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Mock Draft 1.0 Discussion
- Thread starter beerlover
- Start date
Hottoddie
Veteran
Mistril48 said:
Thanks for the kind words.
I looked at both, but decided that Tuck had so much more upside & you can't teach speed. You either have it, or you don't.
I was actually considering David Pollack, but he seems to not have much more upside. Mind you, he's still a very good player & will make some serious noise at the pro level.
My main concern with James is his durability & lack of consistency. I believe that his consistency is just a matter of maturity & that he'll eventually overcome that. However, his durability is a major concern for me. He missed the entire 2003 season & had nagging ankle injuries during the 2004 season. Another concern is that he only had one good year. Prior to last year, he was just an after thought to scouts. Is he for real, or just a flash in the pan. Too much of a boom or bust risk for me.
Merriman is an OLB. He's got a lot of talent & upside, but at 6'4" 245lbs, he may already be at his ideal playing weight & I was looking for a DE.
texansfan88
Rookie
well that shut fiddy upMistril48 said:
Fiddy
All Pro
haha...notexansfan88 said:
recent trends and players that havent performed have changed that
2002 Draft - William Green, 16th
T.J Duckett, 18th
2003 Draft - Willis McGahee, 23rd
Larry Johnson, 27th
2004 Draft - Steven Jackson, 24th
Chris Perry, 26th
Kevin Jones, 30th
The average draft position of a 1st round RB over the last three years has been 23rd. And a reason I think we have seen a drop in the draft position of RBs is because players like Clinton Portis, Julius Jones and Davis. Teams are now saying why should we spend a 1st round pick on a RB when we can try to get a player in the 2nd or later.
Green has turned out to be a bust, Duckett shares the load, Johnson only started getting carries when Holmes got hurt, Jackson and Jones looked like studs while Perry barely touched the ball this year.
Hottoddie
Veteran
DC_ROCK said:
I really wasn't looking for a TE. Detroit has 2 fairly good TE's in Stephen Alexander & Casey Fitzsimmons. With the return of Rogers to the receiving corps, a pass catching only TE isn't exactly a need position. With the return of Rogers & a year of experience for both Roy Williams & Kevin Jones, Detroit's offense should be much better this year.
Besides, even with the resigning of Shaun Rogers, Detroit should be in pretty good financial shape to make a run at Bubba Franks, if they want him.
Mistril48
Rookie
Not my intention. I don't think Fiddy is wrong at all. I'm just taking a broader look. Time will tell whether the last few years were a phase or a long term trend.texansfan88 said:
I'm not predicting yet, although this year's RB draft may be clearer after the Senior Bowl, combines, private work outs, FAs, etc. I won't put words in Fiddy's mouth saying whether he is predicting, or not. I think it would be fair to say that 3 RBs is a lot to absorb in the top 12 picks if not even 1 was drafted that high the last 3 years, but if all 3 end up valued as a Tomlinson, or James, it could happen.
I would point out that there weren't any WRs in the top ten of the 2002 draft and yet WRs went 2 and 3 in 2003 and 3 and 7 in 1004. In fairness, though, 3 years suggests a trend more than 1 year.
Another example would be LBs. I think there have been few early LBs the last few years because of talent, not a trend away from the value of LBs.
Mistril48
Rookie
Thanks for the effort on the analysis. I think it will be interesting to watch the evaluation of this group (Tuck, James, Merrimen, Pollock) through the draft process. As you point out, it's also interesting that some teams are looking at them as DEs and some as OLB.Hottoddie said:
ledzeppelin229
Hall of Fame
Mistril48 said:
Look at some of the guys on that list -
Thomas Jones,
Ron Dayne,
Curtis Enis,
Lawrence Phillips,
Tim Biatabutuka,
Ki-Jana Carter
Ricky Williams (though not because of lack of talent)
Not exactly what you want in the top 10. Jones and Dayne are the only ones there left in the league I think.
Of course, you could hit on an All-Pro like:
Tomlinson,
Faulk,
Bettis,
Taylor,
James,
or Lewis.
Hearst had a few seasons over 1000 yards, but 1000 doesn't mean a whole lot anymore and only 2 seasons exceeded 1200. Dunn has 3 over 1000. Not what I call worth the investment.
