Lance Zierlein Mock Draft 2.0

[Honoring Earl 34]

My bad; I did know about Kiffin when I looked things up some time ago; just slip my mind today.

I'll have some time tomorrow and we can revisit this.

Two things I know is that:
Jarrett and Williams, one guy had multiple DUI arrests and was cut, the other let his weight ballooned up to 270 lbs at one time.

Receivers are a different breed .that can go anywhere from AJ to TO . The great ones can focus to go along with their skills .

I think next to QBs , WR get blasted the most by defenders . RBs get hit a bunch but know that's just part of the job . A WR has to be able to focus knowing he's going to get smashed .

 

[76Texan]

Receivers are a different breed .that can go anywhere from AJ to TO . The great ones can focus to go along with their skills .

I think next to QBs , WR get blasted the most by defenders . RBs get hit a bunch but know that's just part of the job . A WR has to be able to focus knowing he's going to get smashed .

Alright Earl, so I looked into Dooley's background a little bit.
It doesn't look like he had any track record with his receivers getting drafted into the NFL to speak of, so we can't judge these receivers (Hunter, Rodgers, and Patterson) on the program.

Now, if we take into account the post that playoff made in another thread, about all the problems these Vols players seem to have (including the QB Tyler Bray), we could put up a red flag and ask the questions as to why and what happened.

 

[Nawzer]

I wouldn't mind seeing Eifert in a Texans uniform next season. It'll benefit a noodle armed QB like Schaub who throws floaters often. It'll give him a bigger target in the middle of the field. Eifer probably has a bigger catch radius than your run of the mill receiver and also he would give us that big target in the end zone.

 

[beerlover]

I wouldn't mind seeing Eifert in a Texans uniform next season. It'll benefit a noodle armed QB like Schaub who throws floaters often. It'll give him a bigger target in the middle of the field. Eifer probably has a bigger catch radius than your run of the mill receiver and also he would give us that big target in the end zone.

like a security blanket

 

[steelbtexan]

Do Curtis Conway an J.K. McKay qualify as productive USC WR's? LOL

 

[Honoring Earl 34]

Alright Earl, so I looked into Dooley's background a little bit.
It doesn't look like he had any track record with his receivers getting drafted into the NFL to speak of, so we can't judge these receivers (Hunter, Rodgers, and Patterson) on the program.

Now, if we take into account the post that playoff made in another thread, about all the problems these Vols players seem to have (including the QB Tyler Bray), we could put up a red flag and ask the questions as to why and what happened.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/players/_/position/wr

 

[Rey]

I changes my mind. Just watched some clips of eifert and I'd be behind this pick.

Looks like a more consistent target than Most of the receivers I've seen.

 

[mussop]

I changes my mind. Just watched some clips of eifert and I'd be behind this pick.

Looks like a more consistent target than Most of the receivers I've seen.

Welcome to the dark side.

 

[Tailgate]

If Posey had not torn his damn achilles Eifert would be getting much more love round here. If we do end up with Eifert, and Posey can come back 100%... its a win across the board.

 

[beerlover]

Texans don't like to pay for this position. Owen signed @ discount following his acl. Dreessen was let go now Casey. I don't see it

 

[Rey]

Texans don't like to pay for this position. Owen signed @ discount following his acl. Dreessen was let go now Casey. I don't see it

I can see it if they basically make him receiver #2...

He's not a homerun threat or a catch and run guy, but he can make big plays down the field...

I don't think it fits what Kubiak wants to do offensively, but if he was willing to change it up a little I could see it working.

 

[Brisco_County]

I can see it if they basically make him receiver #2...

He's not a homerun threat or a catch and run guy, but he can make big plays down the field...

I don't think it fits what Kubiak wants to do offensively, but if he was willing to change it up a little I could see it working.

A potential Shannon Sharpe?

 

[Blake]

I like the idea of Eifert in round 1. Daniels is getting up there in age, and unfortunately, Graham, is getting his head hit around like a pinata. And dynamic tight ends are pretty dang valuable in this new NFL.

