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NFL.com writers on 2014 Draft

Bucky Brooks Scout's take: Putting NFL draft analytics to the test
I've often wondered why analytics have been used prominently in the pre-draft evaluations in other major sports leagues, but haven't been fully incorporated into the scouting process in the NFL. The old-school mentality of scouts in pro football prompts decision makers to rely more on gut instincts and feel instead of statistical analysis when making player evaluations and comparisons.

That's why I initially resisted taking on a project that asked me to examine player comparisons based solely on the NFL Insight (a statistical database developed by NFL's IT department) examination of the empirical data gathered at the NFL Scouting Combine since 2003. While I certainly believe statistical analysis should play a role in evaluating players, I don't believe the numbers can accurately portray a prospect's talent or potential without factoring in key variables (scheme, opponent, weather conditions, etc.) that ultimately affect performance. Additionally, I believe the impact of pre-combine training has skewed the measurements in several drills, namely the 40-yard dash, pro-agility shuttle and three-cone drill. Thus, the combine numbers are no longer indicative of a prospect's pure speed or athleticism on the field.

Finally, I believe a prospect's DNA is actually revealed on game film. Astute evaluators are able to assess a player's talent, performance and overall potential by digging into the tape to see how well he has performed against elite competition. Although past performance is certainly not an accurate predictor of future results, it does provide a host of clues that allow scouts to make solid assessments on a player's long-term potential in the right environment.

With that as a backdrop, I would like to play a game of man vs. computer over the next week to test my evaluation skills against NFL Insight and the NFL Media research team. I will analyze their pro comparisons on a handful of prospects, and let you know where they were right or wrong on their assessments. Given the importance of the quarterback position, I believe it is only right that we start with two of the top quarterbacks in the 2014 class, Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles, to see what past prospects they're connected to based on their combine test results...
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TexansFTW said:
lol, this will be good.

The thing about man vs. machine is man will always have a built in excuse and he already named like 4 of them going into this.

But is he going to do any real comparisons between man vs. machine (analytics) or was that it right there? Just a 'nah, he doesn't really match up with those QBs with similar combine numbers'.
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I think analytics work well in baseball & basketball because the seasons are so long & include a shtload of games. By the time such trends are identified in football, the season is over.
 
Daniel Jeremiah
1 HOU
JADEVEON CLOWNEY DESOUTH CAROLINA

The buzz is building for Blake Bortles to land in this spot, but I'm holding to my belief that the Texans will take the best available talent and that's Clowney.

2 STL
GREG ROBINSON OTAUBURN

3 JAC
SAMMY WATKINS WRCLEMSON

4 CLE
JAKE MATTHEWS OTTEXAS A&M

5 OAK
BLAKE BORTLES QBCENTRAL FLORIDA

The Raiders quietly filled some holes in free agency, but they still need a long-term solution at the quarterback position.

6 ATL
KHALIL MACK OLBBUFFALO

7 TB
TAYLOR LEWAN OTMICHIGAN

8 MIN
JOHNNY MANZIEL QBTEXAS A&M

The Vikings have a strong running game that would complement Manziel's style of play.

9 BUF
MIKE EVANS WRTEXAS A&M

10 DET
JUSTIN GILBERT CBOKLAHOMA ST.

11 TEN
ANTHONY BARR OLBUCLA

12 NYG
ERIC EBRON TENORTH CAROLINA

13 STL
HA HA CLINTON-DIX FSALABAMA

14 CHI
TIMMY JERNIGAN NTFLORIDA ST.

15 PIT
ODELL BECKHAM WRLSU

16 DAL
AARON DONALD DTPITTSBURGH

17 BAL
CALVIN PRYOR FSLOUISVILLE

18 NYJ
BRANDIN COOKS WROREGON ST.

19 MIA
ZACK MARTIN OTNOTRE DAME

20 ARI
BRADLEY ROBY CBOHIO ST.

21 GB
C.J. MOSLEY ILBALABAMA

22 PHI
DARQUEZE DENNARD CBMICHIGAN ST.

23 KC
MARQISE LEE WRUSC

24 CIN
KYLE FULLER CBVIRGINIA TECH

25 SD
LOUIS NIX NTNOTRE DAME

26 CLE
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER QBLOUISVILLE

I still view Bridgewater as the top quarterback in this draft class, but he has failed to generate excitement among the personnel executives I've talked to. If he falls past the Titans at pick No. 11, I think it's realistic he could slide all the way down to this spot.

27 NO
DEE FORD DEAUBURN

28 CAR
KELVIN BENJAMIN WRFLORIDA ST.

29 NE
XAVIER SU'A-FILO OGUCLA

30 SF
JASON VERRETT CBTCU

31 DEN
RYAN SHAZIER OLBOHIO ST.

32 SEA
MORGAN MOSES OTVIRGINIA
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Daniel Jeremiah Updated
1 Clowney, Jadeveon DE South Carolina
2 Watkins, Sammy WR Clemson
3 Robinson, Greg OT Auburn
4 Mack, Khalil OLB Buffalo
5 Matthews, Jake OT Texas A&M

6 Barr, Anthony OLB UCLA
7 Evans, Mike WR Texas A&M
8 Gilbert, Justin CB Oklahoma St.
9 Mosley, C.J. ILB Alabama
10 Lewan, Taylor OT Michigan

11 Bridgewater, Teddy QB Louisville
12 Manziel, Johnny QB Texas A&M
13 Ebron, Eric TE North Carolina
14 Donald, Aaron DT Pittsburgh
15 Pryor, Calvin FS Louisville

16 Clinton-Dix, Ha Ha FS Alabama
17 Beckham, Odell WR LSU
18 Jernigan, Timmy DT Florida St.
19 Bortles, Blake QB Central Florida
20 Dennard, Darqueze CB Michigan St.

