Hottoddie"s "Trade-A-Rama" Mock Draft

[Hottoddie]

Okay, so it's only two trades. The ol' bait & switch title.

Let me start this by saying that it’s my belief we should trade down & take Phil Taylor in the first round. With us switching to a 3-4 this year we’re going to need a stud NT. The only veteran NT’s that we might find in free agency are going to be 30+ year old players past their prime or injury prone players that another team finally gave up on. Stud NT’s are like franchise QB’s & CB’s, they don’t come along everyday & teams don’t just let them walk. I’m not saying we shouldn’t try to pick up a veteran NT, just don’t expect him to be the long term answer.

I know that Wade doesn’t run a traditional 3-4, but the glue that makes a 3-4 so effective is a D’line that can control the line of scrimmage. As of this moment, we don’t have a DT that commands a double team when he steps on the field. That’s 5 against 3. If our 3 only tie up 3 of their 5, then that leaves two 300+ lb linemen to help the RB & TE pick up any blitzing defenders. I think we’ll lose in that instance.

Okay, let’s get to it. I’m proposing two different trades that I think could happen if the stars align just right.

Trade #1

San Diego sends picks #18 (1st) & #50 (2nd) to Houston for pick #11. San Diego has two 2nd round picks. Thinking that Minnesota will select J.J. Watts at #12, they trade with us & select him at #11. That’s 1250 pts given by Houston & 1300 pts given by San Diego. Houston selects Phil Taylor at #18.

Trade #2

Houston thinking that Brooks Reed will be selected late in the first calls New England & gives them picks #42 (2nd) & #73 (3rd) in exchange for picks #28 (1st) & #124 (4th). That’s 715 pts given by Houston & 708 pts received. We might have to throw in another mid to late round pick next year, if they want a bigger discrepancy in points. With pick #28 Houston selects Brooks Reed.

The rest of the draft is as follows. I'm assuming we get a 7th round pick for the loss of Dunta, so 7b is that pick.

1a) Phil Taylor (NT) – Massive player that is extremely strong & quick on his feet. Demands a double team to keep him out of the backfield. Has good lateral movement for a man his size & can collapse the pocket.

1b) Brooks Reed (OLB) – If Justin Houston slips to this spot, he will be the pick here. Reed has a non stop motor & good quickness off the snap. He’s very strong & relentless with a closing burst. Good instincts & a reliable tackler.

2) Quinton Carter (SS/FS) – I struggled with choosing Carter or Davon House (CB) here, but chose Carter due to his versatility. Carter will be projected as our starting SS, but he can play FS & slide over to CB to fill in on CB blitzes. He has excellent speed to stick with receivers & very good recovery/closing speed. He brings the wood when he tackles & has good hands for the interception.

4a) Chris Culliver (FS/CB) – Culliver has been a relative unknown until just recently. He’s a CB with 4.36 speed that has been converted to FS. He has good instincts, size & is rarely out of position. Has a nice closing burst, good hands & is a reliable open field tackler.

4b) Stephen Burton (WR) – Excellent speed (4.38) at 6’1” 224lbs., soft hands & very strong. He had an excellent 10 yard split of 1.46. He could make a very nice compliment to AJ as our #2 WR. He has experience as a kick returner as well.

5) Ryan Jones (CB) – Jones runs a 4.42 forty & has shown improvement every year. He was ninth in the nation last year with 6 INT’s & 13 PBU’s & he was 5th in the nation with 19 passes defended. His level of competition is questionable, but his ballhawking skills are not. He’s also a very good special teams player.

6) Mario Harvey (ILB) – Harvey is a tackling machine & we’ll be lucky if he’s still on the board at this pick. He’s got great speed (4.43), great instincts, excellent strength & plays very physical. He has a knack for getting to the QB & is a very good tackler. His pass defense skills are questionable.

7a) Zack Williams (C) – Williams has good strength & speed. He adds depth to the line & can be groomed to take over center in a year or two.

