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Keenum In The 5th Or 6th Round?
- Thread starter gary
- Start date
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
Definitely, but not before the 5th, and only if we lose Lienart or if Schaub is not expected to play next year.
badboy
Hall of Fame
regardless of "system" his stats are astronomical. He does know how to throw a pass. Yards per attempt almost 9.5 and TDs 48 to only 5 INTs is sick.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/191981/case-keenum
What's the point? Are we looking for the next Tony Romo or Tj Yates?
If we're looking for a career back-up, I can see it. If we're looking for Schaub insurance..... we need someone who won't make it past the 2nd round.
If we're looking for a career back-up, I can see it. If we're looking for Schaub insurance..... we need someone who won't make it past the 2nd round.
PapaL
Loose Screw
Every year this board becomes enamored w a Texas kid and how we should draft him. To date none of them have panned out to be better than what we have.
This kid was a great college system QB. How many times has that translated into the NFL? I'm sure we'll see him lighting up the arena league real soon.
Just saying...
This kid was a great college system QB. How many times has that translated into the NFL? I'm sure we'll see him lighting up the arena league real soon.
Just saying...
The Colts may like Luck's atheticism and "potential" enough to take him.
They might decide they like RG III a little better due to his overall quickness both with his arms and legs.
But they will be smart if they take Keenum with their #1 pick.
I hope they don't.
This kid has top football IQ - it's way off the chart.
The next Drew Brees here.
The only downside is he needs to be careful not to subject himself to uneccessary hits.
This comes from a guy (me) who had correctly assessed Newton as the #1 pick last year and Gabbert not worthy of first round status.
The Colts offense also fits Keenum's game very well while Luck is more suited to the Texans'.
I will really hate to see the Colts draft him.
They might decide they like RG III a little better due to his overall quickness both with his arms and legs.
But they will be smart if they take Keenum with their #1 pick.
I hope they don't.
This kid has top football IQ - it's way off the chart.
The next Drew Brees here.
The only downside is he needs to be careful not to subject himself to uneccessary hits.
This comes from a guy (me) who had correctly assessed Newton as the #1 pick last year and Gabbert not worthy of first round status.
The Colts offense also fits Keenum's game very well while Luck is more suited to the Texans'.
I will really hate to see the Colts draft him.
Smart would be taking Blackmon or Kalil; heck, even Coples(?) with their first & Keenum with their second.
TexanSam
Hall of Fame
Smart? Keenum isn't a highly rated QB prospect in this draft as far as I'm aware. Taking Keenum in the first would be the ultimate reach. Why would they do that? If they want Keenum they can have him...in the 3rd day of the draft.
That would be too scary to think about.
Keenum and that NO offensive line (with a couple of years under his belt), the Saints won't miss Drew Brees.
I believed Brees was the first pick in the second round back then.
The Colts with Blackmon in there will be trouble as well.
Keenum isn't going to waste too much time in the pocket.
But either Blackmon or a good O-lineman would turn that offense around pretty quickly with Keenum in there.
We'll see.
I'm pretty confident my statement will be closer to reality comes draft day (baring injury os some sort of unexpected set back.)
If Keenum has the size of Luck, he would be a no-brainer as the #1 overall pick.
76...... old friend, what are you doing?
No one sees Keenum as a First round pick much less a #1 overall. Regardless how well you think he grades out in comparison, even if the Colts felt the same way, they would wait for him in the second round... just makes more sense.
Even if they miss, but trust me no one is going to take Keenum in the first, they can still get Foles from Arizona or Maybe even Tannehill will fall.
I understand you do your own analysis.... as do the 32 teams. But unless there is reason to believe Keenum is going to be a 1st round pick by some team..... the smart thing is to wait & get him in the second; not take him with the #1 overall.
I can't imagine what Keenum can do between now & the draft to make him a #1 overall pick over Luck & RGIII.
I never said that Keenum is a sure first rounder (and only due to his size.)
All I know is that each team wants to have a franchise QB.
I see Keenum as a franchise QB.
A team with a spread offense will do well taking a long look at his game tapes.
So far, all we hear is from people who are not in the war room of any NFL team.
If there's any sound coming from those rooms, they are the normal smoke and mirror stuffs.
Because no one else will be looking at him until mid-way through the second round at the earliest.
