st round.
I still not convinced Nick wouldn't send picks in 25 to trade up for a few select targets. Early, early, early reports are not the best on the 25 draft class, and with underclassmen staying in school at record rates there might be a shift in strategy.
 
Even then, I don't think Ryans would want a rookie signal caller.

I dunno....Demeco was a rookie signal caller himself at one point and won DROY.

That said, my best guess would be that the Texans won't be looking for a LB high in the draft though because Nickel is pretty much the base defense these days and the time you have 3 LB's on the field will be minimal.
 
I dunno....Demeco was a rookie signal caller himself at one point and won DROY.

That said, my best guess would be that the Texans won't be looking for a LB high in the draft though because Nickel is pretty much the base defense these days and the time you have 3 LB's on the field will be minimal.
Unless that third LB plays the Nickle. I'm out on a limb here; I'm taking Wilson at 2/42 because I have him in the big Nickle role. Like Cooper, he'd be depth in any other role. For LB depth I'd look in the 3rd or 4th rounds.
 
This morning I'm seeing Sweat fall to the 4th round. There's going to be more than a few teams who would chance him here. If he's falling like that, and he's there at 3/86, I'd jump these other teams and take a flyer on him. I'm looking for immediate impact players with our first three picks and Sweat is the one prospect in this range who could push Fatukasi out of #1.
 
Unless that third LB plays the Nickle. I'm out on a limb here; I'm taking Wilson at 2/42 because I have him in the big Nickle role. Like Cooper, he'd be depth in any other role. For LB depth I'd look in the 3rd or 4th rounds.

I think they are comfortable with Shaair/Harris playing in Nickel. My guess is they will probably take a LB but I think it will be later in the draft. I like Wilson, but I am not sure I see him as so good that he would be more valuable than some of the other players projected to be there around that time...JMO
 
The Texans traded I.23. I don't think Caserio got full value as he was negotiating with one team and initiated the trade talks. A team in the 1st round will have more suitors that just the Texans. Both 2024 2nd round picks would be required (2.42 + 2.59) and the Texans get kicked back a 2025 3rd. In other words, there won't be a trade up to the 1st round.
Agree.
I do however see a move up tomorrow - early.
The top of round two will have some first round talent in it so a lot of teams will be interested.
 
Agree.
I do however see a move up tomorrow - early.
The top of round two will have some first round talent in it so a lot of teams will be interested.
I realize I'm a broken record. But it will be very difficult to trade up that early when other teams will have more draft capital to offer. I would look for Trader Nick to spring into action on Day 3, where he has 6 picks and wants to take 3 or 4 players.
 
I realize I'm a broken record. But it will be very difficult to trade up that early when other teams will have more draft capital to offer. I would look for Trader Nick to spring into action on Day 3, where he has 6 picks and wants to take 3 or 4 players.
I get it, but with 2 picks in round 2 to offer to a team with little draft capital, that might be a big enough carrot.
 
I get it, but with 2 picks in round 2 to offer to a team with little draft capital, that might be a big enough carrot.
What are they trading for? The Texans need those 2nd round picks. What player in the late 1st is worth more than those 2 players?
 
What are they trading for? The Texans need those 2nd round picks. What player in the late 1st is worth more than those 2 players?
On a side note, I prefer they stay with those 2 2nds as well.
They are in the sweet spot.
 
What are they trading for? The Texans need those 2nd round picks. What player in the late 1st is worth more than those 2 players?
I think the fall off from the top 2 DTs and the top 5 CBs to the next tier is significant enough that they have to at least consider trading up if it is at all possible, and one of them falls.

They can always throw 2025 picks into the equation as well.
 
Couldn't Cooper play the Sam role? Why does he have to be a Mike?
The thinking now is how the LBs play in our base defense which is the 4-2-5. Harris and Al-Shaair are the two LBs who stay on the field. SAM comes out. I believe what I'm being told is that we play the 43 only about 30% of the time. So are you good with a 2nd round pick having limited snaps?
 
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