We still have ammo to move near the top of round 2 if a guy like Hunter, or Terrance Williams is there. Then we have our third rounder for a brand new ILB like Bostic.

 

[Rey]

A potential Shannon Sharpe?

Let me clarify...

I didn't mean that eifert doesnt fit....I mean to say that I don't think kubiak wants to play without a field stretcher...

I'm not making a strong statement either way, but just thinking through out loud how the offense would look if eifert was drafted. Talent wise, he definitely looks worth the pick.

 

[Brisco_County]

Let me clarify...

I didn't mean that eifert doesnt fit....I mean to say that I don't think kubiak wants to play without a field stretcher...

I'm not making a strong statement either way, but just thinking through out loud how the offense would look if eifert was drafted. Talent wise, he definitely looks worth the pick.

When I first saw mocks of Eifert going to the Texans, I was incredulous. After kicking it around for a few days, it's starting to make sense. I think we can get a field stretcher in the 2nd.

 

[76Texan]

I like Eifert a lot, but guys like Levine Toilolo or Joseph Fauria would bring much better value between the 5th and 7th round.

 

[Playoffs]

I like Eifert a lot, but guys like Levine Toilolo or Joseph Fauria would bring much better value between the 5th and 7th round.

Related to Christian?

 

[76Texan]

Related to Christian?

His uncle.

 

[mussop]

I like Eifert a lot, but guys like Levine Toilolo or Joseph Fauria would bring much better value between the 5th and 7th round.

There's a good chance neither gets drafted but they offer better value?

 

[76Texan]

There's a good chance neither gets drafted but they offer better value?

You mean you've seen all 32 teams' draft boards?

 

[mussop]

You mean you've seen all 32 teams' draft boards?

You yourself stated they would be good value in the 5th to 7th round. If there is a chance a guy will be around in the seventh round there is a chance he won't get drafted. How can a guy that could be around in the 7th round bring better value than a guy who is rated by nearly every expert a sure fire first round pick and the best at his position in the entire draft?

anxiously awaiting reply.

 

[Mr teX]

I swear, if we draft a TE with the 27th pick overall I'm gonna purchase season tickets to the Texans just to boo the **** out of Kubiak...

 

[76Texan]

You yourself stated they would be good value in the 5th to 7th round. If there is a chance a guy will be around in the seventh round there is a chance he won't get drafted. How can a guy that could be around in the 7th round bring better value than a guy who is rated by nearly every expert a sure fire first round pick and the best at his position in the entire draft?

anxiously awaiting reply.

I was thinking you might misunderstand what I was trying to say, and it looks like you did.

There are two ways to look at this.

1. The value of a pick depends on the round he's selected.
You see a lot of boards rated them between 5th to 7th (and possibly UDFA), but you might not see that both were valued as high as the second round.
For mock draft purpose, let's say I'm able to pick them late in the sixth or somewhere in the seventh ('cause people in the Mock Draft are doubtful about them for some reasons), but they get selected in the 4th or 5th round in the real draft. It means that I get more value for the picks than you guys thought.

2. Another way to look at it is comparable "added value" for the position in a late round vs selecting Eifert at #27 in Kubiak's system, at least in the first year.
With two TEs already on board with receiving skills, Eifert isn't going to see that many targets to justify his first round status.
If you think Eifert will see more targets than Graham, I don't know what to tell you.

At the moment, the Texans need a good blocking TE; both Toilolo and Fauria are at least as capable as Eifert, if not better. On top of that, they are both great red zone weapons due to their size. They have already shown they are capable in that role. Eifert at #27 isn't tremendously better than them in these two tasks to justify the spot he's picked in.

Instead, the Texans can use that #1 pick on another position of need, providing the team with other value to make it better, be it a receiver or a pass rusher, whatever.

 

[76Texan]

Concerning Toilolo; he's an underclassmen who seeked the opinion of the draft advisory board. He then consulted with his parents and his coaches before making the decision.

It's logical to think that he received at least a decent grade.

Regarding Fauria, I read an interview in which he was quoted directly as hearing at least one scout saying that he might sneak into the second round.

