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Kiper 2014

Weighins can be cooked to show what you want them to be. If a quick weight GAIN is a goal for the Combine, it's a simple formula that requires no exercise or formal diet adjustment.........and no drugs to be detected that would jeopardize Draft/NFL status. Just load up on salt and chase it with your favorite water to easily add 5 pounds per day.
 
IMO you should already have your decision formed before the combine, then the combine has the ability to either reinforce your decision or off put you so much that you are forced to move onto #2 option.

It should never be anything as drastic as you might see from Mel Kiper's 7 day swings in 'his' big board.

Are you talking about the teams or are you talking about the fans?

For me... I'm a fan. I'm not such a hardcore draft fan that I watch college football players and identify guys I want. I gather information from a lot of sources including a lot of other peoples' opinions. I don't have a whole crew of researchers providing me information except for guys like Kiper and Mayock.

So, while watching the Combine and the Pro Days and listening to what other people are saying, that's how I'm going to come to my conclusions.

Then when we draft, I'll take a look at each kid and do a little more research (including talking to people here) and that's how I'll form my opinion of how we did.

For a football team with a whole crew of scouts and a GM and various coaches, they've got a lot of research to do and a lot of players to go over. They've got to integrate all of the information from the scouts with what the various coaches want and with what's done during FA.

The coaches, most of which haven't been watching much college ball during the season, have got to sit down first with tape of their own players to make evaluations and figure out where they want to go. Then they've got to take all the tape of kids from college and identify the guys the like and why and they've got to make a case to the GM about why he should pick their guy.

That's a ton of information.

To have you decisions about who you're going to go after already made this early into the process would be hasty, imo. You should have ideas about guys you want to watch and you should have ideas about what you should expect, but you shouldn't have come close to making any decisions, yet.
 
Weighins can be cooked to show what you want them to be. If a quick weight GAIN is a goal for the Combine, it's a simple formula that requires no exercise or formal diet adjustment.........and no drugs to be detected that would jeopardize Draft/NFL status. Just load up on salt and chase it with your favorite water to easily add 5 pounds per day.

As a powerlifter, I've seen some guys do some wild things to make weigh-ins.

Before my first competition, I had a stomach flu and dropped about 10 pounds. I was targeting lifting in a heavier weight class because of timing and scheduling issues. A day before, I was about 7 pounds short. After a serious hydration period, I made weight by a pound.

And then pissed like a racehorse.
 
So if Teddy weighs 205 and Manziel weighs 205, Manziel will be higher on your board?

What if Teddy is 6'1" and Manziel is just under 6'? Does Teddy go back ahead or is Manziel still better than Teddy because they both weigh 205?

Right now Manuel is ahead of Bridgewater because of his off-schedule ability. If Bridgewater can show he's closer to prototypical size it would be a plus for him.

I'm giving those that say Bridgewater was light this year because of off season surgery the benefit of the doubt. If after working on adding weight he is still light I'm going to conclude they were wrong & Bridgewater may never be closer to prototypical size than he is now.

Look. It doesn't have to make sense to you. I'm fine with that. You think Bridgewater is a franchise guy I don't. One of the reasons for that is because he looks like Pee Wee Herman. He can fix that. We'll see.


FYI... 205 is better the shorter the player is. 5'11" 205 is "stouter" than 6'5" 205 (which would be frail).
 
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...You think Bridgewater is a franchise guy I don't...

First, you mistake me for someone else. Just because someone else said it and I posted it doesn't mean that's my view -- I wouldn't have that many opposing takes. I post a wide spectrum of opinions of qualified or known scouts/media to further the discussion(s).

...Look. It doesn't have to make sense to you. I'm fine with that.

Not trying to be rude... I just don't understand changing your selection from QB A to QB C because A is 8 pounds light. I envision these guys when I read that...

[IMGwidthsize=400]http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lSs5gtJefns/UCECvRogSfI/AAAAAAAACoA/HVlLtjdaodA/s1600/Moneyball%2B6.jpg[/IMG]

Russell Wilson is 5' 10⅝" and 204 lbs. What does the tape show?
 
FYI... 205 is better the shorter the player is. 5'11" 205 is "stouter" than 6'5" 205 (which would be frail).
Tom Brady was 6'5" 211 lbs at the combine. Would that be frail? Actually, Brady was considered frail and not so athletic coming out of Michigan. And he was a 6th round pick. But he worked on his body, and became a better athlete and QB.

I would say yes, QBs are knocked for size. But that doesn't mean they can't overcome that and become good QBs. Bridgewater could easily bulk up.
 
Tom Brady was 6'5" 211 lbs at the combine. Would that be frail? Actually, Brady was considered frail and not so athletic coming out of Michigan. And he was a 6th round pick. But he worked on his body, and became a better athlete and QB.

I would say yes, QBs are knocked for size. But that doesn't mean they can't overcome that and become good QBs. Bridgewater could easily bulk up.

I'd have no issue drafting Bridgewater in the 6th. But I'm sure someone is going to over-value him & take him in the top 10 because one particular frail QB happens to be one of the GOATs.
 
The combine is more about the interviews and physicals. No player moves up or down more thsn 1/2 rd after a great combine unless al davis is alive.
 
I'd have no issue drafting Bridgewater in the 6th. But I'm sure someone is going to over-value him & take him in the top 10 because one particular frail QB happens to be one of the GOATs.

So, if I understand you, Tom Brady is frail, weak, feeble. The same Tom Brady who has played all 16 games in 11 of his 14 seasons, and 15 games in one of those sub-16 game appearances.

Do I understand you correctly?
 
No player moves up or down more thsn 1/2 rd after a great combine unless al davis is alive.
Which is completely subjective, because there is no pre-combine draft. No one knows who would go where if the combine didn't exist. Where would Dontari Poe have been drafted if not for his spectacular combine? No one can say for sure.
 
