All the more reason to lock him down this year and not wait until next season to do a long term deal.
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Mario movement rumors (MERGED) Signs with Buffalo $100 million
- Thread starter gafftop
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All the more reason to lock him down this year and not wait until next season to do a long term deal.
^^^^ This! ^^^^^
I hope Mario stays, but if it's going to have a negative affect (money wise, player wise, etc...) on the TEAM, then I hope he goes. I don't say this lightly either because I've always liked Mario, even from the time the Texans drafted him over Bush and Young. I just hope he realizes what a good thing he has here and decides that it's not just all about the money and stays.
Not that I dont agree with you because I do,
But the Raiders would rather pay a 32 yr old healthy Seymour over an injury prone younger MW.
Seymour has had 0 major injuries over the course of his stellar ring filled career.
badboy
Hall of Fame
Or they realize Mario would not sign with them
GP
Go Texans!
I'm trying to find all these posts where people say they actively WANT him gone.
Can you find those for me? I can't find them anywhere.
What I can find, however, is many posts that take on a position of skepticism about whether the franchise can sustain what he will likely ask for in his new contract.
GP
Go Texans!
So you think Bob will franchise him?
That's a whole new dynamic, IMO. Would Bob franchise him, or try to make the offer and see if Mario takes Bob's new contract? If he got franchise tagged, how does affect Mario's motivation to play 100% for the Texans in 2012??? We saw how it affected Dunta Robinson, he was pedestrian and had an attitude all year.
I dunno. I think this will be a time where Bob declines to use the franchise tag, and if he does...he'll use it on someone else. I foresee Bob making Mario a generous offer and then letting the chips fall where they may.
dalemurphy
Hall of Fame
Hint: Search on mussop or dalemurphy
As I have said numerous times, I'd be fine with him getting a contract somewhere in the Antonio Smith to Jonathan Joseph range. Beyond that, I don't like it. Once we starting getting at/beyond Charles Johnson numbers (6yrs and $72 million), I think it would be a very bad and very destructive move for the franchise.
I would much rather allocate our resources to ensure this year's defense remains largely intact moving forward beyond 2013... You know, the guys that were on the field when the defense was utterly dominant. Also, I'd like to use some of those resources to get a quality Wide Receiver in free agency, perhaps add a solid, veteran corner back, and replace Mario with quality depth at OLB.
That's not what THIS says...
You don't want him here and you've made that plain. You're not saying we need an upgrade. You've said our defense is better off without him.
I really have to concede that the financial ramifications of signing Mario to a huge contract risks losing other key pieces to our team. That's not good business. So obviously it remains to be seen how many and which of our free agents we can afford to keep. I hope Mario is among them. You do not. I'd like to see how much better this pass rush can be with Mario in the rotation. You said you think it'll get worse (how else can one interpret "we're better off without him"?).
I was really messing with GP when he said he couldn't find any posts where people say they actively WANT him gone. They aren't as plentiful as the "jacoby must go" posts, but they're out there.
chicagotexan2
Easterby = Little Finger/Cal = Fredo Corleone
Right on. Don't break the bank or eff up our cap for an oft injured lb. he'd help the d but he's not worth a huge deal when you consider he's injury prone and the d didn't loose too much without him. I'd love to franchise him and deal him for picks, I doubt we'd get two first rounders but a couple of first day picks would be fair.
DX-TEX
#TomSavageDontCare
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
Even a single third round pick for him would be more than we would get by him walking. I would be happy with a 2nd for him if he's just gonna go to the highest bidder. I expect a team with lots of cap space will give him a crazy Peppers type offer.
GP
Go Texans!
I was really messing with GP when he said he couldn't find any posts where people say they actively WANT him gone. They aren't as plentiful as the "jacoby must go" posts, but they're out there.
I think the point I was making is that the most logical route to go, as a fan, is to hope that the two sides make a deal that isn't POTENTIALLY bad for the Texans long-term.
I happen to think Mario's agent will structure a proposal toward McNair that is maybe a notch or two more than what the Texans feel comfortable in doing, knowing that some other team will jump at that offer...leading to a bidding war between multiple teams, driving up the cost even more.
Will Bob take the bait on such a deal? Will his sentimental side win out, even in the face of increased success on defense with what seems to be a SYSTEM that fits its players every bit as much as Kubiak's SYSTEM fits his own guys on offense? Who knows.
What I don't like is when someone tries to divide people on here and paint with a broad brush. Even though Dale and Mussop are vocal in their opposition to Mario Williams, they have their points and I agree with SOME of those points.
