Number19 Final 2015 Mock

[Number19]

INTRODUCTION

The primary focus of my final mock is to build on the 2014 season. We won 9 games and were in contention for a playoff spot right up to the final game; and we did this with instability at the QB position. Since the end of last season, we've kept the core of this team by signing several of our team's key free agents, but more importantly, we've taken steps to solidify the QB position. Plus we've strengthened a very good defense with two key free agent signings; and signed two veteran wide receivers. As we stand right now, barring key injuries, we should be capable of picking up that one extra game and returning to the playoffs in 2015.

The key to my mock is that I've decided to invest heavily at the WR position in the first three rounds; the idea being, to improve the speed and to solidify the position for the next several years in tandem with our new QB's. Our starting offensive line should continue to improve with continuity and I'm solidifying the depth with three selections in the mid and lower rounds. Finally, I've added a late round, small school sleeper running back.

Defensively, with our #51 selection, I've addressed what is, in my opinion, our biggest question mark with the departure of Brooks Reed, the SOLB position. My forth selection is a prospect who will challenge Swearinger for playing time and who may be capable of winning the starting position. I've added a strong prospect at ILB to challenge for the backup role behind Cushing; and I've added a CB prospect to challenge for the nickle or dime backer.

Of course, with only so many picks, there are going to be unaddressed issues, primarily at DE. And I would have liked to have added an ILB with cover skills. But overall, this mock builds on the foundation carried over from 2014; and, with this team, we just may just be capable of taking the division title away from Indy.

MY SELECTIONS

#1/16 ...................... Breshad Perriman .................... WR ............................... Central Florida
................................. 6'-2" / 212 lbs ... 9 1/4" hands.... 32" arm ....[font=arial black"]4.27 40yd[/font]....36.5" vert...10'-7" broad

#2/51 ..................... Danielle Hunter .......................... SOLB .................................... LSU
..................... 6'-5"/252 lbs ... 10 1/2" hands.... 34 1/4" arms ....[font=arial black"]4.57 40yd[/font]....2.67 20yd........1.57 10yd
...............................................25 reps...........6.95 3-cone...........36.5" vert........10'-10" broad

#3/82 ..................... Tyler Lockett ............................ SR/KR ............................... Kansas State
................................ 5'-10" / 182 lbs ... 8 3/8" hands.... 30" arm ....[font=arial black"]4.40 40yd[/font]....33.5" vert...10'-1" broad

#4/115 .................. James Sample ............................. SS .................................... Louisville
................................. 6'-2" / 209 lbs ....... 9 1/2" hands....... 32" arms .........17 reps.....4.56 40yd
.......................................32 1/2" vert.......10'-3" broad..........7.04 3-cone.............4.43 20yd shuttle

#5/152 .................. Austin Sheperd ....................... OG/OT .................................. Alabama
................................. 6'-4" / 315 lbs ....... 10" hands....... 32 7/8" arms .........17 reps.....5.39 40yd
.......................................29" vert.......7'-10" broad..........8.04 3-cone.............4.70 20yd shuttle

#5c/174 ............... Taiwan Jones ........................... ILB .................................... Michigan State
...................................... 6'-3" / 245 lbs ....... 10" hands....... 34" arms .........19 reps.....4.95 40yd
..........................................32" vert.......9'-7" broad..........7.25 3-cone.............4.33 20yd shuttle

#6/194 ................... Greg Mancz .................,,,,,......... OC/OG .......................... Toledo University
................................... 6'-4" / 301 lbs ... 10" hands.... 32 3/4" arms

#6c/211 ................ Craig Mager ............................. CB/FS ............................... Texas State
...................................... 5'-11"/201 lbs ..... 9 1/4" hands .....29 3/4" arms ......[font=arial black"]4.44 40yd[/font]...... 17 reps
................................................6.83 3-cone .....4.07 20yd shuttle...........38" vert........10'-10" broad