So you have 5 out of the league, a couple average RBs, Dayne riding the bench as far as the eye can see and Thomas Jones hasn't really proven his worth yet as 7th overall. Then the 6 that have actually proven themselves worth the pick. About 50/50 you get the RB you're looking for in the top 13. That's about the same % you're looking at in the later rounds with much less consequence if you're wrong. Hell, Wells has proven to be a more reliable RB than some of those guys.
I think teams have sort of learned their lesson as their have been fewer and fewer RBs picked in the top half of the first round.
ledzeppelin229
Hall of Fame
Are these guys really graded that much better than Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson? OLine and Defense are where playoff games are won, therefore I see the top D players and the better OL being priorities in the draft, not to mention the top QBs and WRs that will push them down some more. A top tier RB is important but teams don't have to go for them in the first round. and average RBs can look like a top tier RB with a solid OL.
Mistril48
Rookie
Question. Where would Willis McGahee have been drafted if he hadn't been injured? Wouldn't it have been higher? Weren't people thinking top 5 before the injury.ledzeppelin269 said:
I don't know how high the evaluations of these RBs will be yet, but I don't think we've seen the last of the RBs drafted in the top ten.
ledzeppelin229
Hall of Fame
I don't think we've seen the last of it either and McGahee could have very well gone in the top 5 and been a great pick. But the last decade or so of the top 13 that you presented makes it look about 50/50. Of course some of those guys didnt make it ebcause of character issues or being too slow and I think the only one in this class that falls under the latter category is Benson (according to some people). But I think people have bigger priorities than a top RB and the net effect will be that these guys go a little lower than people expect. But I've never claimed to know what I'm talking about.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
that was a good pick-up for the Cowboys (GM Hoth-Boy) as predicted by Texansfan 88-
11) Dallas Cowboys: Shawne Merrimen, DE Maryland
Anyone remember a guy by the name of John Abraham that came out of South Carolina as an OLB-DE tweener? Okay think that, but 5 times better, and you have Merrimen. He excelled on the same D-Line as Randy Starks last year and probably helped Starks become a dependable rookie in the NFL. Dallas needs defensive line help like none other. With Thomas Davis off the board, there's really no strong safety worth this spot to replace Darren Woodson.
let see if he follows his own adivce and takes-
12) San Diego Chargers: Jammal Brown, OT Oklahoma
Roman Oben is not the long term answer at right tackle. Brown has anchored one of the best Offensive lines in the country over the last 3 years and brings a lot of experience to the table that is valuable going to the NFL. Many feel that Brown isn't worth a pick this high, but with the combine workout, I believe he will be this pick without a doubt if Edwards is not here.
11) Dallas Cowboys: Shawne Merrimen, DE Maryland
Anyone remember a guy by the name of John Abraham that came out of South Carolina as an OLB-DE tweener? Okay think that, but 5 times better, and you have Merrimen. He excelled on the same D-Line as Randy Starks last year and probably helped Starks become a dependable rookie in the NFL. Dallas needs defensive line help like none other. With Thomas Davis off the board, there's really no strong safety worth this spot to replace Darren Woodson.
let see if he follows his own adivce and takes-
12) San Diego Chargers: Jammal Brown, OT Oklahoma
Roman Oben is not the long term answer at right tackle. Brown has anchored one of the best Offensive lines in the country over the last 3 years and brings a lot of experience to the table that is valuable going to the NFL. Many feel that Brown isn't worth a pick this high, but with the combine workout, I believe he will be this pick without a doubt if Edwards is not here.
I really like this mock thus far. Much better than a lot of the cookie cutter mocks I've seen on the net. GMs are doing their research and making some logical, although out of the box, decisions. I'm glad no one has used the rationale, "Jim Bob has to go here. Mel said he would." 
ComstockLode
Waterboy
That is an awesome trade by the vikings, that would help shore up there defense...
texasguy346
Mod Squad
Whoa whoa whoa....wait a minute. Did I just hear that the Vikings got their 1st Round pick in on time? 
All is not right in the world.