 

[SteveSlaton20]

I swear, if we draft a TE with the 27th pick overall I'm gonna purchase season tickets to the Texans just to boo the **** out of Kubiak...

would you be upset if that TE was another Gronk?

 

[76Texan]

In 38 games, Eifert had 11 TDs.
In 30 games, Toilolo had 10 (don't forget he was behind Fleener and Ertz, and was used more as a blocking TE.)

Fauria surpassed Eifert in just one year with 12 (and a total of 20 in his career spanning 40 games.)

 

[ChampionTexan]

I swear, if we draft a TE with the 27th pick overall I'm gonna purchase season tickets to the Texans just to boo the **** out of Kubiak...

Pretty sure Bob would be okey dokey with that.

 

[SteveSlaton20]

In 38 games, Eifert had 11 TDs.
In 30 games, Toilolo had 10 (don't forget he was behind Fleener and Ertz, and was used more as a blocking TE.)

Fauria surpassed Eifert in just one year with 12 (and a total of 20 in his career spanning 40 games.)

In 2011, Eifert had a Sophomore QB in Tommy Rees throwing to him, who got benched for a freshman QB last year, Everett Golson. His freshmen season, he had Dayne Crist throwing to him, who was also a sophomore in 2010. Three different QBs in three seasons, hard to compare that when Ertz and Toilolo had Andrew Luck for most of their career.

Not saying Ertz isn't better than Eifert, or vice versa, but you can't compare stats they had in college IMO.

 

[mussop]

In 2011, Eifert had a Sophomore QB in Tommy Rees throwing to him, who got benched for a freshman QB last year, Everett Golson. His freshmen season, he had Dayne Crist throwing to him, who was also a sophomore in 2010. Three different QBs in three seasons, hard to compare that when Ertz and Toilolo had Andrew Luck for most of their career.

Not saying Ertz isn't better than Eifert, or vice versa, but you can't compare stats they had in college IMO.

He's not comparing Ertz to Eifert. He's comparing Ertz to Tolio and Fauria taking into account where they could be drafted.

 

[mussop]

I was thinking you might misunderstand what I was trying to say, and it looks like you did.

There are two ways to look at this.

1. The value of a pick depends on the round he's selected.
You see a lot of boards rated them between 5th to 7th (and possibly UDFA), but you might not see that both were valued as high as the second round.
For mock draft purpose, let's say I'm able to pick them late in the sixth or somewhere in the seventh ('cause people in the Mock Draft are doubtful about them for some reasons), but they get selected in the 4th or 5th round in the real draft. It means that I get more value for the picks than you guys thought.

2. Another way to look at it is comparable "added value" for the position in a late round vs selecting Eifert at #27 in Kubiak's system, at least in the first year.
With two TEs already on board with receiving skills, Eifert isn't going to see that many targets to justify his first round status.
If you think Eifert will see more targets than Graham, I don't know what to tell you.

At the moment, the Texans need a good blocking TE; both Toilolo and Fauria are at least as capable as Eifert, if not better. On top of that, they are both great red zone weapons due to their size. They have already shown they are capable in that role. Eifert at #27 isn't tremendously better than them in these two tasks to justify the spot he's picked in.

Instead, the Texans can use that #1 pick on another position of need, providing the team with other value to make it better, be it a receiver or a pass rusher, whatever.

I don't have the energy for this discussion. . I will say IMO there is no way no how either of your guys could have even close value no matter where drafted. And I do believe Ertz would get more than enough playing time THIS year to justify drafting him. Graham hasn't shown me anything.

Also I don't see OD being around much longer.

 

[Playoffs]

Mock 3.0

Texans trade down...

16. St.Louis – DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson: Hunter could be the guy here as well, but the Rams have been busy with visits from Hopkins so I’m going to take that seriously and plug the most game-ready outside WR in this draft here at this spot.

17. Pittsburgh - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame: I also like Kenny Vaccaro here, but Eifert addresses a need in the passing game and gives the Steelers instant help in passing game. He’s not a great in-line blocker, but Matt Spaeth is back for that. With Heath Miller coming off a knee injury and with his contract expiring in 2014, this moves makes so much sense.