Says who?
Casserly, Reuter, Brooks, Harrison
WalterFootball
Kiper
I'm pretty sure Mayock will say the same as well.
The same Casserly who basically thought Newton will be a bust, yeah right!
The same Walterfootball that had Gabbert as the #2 QB last year.
The same Kiper who had Luck going #1 last year (no way in hell), Mallett going #7 (2nd ranked QB) and Newton as #8 (3rd ranked QB.)
Why would you want to believe in those guys?
Would you like to propose a wager?
I am fairly certain Keenum won't go in the first round, meaning the Colts can have him in the second if they wanted.
TK, read my post carefully.
Basically, I have said that similar to Drew Brees, Keenum's size may make teams think twice.
I would too, as a GM.
I will have to sit down and think really hard:
- Luck is a great athlete; he's pretty smart. He has good size. The percentage is he will last in the NFL.
- RG III is a different kind of athlete; he's very smooth. He can hurt defense both ways. He isn't much bigger than Keenum but he's also quite smart.
Perhaps his elusiveness will help him prolong his career (on the other hand, he might decide to try to evade one play more often than he should have...)
- Keenum, who was a running QB in HS (option), that has made an incredible transformation into a spread QB with off-the-chart football intelligence.
What kind of system do we currently have.
Which of these QBs fit our system the most.
For the Colts, it isn't Luck.
He isn't as fluid in the shotgun spread, a spot where a QB really needs to make split decision very often (as opposed to the WCO that relies less on the shotgun).
Both RG III and Keenum can be ready for their system early (like Dalton for the Bengals - This is a guy that many of those so-called "experts" had very little regard for.)
Personally, I had said that I watched him (Dalton) against the Cougars (in his freshman year) and I already saw a smart QB.
It doesn't matter where a guy is drafted.
The draft process is very dynamic.
We don't know what's going on behind close doors; who has the say.
Sometimes an owner will overide his football people.
Sometimes a defensive-minded coach just want "a sure thing" at the QB position.
My prognosis is simply that Keenum qualifies as a franchise QB, and some team will see that and draft him to be their QB of the future.
If a team (especially a spread offense) doesn't consider Keenum long and hard, I honestly think that their scouting department is very lacking.
His football IQ is up there among the best (around the same point in time in their respective career - and yes, I did watch Joe Montana's performance against the Coogs in the Ice Bowl when I was there at UH as a student.)
This is the number one trait for a successful QB at the NFL level.
I fail to see any kind of reasoning that doesn't consider the guy.
He is worthy of being considered for the number one pick.
That doesn't mean he's a lock... far from that... it only means that he should be in the conversation.
At the end of the day, I see him as a starter in the NFL (again, baring injury).
I don't know when, because even guys like Steve Young or Rodgers, or Brees still had to wait for their days.
For things to run normally (no set-back between now and draft day, more specifically, an injury), we can have a friendly wager regarding whether Keenum will be drafted in the first round.
If you lose you need to find an UH avatar (or you can borrow gwallaia' sig) to wear for a month.
You can name your wager of some sort; perhaps you may have a better idea?!?
On a side note, it's exciting time for me to talk about these three boys.
Luck is the hometown boy.
Keenum is from my Coogs.
RG III was to attend UH (Art Briles had recruited him).
When Briles took the Baylor job, I was happy for both of them.
I was confident that he (Briles - who is also a Cougar) will show people that his "gadget system" of an offense can score big in the Big 12 once he adds some recruits (that will come once you build it).
It was very logical for me that RG III followed Briles to Baylor.
I started adding Baylor to my watch-list then.
I knew about RG III long before many many Houstonians.
I was excited waiting for him to play for the Coogs but I had no bitterness when he followed Briles to Waco.
I cheered for RG III against Big 12 opponents.
Not because I was bitter about the old SWC break-up, but rather because - as I've said earlier - people was doubting Briles' offensive system.
The same system that RG III had been running, which is very similar to what the Coogs have been running even after Briles left.
The same system that gave Keenum the "system QB" label, but not RG III.
And when I say that Keenum runs that system better than RG III, people think I'm crazy.
It's pretty funny especially considering how so many people also has Wright as a top tier prospect.
Better receiver, better O-line, better defense.