7b) Mario Addison (OLB) – Very quick, athletic & tough player. He played most of last year in a cast after he broke his hand. He’s a non stop guy with very good technique, but needs to work on his pass defense skills as well as adding more moves to his pass rushing skills.


Let me know what you think.

 

[drs23]

I like this one better than the first. Does that count?

 

[Hottoddie]

I like this one better than the first. Does that count?

That counts.

 

[aussie_texan]

nice work interesting.

love the 2nd round pick in carter, exactly what u think as in he offers a lot of flexibility and i think he would fit in extremely well into the SS that wade likes (i.e. not in the box guy ....pollard, and more of a coverage player.) even though he can hit hard!!!!!

also ryan jones would be a good pick up to add to depth at CB.

However im not all in on p.taylor.
reed is a good pick but i would rather us get a OLB in the 1st like r.quinn. but if his not there then i would be happy with reed in the 2nd.

the reason why i dont think we should select taylor is because i think there is very good value at NT in the later rounds.

Im praying for ian williams from notre dame in the 4th.
for me, he offers great strength at the point of attack, and can easily handle run stopping duties and double teams. he has NO pass rush but on 3rd downs we can bring in a guy like mitchell to offer that.

but overall i like your draft...a few different names in there that we have not heard from before.

 

[steelbtexan]

Rick probably wont be able to pull off 1 trade much less 2.

I would take House over Carter,

He's my # 2 rated CB behind Peterson.

 

[dc_txtech]

Rick probably wont be able to pull off 1 trade much less 2.QUOTE]

Where do you get this crap?

 

[powda]

Rick will pull off at least 1 trade so we'll end up with 1 extra 5th,6th, or 7th round pick plus whatever compensation we get for "pay me rick".

As far as the the mock? Well i like the effort and mock drafts are supposed to have entertainment value right?

I may be wrong but isnt the consensus that Minnesota will be looking for a quarterback?

As far as the players----uhhhh----i will have a stroke if we draft taylor in the first followed by a coronary if we draft reed in the first. I guess what im trying to say is im not really down with your players...

 

[Hottoddie]

nice work interesting.

love the 2nd round pick in carter, exactly what u think as in he offers a lot of flexibility and i think he would fit in extremely well into the SS that wade likes (i.e. not in the box guy ....pollard, and more of a coverage player.) even though he can hit hard!!!!!

also ryan jones would be a good pick up to add to depth at CB.

However im not all in on p.taylor.
reed is a good pick but i would rather us get a OLB in the 1st like r.quinn. but if his not there then i would be happy with reed in the 2nd.

the reason why i dont think we should select taylor is because i think there is very good value at NT in the later rounds.

Im praying for ian williams from notre dame in the 4th.
for me, he offers great strength at the point of attack, and can easily handle run stopping duties and double teams. he has NO pass rush but on 3rd downs we can bring in a guy like mitchell to offer that.

but overall i like your draft...a few different names in there that we have not heard from before.

Thanks for the compliment.

I haven't been sold on Carter until recently & was more interested in Jeron Johnson as a SS, but with his versatility & the emergence of Culliver at FS I changed my mind. I'm also feeling very strongly that the Texans will go after a veteran FS in free agency this year. That'll allow Culliver to be used in nickle & dime packages while learning the nuances of FS in the NFL. You have to admit that it'll be nice to have a couple of safeties back there with great speed & that can actually catch the ball.

I disagree with you about Ian Williams. I don't think he can consistently hold the point under double teams. While he's extremely strong & quick, @ 310 lbs., he's just not big enough. My thinking is he's best suited for DT in a 4-3.

I believe that after Taylor there is a huge drop-off at the NT position this year. At this point in time, I'd only consider Jerrell Powe or Kenrick Ellis in the 2nd/3rd & possibly Blaine Sumner in the later rounds. I'm a firm believer in building the foundation (the line) first. Besides, we already have three pretty good linebackers in DeMeco, Cushing & Barwin (assuming they all come back healthy). Adding a player like Quinn to that mix would give us one of the best starting linebacker corps in the NFL. But, if the line can't tie up anymore than 3 O'linemen at a time, then all that talent is wasted.

