Now that the 49ers beat down one of the AFC's best teams and the Packers lost to the lowly Chiefs, do you feel any different?
I would give it #1 to Harbaugh and #2 to Kubiak.
McCarthy, great coach, but he's working with the Super Bowl champions this season. That's much different than taking two clubs like the Texans and 49ers to their first playoff berths in a decade.
I suspect the CotY voting will go the way you predict.
I respect McCarthy at 15-1 (assuming they win out) because, as the champs, you get everyone's best shot.
I respect Kubiak's record, because, like the Niners, we were 6-10 last year and have been able to keep winning despite numerous injuries. Keeping the team focused and winning while star after star are lost for numerous games (if not for the season) is a coaching accomplishment. It's akin to what McCarthy did with the Packers last year when they kept losing starters. He kept them focused on the goal.
I'm just not sold on Harbaugh as a "mastermind" because of all the talent he inherited; plus his team has been relatively injury free this year.
So I wouldn't be surprised or consider it some sort of travesty if he wins it.
Personally, I think Kubiak's best decision all year might be chosing not to speak over the headset when the defense is on the field.

Edit: I think Tomlin ought to be up for anti-CotY for starting a very, very gimpy Roethlisberger. When I predicted a Steelers victory, I had no idea Ben R. was THAT bad off. He could barely get off the damned bus.