I'm still old school I guess. I look at it from the stand point of durability. He was thin all year, I think he's a natural hard gainer & while he might get his weight up to 210 for the combine, he'll eventually settle back to his norm of 205 or less.

Manziel is short, 6'1" if he's lucky, but that same 205 looks better on him. More durable.

I know QBs get hurt all the time; big & small. I still think the smaller ones are more apt... I don't know that there is any data to prove it, I actually doubt it. But it makes sense. You don't send a boy to do a man's job.

You, & every Texans' fan know all too well what it's like to cross your fingers & hope your QB can play 16+ games a season, or if he gets hurt, that he can come back at the right time & finish. & we had a relatively "big" guy.

There are & there will be questions about his talent & his ability to lead. Don't need questions about his ability to stay on the field.


Manziel looks to run much more than Bridgewater. Bridgewater pretty much avoided contact by sliding and going out of bounds. Looking at the injury history, Bridgewater went through the season with no issues, Manziel was playing thru a shoulder, hand, and ankle injuries as the season progressed. Manziel is the bigger injury risk based on injury history and style of play.
 
So, if I understand you, Tom Brady is frail, weak, feeble. The same Tom Brady who has played all 16 games in 11 of his 14 seasons, and 15 games in one of those sub-16 game appearances.

Do I understand you correctly?

There will always be exceptions to the rule.

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There will always be exceptions to the rule.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

But you think Brady is frail, right? You said, "...one particular frail QB happens to be one of the GOATs."

I'm trying to understand your definition of frail here because it sounds like your standard is quite high. Tom Brady has played all 16 games in 11 of 14 seasons and 15 games in one of those other 3. That something like 193 games played and 33 missed, which sounds fairly durable.
 
There will always be exceptions to the rule.

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I think the point to take away is something that both O'Brien and Brady have said in different ways. Brady started off as a skinny, non-athletic project. But because of his dedication, work-ethic, and intelligence, he was able to improve himself and become one of the GOATs. Players can, with work, improve themselves.

Brady has said that -- I think it was near the end of his rookie year -- he saw an evaluation on him by the Patriots that basically said he needed to do everything faster. And so, he worked on that and he sped everything up. O'Brien has said that in most cases, a QB can improve their arm strength.

The evaluation that a team has to do is to figure out not only what these players are and what they did in college, but can they be molded and improved and built into what the team needs.

Bridgewater and Manziel are not going to get taller. But they can get bigger and stronger. They have to have the work-ethic and the desire so that after they're drafted, they will work on their weaknesses in the offseason.

O'Brien's biggest thing is their intelligence and their ability to make the right decisions quickly. I don't know how he's going to test that but that's how he's going to decide which QB to take this year (IF he takes a QB which I don't think is a given.)
 
Quarterbacks
1. *Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
2. *Blake Bortles, UCF
3. **Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
4. Derek Carr, Fresno State
5. AJ McCarron, Alabama
6. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
7. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
8. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
9. *Brett Smith, Wyoming
10. Aaron Murray, Georgia
Running backs
1. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
2. *Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona
3. *Bishop Sankey, Washington
4. *Jeremy Hill, LSU
5. *Lache Seastrunk, Baylor
6. *De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
7. *Tre Mason, Auburn
8. Charles Sims, West Virginia
9. Dri Archer, Kent State
10. Andre Williams, Boston College
Wide receivers
1. *Sammy Watkins, Clemson
2. *Marqise Lee, USC
3. **Mike Evans, Texas A&M
4. *Odell Beckham Jr., LSU
5. *Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
6. **Davante Adams, Fresno State
7. *Jarvis Landry, LSU
8. **Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State
9. Robert Herron, Wyoming
10. Josh Huff, Oregon
Tight ends
1. *Eric Ebron, North Carolina
2. *Jace Amaro, Texas Tech
3. *Troy Niklas, Notre Dame
4. *Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
5. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa
6. Crockett Gillmore, Colorado State
7. Marcel Jensen, Fresno State
8. *Jake Murphy, Utah
9. *Colt Lyerla, Oregon
10. Jordan Najvar, Baylor
Offensive tackles
1. *Greg Robinson, Auburn
2. Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
3. Taylor Lewan, Michigan
4. Zack Martin, Notre Dame
5. *Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama
6. *Antonio Richardson, Tennessee
7. Morgan Moses, Virginia
8. Jack Mewhort, Ohio State
9. Ja'Wuan James, Tennessee
10. Seantrel Henderson, Miami (Fla.)
Offensive guards
1. Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State
2. *David Yankey, Stanford
3. Brandon Thomas, Clemson
4. *Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA
5. Cyril Richardson, Baylor
6. Joel Bitonio, Nevada
7. Jon Halapio, Florida
8. John Urschel, Penn State
9. Chris Watt, Notre Dame
10. Ryan Groy, Wisconsin
Centers
1. *Marcus Martin, USC
2. Weston Richburg, Colorado State
3. *Russell Bodine, North Carolina
4. Travis Swanson, Arkansas
5. Bryan Stork, Florida State
6. Jonotthan Harrison, Florida
7. Tyler Larsen, Utah State
8. Dillon Farrell, New Mexico
9. James Stone, Tennessee
10. Zac Kerin, Toledo
 
But you think Brady is frail, right? You said, "...one particular frail QB happens to be one of the GOATs."

I'm trying to understand your definition of frail here because it sounds like your standard is quite high. Tom Brady has played all 16 games in 11 of 14 seasons and 15 games in one of those other 3. That something like 193 games played and 33 missed, which sounds fairly durable.

You're even exaggerating his games missed. In 2000 he wasn't the starter so those are not missed games. Bledsoe started the 1st two games of 2001 so again not games missed. Since then he had one injury causing him to miss games, the knee in 2008 causing him to miss 15 games. That's it, one injury which would have felled any QB who sustained that hit and resulted in a rule change.