#6c/216 .................. Doniel Gambrell ...................... OT ............................ Nortre Dame College
..................................... 6'-6" / 315 lbs ... 10 1/4" hands.... 83" wing span

#7/235 ..................... John Crockett ........................... RB ............................. North Dakota State
..................................... 6'-0" / 217 lbs ... 10" hands.... 4.61 40yd

 

[Number19]

OFFENSIVE NOTES

With our first pick at #16, I'm selecting Breshard Perriman for what he does for our offense; and not focusing on his number one weakness, the concentration drops. Perriman will stretch defenses vertically, forcing safeties to play deep zone coverage and opening up the underneath routes. Our run game will benefit with defenses unable to stack the box.

Perriman has an explosive first step with acceleration that forces cornerbacks to turn and run. And excepting the occasional drop, displays good hands with ability to catch the ball away from his body. He tracks the ball well, has excellent side line presence and has excellent leaping ability for the sensational catch over the defender. Not just a deep threat, he can also make plays across the middle and in traffic, displaying excellent run-after-the-catch. He is a legitimate big play threat on every snap.

In the third round, pick #82 is Tyler Lockett. A perfect compliment to Breshad Perriman, he will benefit from the deep coverage required for Perriman. Lockett is a quick twitch with terrific feet and moves to break open. He runs precise routes and maintains his speed through his cut, and has a second gear burst to gain consistent separation; few defenders can mirror him. Lockett also will have immediate impact as a return specialist. He has a high level of football intelligence and is a film junkie. There are questions concerning his durability, but he has a knack for avoiding the big hit and has held up well so far in his career.

Getting into the middle rounds of the draft, we have to address our lack of depth on the offensive line. The starting five, as of now, is set with Brown (LT); Su'a-Filo (LG); Jones (OC); Brooks (RG); and Newton (RT).

We just resigned 3 year vet Cody White at OG; that's it for guard. My #152 pick in the 5th round is Austin Shepard, a RT for Alabama, but projected to OG. He has good lateral movement and can mirror in pass protection, allowing just two sacks the past two seasons. He shows good zone blocking traits and can take snaps at both guard and tackle.

As a backup for offensive center, we currently have James Ferentz, who spent last season on the practice squad. In the 6th round, with pick #194, I'm selecting a small school prospect from Toledo University, Greg Mancz. A well schooled, versatile leader, Mancz has played every position on the offensive line except LT. In 2012, at RG, he graded out at 86%. In 2013 he graded out at 90%. He was moved to OC his senior season and won second team All-American honors. As a pass blocker, he is quick in his set and can anchor against the bull rush. In the run game, he effectively uses positioning, angles and leverage.

At tackle, we currently have journeyman Will Yeatman and aging vet Tyson Clabo. With our last comp pick in the 6th round, #216, I'm penciling in Doniel Gambrell, a small school project who has all the measurables and athleticism and shows natural technique. What he hasn't had is high level competition, time in the weight room, and more coaching with technique. He did hold his own against FBS level competitors at the College Gridiron Showcase and, with his natural ability, he has an outside chance of making the 53 man roster. But I'm projecting him to the practice squad for a year of seasoning.

Running back John Crockett, my selection at #235 in the 7th round, is an intriguing prospect. A four year starter at North Dakota State, he is currently rated as an UDFA - and I can find no reason for this. But then again, Arian Foster went undrafted. Crockett is a patient runner with a sense of timing and explosion into his cut upfield. He has good vision, reads his blocking and displays shiftiness as well as authority in his running style; and shows some long speed. At the Senior Bowl, linebackers were unable to cover him one-on-one in the passing drills. He shows willingness in pass blocking. Having played in a pro-style offense, he should prove to be a capable third back behind Foster and Blue, if he can beat out Grimes.

DEFENSIVE NOTES

With our 2nd round pick, #51, I'm selecting defensive end Danielle Hunter and projecting him to strong side OLB. What I'm wanting with this pick is to have no loss in the run support that Brooks Reed provided; and Hunter provides this in spades. He has jarring power and strength at the POA and is relentless in pursuit to the sideline. He has instincts, aggressiveness and physicality.