18. Dallas – Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas: Multi-dimensional safety plugs in right away with talented CB group.

19. NY Giants – Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State: Watson is a bit of a project but he has the upside to be a starting LT or RT for years to come. Giants could go DE here, but I don’t think they’ll reach for that position if their ratings don’t back it up.

20. Chicago – Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State: The Bears have a short-term answer in the middle with D.J. Williams, but that’s all he is for now. Lance Briggs is getting up there in age and Brown could fit in as a WLB or MLB in Bears scheme.

21. Cincinnati – Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia: Cue the Bengals character issue jokes, but Ogletree is a very real possibility for a defense that was way too inconsistent at ILB last year. Ogletree could play inside or outside for Mike Zimmer.

22. St. Louis - Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina: Williams gets great penetration and could help with an interior pass rush.

23. Minnesota – Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee: If you are the Vikings, you probably run up to the podium with this card as the Vikings could plug Hunter in next to Greg Jennings for immediate help in the passing game.

24. Indianapolis – Margus Hunt, DE, SMU: Hunt has absolutely freakish size/strength/quickness measurables and the length that 3-4 teams covet.

25. Minnesota – D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston: Hayden is big, fast and aggressive and gives the Vikings a player with outstanding upside to plug into their secondary.

26. Green Bay – Kyle Long, OT, Oregon: The Packers are in desperate need of a tackle and if they don’t take one here, they probably don’t get one. It’s not really in Ted Thompson’s nature to reach, but this year might be different.

27. San Francisco (trade with Houston) – Datone Jones, DE, UCLA: The Texans have several issues with depth on their roster and would be more than open to move back. Jones is a great fit for the 49ers’ 3-4 and gives them a pass rusher on the interior to groom behind Justin Smith. San Francisco has plenty of picks so they are going to be players higher up the board in all likelihood.

28. Denver – Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama: The Broncos could look at DE here, but Williams is a block eater who helps fortify the interior for the Broncos.

29. New England – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee: Of course Tom Brady needs even more weapons, right?

30. Atlanta – Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington: I’m sure the Falcons would love to have Trufant fall this far and I wouldn’t be shocked if they moved up in this draft to target a DE or a CB.

31. Houston (from 49′ers) – Robert Woods, WR, USC: If the Texans wait too long, the WRs they like will be gone and by moving back and picking up an extra pick, the Texans would be able to use that pick to add safety or TE later on. Woods gives them a solid #2 who could step in next year and he fits the Texans size/speed profile at WR.

32. Baltimore – Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State: The Ravens need pass rush help and while Werner isn’t a prototype in a 3-4, the Ravens could basically just turn him loose as WOLB and let him rush the passer.

Draft Notes

* I know it is shocking to see no QBs taken in the first round, but I think Geno Smith could really fall if he gets past the Jets. With that said, I think a team will trade into the back end of the first to take a QB or a team inside the top 10 will trade back and target QB later in the first.

* Tank Carradine could go inside the top 15 or fall completely out of the first round. Reviews of his play are very mixed in league circles and if teams don’t believe he’s a fit in the 3-4, his options are more limited.

* There could be a run on CBs in the first with as many as five going. It’s very unpredictable with so much CB depth in this draft.

 

[mussop]

Man if I'm sitting there at 31 and Werner is still on the board I would have a hard time passing him up. Move Reed inside put Werner outside and our defense is greatly improved.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

I always take trading down as the cop-out move in mocks. When noone wants to tradup and you don'tlike board what do you do?

 

[ChampionTexan]

I always take trading down as the cop-out move in mocks. When noone wants to tradup and you don'tlike board what do you do?

FWIW, Mike Mayock did his final (only?) mock tonight, and while he did it without trades, he did mention when discussing his San Fran pick that with all the picks they have this year, he expected them to trade up.

 

[Playoffs]

Lance Zierlein ‏@LanceZierlein 50m

I'm also not finding many teams who are excited by Bjoern Werner. I had Tank out of my last mock and Werner going 32nd

Lance Zierlein ‏@LanceZierlein 51m

Tank Carradine took a beating when I spoke with team sources today. I don't think the NFL world is as enamored with him as the draft media

 

[beerlover]

Mock 3.0

Texans trade down...