 

[otisbean]

I'm not big on Taylor in rd 1. I love Reid though. I think he'll be a player. Regarding Ian Willams, as a strength coach I can tell you this, a 310lb guy can anchor as well as a 330 if he's stronger and more powerful. Anchoring is about strength/power and leverage, not neccessarily bulk

 

[Hottoddie]

Rick probably wont be able to pull off 1 trade much less 2.

I would take House over Carter,

He's my # 2 rated CB behind Peterson.

I disagree with your comment about Rick. You have to have a little faith in the front office. Also, keep in mind that the Texans have gone out & hired a high profile defensive coordinator & have indicated that he'll get what he wants to turn this defense around. That tells me the usual mind set in the War Room will change this year. I truely believe it will.

I really did struggle with that choice & actually had House in the 2nd round until just before the end. The versatility that Carter brings was the difference maker for me.

 

[mussop]

Rick will pull off at least 1 trade so will end up with 1 extra 5th,6th, or 7th round pick plus whatever compensation we get for "pay me rick".

As far as the the mock? Well i like the effort and mock drafts are supposed to have entertainment value right?

I may be wrong but isnt the consensus that Minnesota will be looking for a quarterback?

As far as the players----uhhhh----i will have a stroke if we draft taylor in the first followed by a coronary if we draft reed in the first. I guess what im trying to say is im not really down with your players...

Shoot getting the best Pure 3/4 NT in the first wouldn't be sexy but we sure as hell need one in the worst way. Reed in the second is a good pick too. I think he'll be a better pro than college player as long as he's used right. He has everything you look for in an 3/4 olb.

 

[rmartin65]

Okay, so it's only two trades. The ol' bait & switch title.

Let me start this by saying that it’s my belief we should trade down & take Phil Taylor in the first round. With us switching to a 3-4 this year we’re going to need a stud NT. The only veteran NT’s that we might find in free agency are going to be 30+ year old players past their prime or injury prone players that another team finally gave up on. Stud NT’s are like franchise QB’s & CB’s, they don’t come along everyday & teams don’t just let them walk. I’m not saying we shouldn’t try to pick up a veteran NT, just don’t expect him to be the long term answer.

I know that Wade doesn’t run a traditional 3-4, but the glue that makes a 3-4 so effective is a D’line that can control the line of scrimmage. As of this moment, we don’t have a DT that commands a double team when he steps on the field. That’s 5 against 3. If our 3 only tie up 3 of their 5, then that leaves two 300+ lb linemen to help the RB & TE pick up any blitzing defenders. I think we’ll lose in that instance.

Okay, let’s get to it. I’m proposing two different trades that I think could happen if the stars align just right.

Trade #1

San Diego sends picks #18 (1st) & #50 (2nd) to Houston for pick #11. San Diego has two 2nd round picks. Thinking that Minnesota will select J.J. Watts at #12, they trade with us & select him at #11. That’s 1250 pts given by Houston & 1300 pts given by San Diego. Houston selects Phil Taylor at #18.

Trade #2

Houston thinking that Brooks Reed will be selected late in the first calls New England & gives them picks #42 (2nd) & #73 (3rd) in exchange for picks #28 (1st) & #124 (4th). That’s 715 pts given by Houston & 708 pts received. We might have to throw in another mid to late round pick next year, if they want a bigger discrepancy in points. With pick #28 Houston selects Brooks Reed.

The rest of the draft is as follows. I'm assuming we get a 7th round pick for the loss of Dunta, so 7b is that pick.

1a) Phil Taylor (NT) – Massive player that is extremely strong & quick on his feet. Demands a double team to keep him out of the backfield. Has good lateral movement for a man his size & can collapse the pocket.

1b) Brooks Reed (OLB) – If Justin Houston slips to this spot, he will be the pick here. Reed has a non stop motor & good quickness off the snap. He’s very strong & relentless with a closing burst. Good instincts & a reliable tackler.