Rushing the passer, Humter was effective in applying pressure from the DE position, but had only 1.5 sacks his senior year at LSU. Looking at his measurables, across the board Hunter is more athletic than both Reed and Mercilus. He has a spin-move and an arm-over, but needs a counter move to these.

Hunter's speed, quickness, and athleticism; and his fluidity and agility in space; should allow him to develop the skills to drop back into pass coverage. Most 34 OLB's are converted DE's and Hunter should effectively make this transition. He had a good showing in linebacker drills at his pro-day.

At #4/115, James Sample is a well built, muscular box safety with a nose for the ball. He closes downhill rapidly and is a proficient wrap-up tackler; excellent in the open field. In his single season with the Cardinals, he had 74 solo tackles, 12 passes defended and 4 interceptions. Has good hand-eye coordination with natural hands. Lacks experience, but after transferring to Louisville for his junior year, and reporting just a few days before camp, he quickly picked up the Cardinal defense and won the starting position. With Lonnie Ballentine and Eddie Pleasant the lone backups behind starters D.J.Swearinger and Rahim Moore, Sample should be competitive for a spot on the 53 man roster and should be a quality special team defender.

Inside linebacker is not a priority need, with six veterans already signed to the roster. Brian Cushing has one spot tied down and next to him, Mike Mohamed and Jeff Tarpinian will contest for the starting role. But, still, we could use a draft pick with good coverage skills for this position next to Cushing's. Searching the mid-round prospects, I found none that, in my opinion, represented an improvement over Mohamed and Tarp. However, if Cushing were to miss playing time, we need a quality backup. This role could currently be filled by Max Bullough or Justin Tuggle. John Simon could also slide inside.

With our 5th round comp selection, #174, I've selected ILB Taiwan Jones , a powerful, physical, downhill tackler with outstanding size and durability; and he is an effective A-gap blitzer, with four sacks this past season. He possesses top instincts, reacts quickly and is a sure, wrap-up tackler. He is football smart, studies film and knows his opponents. He'll challege for the backup role behind Cushing.

Cornerback Craig Mager is another small school prospect with good size and who loves to hit. He is a quick-twitch with strength and excellent change of direction; and has a closing burst. He is a reliable tackler, a good leaper and has strong hands. He can come up and set the edge against the run and has four years starting experience in all aspects of the position. He can press, play off man, play deep third zone and can blitz off the edge. He ran a 4.44 40 at Indy, but plays more to the mid 4.5's. He is a high effort player with 63 tackles, 6 TFL and 3 INT's in 2014. I'm selecting him at #6c/211.

FINAL WORDS

This draft represents what I think the Texans should do, to take better advantage of the rule changes shifting to the advantage of the passing game; and not what I think the Texans will necessarily do. Having signed two veteran wide receivers, I think it unlikely the Texans will select two receivers as high as I propose. And with DeAndre Hopkins the heir apparent to Andre Johnson as our #1 receiver, the Texans may be looking to take a #2 receiver in the second round. This leaves them with the option to target an outside, rush LB with our first pick, depending, of course, on how the first 15 picks fall. But, hey, I can just imagine the explosive offense we could have with DeAndre Hopkins, Breshad Perriman and Tyler Lockett on the field at the same time.

 

[AngryNateFTW]

Danielle Hunter = Boom or Bust

Not sure you risk that with our 2nd round pick. The reason he only had 1.5 sacks is because even with his quick twitch/ athletic ability, he's the slowest one off the ball at the snap.

I wouldn't risk my 2nd, or my 3rd on Hunter because we had a Boom or Bust player from LSU drafted a few years ago albeit his possible bust label was for a different reason.

