Kuharsky blog: 2013 Cap Carnage...A. Smith and K. Walter

[Grams]

Im not sold on those numbers. The cap is rumored to rise significantly over the next few years with the new TV deal.



Read an article last night stating the Texans would have roughly $24.8m in cap space for next season while the Dolts would have a league high $43m.

Here's a link by John Clayton discussing the cap space of each team. Clayton does state that the cap may not rise by much over the next three seasons.

We probably have 24.8 mill in cap room for next season, because there are a bunch of guys who's contacts expire after the 2012 season. Schaub, Brown, Barwin, etc are probably not included in the 2013 figures.

 

[Lucky]

Better question: Why NOT Jean?
A.J. will retire one day. Probably within the next 3-4 years. If Jean is still here, why not him?

That's a huge "if", don't you think for a UDFA WR who has never caught a NFL pass? Has Lestar Jean become the 2012 Chris Taylor? At least Taylor had a 99 yard effort before he went viral on TexansTalk.

Schaub, Brown, Barwin, etc are probably not included in the 2013 figures.

That's correct. But if Schaub is re-signed, his 2013 cap number is certain to be below the $11 million+ figure he carries in 2012.

As for what you hear on radio from callers that is about as selective as saying somewhere in Houston there is a person who believes the world actually did end when the new millennium hit and we are now all living in the matrix.

Take the blue pill.

 

[welsh texan]

Corrosion, I keep getting both sides also. The increases ares upposedly minimal however, the new TV deal is bringing in bunches for each team. If the cap is based upon total revenues and said revenue (include radio) goes up like $2 billion over the contract, why is cap only nufged upwards? Lots of confusion and probably misinformation.

The only conclusion I can come to is that the lawyers representing the owners were better than those representing the players. Because the players voted on a deal that would up their income to a higher percentage of the revenue, the revenue has, or will, rise dramatically, and the players aren't going to see it till half of them are out of the league.

Now, the interesting thing is, have we taken enough pain in our moves this offseason to give us a competitive advantage over the next few years, or are we battling to stay under the cap just as much going forward? It'll make or break the coaching regime I think.

 

[infantrycak]

The only conclusion I can come to is that the lawyers representing the owners were better than those representing the players. Because the players voted on a deal that would up their income to a higher percentage of the revenue, the revenue has, or will, rise dramatically, and the players aren't going to see it till half of them are out of the league.

For clarity, the players agreed to a deal with a lower percentage but with a definition of the revenue which iis broader for the calculation.

 

[badboy]

I do so love when people throw down the martyr card.

But pardon me for asking for clarification if you were speaking of coaches, players, pundits or couch potatoes.

As for what you hear on radio from callers that is about as selective as saying somewhere in Houston there is a person who believes the world actually did end when the new millennium hit and we are now all living in the matrix. From the radio I can say "some say..." freaking anything. You are more discerning than that. Don't get bent over one comment about draft derangement.

Be more selective with your questions. I always respond to criticisms, questions etc. "Who, what, when" comes across belligerent rather than asking for sources. I think I am pretty good at providing links when possible. Tthis is a sport forum of fans with opinions, I consider the radio call in programs the same and those callers have an opinion like we do. I believe you have voiced in the past that so called "experts" from ESPN, CBS, etc are little more knowledgeable than you or I.

Just so you will know, I considered the "draft derangement" comment hilarious. Did not bother me in the slightest and neither have most of your other comments towards me. Nor was I offended by I think it was Hou-Tex a couple posts later; but you seem to have gone on the attack as if just waiting to unleash the dogs.

 

[badboy]

Better question: Why NOT Jean?
A.J. will retire one day. Probably within the next 3-4 years. If Jean is still here, why not him?

I'm not a Jean advocate or anything. But when A.J. retires they won't stop having 2 WRs in our offensive formations. Someone will have to occupy that position. Why not Jean? He has a year on the gaggle of young WRs we have now. And if I'm reading the spy reports from TC correctly, Jean has the early lead for the #3 WR spot, is making good grabs, has a strong work ethic, seems to be the type to keep his mouth shut, head down, and do his job. ....why not Jean?