2) Quinton Carter (SS/FS) – I struggled with choosing Carter or Davon House (CB) here, but chose Carter due to his versatility. Carter will be projected as our starting SS, but he can play FS & slide over to CB to fill in on CB blitzes. He has excellent speed to stick with receivers & very good recovery/closing speed. He brings the wood when he tackles & has good hands for the interception.

4a) Chris Culliver (FS/CB) – Culliver has been a relative unknown until just recently. He’s a CB with 4.36 speed that has been converted to FS. He has good instincts, size & is rarely out of position. Has a nice closing burst, good hands & is a reliable open field tackler.

4b) Stephen Burton (WR) – Excellent speed (4.38) at 6’1” 224lbs., soft hands & very strong. He had an excellent 10 yard split of 1.46. He could make a very nice compliment to AJ as our #2 WR. He has experience as a kick returner as well.

5) Ryan Jones (CB) – Jones runs a 4.42 forty & has shown improvement every year. He was ninth in the nation last year with 6 INT’s & 13 PBU’s & he was 5th in the nation with 19 passes defended. His level of competition is questionable, but his ballhawking skills are not. He’s also a very good special teams player.

6) Mario Harvey (ILB) – Harvey is a tackling machine & we’ll be lucky if he’s still on the board at this pick. He’s got great speed (4.43), great instincts, excellent strength & plays very physical. He has a knack for getting to the QB & is a very good tackler. His pass defense skills are questionable.

7a) Zack Williams (C) – Williams has good strength & speed. He adds depth to the line & can be groomed to take over center in a year or two.

7b) Mario Addison (OLB) – Very quick, athletic & tough player. He played most of last year in a cast after he broke his hand. He’s a non stop guy with very good technique, but needs to work on his pass defense skills as well as adding more moves to his pass rushing skills.


Let me know what you think.

First- I appreciate the obvious effort that you put into this.

Phil Taylor- I dont really like him. One year wonder that has struggled with weight in the past. If he continues to play like he did last year he will be a good NT, but that is a big if, and a chance I would prefer not to take.

Brooks Reed- I like the player, but I feel that you are overvaluing him. He is solid second value.

Carter & Culliver are money, great job.

Stephen Burton- simply not a 4th round pick. Has potential to be a good player, but I would not take him before the 6th. He is just too raw a route runner, and his playing speed/athleticism does not match his workout numbers. I could see a team taking a gamble on him this early, but again, its not choice I would like the Texans to make.

Ryan Jones- Continuing your trend, Jones is taken a bit too early. Small school player (generally) rise in the lead up to the draft, but fall during the draft. Jones is a heck of an athlete, but needs a lot of work to become a NFL corner.

It is hard to argue with your last 3 picks, so I will not attempt to.

To sum up, I like most of the players in your draft, but you take them a bit early, in my opinion.

 

[Hottoddie]

Rick will pull off at least 1 trade so will end up with 1 extra 5th,6th, or 7th round pick plus whatever compensation we get for "pay me rick".

As far as the the mock? Well i like the effort and mock drafts are supposed to have entertainment value right?

I may be wrong but isnt the consensus that Minnesota will be looking for a quarterback?

As far as the players----uhhhh----i will have a stroke if we draft taylor in the first followed by a coronary if we draft reed in the first. I guess what im trying to say is im not really down with your players...

I've seen a couple of different scenarios with Minnesota. QB is the #1 priority, but I guess it depends upon what QB's are available at #12. I've heard that they really like Locker, but with Carolina, Buffalo, Tennessee, San Francisco, Washington & possibly Cinncinati showing interest in a QB, I could see both Locker & Mallett being taken in the top 10. If that happens then Minnesota could pick up one of the next tiered QB's in the 2nd round.

J.J. Watts fills a need for Minnesota at DE & would be very tempting for them at #12. Besides, there's no way Watts drops to #18 & if a team like San Diego fell in love with him (like they did with Ryan Matthews last year), they'd have to move up to get him. This would be an instance where Rick would have to pick the phone up & sell the pick to them.