When someone says "Quite a few people on here," it's as if there's two diametrically opposed factions struggling for supremacy on this issue. Which is just not true. Most people, the vast majority, would be OK with him remaining a Texans player as long as the money doesn't get too goofy.
Dale, that was some rough sentiments about being glad Mario was on I.R.....I'm only hoping that was extreme hyperbole and you were swept up in the moment or something. LOL. Wowzers.
Cerberus
Hall of Fame
Actually, he was playing through injury most of last season which is why his numbers were down, yet he still made the pro-bowl . . . err, I mean the popularity bowl.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
The last info I got from gil brandt was the texans have 36m in cap room. They could cut walters,lienhart,and cody to push that to 45m.They could do a deal for mario(10.5),foster(7.5m) , meyers(4.5) and still have about 20m worth of cap space to resign brown,cushing early and be active in free agent market. Why posters don't understand is beyond me.
The thing about it, is that any deal will be POTENTIALLY bad.. some folks will spin a 5 year $24 Million contract as bad or too much. We've already got half the board believing it's Mario or Arian, or Mario or Myers... or Mario or a 2WR....
We don't even know what Mario's cap number for 2011 was much less where we stand concerning the 2012 cap.
BullNation4Life
All Pro
Didn't the Raiders trade their 2 first round picks to the Bengals for Palmer? I don't think they have the picks to trade, they would have to sign him outright, wouldn't they?
GP
Go Texans!
The numbers are all over the place.
Back in the mid-to-late part of the reg season, the franchise tag amount on Mario was anywhere from $16 to $22 million depending on what guy on TV was spouting off "his numbers."
We won't know all those amounts on all those players, there's just no way to know what contracts are going to cost what...which players might get better offers and leave for greener pastures. Etc., etc.
But I can almost guarantee that Mario will seek the best offer he can get out there, and it won't be cheap enough to retain all the guys we need to retain. Maybe it can be done, it just seems like there's going to be some flood waters down in Texas (as my good friend, Stevie Ray Vaughn, once said) and all of the telephone lines will be down. We'll be trying to call our sweet baby, and we won't hear a single sound. If you catch my drift....
GP
Go Texans!
See, Kuharsky has the tag at just a shade under $17 million. The $22 million figure is out there, as well. This is just what i was saying in my previous post.
That's why I say I don't think we can fully depend upon ANYTHING that we're reading until the talks start and we see which way the wind is blowing. I happen to think the wind will be blowing in from the Gulf, pushing the Mario front north and out of Texas.
I take it this $36M number is based the expiration of current contracts that ended this season...??
dalemurphy
Hall of Fame
That's not what THIS says...
You don't want him here and you've made that plain. You're not saying we need an upgrade. You've said our defense is better off without him.
I really have to concede that the financial ramifications of signing Mario to a huge contract risks losing other key pieces to our team. That's not good business. So obviously it remains to be seen how many and which of our free agents we can afford to keep. I hope Mario is among them. You do not. I'd like to see how much better this pass rush can be with Mario in the rotation. You said you think it'll get worse (how else can one interpret "we're better off without him"?).
I was really messing with GP when he said he couldn't find any posts where people say they actively WANT him gone. They aren't as plentiful as the "jacoby must go" posts, but they're out there.
I've argued that Mario's absence allowed a chemistry to develop on the defense, turning a good defense into a great one. I have also said it is a theory, only. I acknowledge that it is possible the defense would've improved at the same rate with him active. I would rather have Connor Barwin playing WOLB than Mario. However, I'm not convinced Brooks Reed will become an excellent player. And, I certainly am concerned about our depth if Jesse Nading makes the team.
You can't separate the worth of a player on the field with the cost of the player against the cap. Those things are tied together. When Mario's $18 million is on the field playing disinterested, it isn't only that he is not make a play but also that the offense has to rely on Jacoby Jones instead of a legitimate wide receiver.
So, yeah, when I see a player who is consuming 15% of the team's cap on the field not giving effort, I may conclude that I don't want the jerk on the team. Now, if he is only consuming 5% of the cap, then his laziness/disinterest isn't quite as grating. Not only that, but the coaching staff won't handle a guy that makes $7 million per year the same way as a guy that makes $18 million per year. The guy making $18 million will start no matter what... The guy making $7 million can get benched.
dalemurphy
Hall of Fame
Please stop!! That is not true! Cutting those guys does not eliminate their impact on the salary cap. Walter's cap charge would more than account for any savings the Texans may receive cutting Leinart and Cody.