Them too (RG III and Keenum) faced roughly the same level of defense, but Keenum's better numbers is a product of the system and he is but a third day prospect while RG III is regarded as the #2 QB prospect and his production is legit.
Funny, too funny!
Luck is the hometown boy.
Keenum is from my Coogs.
RG III was to attend UH (Art Briles had recruited him).
When Briles took the Baylor job, I was happy for both of them.
I was confident that he (Briles - who is also a Cougar) will show people that his "gadget system" of an offense can score big in the Big 12 once he adds some recruits (that will come once you build it).
It was very logical for me that RG III followed Briles to Baylor.
I started adding Baylor to my watch-list then.
I knew about RG III long before many many Houstonians.
I was excited waiting for him to play for the Coogs but I had no bitterness when he followed Briles to Waco.
I cheered for RG III against Big 12 opponents.
Not because I was bitter about the old SWC break-up, but rather because - as I've said earlier - people was doubting Briles' offensive system.
The same system that RG III had been running, which is very similar to what the Coogs have been running even after Briles left.
The same system that gave Keenum the "system QB" label, but not RG III.
And when I say that Keenum runs that system better than RG III, people think I'm crazy.
It's pretty funny especially considering how so many people also has Wright as a top tier prospect.
Better receiver, better O-line, better defense.
Them too (RG III and Keenum) faced roughly the same level of defense, but Keenum's better numbers is a product of the system and he is but a third day prospect while RG III is regarded as the #2 QB prospect and his production is legit.
Funny, too funny!
Brees and Keenumlook a lot alike statistically ....But Brees has an uncanny knack of escaping pressure. Thats what makes him a top tier Qb in the NFL.
Keenum has some gaudy stats , especially those TD/Int numbers , but I wouldnt take him before the 4th round.
His being 26 means he's a very seasoned player .... most 1st rounders are drafted on upside , his is limited.
(I do believe he canand will be a solid NFL starter , just not a 1st round talent).
Keenum has some gaudy stats , especially those TD/Int numbers , but I wouldnt take him before the 4th round.
His being 26 means he's a very seasoned player .... most 1st rounders are drafted on upside , his is limited.
(I do believe he canand will be a solid NFL starter , just not a 1st round talent).
TimeKiller
Guest
Keenum in the 2nd....
I sure hope so, that means someone else will drop to the Texans.
I sure hope so, that means someone else will drop to the Texans.
Doppelganger
None
Here are 20 reasons I wouldn't touch Keenum before the 6th.
Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan, Ty Detmer, Dan LeFevour, Tim Rattay, Ryan Lindley, Luke McCown, Chris Redman, Chase Daniel, Trevor Vittatoe, Kliff Kingsbury, Chase Holbrook, David Greene, Gino Guidugli, Todd Santos, Max Hall, Tim Hiller, Tim Lester, and Chris Leak.
Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan, Ty Detmer, Dan LeFevour, Tim Rattay, Ryan Lindley, Luke McCown, Chris Redman, Chase Daniel, Trevor Vittatoe, Kliff Kingsbury, Chase Holbrook, David Greene, Gino Guidugli, Todd Santos, Max Hall, Tim Hiller, Tim Lester, and Chris Leak.
Go back and look at the QBs "projected" to be drafted in the first 3 rounds.
Go back and look and some of the QBs that were drafted that early in the last few years.
Keenum had a common opponent with several of them, including:
Tebow, Pat White, McCoy, Dalton, Luck, RG III, Weeden, Tannerhill, etc.
In each case, Keenum put up a comparable or better performance against those opponents.
And nobody can say that Keenum had a better supporting cast (including his defense) than those QBs.
Go back and look and some of the QBs that were drafted that early in the last few years.
Keenum had a common opponent with several of them, including:
Tebow, Pat White, McCoy, Dalton, Luck, RG III, Weeden, Tannerhill, etc.
In each case, Keenum put up a comparable or better performance against those opponents.
And nobody can say that Keenum had a better supporting cast (including his defense) than those QBs.
Also, one needs to remember that Keenum finished his nights early in several games.
The two late games vs Penn St and S. Miss notwithstanding, there were 3 close games against UCLA, La Tech, and UTEP that he had to finish the game; otherwise he would be taken out (even as early as midway thru the third quarter in two games.)