There will always be exceptions to the rule.

Funny, you seem not to be aware of that when talking about Russell Wilson.
 
Defensive ends
1. *Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
2. *Kony Ealy, Missouri
3. *Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame
4. *Scott Crichton, Oregon State
5. Chris Smith, Arkansas
6. *Demarcus Lawrence, Boise State
7. Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas
8. Kareem Martin, North Carolina
9. *Jeoffrey Pagan, Alabama
10. Marcus Smith, Louisville
Defensive tackles
1. *Timmy Jernigan, Florida State
2. *Louis Nix III, Notre Dame
3. Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh
4. *Kelcy Quarles, South Carolina
5. Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota
6. Will Sutton, Arizona State
7. *Dominique Easley, Florida
8. DaQuan Jones, Penn State
9. *Anthony Johnson, LSU
10. *Ego Ferguson, LSU
Inside linebackers
1. C.J. Mosley, Alabama
2. Chris Borland, Wisconsin
3. Shayne Skov, Stanford
4. Preston Brown, Louisville
5. Max Bullough, Michigan State
6. *Yawin Smallwood, Connecticut
7. Jordan Zumwalt, UCLA
8. Glenn Carson, Penn State
9. Avery Williamson, Kentucky
10. Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky
Outside linebackers
1. Khalil Mack, Buffalo
2. Anthony Barr, UCLA
3. *Ryan Shazier, Ohio State
4. Dee Ford, Auburn
5. Kyle Van Noy, BYU
6. Trent Murphy, Stanford
7. *Carl Bradford, Arizona State
8. Telvin Smith, Florida State
9. Lamin Barrow, LSU
10. *Adrian Hubbard, Alabama
Cornerbacks
1. Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State
2. Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State
3. Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State
4. Jason Verrett, TCU
5. *Marcus Roberson, Florida
6. *Bradley Roby, Ohio State
7. Keith McGill, Utah
8. *Loucheiz Purifoy, Florida
9. Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech
10. *Bashaud Breeland, Clemson
Safeties
1. *Calvin Pryor, Louisville
2. *Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama
3. Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois
4. Deone Bucannon, Washington State
5. *Dion Bailey, USC
6. Antone Exum, Virginia Tech
7. Terrence Brooks, Florida State
8. Ahmad Dixon, Baylor
9. Marqueston Huff, Wyoming
10. Ty Zimmerman, Kansas State
 
But you think Brady is frail, right? You said, "...one particular frail QB happens to be one of the GOATs."

I'm trying to understand your definition of frail here because it sounds like your standard is quite high. Tom Brady has played all 16 games in 11 of 14 seasons and 15 games in one of those other 3. That something like 193 games played and 33 missed, which sounds fairly durable.

But Tom Brady is not 6'4" 211 & hasn't been for the last 14 seasons. He was when he was drafted & that among other reasons was why he fell to the 6th round.
 
Defensive ends
1. *Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
2. *Kony Ealy, Missouri
3. *Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame
4. *Scott Crichton, Oregon State
5. Chris Smith, Arkansas
6. *Demarcus Lawrence, Boise State
7. Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas
8. Kareem Martin, North Carolina
9. *Jeoffrey Pagan, Alabama
10. Marcus Smith, Louisville


Clowney, Ealy, Tuitt.... I'm not saying these guys are the same, but there's a big drop off after these three. These three will go in the first round. Two of them maybe in the top ten. Personally, I don't believe you're going to get anything comparable in the second round.

QB on the other hand... Whether you like Bridgewater, Manziel, or Bortles, you can find a comparable prospect in the second, or even later, rounds.
 
QB on the other hand... Whether you like Bridgewater, Manziel, or Bortles, you can find a comparable prospect in the second, or even later, rounds.

People say this every year, and almost every year this doesn't happen. Literally EVERY SINGLE YEAR people in these message boards pull out their Brett Smith's from Wyoming or Matthews from Cornell and EVERY SINGLE YEAR those guys do nothing, those posters deny they said it, and the players fade into obscurity.

I know, I've been the guy touting the goose that lays golden eggs from Nowheresville, Antartica. I soon realized I was over thinking the simple stuff and I stopped.

There will always be a Tom Brady, a Tony Romo, or a Russell Wilson and this is what most hang their hats on, but they forget about all of the other late round failures. Here, take a look, there are a LOT. (Take note of what the Panthers did in 2010 and how they rectified that in 2011)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/QB-1980-now.htm

Then when you look at those bajillion guys, look at this list and take note of where most of these top guys were drafted:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/passingYards/year/2013/seasontype/2

Oh yeah, and if Drew Brees was drafted today, he would be a 1st round pick (1-32).
 
Are you talking about the teams or are you talking about the fans?

That's a ton of information.

To have you decisions about who you're going to go after already made this early into the process would be hasty, imo. You should have ideas about guys you want to watch and you should have ideas about what you should expect, but you shouldn't have come close to making any decisions, yet.

Not gonna quote your whole thing cause it's long.

I'm talking about both. They go hand in hand to an extent.

It is a ton of information, but we are talking about scouts here. They are not computer guys 5 days a week then message board warriors on the weekends. It is their main job and prime directive to know these players going INTO the season, THROUGH the season, and AFTER the season.

After the season ends, me, 5 day computer guy and message board warrior on the weekends has an idea of the guys I like and want. Then I see how our draft picks shake out, where I thought we needed work the most, and the availability of players. This list moves and shakes with the more I find out and obviously underclassmen declaring and abstract players from Wyoming or Cornell being brought to my attention.

But for the most part, you aren't seeing crazy swings from me and I don't believe you should from teams either. When you see this happening in a positive way for the player you generally overdraft players like Stephen Hill or you get teams like Al Davis used to own.
 