So basically comes down to Woods & special teams/depth player over Patterson who could come in as a rookie & completely turnaround return game while adding another dangerous WR weapon, let me think about it

 

[IDEXAN]

LZ once again showing his football acumen by making Robert Woods his pick for the Texans in his final mock. Gosh, what a coincidence, that's also my hope for the Texans WR choice.
But then there's this in the just released "draftcountdown.com" (one of my favorite mocks) latest and final mock which has Deandre Hopkins and Woods going at the 44th and 52th position respectively in the Draft, so go figure ? They've also got Keenan Allen & Terrance Williams, 2 other WRs rated first round picks in many mocks, both hanging around until the third round. That's real value at WR I'd say ?

 

[rmartin65]

So basically comes down to Woods & special teams/depth player over Patterson who could come in as a rookie & completely turnaround return game while adding another dangerous WR weapon, let me think about it

Its about hedging risk. Patterson could become the best WR, or he could wash out. With Woods you are getting a guy who can step in right away and be a decent number 2. However, he likely wont become anything more than a solid number 2.

 

[steelbtexan]

Its about hedging risk. Patterson could become the best WR, or he could wash out. With Woods you are getting a guy who can step in right away and be a decent number 2. However, he likely wont become anything more than a solid number 2.

This sounds just like Rick/Gary never take a chance on greatness, always take the safe route.

You can develop a nice little team drafting like this. But you wil never achieve greatness with this philosophy.

If Patterson is there he should be the pick. He may be dumb as a box of rocks. But Darius Slay the top notch CB from Miss St. said on a radio show this week that Patterson was the toughest guy to cover in the SEC. We dont need anybody with that kind of Talent playing WR2 on the Texans. Patterson doesn't fit Gary's mold of what a WR should be.

Patterson scored an 11 on his Wunderlich. Guess what AJ's score was? 14. Not exactly mensa material, Patterson should be the pick if available. (Doubtful)

 

[Rey]

I think LZ has been completely off base with his mocks and his inside info about guys. No way for me to be sure, but a lot of it just doesn't make sense.

I don't see why San Fran would move up a few spots to take Jones. Now I haven't seen a lot of Jones (or maybe I have and he was just forgettable), but still...Doesn't make sense to me...

And if I'm the Texans I'd rather take Patterson.

Woods is a nice player, but if we're going to take a WR in the first it needs to be a potential stud. I don't see a lot of difference between Woods and some of the second round WR's that will be there as far as ability goes. We don't need a slightly better Devier Posey in the first. We need a real live difference maker.

 

[IDEXAN]

I was watching some tape the other day of Justin Hunter, and the resemblance to Randy Moss is unmistakable, atleast for me. I'm not saying for a moment that he's the next Randy Moss or that he possess talent even close to RM, but the tall, thin, long-limbed physique and the lithe, effortless stride reminded me quite a bit of Moss. I could see how some team would watch him, study him and maybe even become enamored with what they thought he could be in the NFL. But I don't see ole "meat & potatoes" Gary Kubiak being the type of NFL coach who would fall in love with Hunter ?

 

[76Texan]

If Datone Jones is there, the Texans just have to take him.
He will replace Antonio Smith next year.
If the Niners want him, they would have to give us at least an additional second rounder before I agree to the trade.

 

[76Texan]

I don't have the energy for this discussion. . I will say IMO there is no way no how either of your guys could have even close value no matter where drafted. And I do believe Ertz would get more than enough playing time THIS year to justify drafting him. Graham hasn't shown me anything.

Also I don't see OD being around much longer.

O.D. is signed for two more years, with increasing cap of just 500K above last year level.
Unless he gets injured, I think the chance is almost 100% that he's not going anywhere.
Graham is already as good a blocking TE than any the Texans ever had.
His catching ability has never been the question.
The third TE, even if it's Eifert, isn't going to see the field much.
I honestly don't see the Texans taking a TE in the first three rounds.

They still might, but I doubt it very much.