Please read any number of a 1000 posts, articles, etc... discussing how signing bonuses affect the salary cap when players are cut before their contracts end. One more time:
If Kevin Walter signed a deal like this:
$10 million signing bonus/ 5 year deal for a total of $25 mil
year one salary = $1 mill
year two salary = $2 mil
year three salary=$3 mil
year four salary = $4 mil
year five salary = $5 mil
If the Texans cut Walter before the third year, the final three years of his prorated signing bonus would count against this year's cap, even though he isn't on the team and the team has avoided the final three years salaries... So, the Texans would have a cap charge of $6 million, in that scenario, without having Walter's services.
also, Kevin Walter still doesn't have an "s" in his name, FYI.
This is the issue.
There are just too dang many unknowns to make a decent assessment. I've seen franchise numbers for Mario that range from 18M to 24M. No one seems to know exactly how much cap room we'll have to work with. No one except Mario and his agent know how little they'll take to allow him to stay a Texans or if he is, as some have said have said, is just itching to see what he can get on the FA mkt. To that end, no one knows which teams are interested in Mario and how much they'll be willing to pony up to get him.
Other teams are making roster moves to clear up cap space... I wish the Texans would make a damned move. This is driving me nuts.
I want to keep Mario in the fold. But if the money says he leaves, that's business.
But I tell you what, if Foster gets away from us, I'm gonna go full blown....
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
Yep, unlike the nba where there is a cap hold, the nfl expirings are there without renouncing anyone.
Dalemurphy, they gave walter 11m guarantee, but the gave 7m guarantee in yr 1 and the other 4 this yr in a guarantee. That means no proration and paid in cash vs credit card. Before I tell you wrong, I will catch gil brandt or pat kirwin on nfl radio.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Yes, please stop and I am not saying you don't know quite a bit about the cap.
Exactly. The structure matters and Walter was paid his guaranteed money in the first two years. His initial bonus was paid as a roster bonus so there is no proration. His other guaranteed money was in salary for seasons already played - no proration.
Plus there is often bad reporting. Again as an example Peyton's contract is commonly reported to include as guaranteed money the $28 mil OPTION/roster bonus which is upcoming. There is nothing actually guaranteed about it other than everyone assumed they would want him to stick around.
Hint: Search on mussop or dalemurphy
Show me where I have said that.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
I know. There are a lot of "repected" posters who really don't know how contracts work. I'm not saying I'm captain capologist,but I can fire gil brandt or pat kirwin a email and get real answers. I shot kirwin an email about mario and a legit,market value,cap friendly deal. The post earlier I had, kirwin and brandt both replied the smart teams have been guaranteed 1st 3yrs of the contract to stay out of dead money.
I posted for mario 6yrs 72m with 36m guaranteed in the 1st 3 yrs.
1st- 5m sal 5.5m roster bonus
2nd 6m sal 6.5m r. Bonus
3rd 6m sal 7m. r. Bonus
That's real market value money. The next 3 yrs are more salary because if released for injuries or under perormance, the team would owe him 0. The roster bonus can be due or sructered in the form of workout and report due say prior to free agency.
4th 10m sal 2m roster bonus
5th. 9m sal 3m r bonus
6th 8m sal. 4m r bonus
This protects the club either way and gives them flexibility. There isn't a team in this league who can cut a sub 30 yr old before yr 3 without being penalized. In football, the injury risk is always there for every player. Dumerville got paid and then was out for the yr. Peterson got paid then wrecked his knee. Charles did the same.
To be straight about it, I thought your thing was that we should have traded Mario last year. Not that you hate him or want him gone no matter what. Now it's too late to get anything for him via trade. Is that fair? Or do I have you mixed up with someone else?
Now you have called out many Mario supporters in unflattering terms (I'll admit sometimes they earned it for twisting the facts). And you have stated that you believe that the Brooks/Barwin combo is better than the Williams/Barwin combo. And that's fine too, because, like Dale's opinion, it's just another one I don't completely share.
But the fact that we can even make the comparison and have the argument (and not be laughed off the message board) means with the three of them we have great depth in our front seven (four if you count Brahman). That's depth I'd rather not lose.
dalemurphy
Hall of Fame
I'm not pretending to know what Walter's contract was. I was giving a hypothetical example. What I do know is that almost every time the Texans have cut any player with a year or more remaining on their contract, they have incurred a cap hit. The idea that Walter, Cody, and JJ would be cut this year and the team would salve $9 million under the cap is ludicrous. It's very difficult to argue the details of contracts that we simply don't have access to. What I'm bristling to is the idea being pushed that the Texans can just cut any and all Texans under contract without suffering cap ramifications. That is nonsense. I've been on sportstrac and have seen how it lists Texans' contracts as if they never give signing bonuses. However, I think sportstrac is hopelessly in error based on 10 years of Texans history and 20 years of NFL history under the salary cap.