There will always be a Tom Brady, a Tony Romo, or a Russell Wilson and this is what most hang their hats on, but they forget about all of the other late round failures. Here, take a look, there are a LOT. (Take note of what the Panthers did in 2010 and how they rectified that in 2011)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/QB-1980-now.htm

Then when you look at those bajillion guys, look at this list and take note of where most of these top guys were drafted:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/passingYards/year/2013/seasontype/2

Oh yeah, and if Drew Brees was drafted today, he would be a 1st round pick (1-32).

Well there were a bunch of first rounders that didn't make that second list.

I'm not in the, "You can find a guy in the third, look at Russell Wilson... or undrafted, Romo... or in the 6th, Brady" crowd. If we end up having to start Tj Yates, then yeah I'm that guy. Or if they decide to start Case Keenum, I'll be that guy.

Now, before the draft I'm the, "There are six first round QBs in this draft, I think 4 QBs will be drafted in the first, 1 of those won't be 1st round talent, leaving 3 QBs I believe are first rounders on the board. & I have the 1st pick in the second round."

Oh yeah, Matt Scaub (3rd round) appeared on that second list more times than not.
 
Well there were a bunch of first rounders that didn't make that second list.

Oh yeah, Matt Scaub (3rd round) appeared on that second list more times than not.

1. And a bunch that did.

2. 7 years. Amount of years wasted trying to force a guy to become more than he was. I'm not gonna sit here and deny that he was great, you heard me, great, for a few of those years, but at the end of the day we wasted 7 years and several Super Bowl winning QBs in the draft waiting for him to be more than he was.
 
2. 7 years. Amount of years wasted trying to force a guy to become more than he was. I'm not gonna sit here and deny that he was great, you heard me, great, for a few of those years, but at the end of the day we wasted 7 years and several Super Bowl winning QBs in the draft waiting for him to be more than he was.

With hindsight, if you had the #1 pick in the 2010 draft, who would you take?

  • Sam Bradford
  • Tim Tebow
  • Jimmy Clausen
  • Colt McCoy

Did taking Tim Tebow in the first round increase his chances for success? He was not a first round QB. Just because Denver took him in the first, did not change that.

Sam Bradford... was he a first round QB? I think so. Even though he played on a very talented Oklahoma team. Even though he had an injury riddled Junior year. But not #1 overall & taking him #1 overall did not change his chances of success.

That's what we're dealing with here. The closer we get to the draft it appears more "scouts" & NFL people are saying the same thing. A month ago Bridgewater was considered the 3rd best player in the draft, I'm seeing boards now where he's the 10th best.

If we pick up Cassel, or Mallet, I guarantee you he'll drop out of the top 10. It shouldn't have anything to do with it, Jacksonville should be in the market for a QB, but they're saying they are leaning towards DE. Cleveland might be looking for a QB, but everyone has them taking Manziel.

If you use the same criteria that you've always used to evaluate QBs for the draft, which include height, weight, arm strength, accuracy, pro offense, level of competition, stats, mechanics, etc... he doesn't "grade" out to be a #1 overall QB... not a top 5 NFL prospect. We have to ignore a lot, rationalize a lot to justify taking him #1 overall & that should be a big red flag.

Every time you say, "Yeah, but...." something's wrong. 1 or 2, ok. But 3 or 4... watch out. You're trying to make this guy something he's not & are liable to waste another 7 years to "figure out" he's not.
 
By the same standard of measurements neither Drew Brees nor Aaron Rodgers would grade out as Number 1 picks, yet if you had do overs on their drafts they would probably go #1. In the end if you believe it is the best decision with the largest expected value in return you make it, historical perspective doesn't always lead to the correct thinking in each case, just more often then not.


With hindsight, if you had the #1 pick in the 2010 draft, who would you take?

  • Sam Bradford
  • Tim Tebow
  • Jimmy Clausen
  • Colt McCoy

Did taking Tim Tebow in the first round increase his chances for success? He was not a first round QB. Just because Denver took him in the first, did not change that.

Sam Bradford... was he a first round QB? I think so. Even though he played on a very talented Oklahoma team. Even though he had an injury riddled Junior year. But not #1 overall & taking him #1 overall did not change his chances of success.

That's what we're dealing with here. The closer we get to the draft it appears more "scouts" & NFL people are saying the same thing. A month ago Bridgewater was considered the 3rd best player in the draft, I'm seeing boards now where he's the 10th best.

If we pick up Cassel, or Mallet, I guarantee you he'll drop out of the top 10. It shouldn't have anything to do with it, Jacksonville should be in the market for a QB, but they're saying they are leaning towards DE. Cleveland might be looking for a QB, but everyone has them taking Manziel.

If you use the same criteria that you've always used to evaluate QBs for the draft, which include height, weight, arm strength, accuracy, pro offense, level of competition, stats, mechanics, etc... he doesn't "grade" out to be a #1 overall QB... not a top 5 NFL prospect. We have to ignore a lot, rationalize a lot to justify taking him #1 overall & that should be a big red flag.

Every time you say, "Yeah, but...." something's wrong. 1 or 2, ok. But 3 or 4... watch out. You're trying to make this guy something he's not & are liable to waste another 7 years to "figure out" he's not.
 
But Tom Brady is not 6'4" 211 & hasn't been for the last 14 seasons.

And you referred to him as frail, but hes really not, so its difficult to see what your point is here. Just like any other "frail" QB entering the league, Brady had a chance to improve himself with an NFL-level S&C program. He took advantage of that just like all QB prospects will have the opportunity to do once they are drafted.

You talk in circles which makes understanding your position on a subject quite difficult.
 
Kiper: Five big questions for teams entering the combine
1. Could Houston's plans change with a great workout from Jadeveon Clowney or Greg Robinson? Maybe. I don't think it'll change their priorities, but it could help them shift demand. The best thing that can happen for Houston is for all the top players to have amazing workouts. Clowney and Robinson are No. 1 and No. 2 on my Big Board, respectively, not just because they are great players, but because I already know they are great athletes. Same for many teams. But if the workouts serve to do more, and if teams find them even more attractive as prospects coming out of Indy, Houston has greater trade leverage. The better everyone looks, the better it is to hold the No. 1 pick.