 

[Number19]

Danielle Hunter = Boom or Bust

Not sure you risk that with our 2nd round pick. The reason he only had 1.5 sacks is because even with his quick twitch/ athletic ability, he's the slowest one off the ball at the snap.

I wouldn't risk my 2nd, or my 3rd on Hunter because we had a Boom or Bust player from LSU drafted a few years ago albeit his possible bust label was for a different reason.

As a standup OLB, his slowness off the snap is not an issue. His measurables/athleticism are better than Reed's or Mercilus'. He's worth a second - not a first. His production against the run/setting the edge is not in question. It won't take much to better Reed's pass rush. If he does this, it will be an improvement at the position.

 

[infantrycak]

As a standup OLB, his slowness off the snap is not an issue.

What?

Inside linebacker is not a priority need, with six veterans already signed to the roster.

We could have 50. Doesn't make any of them good. And a 4.95 guy doesn't help.

 

[Number19]

What?



We could have 50. Doesn't make any of them good. And a 4.95 guy doesn't help.

Come on now. You know the difference between a DE, in a three point stance, firing off at the snap; and a stand-up linebacker reacting off of his reads.

It's a question of, are they good enough. We only have 3 high draft picks. Why draft a player in the mid-rounds if that player is not better than the players already on the roster? If you think that ILB is such a priority and are going to use a top three pick - OK. But I don't consider the situation to be that high of a priority with all our other needs.

It's not uncommon for one ILB to excel in stuffing the run while the second ILB has more skills in pass defense. Jones would be backing up Cushing as more of a run defender. While Jones is not fast, he is quick enough and is similar to Bullough. I lost some confidence in Bullough last year when he failed to make the 53 man roster and was signed to the PS. I feel Jones will have a good chance to win that backup role.

 

[bhsman]

My only issue with Hunter, as someone who watched him at LSU, is that he has some stiff hips and I don't know how effective he would be in coverage - something Reed was able to do adequately. His sack numbers don't bother me, either, considering how conservative the LSU defense was under Chavis - which also makes him more than adept at setting the edge. In that I have absolute faith in his abilities.

EDIT: And nice mock! Always difficult to pull off a 7-rounder with adequate research on every player.

 

[Wolf6151]

1. Perriman, this seems like a little bit of a reach. He's got all the athletics but needs work on his routes. I'm not objecting to the pick, it just makes me a little nervous #16. Developmental pick with lots of upside.
2. Hunter, another developmental pick with lots of upside. I like him in the 2nd. Clowney insurance.
3. Lockett, love this pick, could be the steal of the draft if available.
4. Sample, I don't know anything about the player, my only criticism is that I'd look for a FS instead of a SS. I might also look for some better quality O-line help in the 4th instead.
5. Sheperd, I'll pass on him. I read a critique of him a while back calling him just big, fat, and out of shape with no muscular definition. His 17 bench reps indicates that might be accurate.
5. Jones, his measurables are great but his speed sucks, run stuffing depth at ILB. ehhhhh, but late 5th round what can we expect and it's a very weak ILB class.
6. Mancz, good pick. Center help is needed and I like his size.
6. Mager, I don't know anything about this guy but since my daughter will be a Bobcat in a few months I like the pick. We do need developmental depth at CB and I'd address the position earlier but we've only got so many picks so sacrifices have to be made somewhere.
6. Gambrell, I know nothing about this guy.
7. Crockett, slow for a RB but I saw him on ESPN last night and like giving the guy a chance.

 

[Number19]

My only issue with Hunter, as someone who watched him at LSU, is that he has some stiff hips and I don't know how effective he would be in coverage - something Reed was able to do adequately. His sack numbers don't bother me, either, considering how conservative the LSU defense was under Chavis - which also makes him more than adept at setting the edge. In that I have absolute faith in his abilities.

EDIT: And nice mock! Always difficult to pull off a 7-rounder with adequate research on every player.