 

[Ole Miss Texan]

Great work!

I like the trade down with SD... NE is a team that could target Watt too.

I'm not a fan of selecting Taylor here though. I'd target him a the top of the 2nd round, close to where Reed may be. Thinking of having the 18th selection, there's a ton of teams behind us now that need OL help and there could be some good players available. I'd love to move down with a team like Philly so they could have "their" guy. If we could move down to 23, I may even take Reed there?

I agree with the thought of trading up with NE at 28 if we target Reed. I don't think he lasts to our 2nd round pick. Late 1st looks like a good spot for him and I'd love the selection.

As for nose tackle, check out Chris Neild from West Virginia. I've been reading a lot good stuff on him being one of the better 3-4 nt.

 

[Hottoddie]

I'm not big on Taylor in rd 1. I love Reid though. I think he'll be a player. Regarding Ian Willams, as a strength coach I can tell you this, a 310lb guy can anchor as well as a 330 if he's stronger and more powerful. Anchoring is about strength/power and leverage, not neccessarily bulk

I agree with your point. However in this case, I still don't think Williams is capable of holding the point over the course of the game.

 

[Hottoddie]

Great work!

I like the trade down with SD... NE is a team that could target Watt too.

I'm not a fan of selecting Taylor here though. I'd target him a the top of the 2nd round, close to where Reed may be. Thinking of having the 18th selection, there's a ton of teams behind us now that need OL help and there could be some good players available. I'd love to move down with a team like Philly so they could have "their" guy. If we could move down to 23, I may even take Reed there?

I agree with the thought of trading up with NE at 28 if we target Reed. I don't think he lasts to our 2nd round pick. Late 1st looks like a good spot for him and I'd love the selection.

As for nose tackle, check out Chris Neild from West Virginia. I've been reading a lot good stuff on him being one of the better 3-4 nt.

Thanks.

I know that Taylor is not the sexy pick most of us like to see taken in the first round, but he's the best NT in this draft & offers the complete package. While I'm not saying Taylor is even remotely close to Ngata, Seymour, Hampton or Pat Williams, knowing what we know now, would you draft him in the first round if you knew he would turn out like one of those guys?

He can control the POA, easily handle double teams, split double teams to get into the backfield, is very agile for a man this size & can slide down the line, doesn't take plays off when on the field, has shown a lot of maturity & is a great tackler.

I looked at Neild & think he could be a solid rotation guy, but he's got a long ways to go to come up to Taylor's level & might not ever get that good. But he's definitely worth taking in the later rounds.

 

[Hottoddie]

First- I appreciate the obvious effort that you put into this.

Phil Taylor- I dont really like him. One year wonder that has struggled with weight in the past. If he continues to play like he did last year he will be a good NT, but that is a big if, and a chance I would prefer not to take.

I can understand your reservations, but he showed flashes of what he's capable of when he was at Penn State. His sophmore year he put up 20 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 3 sacks & 2 fumble recoveries while playing in a reserve role off the bench. He had to sit out the 2008 season after his off field troubles & subsequent transfer to Baylor. He battled turf toe after the fifth game of the 2009 season & never really got anything started. He really stepped it up in 2010. I normally don't like players that appear to be one year wonders & I do see your point, but I believe the talent is there in this kid & he's ready to take it to the next level.

Brooks Reed- I like the player, but I feel that you are overvaluing him. He is solid second value.

I think he may have moved into the bottom of round one with his 1.54 10 yard split during the combine.

Carter & Culliver are money, great job.

Thanks.

Stephen Burton- simply not a 4th round pick. Has potential to be a good player, but I would not take him before the 6th. He is just too raw a route runner, and his playing speed/athleticism does not match his workout numbers. I could see a team taking a gamble on him this early, but again, its not choice I would like the Texans to make.

I originally had Denarius Moore as my selection here, but 4.38 speed from a 6'1" 224 lb. WR with soft hands & the ability to do returns swayed me over in the end. I could go with either one of them.

