eriadoc
Texan-American
Back in the '06 season, I dreaded seeing Kris Brown line up for a FG between 30-30 yards. That feeling of dread was based entirely upon my gut feeling from observation, and I hadn't bothered to look up the numbers. In May '07, I looked up some numbers and made them available here:
Starting the next season, Kris Brown turned it around, and I laid off. The guy was doing a great job, and I thought that was the end of it. Now, however, I decided to look at a few numbers again to see what they tell us, and compare Brown to some of his colleagues, chosen completely at random, based on which kickers I could think of at that point.
Kris Brown (career 77.8%)
'07: 25/29 (very, very good)
'08: 29/33 (again, very, very good)
'09: 11/17 (terrible)
In Kris Brown's last season with the Steelers, he hit 68.2% of his kicks, after hitting 86% and 83% in his first two seasons. In '07 and '08, he hit 86.2% and 87.9%, respectively. So far this season, he's hitting 64.7%. By way of comparison, for the three seasons 2004, 2005, and 2006, when Brown was among the worst kickers in the AFC, his overall percentage was 74.7%. So far this season, he's hitting 64.7%. His lowest single season percentage was 70.8% (twice).
Most kickers don't kick a career % of 77.8% and keep their jobs for as long as he has. So I looked up a few kickers (again, random) and here are some numbers to consider:
Akers: 20/23 .... worst season 72.7%/career 81.4%
Bironas: 16/20 ... worst 78.6%/career 83.9%
Dawson: 6/6 ... worst 66.7%/career 83.2%
Elam: 10/16 ... worst 72.2%/career 80.8% (this year is bad, though)
Gostkowski: 20/24 ... worst 76.9%/career 85.1%
Gould: 16/19 ... worst 77.8%/career 85.7%
Graham: 12/17 ... worst 72.2%/career 84.5%
Longwell: 15/16 ... worst 64.5%/career 82.7%
Reed: 14/17 ... worst 71.9%/career 82.6%
Vinatieri: 6/8 ... worst 73.5%/career 82.0%
Obviously, the numbers don't tell the whole story, and certainly not in the limited context within which I've presented them. This is also far from comprehensive. There are certain factors that contribute to these numbers, like no FG over 50 yards ever being made in Heinz Field, for instance.
Most of the kickers I looked at had a bad year or two, but had many years in the mid to upper 80% range. Kris Brown's '07 and '08 seasons were good enough to place him in the top ten of kickers, most likely (sorry, not running those numbers LOL). However, this is his 11th season, and it so far is his sixth season where he has not achieved even his poor career average. In other words, for over half of his career, he has been a pretty poor kicker. Steven Hauschka got canned in Baltimore for having a better success percentage than Kris Brown.
This is a thread to get people involved, and I encourage others to go check out whatever numbers you want to bring to the discussion. I am by no means suggesting that I am an authority on the topic. But I do believe that Kris Brown is a mediocre-to-poor kicker, and his career numbers bear that out. The last couple of seasons have been great, no doubt. But he certainly wasn't great as a Texan prior to that, and is not currently.
Starting the next season, Kris Brown turned it around, and I laid off. The guy was doing a great job, and I thought that was the end of it. Now, however, I decided to look at a few numbers again to see what they tell us, and compare Brown to some of his colleagues, chosen completely at random, based on which kickers I could think of at that point.
Kris Brown (career 77.8%)
'07: 25/29 (very, very good)
'08: 29/33 (again, very, very good)
'09: 11/17 (terrible)
In Kris Brown's last season with the Steelers, he hit 68.2% of his kicks, after hitting 86% and 83% in his first two seasons. In '07 and '08, he hit 86.2% and 87.9%, respectively. So far this season, he's hitting 64.7%. By way of comparison, for the three seasons 2004, 2005, and 2006, when Brown was among the worst kickers in the AFC, his overall percentage was 74.7%. So far this season, he's hitting 64.7%. His lowest single season percentage was 70.8% (twice).
Most kickers don't kick a career % of 77.8% and keep their jobs for as long as he has. So I looked up a few kickers (again, random) and here are some numbers to consider:
Akers: 20/23 .... worst season 72.7%/career 81.4%
Bironas: 16/20 ... worst 78.6%/career 83.9%
Dawson: 6/6 ... worst 66.7%/career 83.2%
Elam: 10/16 ... worst 72.2%/career 80.8% (this year is bad, though)
Gostkowski: 20/24 ... worst 76.9%/career 85.1%
Gould: 16/19 ... worst 77.8%/career 85.7%
Graham: 12/17 ... worst 72.2%/career 84.5%
Longwell: 15/16 ... worst 64.5%/career 82.7%
Reed: 14/17 ... worst 71.9%/career 82.6%
Vinatieri: 6/8 ... worst 73.5%/career 82.0%
Obviously, the numbers don't tell the whole story, and certainly not in the limited context within which I've presented them. This is also far from comprehensive. There are certain factors that contribute to these numbers, like no FG over 50 yards ever being made in Heinz Field, for instance.
Most of the kickers I looked at had a bad year or two, but had many years in the mid to upper 80% range. Kris Brown's '07 and '08 seasons were good enough to place him in the top ten of kickers, most likely (sorry, not running those numbers LOL). However, this is his 11th season, and it so far is his sixth season where he has not achieved even his poor career average. In other words, for over half of his career, he has been a pretty poor kicker. Steven Hauschka got canned in Baltimore for having a better success percentage than Kris Brown.
This is a thread to get people involved, and I encourage others to go check out whatever numbers you want to bring to the discussion. I am by no means suggesting that I am an authority on the topic. But I do believe that Kris Brown is a mediocre-to-poor kicker, and his career numbers bear that out. The last couple of seasons have been great, no doubt. But he certainly wasn't great as a Texan prior to that, and is not currently.