2. Any reason to think the Rams are looking at a QB at No. 2? No. The Rams need to take another step forward in 2014 given the personnel they have -- they have a lot of good players -- and there's no reason to believe a rookie starter at QB gives them a better chance in the NFC West than Sam Bradford, regardless of Bradford's up-and-down career so far. General manager Les Snead is likelier to trade the pick to someone who covets a QB than draft one himself in that slot.

3. Are the Jaguars trying to decide on a QB at No. 3? I'll put it this way: I think they're taking a really good look at this QB class. I think they'll do a lot of work on Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater and decide if one or more of those can be a good long-range solution. That said, I think they'll do work on a number of QBs in this class, and it's still 50/50 if they draft their new QB at No. 3, because the new front office has shown me they want to take great football players, and I don't think they'll draft a QB if they have many players rated higher.

4. Should the Browns trade up in order to get their franchise QB? No. I realize that Cleveland needs a QB they feel they can build around, but I don't think you trade up from that high of a draft slot unless you have a certain upgrade at the position for the immediate future. This draft doesn't offer that promise.

5. Will the Raiders have the chance to take one of the top three QBs? If I had to bet, then yes, I think they will have the chance. But the Raiders are a team that should look to trade down, too. Just because a QB is there doesn't mean they draft one. They have needs all over the place.
Top five questions for players entering the combine
1. Will Clowney make himself irresistible at No. 1 by his combine workout? No. He is worthy of No. 1, but his great athletic traits are well known. Houston should hope someone else sees him as irresistible at No. 1, and offers them the moon to take him there. (Houston may prefer just to take him, of course.)

2. Do you really care that much about Mike Evans' 40 time? Yes. I had a friend in one front office tell me he feels Evans has the best ball skills he's seen in 20 years. I won't go that far, but If Evans shows off mid-4.4 speed, we'll have teams debating the top wide receiver in this draft between him and Watkins.

3. Which player could go from second-round status to the first round with a strong Combine workout? I'll give you three. Jarvis Landry, WR from LSU; Kelcy Quarles, DT/DE from South Carolina; Dee Ford, edge rusher from Auburn. There could be more, but those come to mind.

4. Your pick for biggest combine freak overall? I'll give you two. On offense, I think UNC tight end Eric Ebron could be a size/speed freak. On defense, I'll go with Khalil Mack.

5. Does Aaron Murray or Zach Mettenberger have a better chance to be an NFL starter? Mettenberger. When they are both healthy, Mettenberger simply has the superior arm, and despite less experience, is Murray's equal or better when it comes to anticipation, ball placement and polish.
Top five workout questions entering the Combine
1. Which measurement has become more important? Hand size for QBs. We're past the age of the "prototype" QB who has to be a certain height and weight. Many value other traits just as much, particularly athleticism. But you have to be able to grip the ball and drive it down the field either in the pocket or on the move, and hand size matters in that regard. You don't have to be a giant, but there's a minimum threshold you have to meet.

2. 40-yard dash: Your pick to be the fastest player here? I like several of the picks Todd made above. Archer, from Kent State, can fly. Roby from Ohio State and Purifoy of Florida could be at or near the top among corners, and if Oregon's Thomas gets a great jump, watch out. A sleeper pick might be Baylor running back Lache Seastrunk.

3. QB passing drills: Do they matter? No. It's nice to see a kid compete, but if you're reading a lot into a QB throwing certain routes to unfamiliar targets in an unfamiliar setting, you're reading too closely.

4. What's a "hot" measurement right now? An accurate measurement. Seriously -- every year guys go up and down 20 pounds or grow or shrink an inch based on previous listings. I know a lot about players through watching the tape, and talking to coaches and other evaluators at all levels. But you don't have accurate measurements until the combine, so those are the No. 1 thing I take from this. It's nice to verify.

5. What workout at the combine will matter most to the QB class? Interviews. There isn't a near-perfect QB prospect in this class. Teams need to believe these quarterbacks will put in the time to make themselves great.
 
Are there people who really expect Evans to run under a 4.5?

He has great athleticism for his size but at 225 lbs I'm thinking he'll be right around 4.55, which is perfectly fine.
 
Kiper: Five big questions for teams entering the combine

Top five questions for players entering the combine

Top five workout questions entering the Combine

I could not care less about anything Kiper says (yes, I know I'm in a Kiper thread. lol), but I think he and many others are putting way too much stock in the Combine.

It's been a while, but I once read a piece or a comment from a GM saying players rarely ever move UP their draft boards due to Combine performances. However, they could drop DOWN some due to medicals, interviews, etc. The drills do not mean a whole lot. It's merely a dog and pony show for the fans and media.

That is how I've felt about the Combine ever since hearing/reading that. There's weigh-ins, medicals and interviews. The rest is fluff
 
Are there people who really expect Evans to run under a 4.5?

He has great athleticism for his size but at 225 lbs I'm thinking he'll be right around 4.55, which is perfectly fine.

Charles Davis to believe Evans can run an electric 40-yard dash time...
“I’ve been told — and we will see at the combine — that he could run a high 4.4 time. And if that’s the case, then game, set, match, off he goes.”
 
Kiper on Colin Cowherd this morning said, "Johnny Manziel is still the consensus #1 overall quarterback."
 