Ga St 7:38 third qtr
Tulane 6:31 third qtr
North Texas 13:47
E. Car. 14:39
Marshal 12:08
Rice 10:18
UAB 10:45
SMU 4:10
And don't forget that because the Cougars scored so quickly, there were several games - most of them on the first half of the season - the TOP was very lopsided; a few games were as ridiculous as 1:2 (ie, the Cougars offense was on the field but some 20 mins as opposed to nearly 40 mins for the opponents.)
The two late games vs Penn St and S. Miss notwithstanding, there were 3 close games against UCLA, La Tech, and UTEP that he had to finish the game; otherwise he would be taken out (even as early as midway thru the third quarter in two games.)
Ga St 7:38 third qtr
Tulane 6:31 third qtr
North Texas 13:47
E. Car. 14:39
Marshal 12:08
Rice 10:18
UAB 10:45
SMU 4:10
And don't forget that because the Cougars scored so quickly, there were several games - most of them on the first half of the season - the TOP was very lopsided; a few games were as ridiculous as 1:2 (ie, the Cougars offense was on the field but some 20 mins as opposed to nearly 40 mins for the opponents.)
Yeah but.....
Can we keep it our little secret? Snag him in the 4th or 5th since he isn't on anyone else's radar?
Keenum may end up being better than some or all of those guys, but to say that he put up comparable numbers means nothing.
A lot of those teams ran the ball a lot more than UH did. Different offenses are more conducive to putting up different kind of stats.
Not only that, but the pace of most of those offenses is different. The schemes and the way players were used is different as well...
But the things you mention actually make a better case for Keenum.
1. If you read the S.Miss game break-down, you would see that the Coogs running game should have done better since the Golden Eagles moved defenders off the line to better defend the pass.
Look at all the failed third-down conversions; they were all due to the subpar running game (or a drop pass).
Remember that S. Miss was still able to bring pressure (under 3 secs) with a 4-man or 3-man rush.
When the running game can mustard only 55 yards on 31 attempts, does it help the QB?
2. A fast-paced (often time, a no huddle offense) helps prepare the QB for the NFL. When a guy can make many consecutive calls by himself or with some quick signal from the side line, it shows that he has complete command of the playbook. (And trust me, the playbook wasn't simple - there was a game where a commentator mentioned that the Coogs kept throwing out different plays one after another.) When you need a two-minute drill or when your team is down by a bunch and you need a guy who can operate fast, this is the guy.
...
I've already mentioned how Luck also benefited from the "system".
The PA with a strong running game in the WCO helped Luck just as it does Schaub (when the running game works well.)
The fact that Baylor ran more was due to Briles wanting to exploit the explosiveness of RG III. His running abilty opens up more opportunity in the passing game.
His potential is scary. If he can learn to improve the mental part of the game (pre-snap and post-snap reads, knowing where the pressure might come from, whether the defense is disguising coverage) he will be very dangerous.
The million-dollar question is how much can he improve.
His potential is a cut somewhere between Vick and Newton.
...
Back to Keenum, his ceiling has pretty much been reached.
He just needs to learn even more coverage disguises and to adapt to a faster defense (on occasions.)
Why do I say "on occasions"?
In college, he's already used to see his protection breaking down, pocket collapsing, lineman getting beat right off the bat.
In the pro, he will have a better O-line to compensate for faster D-linemen and blitzers.
The fact that Keenum didn't incur more sack was due to his ability to see the things mentioned above such that he can get rid of the ball very quickly.
The fact that he didn't have many passes batted down was due to his ability to vary his look (as not to telegraph his throw.)
If I was to compare Keenum with Luck, I would mention the common opponent: UCLA.
Keenum was under pressure left and right, while Luck had only a handful (you can count it with one hand.)
Or we can see the S. Miss game with all that pressure on Keenum, or the Penn St. game where he was under duress some 27 times.
On the other hand, against Notre Dame, for example, Luck was under pressure a total of 4 lousy occasions.
With a better receiving corp (faster, bigger, stronger), one that doesn't drop many passes, Keenum will remain an effective QB.
There will be instances where his size may hurt him, but there will be times when his receivers' size will help him.
Keenum may never become the next Drew Brees, but that potential is there.
You can isolate plays where the Coogs line up in the same formations as the Colts or the Saints or the Pats (or any other pro team or college team) and you will see many of the same passing patterns.