Ryan Jones- Continuing your trend, Jones is taken a bit too early. Small school player (generally) rise in the lead up to the draft, but fall during the draft. Jones is a heck of an athlete, but needs a lot of work to become a NFL corner.

I originally had him slotted with our 1st pick in the 7th round. But, his 4.42 speed, productivity (albeit at a small school), versatility on special teams & the increased interest in him around the league caused me to blink & move him to the 5th round.

It is hard to argue with your last 3 picks, so I will not attempt to.

To sum up, I like most of the players in your draft, but you take them a bit early, in my opinion.

Thanks again.

 

[Wolf6151]

Okay, so it's only two trades. The ol' bait & switch title.

Leave it to a woman to get a man all worked up and then leave him hanging.

I like the 1st trade down but Phil Taylor in the 1st round makes me nervous. I like the idea of trading back into the bottom of the 1st round but not for Reed, I'd take Justin Houston here.

 

[Hottoddie]

Leave it to a woman to get a man all worked up and then leave him hanging.

LOL

Last time I checked I was a dude & unless aliens kidnapped me & did some weird experiments on me, I still am.

I like the 1st trade down but Phil Taylor in the 1st round makes me nervous. I like the idea of trading back into the bottom of the 1st round but not for Reed, I'd take Justin Houston here.

I realize Taylor isn't the flashy player everyone falls in love with, but he is the kind of player that can make a huge difference in the success of a 3-4 defense.

I agree that I would take Houston over Brooks in that scenario, but I'll be real surprised if he's still on the board at #28 & even more surprised if New England would trade the pick away in that case.

 

[TimeKiller]

If this is how it played out, I think we'd all have to be pretty happy. Addressed the needs extremely well.

 

[steelbtexan]

I disagree with your comment about Rick. You have to have a little faith in the front office. Also, keep in mind that the Texans have gone out & hired a high profile defensive coordinator & have indicated that he'll get what he wants to turn this defense around. That tells me the usual mind set in the War Room will change this year. I truely believe it will.

I really did struggle with that choice & actually had House in the 2nd round until just before the end. The versatility that Carter brings was the difference maker for me.

If Rick has an above average draft. That will be his 1st in 5 yrs.

Those aren't good odds.

 

[Wolf6151]

LOL

Last time I checked I was a dude & unless aliens kidnapped me & did some weird experiments on me, I still am.

Sorry about that, I made an assumption based on screen name. I apologize.

 

[Corrosion]

This is one of the best mocks Ive seen as far as filling out the needs and getting premium talent where its needed. Maybe thats because I've had the same trade down idea of getting Taylor in the mid-late first and trading back up to get one of the top OLB's shortly there after. Ayers or Houston could still be on the board.

I would prefer to pick up another DE or OLB somewhere , maybe in place of the center in the 7th. You can never have enough pass rushers as we saw when Barwin went down .... the defense was never the same.


Might have to take Mario Harvey at least a round earlier and quite possibly at the 4b selection ..... other than that I think its pretty realistic.

 

[Hottoddie]

This is one of the best mocks Ive seen as far as filling out the needs and getting premium talent where its needed. Maybe thats because I've had the same trade down idea of getting Taylor in the mid-late first and trading back up to get one of the top OLB's shortly there after. Ayers or Houston could still be on the board.

I would prefer to pick up another DE or OLB somewhere , maybe in place of the center in the 7th. You can never have enough pass rushers as we saw when Barwin went down .... the defense was never the same.


Might have to take Mario Harvey at least a round earlier and quite possibly at the 4b selection ..... other than that I think its pretty realistic.

Thanks.

It does look like Mario Harvey is moving up the boards rather quickly & may have to be selected in the 4th or 5th round.

Here's a pretty good highlight film of my 7th round pick Mario Addison (OLB/DE). He's got a real nice spin move & very good closing burst, but he does look rather lost when he drops into coverage. There's no sound, but check it out anyway. He's #7 & lines up on the right side in a four point stance most of the time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7AnorXXJlk