21 Cooks, Brandin WR Oregon St.
22 Martin, Zack OT Notre Dame
23 Lee, Marqise WR USC
24 Hyde, Carlos RB Ohio St.
25 Benjamin, Kelvin WR Florida St.

26 Shazier, Ryan OLB Ohio St.
27 Roby, Bradley CB Ohio St.
28 Nix III, Louis DT Notre Dame
29 Moses, Morgan OT Virginia
30 Hageman, Ra'Shede DT Minnesota

31 Ealy, Kony DE Missouri
32 Fuller, Kyle CB Virginia Tech
33 Ford, Dee DE Auburn
34 Tuitt, Stephon DE Notre Dame
35 Carr, Derek QB Fresno St.

36 Amaro, Jace TE Texas Tech
37 Verrett, Jason CB TCU
38 Landry, Jarvis WR LSU
39 Lawrence, Demarcus DE Boise St.
40 Easley, Dominique DT Florida

41 Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TE Washington
42 Adams, Davante WR Fresno St.
43 Kouandjio, Cyrus OT Alabama
44 Richardson, Paul WR Colorado
45 Ward, Jimmie SS Northern Illinois

46 Su'a-Filo , Xavier OG UCLA
47 Sankey, Bishop RB Washington
48 Thomas, Brandon G Clemson
49 Joyner, Lamarcus CB Florida St.
50 Borland, Chris ILB Wisconsin
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disaacks3 said:
I wonder if he'd make a financial wager than Manziel drops to #12? ...or that Bridgewater goes first? ...or that Carr drops to #35?

I'm also wondering what caused the Bortles to free-fall and Bridgewater to leap-frog in his mind?
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But isn't there a difference between the Mock Drafts and player ratings, this being the latter ?
 
disaacks3 said:
I wonder if he'd make a financial wager than Manziel drops to #12? ...or that Bridgewater goes first? ...or that Carr drops to #35?

I'm also wondering what caused the Bortles to free-fall and Bridgewater to leap-frog in his mind?
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There is a reason Daniel Jeremiah was fired from 3 NFL scouting jobs in 6 years and is now a B-Team TV journalist.
 
IDEXAN said:
But isn't there a difference between the Mock Drafts and player ratings, this being the latter ?
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Sure, but as I've pointed out before, if he has such wild swings in his top 50, it means he either A) Has done a piss-poor job of analysis previously, or...B) He's simply regurgitating talk from elsewhere to make "his" list.

Either way, it's a list to take with a large grain of salt.
 
disaacks3 said:
I wonder if he'd make a financial wager than Manziel drops to #12? ...or that Bridgewater goes first? ...or that Carr drops to #35?

I'm also wondering what caused the Bortles to free-fall and Bridgewater to leap-frog in his mind?
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In his previous top 50, he has Bridgewater ahead of Manziel at nine & 10 respectively. Both of them dropping two spots in his latest.

He had Derek Carr at 34, only dropping one spot. Bortles was at 18, he also dropped one spot to 19, not leap frogging anyone.
 
Daniel Jeremiah Top 50

1 Clowney, Jadeveon DE South Carolina
2 Watkins, Sammy WR Clemson
3 Robinson, Greg OT Auburn
4 Mack, Khalil OLB Buffalo
5 Matthews, Jake OT Texas A&M
6 Barr, Anthony OLB UCLA
7 Evans, Mike WR Texas A&M
8 Mosley, C.J. ILB Alabama
9 Gilbert, Justin CB Oklahoma St.
10 Lewan, Taylor OT Michigan
11 Bridgewater, Teddy QB Louisville
12 Manziel, Johnny QB Texas A&M
13 Ebron, Eric TE North Carolina
14 Donald, Aaron DT Pittsburgh
15 Pryor, Calvin FS Louisville
16 Clinton-Dix, Ha Ha FS Alabama
17 Beckham, Odell WR LSU
18 Jernigan, Timmy DT Florida St.
19 Martin, Zack OT Notre Dame
20 Bortles, Blake QB Central Florida
21 Dennard, Darqueze CB Michigan St.
22 Cooks, Brandin WR Oregon St.
23 Lee, Marqise WR USC
24 Hyde, Carlos RB Ohio St.
25 Shazier, Ryan OLB Ohio St.
26 Hageman, Ra'Shede DT Minnesota
27 Benjamin, Kelvin WR Florida St.
28 Roby, Bradley CB Ohio St.
29 Moses, Morgan OT Virginia
30 Fuller, Kyle CB Virginia Tech
31 Nix III, Louis DT Notre Dame
32 Ealy, Kony DE Missouri
33 Ford, Dee DE Auburn
34 Tuitt, Stephon DE Notre Dame
35 Carr, Derek QB Fresno St.
36 Verrett, Jason CB TCU
37 Amaro, Jace TE Texas Tech
38 Landry, Jarvis WR LSU
39 Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TE Washington
40 Lawrence, Demarcus DE Boise St.
41 Easley, Dominique DT Florida
42 Kouandjio, Cyrus OT Alabama
43 Ward, Jimmie SS Northern Illinois
44 Su'a-Filo , Xavier OG UCLA
45 Smith, Marcus DE Louisville
46 Robinson, Allen WR Penn St.
47 Richburg, Weston C Colorado St.
48 Breeland, Bashaud CB Clemson
49 Adams, Davante WR Fresno St.
50 James, Ja'Wuan OT Tennessee
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