2/27 Big Board
1Jadeveon Clowney *AGE: 21DOB: 2/14/93HT: 6-5WT: 266POS: DE

2Greg Robinson **AGE: 21DOB: 10/21/92HT: 6-5WT: 332POS: OT

3Khalil MackAGE: 22DOB: 2/22/91HT: 6-3WT: 251POS: OLB

4Sammy Watkins *AGE: 20DOB: 6/14/93HT: 6-1WT: 211POS: WR

5Jake MatthewsAGE: 22DOB: 2/11/92HT: 6-5WT: 308POS: OT

6Mike Evans **AGE: 20DOB: 8/21/93HT: 6-5WT: 231POS: WR

7Taylor LewanAGE: 22DOB: 7/21/91HT: 6-7WT: 309POS: OT

8Eric Ebron *AGE: 20DOB: 4/10/93HT: 6-4WT: 250POS: TE

9Anthony BarrAGE: 21DOB: 3/18/92HT: 6-5WT: 255POS: DE

10Teddy Bridgewater *AGE: 21DOB: 11/10/92HT: 6-2WT: 214POS: QB

11Blake Bortles *AGE: 22DOB: 12/16/91HT: 6-5WT: 232POS: QB

12Johnny Manziel **AGE: 21DOB: 12/6/92HT: 6-0WT: 207POS: QB

13C.J. MosleyAGE: 21DOB: 6/19/92HT: 6-2WT: 234POS: LB

14Justin GilbertAGE: 22DOB: 11/7/91HT: 6-0WT: 202POS: CB

15Marqise Lee *AGE: 22DOB: 11/25/91HT: 6-0WT: 192POS: WR

16Timmy Jernigan *AGE: 21DOB: 9/24/92HT: 6-2WT: 299POS: DT

17Brandin Cooks *AGE: 20DOB: 9/25/93HT: 5-10WT: 189POS: WR

18Darqueze DennardAGE: 22DOB: 10/10/91HT: 5-11WT: 199POS: CB

19Zack MartinAGE: 23DOB: 11/20/90HT: 6-4WT: 308POS: OT

20Odell Beckham Jr. *AGE: 21DOB: 11/5/92HT: 5-11WT: 198POS: WR

21Aaron DonaldAGE: 22DOB: 5/23/91HT: 6-1WT: 285POS: DT

It's hard to be hotter as a prospect than Donald is right now. He leads the country in tackles for loss, then goes to Mobile and is a star at the Senior Bowl working against very good competition, then he goes to Indy and runs 4.65 in the 40 at 285 pounds, and also throws in 35 reps in the bench press for good measure. And on the combine totals, the athleticism and power match up perfectly with how he played all year, with a blend of quickness and power to run through and around blocks, creating constant problems for offenses. Now, he's a likely mid-first-round pick.

22Louis Nix III *AGE: 22DOB: 7/31/91HT: 6-2WT: 331POS: DT


23Calvin Pryor *AGE: 21DOB: 7/2/92HT: 5-11WT: 207POS: S


24Ha Ha Clinton-Dix *AGE: 21DOB: 12/21/92HT: 6-1WT: 208POS: S


25Ryan Shazier *AGE: 21DOB: 9/6/92HT: 6-1WT: 237POS: OLB
BhlcXilCAAA8Ql7.png
 
Last edited:
6/3 update
1Jadeveon Clowney *AGE: 21DOB: 2/14/93HT: 6-5WT: 266POS: DE

2Greg Robinson **AGE: 21DOB: 10/21/92HT: 6-5WT: 332POS: OT

3Khalil MackAGE: 22DOB: 2/22/91HT: 6-3WT: 251POS: OLB

4Sammy Watkins *AGE: 20DOB: 6/14/93HT: 6-1WT: 211POS: WR

5Jake MatthewsAGE: 22DOB: 2/11/92HT: 6-5WT: 308POS: OT

6Mike Evans **AGE: 20DOB: 8/21/93HT: 6-5WT: 231POS: WR

7Taylor LewanAGE: 22DOB: 7/21/91HT: 6-7WT: 309POS: OT

8Eric Ebron *AGE: 20DOB: 4/10/93HT: 6-4WT: 250POS: TE

9Anthony BarrAGE: 21DOB: 3/18/92HT: 6-5WT: 255POS: DE

10Teddy Bridgewater *AGE: 21DOB: 11/10/92HT: 6-2WT: 214POS: QB

11Blake Bortles *AGE: 22DOB: 12/16/91HT: 6-5WT: 232POS: QB

12Johnny Manziel **AGE: 21DOB: 12/6/92HT: 6-0WT: 207POS: QB

13C.J. MosleyAGE: 21DOB: 6/19/92HT: 6-2WT: 234POS: LB

14Justin GilbertAGE: 22DOB: 11/7/91HT: 6-0WT: 202POS: CB

15Brandin Cooks *AGE: 20DOB: 9/25/93HT: 5-10WT: 189POS: WR

16Timmy Jernigan *AGE: 21DOB: 9/24/92HT: 6-2WT: 299POS: DT

17Odell Beckham Jr. *AGE: 21DOB: 11/5/92HT: 5-11WT: 198POS: WR

18Darqueze DennardAGE: 22DOB: 10/10/91HT: 5-11WT: 199POS: CB

19Zack MartinAGE: 23DOB: 11/20/90HT: 6-4WT: 308POS: OT

20Marqise Lee *AGE: 22DOB: 11/25/91HT: 6-0WT: 192POS: WR

21Aaron DonaldAGE: 22DOB: 5/23/91HT: 6-1WT: 285POS: DT

22Louis Nix III *AGE: 22DOB: 7/31/91HT: 6-2WT: 331POS: DT

23Calvin Pryor *AGE: 21DOB: 7/2/92HT: 5-11WT: 207POS: S

24Ha Ha Clinton-Dix *AGE: 21DOB: 12/21/92HT: 6-1WT: 208POS: S

25Ryan Shazier *AGE: 21DOB: 9/6/92HT: 6-1WT: 237POS: OLB
 
It's kind of unusual for me how he has all 3 QBs right next to each other. It's like he couldn't find a place to put them and just put them all in one spot.