I tried really hard to find any kind of comment addressing Hunter's ability in pass defense and came up blank until a couple of days ago when I found a quote saying he had performed really well in the LB drills at his pro day. Looking back at old draft analysis for Reed, his hips were described as "only adequate". Thanks for your input.

 

[Number19]

1. Perriman, this seems like a little bit of a reach. He's got all the athletics but needs work on his routes. I'm not objecting to the pick, it just makes me a little nervous #16. Developmental pick with lots of upside.

I agree that this is a tad bit of a reach. But it came down to the fact that I couldn't ignore speed and what it means to the overall offensive plan. I'd be running him on slants and down the sidelines and some of those quick catch-and-run's until he developed a chemistry on other patterns. Let him clear out the underside for Lockett and the TE's, and Foster.

2. Hunter, another developmental pick with lots of upside. I like him in the 2nd. Clowney insurance.

My aim here was to, at a minimum, have no drop off in production from what we got from Reed. We'll know what we have by his second year.

3. Lockett, love this pick, could be the steal of the draft if available.

4. Sample, I don't know anything about the player, my only criticism is that I'd look for a FS instead of a SS. I might also look for some better quality O-line help in the 4th instead.

By the forth pick, I was beginning to really look at safeties and I wanted a free safety. But none really jumped out at me. When I got to the strong safeties, Sample did. There's a lot to make one cautious about the selection, but the guy has talent. I can really see him pushing Swearinger. If we drafted Oline here I wouldn't complain.

5. Sheperd, I'll pass on him. I read a critique of him a while back calling him just big, fat, and out of shape with no muscular definition. His 17 bench reps indicates that might be accurate.

I didn't find this in any of the scouting reports I read. There was one comment that he plays best at a lower weight around 325. He weighed 315 at the combine. I had my eye on several others at first, but then began to realize that these players were more suitable to a power blocking scheme. Shepherd was more of a zone blocking fit. And he's a guard, not a tackle. Give him a year in the weight room and he'll gain strength.

Take a look at our depth chart. We have no depth on the offensive line. As long as we draft for this need, I'll grant there may be other selections than the ones I chose.

5. Jones, his measurables are great but his speed sucks, run stuffing depth at ILB. ehhhhh, but late 5th round what can we expect and it's a very weak ILB class.

Again, I tried real hard to find an ILB in the mid-rounds that had pass coverage skills, that I could go with. I also looked at other positions. What it finally came down to is that Jones seemed slightly better than any others I was looking at at this spot. And like you observe, I too found it weak at this position.

6. Mancz, good pick. Center help is needed and I like his size.

Mancz kinda suprised me. I had overlooked him early on because of the injury question. He's coming off of the injury to his shoulder during the Shrine Game practices and this may have dropped him on the boards.

6. Mager, I don't know anything about this guy but since my daughter will be a Bobcat in a few months I like the pick. We do need developmental depth at CB and I'd address the position earlier but we've only got so many picks so sacrifices have to be made somewhere.

Mager is a small school player who was outstanding at his level of play. Has a lot of skills. I thought this was a good position to take a chance on small school talent and see how it pays off in a couple of years.

6. Gambrell, I know nothing about this guy.

Just a small school talent with a boat load of potential. Bottom of the draft is a good spot to take a chance on this kind of prospect.

7. Crockett, slow for a RB but I saw him on ESPN last night and like giving the guy a chance.

 

[Number19]

...7. Crockett, slow for a RB...

As I was writing this up, I was having the same kind of thoughts. But then I went and took a look at Blue's 40 time at the combine, and Crockett is a bit faster than Blue was. And I just now looked at Foster's 40 time and he's faster than Foster.

 

[infantrycak]

As I was writing this up, I was having the same kind of thoughts. But then I went and took a look at Blue's 40 time at the combine, and Crockett is a bit faster than Blue was. And I just now looked at Foster's 40 time and he's faster than Foster.

Foster was injured when he ran.

 

[Number19]

Good memory. He also performed poorly at Tennessee's pro-day, but that's understandable.