All is not right in the world.
ledzeppelin229
Hall of Fame
The Saints would be willing to move down in the first round, preferably still within the top 25 unless the right deal comes along.
ledzeppelin229
Hall of Fame
Mistril48 said:
A Tomlinson or a James definitely would, but these guys are unknowns at this point. The one thing that might push them up in the draft is that the draft isn''t exactly stocked with elite players, especially on offense. There's really only a handful of offensive players that truly deserve to go in the first round. This fact could push Cadillac and Ronnie Brown up in the draft, but I don't think it will have much of an effect on Benson if concerns about his speed turn out to be justified.
I think this draft looks pretty good on D to be honest. While only a few guys really jump out for the top half of the first round, there's a lot of solid picks in the late first/2nd/3rd rounds. It isn't bad at CB and S with guys like Jackson, Miller, Rogers, Jones, Browner moving up / Davis, Brimmer, Nicholson etc and I think Junior Rosegreen is an underrated player that could find his way higher than people expect. What's strange to me is that guys who were rated so highly as juniors last season have suddenly fallen down the draft pipe as seniors. David Pollack is the biggest example to me, as well as Jammal Brimmer.
TexasJedi
Veteran
Fiddy said:
I don't think it was that much of a reach, if a reach at all. I did consider, strongly, taking Rogers and would have been happy with him, but took Jackson because I think he could start right away, not that Rogers couldn't. I know that's not saying much considering the Chiefs defense. I think it also may help that he practiced against Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston, plus he has some versatility given that he has played some safety.
I looked at Browner too, but he is a bit raw, and the Chiefs need help now. I also considered seeking a trade down given the number of quality corners available, but in the words of John McClain, decided not to try and get cute. Given the choice I would have preferred Jones over Jackson or Rogers.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
beerlover said:Now that the Superbowl match-up is set, do the Steelers get the 30th pick instead of #32?
28 San Diego 12-4 .477
29 Indianapolis 12-4 .500
30 Pittsburgh 15-1 .484
31S Philadelphia 13-3 .453
32S New England 14-2 .492
ps. nice work by all you would be GM's
draft selection order still needs amended for accuracy.....so far everyone seems to be having fun & keeping on track in a timely manner with solid takes. Great job to Vinny & Fiddy for keeping things updated. At this pace the 1st round will be completed well before the Superbowl, since the Patriots are 6 1/2 point favorites & defending Superbowl champs I suggest order as posted above. thanks y'all
Hottoddie
Veteran
Vinny said:
Vinny,
Check page 3 of this thread. I put one up & made what I believe are the right corrections for the picks that weren't settled at the time Draft Blitz.com posted it on their site.
However, it doesn't reflect the trades made in our mock thus far, or yesterday's game results.
Vinny
shiny happy fan
I think I have it right. I am color coding the trades so that each trade partner has the same color key. I put it in the prospect thread that is pinned to the top of this forum. Let me know if its funky. Thanks for the help.
http://www.houstontexans.com/fan_zone/messageboards/showpost.php?p=77572&postcount=4
http://www.houstontexans.com/fan_zone/messageboards/showpost.php?p=77572&postcount=4
S
SESupergenius
Guest
Is there a Bills owner?
texan279
Hall of Fame
Oh, ok. Well the reason I picked Cadillac is because Bettis might not be back next year, and Staley just finished his 8th season and has had some injury issues and to give the steelers running game a different dimension. With Bettis and Staley you have more size and power running, I figured Cadillac would bring a little more speed to the run game and if Bettis does not return they will need another RB anyway. The only other spot I could think of the Steelers would need help at is at the CB spot.
Well they could use a TE imo. as for CB.. that WAS a need for them.. but the changes with the 5 yard rule has actually made their CB set fairly strong with their zone coverage.
As for Cadillac.. the Steelers have been using a power running game for more than a decade now.. maybe longer than that, id have to check. Anyway.. I dont see them changing their smashmouth ideals and going with a speedy RB who is less likely to wear down an opposing defense.
jmo
As for Cadillac.. the Steelers have been using a power running game for more than a decade now.. maybe longer than that, id have to check. Anyway.. I dont see them changing their smashmouth ideals and going with a speedy RB who is less likely to wear down an opposing defense.
jmo