Exactly why I posted. My understanding is Jean has the physicals to be a future WR1. I believe it was in the Chronicle that I read he has been playing Andre's role at OTAs and looking good. I am pretty sure that was also discussed on this MB.

 

[badboy]

That's a huge "if", don't you think for a UDFA WR who has never caught a NFL pass? Has Lestar Jean become the 2012 Chris Taylor? At least Taylor had a 99 yard effort before he went viral on TexansTalk.


That's correct. But if Schaub is re-signed, his 2013 cap number is certain to be below the $11 million+ figure he carries in 2012.


Take the blue pill.

At this time of year, Texans and Rockets fans are doing the "what if" roster game. Considering Jean, the fact that Kubes did not draft a WR in first or second is an indicator he has high hopes for what is already on his roster. It wasn't that long ago that posters were "what if undrafted Adrian Foster could play?"

 

[badboy]

The only conclusion I can come to is that the lawyers representing the owners were better than those representing the players. Because the players voted on a deal that would up their income to a higher percentage of the revenue, the revenue has, or will, rise dramatically, and the players aren't going to see it till half of them are out of the league.

Now, the interesting thing is, have we taken enough pain in our moves this offseason to give us a competitive advantage over the next few years, or are we battling to stay under the cap just as much going forward? It'll make or break the coaching regime I think.

Ok but does not clarify where the new money is going. The percentage for players is less but from a larger pie so it seems that they would get at least as much as under old CBA to split. Now if the new CBA says NFL can take some of the new money from TV/radio and not add it to later years of cap, that is an answer. All the examples I see have only slight increases annually for life of contract and that dooes not compute.

 

[Ole Miss Texan]

Ok but does not clarify where the new money is going. The percentage for players is less but from a larger pie so it seems that they would get at least as much as under old CBA to split. Now if the new CBA says NFL can take some of the new money from TV/radio and not add it to later years of cap, that is an answer. All the examples I see have only slight increases annually for life of contract and that dooes not compute.

It's just really really confusing. The best I can understand is, yes, the new TV deal is huge and a great thing for the NFL. However, the revenue that that the NFL gets from it will increase gradually over the 9 year agreement. Most people are siting the average annual increase in revenue but that's far from painting an accurate picture on the salary cap over the next few years.

Annual revenue doesn't all of a sudden jump from $1.9 billion per year to the $3 billion level that is being discussed. Revenue from CBS, NBC and Fox to the NFL will likely increase incrementally, with more significant payments towards the end of the contract (just like a players' salary). Aside from the actual revenue from the TV deal, the NFL/Teams will likely have to pay taxes, fees, among an assortment of other hidden costs like a 1.5% stadium and player retirement benefits. That would likely be discussed in the new CBA.

So the first few years of the TV deal will likely be fairly similar to what the revenue is now. There may be a small increase in the % allocated to the players but that % would be AFTER taxes, fees, benefits, credits, etc.

 

[ObsiWan]

Nope. I asked exactly what I wanted. badboy made an affirmative assertion "it has been suggested" and I wanted clarification on that assertion.

Why not? Have you seen me argue against him? But at this point there is absolutely zilch to think he is going to replace AJ's slot much less skill level. I certainly hope every player excels at their position for the Texans.

There's where the assumption - whether you meant it to be there or not - comes thru in your question. That whoever takes the #1 WR position will be or should be of A.J. quality.

I submit that somebody will get that job when A.J. decides he's ready to retire. So why not Jean?

However, having said that, I further submit that no one will ever "take A.J.'s place". Because I seriously doubt we will see his like - in temperment, talent, physicality, and work ethic (at WR) all in one package - ever again wearing a Texans uniform. At least not in my lifetime.