GP
Go Texans!
We were bumping right up against the cap in 2011, though.
And although the amount reportedly increases in 2012...what will Mario's contract asking price be and what will we pay Arian Foster, as well as other free agents we need to retain PLUS what free agents we'd try to bring into the fold for 2012?
To me, all those things add up to present what should be a tight squeeze for us in 2012...to satisfy the hunger of all of our own FAs plus any new ones we might want to bring in.
What's frustrating is to see how this is being spun into a situation where the board has two people: (A) Those who aren't sweating it and think it all gets done, and (B) Those who think Mario has to be gone or Arian has to be gone.
To me, people are just speculating that Mario's asking price COULD be so high that it presents problems working other people's deals. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen, but it is still a possibility. And it is also a possibility that it all gets done and there;s no reason to sweat.
In short: It's just message board banter, plain and simple.
GP
Go Texans!
Maybe the problem here is that IF we're going to pay Mario to stay, he has to be this ultra-elite defensive player that completely takes over games on a consistent basis?
The hallmark of the Wade Phillips 2011 Texans defense was that you never knew which guy(s) were going to dominate and influence the game's momentum. One game it would be Barwin. Another game it would be Reed. Another game it would Smith. Another game it would be Watt. Another game it would be Mario (early in the year, before he was injured).
Maybe the problem is that the whole Next Man Up situation was not just for the sake of injuries, but also a defining trait of the defense as a whole? Maybe the quibbling is due to how the defense did pretty good without Mario...so why would Mario be paid like a rock star when guys like Reed, Watt, and Barwin aren't being paid like rock stars and therefore we could save the money and go get other pieces to the puzzle?
Wade Phillips' defense has created this argument, IMO. He did such a masterful job of utilizing what we had, bringing in two key free agents, and bringing in quality 1st and 2nd rounders in Watt and Reed that it's complicating the idea that Mario Williams is a key factor in our success. Is he? Because if he's here as a way to make sure we have good depth, maybe Wade can draft that depth in the draft? Not saying he can, just playing devil's advocate.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
I think at this point we can assume the Raiders gave up a 2012 1st and a 2013 2nd for Palmer.
Considering they owe Belicheck their first bord child, I doubt they have the picks lol
Not entirely true.
1st, KDub is making more money than Jacoby Jones. If we have a problem with the #2 WR spot, let's talk about how much money we have invested in a 30 year old, not very fast WR.
2nd, Jacoby's role can & should be filled with an inexpensive late round draft pick or an UDFA.
3rd, players like Plaxico Buress were signed for less than Jacoby Jones.... I think Ted Ginn Jr was as well. We paid too much for the production we're getting from Jacoby, but we didn't pay him #2 WR money. Here's last years list of WRs by receiving yards, just saying, we didn't go cheap on WR because of Mario's contract.
I like that. His cap number in 2012 would be $10.5M which is at least $6M cheaper than we believe his 2011 cap number was.
2013 & 2014 his cap number would be $12.5M & $13M which is still lower than his 2011 cap number.
The thing, though, is that some people are going to be tied up with the $12M/yr average...... which I think is fair for a player like Mario.
04-19-2011 #131
gafftop
All Pro
Join Date: Apr 2006
Age: 54
Posts: 976
Rep Power: 602 The Mario Issue, Let's look at it in another way
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Simplified possible Mario outcomes next season:
1. Plays good when healthy but has some type of nagging injury as last two years
2. Does not adapt to 3-4.
3. Plays great in his contract year
In 1 we get probably nothing or do we get compensation because we do not sign as we did with Dunta. Last pick in draft. LOL
In 2 same as 1
In 3, do you want to give Mario say 20+ million for the next 5 years based on his last year of performance. Say the cap is 120 million. If you divide in half, half for offense and half for defense, do you really want to give Mario 33% of all money for defense? I sure don't. DO YOU?
In reality probably no player is worth that large of % of cap. Maybe Peyton or Brady etc QBs of that caliber may be the only position that warrants that and even then it is a crap shoot because of injury.
The above is why I think IF you can get a good deal in a trade this year you do it.