 

[mussop]

If Datone Jones is there, the Texans just have to take him.
He will replace Antonio Smith next year.
If the Niners want him, they would have to give us at least an additional second rounder before I agree to the trade.

Most over rated player in this draft. He is one of the few players I would be unhappy with at 27.

 

[Doppelganger]

FWIW, Mike Mayock did his final (only?) mock tonight, and while he did it without trades, he did mention when discussing his San Fran pick that with all the picks they have this year, he expected them to trade up.

If San Francisco is smart, they trade down and acquire an additional second rounder. Then they flip a second rounder this year (and if needbe one of their thirds) into a 1st next year. They would still have their own second and multiple extra picks. They could even then to flip a third this year into a second next year in order to space out their picks.

They do that and suddenly they have 2 firsts and 2 seconds next year...SCARY!

 

[Señor Stan]

Its about hedging risk. Patterson could become the best WR, or he could wash out. With Woods you are getting a guy who can step in right away and be a decent number 2. However, he likely wont become anything more than a solid number 2.

Which, ironically is the precisely what we have gotten in terms of production from that position.

 

[76Texan]

If Datone Jones is there, the Texans just have to take him.
He will replace Antonio Smith next year.
If the Niners want him, they would have to give us at least an additional second rounder before I agree to the trade.

Most over rated player in this draft. He is one of the few players I would be unhappy with at 27.

That was what I thought at first, but then
I pulled up a lot of his tapes (whole games) and my thoughts about him changed.

This guy fits the Texans D very well.
He can play the 3t and 5t that Watt and Smith do.
He can slide into NT on passing down like Smith does or he can play at 43DE (like Smith did under Bush.)

He's constantly in the backfield, but didn't get much stats out of those occasions (in term of QB pressure) due to one reason or another.

He's solid in the run game, too!

This guy is going to play for a long time, IMHO.

 

[IDEXAN]

As near as I can figure from reading the player ratings/reviews, Terrance Williams out of Baylor is the best blocker, maybe the only WR coming out this year who's thought to have any serious skills as a blocker. Now I'm not sure how much this goes into Kubiak/Texans calculation in taking a WR ? We know it's important, but we probably will learn just how important it is very soon now ?

 

[Playoffs]

That was what I thought at first, but then
I pulled up a lot of his tapes (whole games) and my thoughts about him changed.

This guy fits the Texans D very well.
He can play the 3t and 5t that Watt and Smith do.
He can slide into NT on passing down like Smith does or he can play at 43DE (like Smith did under Bush.)

He's constantly in the backfield, but didn't get much stats out of those occasions (in term of QB pressure) due to one reason or another.

He's solid in the run game, too!

This guy is going to play for a long time, IMHO.

I went back and watched more on him, and I'm more on the fence than against now.

He's got a quick first step and can get skinny between a double.

Doesn't have an arsenal of moves, so upside there.

But he seems to lose body control on penetration often running himself out of the play or taking poor angles. Is he a finisher???

I've seen him get blown off the line in a run a few times.

So the question is for me is more about who he is as a worker. Can he be coached up? I dunno. I'd love to be in the interview.

 

[rmartin65]

This sounds just like Rick/Gary never take a chance on greatness, always take the safe route.

You can develop a nice little team drafting like this. But you wil never achieve greatness with this philosophy.

If Patterson is there he should be the pick. He may be dumb as a box of rocks. But Darius Slay the top notch CB from Miss St. said on a radio show this week that Patterson was the toughest guy to cover in the SEC. We dont need anybody with that kind of Talent playing WR2 on the Texans. Patterson doesn't fit Gary's mold of what a WR should be.

Patterson scored an 11 on his Wunderlich. Guess what AJ's score was? 14. Not exactly mensa material, Patterson should be the pick if available. (Doubtful)

I hate the Wonderlich, so I put very little stock into its results. I am basing my opinion of Patterson on his on-the-field play and what has been leaked from scouts (though I realize these could be smokescreens).

I would take Patterson if he was there. Boom/bust, but you have to swing for the fences sometimes.

Which, ironically is the precisely what we have gotten in terms of production from that position.

Haha, nice.