Now if this discussion is about usurping A.J.'s position - i.e., someone, anyone, coming in and beating out A.J. for his job while he still has the health and the mindset to play, then I agree; that ain't gonna happen.
And I'm sorry for interrupting.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

I am going to post this here but there are a couple of other threads that it could apply to on the first page. Between his contract and normal aging the Texans have three to four years of andre johnson being the CLEAR #1 Wr on the roster. He is not in the short term (minus injury) needing a replacement.

Now, specially on LeStar jean. he is a great story and has gotten rave reviews from spring practice of whatever name. Good. Still, he has a better chance to never have a single season a good as the best season that Jacoby than be any sort of true NFL #1 WR. and honestly, the texans really only need him to turn into a 45-50 catch guy, which would make him an outstanding UDFA. Yes, arian foster happens, but remember the Texans did not bet on Arian being Arian during that off-season, just like they have not bet on Lestar being anyting this off-season.

Placing these together, the Texans are probably years from seing another Andre Johnson acquired in any manner. Given that there are only a handful of UDFA WRs who are starters in the NFL, much less true 1s, my bet is that Jean is Just Another Guy overall. That said, I hope that I am really wrong.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

I am going to post this here but there are a couple of other threads that it could apply to on the first page. Between his contract and normal aging the Texans have three to four years of andre johnson being the CLEAR #1 Wr on the roster. He is not in the short term (minus injury) needing a replacement.

Now, specially on LeStar jean. he is a great story and has gotten rave reviews from spring practice of whatever name. Good. Still, he has a better chance to never have a single season a good as the best season that Jacoby than be any sort of true NFL #1 WR. and honestly, the texans really only need him to turn into a 45-50 catch guy, which would make him an outstanding UDFA. Yes, arian foster happens, but remember the Texans did not bet on Arian being Arian during that off-season, just like they have not bet on Lestar being anyting this off-season.

Placing these together, the Texans are probably years from seing another Andre Johnson acquired in any manner. Given that there are only a handful of UDFA WRs who are starters in the NFL, much less true 1s, my bet is that Jean is Just Another Guy overall. That said, I hope that I am really wrong.

If Jean turns into a 45-50 catch guy that would be insanely amazing. He'd be head and shoulders better than Jacoby Jones ever was (who only broke 50 catches once in his time here). And that's good enough for me.

WRs who work hard frequently have long careers and I think Andre fits into that category. He's not going to be #1 for the entire span but he'll degrade into an outstanding #2. At that point, we'll need to have a new #1 standing by.

I don't think that new #1 is on the team. I could be wrong. Jean or Posey could develop into that. But I'm not really worried about it, yet.

 

[welsh texan]

I am going to post this here but there are a couple of other threads that it could apply to on the first page. Between his contract and normal aging the Texans have three to four years of andre johnson being the CLEAR #1 Wr on the roster. He is not in the short term (minus injury) needing a replacement.

Now, specially on LeStar jean. he is a great story and has gotten rave reviews from spring practice of whatever name. Good. Still, he has a better chance to never have a single season a good as the best season that Jacoby than be any sort of true NFL #1 WR. and honestly, the texans really only need him to turn into a 45-50 catch guy, which would make him an outstanding UDFA. Yes, arian foster happens, but remember the Texans did not bet on Arian being Arian during that off-season, just like they have not bet on Lestar being anyting this off-season.

Placing these together, the Texans are probably years from seing another Andre Johnson acquired in any manner. Given that there are only a handful of UDFA WRs who are starters in the NFL, much less true 1s, my bet is that Jean is Just Another Guy overall. That said, I hope that I am really wrong.

Does Kubes' offense really need and Andre Johnson to make it work though? Ok, so we've seen AJ go down and our passing game drop off a few times now, not just last season, but it seems as if Kubiak is capable of using WR's to clear space for each other, and if the playbook was based around 2 KW's instead of AJ + KW, maybe we could still be serviceable?

What was his record like in Denver did he always have at least one great receiver or did he get by with lesser talent at times? I ask because I've never seen him go after a great WR either a prospect or FA, the presence of AJ might be what has stopped that, but maybe, just maybe, AJ is a bonus rather than a necessity in our system? I believe AJ is now the only non-Smithiak era signing unless you count Norris.

