The Chronicle reported this morning that the number will need to be below $24MM because of the pro-rating issue identified correctly by OG (note that there has been talk that the assumptions by McLain about Smith's contract and the prorating of his bonus are wrong)
QUOTE]
http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/9393943
Adam Schefter is reporting the same thing. Check out the second item in the above article. He writes :
"But here's something else to remember. One prominent agent said the deal for the No. 1 pick cannot include any more than $21 million of guaranteed money -- $3 million less than the San Francisco 49ers gave last year to No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith.
The reason for this is that Smith's contract was over six years with an option for a seventh, while the contract for this year's No. 1 pick will be over five years with an option for a sixth. The numbers make it so that an agent will have to be highly creative, brilliant even, and that might not be enough to concoct a scenario under which this year's No. 1 overall pick will be guaranteed as much money as in Smith's six-year, $49.5 million deal. "
btw... If you re-read McClain's article he says the top bonus number will be $22M not $24M.
"...it will be impossible for the top pick to get as much as $22 million guaranteed, compared with the guaranteed $24 million that San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith received last year."
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/3816986.html