The Frogs, the Bears, and the Cowboys (Okl. St.) are some of those college teams. You can see how Keenum ran it better than Dalton, RG III and Weeden.
(Also, the are some videos out there that showed Keenum making play from under Center as well.)
In summary, the numbers by themselves mean little. How a QB goes about achieving those numbers is the key to evaluate a QB.
Keenum would have been very successful the same (more likely better) if he was on the Bears or the Cowboys squad last year.
PapaL
Loose Screw
That's a mighty steep fall from #1 overall to uphill climb to get drafted.
Keenum didn't look very good at all today. It really just looks like he doesn't have enough arm strength to make certain throws. Anything outside the numbers is going to be a huge risk of getting picked off because of this. I'm rooting like hell for the kid though to bounce back and have a huge pro day. He just looked completely out of sorts today.
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Wasn't a good setting for Keenum. In fact, none of the QBs looked really good. Jefferson might have been the best, and we've seen him suck for 4 years.
Outside of Luck & Griffin, this is a weak QB draft. I still think someone takes Keenum on the 3rd day. I think he'd be a good fit in Green Bay, who will be looking for a young backup.
If you listen to Rob Rang, your team would have the following QBs in the last four years:
2011 - Gabbert as a top ten pick (yeah right)
2010 - Jimmy Clausen as a top ten pick (see above)
2009 - Sanchez in the first round (open for debate)
2008 - Brian Brohm in the first round (hardly play, I think he's out of the NFL - bust)
2011 - Gabbert as a top ten pick (yeah right)
2010 - Jimmy Clausen as a top ten pick (see above)
2009 - Sanchez in the first round (open for debate)
2008 - Brian Brohm in the first round (hardly play, I think he's out of the NFL - bust)
Keenum was never known to have a big arm, but he can throw about as far as Yates (and a little farther than Schaub), roughly 50 yards (from the LOS - which as about 60 in the air.)
If a guy can overthrow a WR who runs somewhere around 4.44 (average for Edwards, who didn't run at the combine - seems like the hamstring or whatever that bothers him at the Sr Bowl practices still lingers), there's no reason to worry about his arm strength.
And we're talking about a straight fly route down the side line (free release).
The combine is not a place to watch a QB showcasing his arm; we'd have to wait for his pro day.
Personally, I don't need to. I know what Keenum's accurcacy is on any route.
You watch him throw a thousand times (he had some 2,229 career attempts), you would know too.
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Case's lack of arm strength just really stood out on the out routes he was throwing. I agree it wasn't a good setting for him, but that's why they ask the QB's to throw those routes. It kind of exposes some things about them if they lack in this area. In the right West Coast offense he can make a team and be a long term backup, but I think that's about the extent of what he'll be able to do. I love the way Kolb was groomed by Andy Reid and I'd like to see Case go to a similar situation.
I don't think Green Bay is a good offense for him personally. They ask for their QB's to drive the ball down the field and I think that would expose his lack of arm strength more than anything. In college he was able to get away with a lot because guys were running wide open in that offense. We all know things aren't going to be like that at the next level. I love the way San Francisco used Alex Smith this year. To me that would be a pretty good place for him. He wasn't asked to make a lot of difficult throws and they got the ball out quick. The only thing is they drafted a young QB last year, but he needs to go to a place where the couch realizes what he can do well and play to it.
I just went back to check my own thread (breaking down of the S. Miss game, in this same subforum - you probably missed it.)
Keenum did not attempt any pass longer than 29 yards due to:
- Coverage scheme taking Edwards and any deep route (that I can see from the TV screen)
- Constant pressure with either 3 or 4 man pass rush.
There are a few highlights out there showing Keenum completed nice passes downfield on the run.
I have a bunch of highlights bookmarked, but I don't think I want to spend the time digging for throws on the run.
If you want to, I can provide all the link and you can look for yourself.
Keenum did not attempt any pass longer than 29 yards due to:
- Coverage scheme taking Edwards and any deep route (that I can see from the TV screen)
- Constant pressure with either 3 or 4 man pass rush.
There are a few highlights out there showing Keenum completed nice passes downfield on the run.
I have a bunch of highlights bookmarked, but I don't think I want to spend the time digging for throws on the run.
If you want to, I can provide all the link and you can look for yourself.