Kiper is so dumb. I guess most of his wild swings are over until next week when he likely shoots Donald up about 10 picks. That should be the last one unless something weird happens.
 
It's kind of unusual for me how he has all 3 QBs right next to each other. It's like he couldn't find a place to put them and just put them all in one spot.

If you could put all three of them together you'd have a prototypical QB. Bridgewater's precision, Bortles' size, Manziel's ... I don't know what you call it. But he's got it.
 
Kiper on Colin Cowherd this morning said, "Johnny Manziel is still the consensus #1 overall quarterback."

10 Teddy Bridgewater *AGE: 21DOB: 11/10/92HT: 6-2WT: 214POS: QB

11 Blake Bortles *AGE: 22DOB: 12/16/91HT: 6-5WT: 232POS: QB

12 Johnny Manziel **AGE: 21DOB: 12/6/92HT: 6-0WT: 207POS: QB

...but... but... but, just last week you said....
 
It's kind of unusual for me how he has all 3 QBs right next to each other. It's like he couldn't find a place to put them and just put them all in one spot.

Kiper is so dumb. I guess most of his wild swings are over until next week when he likely shoots Donald up about 10 picks. That should be the last one unless something weird happens.

Just you wait! You'll see... Mel-Hair-Gel is smart!!
Remember how he right he was about Reggie Bush

...oh wait...

Well, he's better with QBs. what about how he called Brady Quinn being a superstar! Yeah, that's the guy he was real high on...

...oh crap...no wait...

ummm... just gimme a minute...

:kitten:
 
Kiper media call today...

Dan Kadar ‏@MockingTheDraft
About 61 minutes.

That does it for the Kiper call. We now return you to your regularly scheduled inanity.

Kiper said Jarvis Landry was never going to be a speed guy. "He's sure handed, can play inside or outside. He's a two or three. Always been"

Kiper thinks the most underrated RB in the draft this year is Terrance West. He thinks he carried his team.

Kiper thinks five guards go in the second or early third, with Nevada's Joel Bitonio among them.

Kiper: I would not be surprised if 2016 if we're talking about him as a tight end.

Kiper on Logan Thomas: I he doesn't get it done at QB, then you could have a potential tight end on your hands.

Lol, Kiper rates Logan Thomas as a 4th or 5th rounder and could be a TE, but thinks there's a possibility he gets taken in the second round

Kiper thinks an interesting pick for Dallas is Anthony Barr. He'd be the only pass rusher in play for Dallas at No. 16.

Now Kiper wonders if AJ McCarron is a right-handed Matt Leinart.

Kiper said there isn't a better open-field tackler in the draft than CJ Mosley. He has him going No. 21 to Green Bay.

Kiper thinks Zack Martin of Notre Dame could be in the mix for Pittsburgh in the first round because of his versatility.

Kiper says Cyril Richardson has dropped into the fourth round mix.

Kiper doesn't think a guard goes in the first round. Mentions David Yankey as the first guard.

He thinks the Rams will be a "trending" team after the draft if they can keep Sam Bradford upright.

Kiper thinks the Rams could be active as well, moving down from No. 2 or up for No. 13.

He thinks teams could be on the move for LTs, WRs or a player like Eric Ebron.

Kiper thinks the Browns and Falcons could be active on trades during the draft.

Kiper just said Khalil Mack would be "a real nice pick" for Houston at No. 1.

Kiper thinks Michigan's Michael Schofield could be a starting RT in the NFL and a third or fourth round pick.

Kiper thinks top 10 is a little high for HaHa Clinton-Dix, who is more in the 12-25 range of the first round.

Even with Eric Decker, Kiper thinks the Jets could choose a WR in the 1st round.

Kiper says CB Walt Aikens really helped himself at the Senior Bowl and is in the third or fourth round range.

Kiper thinks Jace Amaro is a round two or three pick. 0_o

Kiper thinks Ss Clinton-Dix and Pryor are both first rounders, but Pryor is a fringe 1st. He thinks Deone Bucannon drops to the third round.

Kiper just dropped a nugget on Kendall James of Maine, his eighth rated CB. Called him the biggest sleeper CB in the draft.

Pointing out Greg Hardy, Jared Allen, Everson Griffen, Kiper says you don't have to take a pass rusher early if you scout well.

Kiper still sees Moncrief as an early second round pick, or possibly first to a team in the back end like Seattle or Carolina.

Kiper: Donte Moncrief is an enigma. You would have thought he dominated college corners. Didn't materialize into (a top 10 player).

Because of the disinterest in the position, Kiper thinks Mizzou RB Henry Josey could be a priority FA.

Kiper said the consensus from teams is that Kony Ealy is a fringe first round pick.

Kiper thinks the Lions should still be in play for Mike Evans, but a TE or a CB is possible if they're ranked that highly.

Kiper thinks Kyle Van Noy is as third rounder as a versatile LB and Cody Hoffman is an early Day 3 pick.

Kiper also mentioned AJ McCarron as a possibility for the Browns in the second round.

Kiper said if the Browns don't take a QB at four, Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo could be in play at 26 or in the second round.

Kiper views WR Brandon Coleman as an early Day 3 pick in the draft.

Kiper has Tajh Boyd as a round 4-7 pick.

Kiper thinks Sammy Watkins No. 4, 5 or 7, depending on where the QBs land.

Kiper thinks Kony Ealy is a late 1, early 2. DeMarcus Lawrence is round three player for him.

Kiper said Ebron is a glorified wide receiver. "He's a threat a great, great receiving entity."

Kiper on Ebron and the Giants: They certainly could use an Eric Ebron. If he doesn't go 12, he could fall to 17.

In his latest mock draft, Kiper has Johnny Manziel No. 8 to Minnesota, but could see him go as high as three.

Kiper sees San Diego and New Orleans as spots for Auburn DE/OLB Dee Ford.