It is very likely that other teams view Mario in the same way and will give nothing for him this year. I don't know. But if there are teams out that that covet him I think it should seriously be considered by the Texans.
I don't think Aso is a good deal based on reasoning above.
Just my opinion.
I was the one that wanted to trade him before last year started and get something for him because no matter what happened during the year we were going to be in this situation. I will stand behind what I said back in April 2011.
The consistently good teams make the choices that increase the overall value of the team. I saw that for the first time last year when the Texans pulled the trigger on Joseph and Manning and let Aso go. In years past I think the Texans would have played the fool and just waited and then got nothing.
I think or hope they tried to address the Mario situation before the season started but were not able to get anything done for one reason or another and decided just to play out the season and see what happened. I feel that is why they might of stuck him on IR so quickly because they knew it was over with Mario. It will be interesting to hear what really happened when all this is settled.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
Of course 12 mill a year is fair, the problem is it's not market value. Mario is the defensive headliner of this free agent class, he will get attention from ESPN, SI and the rest of the media. There will be a lot of buzz and hype about where he goes, probably the way Peppers and Haynesworth were covered. He's going to get a much better deal than salary and roster bonuses. He deserves a good signing bonus at the very least, plus guaranteed money around 35-45 mill.
The dude's going to get paid, just probably not by us, unless we tag him. I think people need to be ready for Mario to go, as I think he will get a Peppers deal that the Texans won't be able to match. Peppers got paid at the age of 29, Mario is 26. Some team with cap space to spend will say they want him to be their DE for the next 6-7 years and be happy give him what he wants.
Jackie Chiles
Veteran
Payback for stealing our 2nd and 3rd round picks for Philip Buchanon.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
In the deal I proposed, he's getting 36m guaranteed. See, understand this, its the guaranteed money vs the funny money agents like to put on the deal. Even we say he signed 6 yr 72m with 36m in guarantees, they can structure that to the 1st 3yrs are guarantees.Its not hard at all. The same can be done for foster. Go and look at how the eagles structure contracts and get the idea on how they always have room to resign their players and go get a big nam free agent.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
Your money would be well spent by someone else. When was the last time chargers have been active in free agency?Theyre a cash strapped team with a not well like gm. I'm going to check their cap situation,but they're never players in free agency. The raiders are in cap hell too. The cutting of routte accelerated his g money and theyre in trouble.
GP
Go Texans!
Ah, yes. Astute observation good sir.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
I'm not arguing about how to structure the money, I'm well aware of how to structure the deal to help the team, what I'm saying is that 36 mill guaranteed with no signing bonus is lowballing Mario. His market value will be higher than that. You can slice it any way you want, but 12 mill average over 6 years isn't going to cut it. The Bills, Bucs, Bengals, Browns, Rams, Seahawks, etc etc, have tens of millions to spend in cap room and they know that in 2013 they need to be close to the cap limit. They will be attempting to outbid the Texans for Mario and other teams for talent because they have the money to do that.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
Do you really understand salary structure? I mean, I'm not trying to be a turd, but I think you're missing alot here. He doesnt have to get a signing bonus with a guaranteed 1st 3 yrs of a deal. The deal i put together means Mario will get 36m regardless of his injuries,play or whatever. A signing bonus is pretty much the same, but its using the credit card method vs cash. Signing bonus is used as upfront money just like the guarantee money. Signing bonus money can be prorated over the contract. A guy like mario, its better to just guarantee the 1st 3 yrs so that the team doesnt have dead money. Let me be clear, if he makes it to open market, he's gone.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
Thats not gonna happen. He's speculating. They could in , but i doubt they do irt.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
I'm well aware of all that, but when big name guys like him re-sign, they tend to get signing bonuses for three reasons, 1) it's a huge payday for the player and his agent, 2) it is up front guaranteed money that the team can't recoup, 3) it makes the team less likely to cut or trade the player due to future cap hits being accelerated - which often leads to teams keeping a player 1 or 2 more years than they want to.
I'm sure the team would love to avoid giving him a signing bonus, as any smart GM would for any player, but the reality is that guys like him get signing bonuses, even if it's only 6-10 mill. Sure that money counts towards the guaranteed money of the total contract, but there are other factors to consider.
GP
Go Texans!
Bucs have a TON of money to spend. Makes a person wonder if that's why they wanted to interview Wade Phillips in the first place...the possibility that they land Wade Phillips and he can recruit Mario Williams to join him with the Bucs. Just my contribution to the Conspiracy Theory Of The Day quotas.
Mario is gone. Unless Bob gets super-freaky on us. Which is always a possibility.