KW needs to be made expendable by one of the younger guys this season, I felt for the last couple of years that they needed Jacoby to do that for them but he failed. Until that happens, we'll continue to use him for what he's good at, he isn't going to be a cap casualty until someone else steps up.

Antonio, I've said all along, as good as he is, we can get by paying a lot less at that position, maybe not be quite as good, but it will keep us good in other areas, Crick/next years signing will be the replacement.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

What was his record like in Denver did he always have at least one great receiver or did he get by with lesser talent at times? I ask because I've never seen him go after a great WR either a prospect or FA, the presence of AJ might be what has stopped that, but maybe, just maybe, AJ is a bonus rather than a necessity in our system? I believe AJ is now the only non-Smithiak era signing unless you count Norris.

The mainstay WR in Kubiak's offense in Denver was Rod Smith, the Great. An undrafted free agent signed the year before Kubiak took over. It took Smith 3 years to "get it". He didn't play at all -- I don't know if he made the practice squad or not -- his first year. In his first season under Kubiak, he only caught 6 passes but for 152 yards. From his third season to his next to last season, he had at least 70 catches each year and he had two years with catches over 100 which was very rare back in that time. He retired after the 2006 season (when Kubiak had come here.) He's the greatest receiver in Denver's history and should be in the running for the Hall of Fame.

The other guy for a good chunk of Kubiak's tenure in Denver was Ed McCaffrey. McCaffrey was a 3rd round draft pick by the Giants who played for them for 3 years. Then he spent a year in San Francisco with Shanahan and Kubiak and went to Denver with them. He was like KW on steroids.

The biggest draft choice at the WR spot Kubes had was Ashley Lelie. Lelie was drafted to take over for Rod Smith but ended up taking over for McCaffrey. He had 1 1000 yard season under Kubiak. He left Denver as a big name free agent when Kubiak left and fell all to pieces.

So. No. Kubes doesn't have a good history of drafting receivers. He has taken some cast-offs and built them into great players, though. And he's had some great success with TEs (Sharpe.) One of those seasons in Denver, he had Smith at 1000 yards and McCaffrey at 900 and Sharpe at almost 700... and that was with Griese throwing the ball.

 

[badboy]

Part of what we will have to live with in finding another AJ is where we are now drafting. Also, I think it is possible we could lose Barwin and go OLB again. Having said that, as mentioned above, in Wade and Gary's playbook you don't have to have a HOF to succeed.

 

[GP]

The mainstay WR in Kubiak's offense in Denver was Rod Smith, the Great. An undrafted free agent signed the year before Kubiak took over. It took Smith 3 years to "get it". He didn't play at all -- I don't know if he made the practice squad or not -- his first year. In his first season under Kubiak, he only caught 6 passes but for 152 yards. From his third season to his next to last season, he had at least 70 catches each year and he had two years with catches over 100 which was very rare back in that time. He retired after the 2006 season (when Kubiak had come here.) He's the greatest receiver in Denver's history and should be in the running for the Hall of Fame.

Not saying he's gonna be Hall of Fame caliber, but LeStar Jean might be that Rod Smith type WR here...the guy who took a couple years to build up steam.

I'm hoping so, at least! I'm just glad that Jacoby is gone because it'll give us a chance to see more at WR than just AJ, KW, and JJ. I'm ready to see some fresh faces out there.

 

[Corrosion]

Not saying he's gonna be Hall of Fame caliber, but LeStar Jean might be that Rod Smith type WR here...the guy who took a couple years to build up steam.

I'm hoping so, at least! I'm just glad that Jacoby is gone because it'll give us a chance to see more at WR than just AJ, KW, and JJ. I'm ready to see some fresh faces out there.

Im glad to see JJ gone cause I almost had a heart attack every damn time he touched the ball .... not to mention getting to see some fresh faces at WR.


Im surprised Gary didnt turn around and look the opposite direction every time a play was designed to go to him .....