Kiper thinks that OT Greg Robinson will grade out as the top player on some teams' draft boards.

Kiper thinks Beckham is a 1st (KC or Clev., maybe NYJ), Jeremy Hill is a 4th or 5th rounder and Jarvis Landry a second rounder.

Kiper said Clowney is still a top three talent, but not to St. Louis. He thinks if Houston passes a team will want to trade with the Rams.

Kiper thinks round three or four for Bruce Ellington of South Carolina. Early Day 3 for CB Victor Hampton.
h
Hopping on a call with Mel Kiper at 9:30. If you're not a fan, you may want to unfollow until 11ish.
 
Mock 3.0
1. Houston Texans: LB Khalil Mack, Buffalo
The Texans are in some ways like Kansas City drafting at No. 1 last year in that they don't fit the profile of a team drafting so high. The personnel situation isn't terrible; the defense can keep them in games; they have a new head coach who has a good track record with quarterbacks and may not be content to wait on a rookie QB to develop when he could be winning. Mack is a fit in most systems, but he'd excel in this system as a pass-rusher and a player who can back up and make plays in space and to the edges. Houston hasn't been active in free agency, but Mack can fill a role and be a key contributor early for a team that can start winning again. And it's been almost a full year since a player from the MAC went No. 1, right?


2. St. Louis Rams: T Greg Robinson, Auburn
Even with the strange change of direction on Rodger Saffold, given the concerns about Jake Long's ability to stay healthy, starter ability at tackle is still a major question, and the Rams can't afford to be thin up front in 2014. I think this is an obvious spot where a trade could happen, but if you have the chance to draft a potential star at tackle in the same year you need to find out if the QB you've paid a lot of money is worth it, you may not want to overthink it. Robinson can be a special player, and the Rams would improve up front with him around, starting in Week 1.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
The Jags have done some work in free agency, with the addition of versatile defensive lineman Red Bryant among the notables. And while they need a quarterback, I don't think they'd pass on the most talented player in the draft if he's around at No. 3. The Jags decided to re-sign Chad Henne, and while I don't think they did so based on the idea he's an immovable object at starter, I do think they believe they can win football games with him starting if they improve everywhere else. And Clowney certainly improves a pass rush that we've been talking about as a draft priority for way too long.

4. Cleveland Browns: QB Blake Bortles, UCF
The Browns have already released Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell. In other words, the writing is on the wall and the depth chart has a pretty big vacancy. So they'll keep Brian Hoyer as a possible starter and draft a QB at this spot knowing it's not such a bad place for a young QB to succeed, given their ability to pass-block up front and the fact that they have some dangerous weapons in the passing game in Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron. Yes, I can see either Teddy Bridgewater or Johnny Manziel here, but this is a bet on where the Browns end up after evaluating all of them closely.

5. Oakland Raiders: QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
The Raiders are actively trying to improve the offensive line in free agency, the Rodger Saffold soap opera not withstanding. Austin Howard is the one name in the fold so far. This is a possible trade-down slot given the many personnel needs this team still has, but it'd be hard to pass on the most NFL-ready QB in the draft, and a player who could help turn the franchise around. The current QB depth chart in Oakland simply doesn't promise much, so Bridgewater has the potential to play early and not just survive, but change the fortunes and direction of the franchise.

6. Atlanta Falcons: T Jake Matthews, Texas A&M

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson

8. Minnesota Vikings: QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
As I talk to teams, I get the sense there's a great deal of uncertainty around the quarterbacks in this draft. But there's a point where uncertainty turns into a reasonable bet, and Manziel at this point on the board is closer to the latter. There are some decent weapons in place in Minnesota for Manziel. There's a great deal of uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball here, but it doesn't outweigh the questions at QB. Manziel could be the solution and, drafted here, there's no question he'd come in with a chip on his shoulder.

9. Buffalo Bills: T Taylor Lewan, Michigan

10. Detroit Lions: WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M

11. Tennessee Titans: OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA

12. New York Giants: TE Eric Ebron, UNC

13. St. Louis Rams: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama

14. Chicago Bears: DT Aaron Donald, Pitt

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

16. Dallas Cowboys: DT Timmy Jernigan, Florida State

17. Baltimore Ravens: WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State

18. New York Jets: WR Odell Beckham Jr., LSU

19. Miami Dolphins: T Zack Martin, Notre Dame

20. Arizona Cardinals: CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State

21. Green Bay Packers: LB C.J. Mosley, Alabama

22. Philadelphia Eagles: S Calvin Pryor, Louisville

23. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Marqise Lee, USC

24. Cincinnati Bengals: LB Ryan Shazier, Ohio State

25. San Diego Chargers: CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State

26. Cleveland Browns: WR Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State

27. New Orleans Saints: DE Dee Ford, Auburn

28. Carolina Panthers: T Cyrus Kouandijo, Alabama

29. New England Patriots: DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota

30. San Francisco 49ers: CB Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech

31. Denver Broncos: LB Chris Borland, Wisconsin

32. Seattle Seahawks: DE Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame
 
Kiper
On Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel: “You could put him at three; you could put him at four; you could put him at five; you could put him at eight. I put him at eight to Minnesota. I doesn't look like Houston, right now, will go that route. He’s fluid anywhere between the third pick and the eighth pick.”
 
More "evidence" to the strength of the QBs in this class. They've traded Gabbert away & signed Henne... but they'll pass on Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel something not right.

History would suggest that following Jacksonville's lead in the draft is not a very good idea.

That's not to say that this is a great QB class because it isn't. But I wouldn't use other teams' evaluations to make my decisions.
 
More "evidence" to the strength of the QBs in this class. They've traded Gabbert away & signed Henne... but they'll pass on Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel something not right.

Quoting Mel Kiper and using him as 'evidence' is a slippery slope. He blows in the wind every gust that comes through. I think he's one of the least credible sources to use to validate a point.
 
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