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Grading This Year's QB Crop

bah007

bah007

Hall of Fame
Since we're in the market for a QB (either through the draft or FA), I've been digging through my computer and pulled up my draft grades from the last five drafts. I've also added this year's crop of QBs into the list where I have them graded for now.

As for my grading process, I can't really even explain what the numbers mean. It's really just a way to dissect the players into categories based on their talent level. Obviously, it is hard to avoid media. But I do my own scouting reports based on what I've seen with my own eyes and try to take as much bias out as possible.

I've only listed the players that were drafted in the first three rounds. Example, I rated Matt Barkley higher than Colt McCoy, but he was drafted in the 4th round so I left him off this list. The reason for this is that I am under the assumption that we will be taking a QB in one of the first three rounds of the draft, regardless of what we do in FA.

I'll also add that these rankings are not affected by anything that has happened after the player is drafted. All grades were the final grade of the player at the time they were drafted. Obviously, I'm not perfect. There are some misses in here. Some are pretty bad. But for the most part I feel like I have a good eye. Let the discussion commence.

Guaranteed Franchise QB
Andrew Luck - 99
Robert Griffin - 95
Sam Bradford - 94
Matt Stafford - 93

Potential Franchise QB
Russell Wilson - 89
Cam Newton – 88
Teddy Bridgewater
E.J. Manuel - 86

Talent Is There But Not Sold
Ryan Tannehill – 84
Zach Mettenberger
Mark Sanchez - 82
Jake Locker - 80

Need Time To Learn
Ryan Mallett - 79
Nick Foles - 77
Christian Ponder – 77
Blake Bortles
Blaine Gabbert - 76
Mike Glennon - 75
Derek Carr

Something Is Missing
Andy Dalton - 74
Brock Osweiler - 73
Brandon Weeden – 73
A.J. McCarron
Josh Freeman – 72
Johnny Manziel
Geno Smith – 71
Tajh Boyd
Colt McCoy - 70

Not NFL Caliber
Colin Kaepernick - 68
Jimmy Clausen - 66
Tim Tebow - 60
Pat White - 40
 
bah007 said:
Since we're in the market for a QB (either through the draft or FA), I've been digging through my computer and pulled up my draft grades from the last five drafts. I've also added this year's crop of QBs into the list where I have them graded for now.

As for my grading process, I can't really even explain what the numbers mean. It's really just a way to dissect the players into categories based on their talent level. Obviously, it is hard to avoid media. But I do my own scouting reports based on what I've seen with my own eyes and try to take as much bias out as possible.

I've only listed the players that were drafted in the first three rounds. Example, I rated Matt Barkley higher than Colt McCoy, but he was drafted in the 4th round so I left him off this list. The reason for this is that I am under the assumption that we will be taking a QB in one of the first three rounds of the draft, regardless of what we do in FA.

I'll also add that these rankings are not affected by anything that has happened after the player is drafted. All grades were the final grade of the player at the time they were drafted. Obviously, I'm not perfect. There are some misses in here. Some are pretty bad. But for the most part I feel like I have a good eye. Let the discussion commence.

Guaranteed Franchise QB
Andrew Luck - 99
Robert Griffin - 95
Sam Bradford - 94
Matt Stafford - 93

Potential Franchise QB
Russell Wilson - 89
Cam Newton – 88
Teddy Bridgewater
E.J. Manuel - 86

Talent Is There But Not Sold
Ryan Tannehill – 84
Zach Mettenberger
Mark Sanchez - 82
Jake Locker - 80

Need Time To Learn
Ryan Mallett - 79
Nick Foles - 77
Christian Ponder – 77
Blake Bortles
Blaine Gabbert - 76
Mike Glennon - 75
Derek Carr

Something Is Missing
Andy Dalton - 74
Brock Osweiler - 73
Brandon Weeden – 73
A.J. McCarron
Josh Freeman – 72
Johnny Manziel
Geno Smith – 71
Tajh Boyd
Colt McCoy - 70

Not NFL Caliber
Colin Kaepernick - 68
Jimmy Clausen - 66
Tim Tebow - 60
Pat White - 40
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I would place TB as talent there not sold. On McCarron I don' think you have a category listed for him. I think he will be solid NFL QB but not a franchise type. ALso think you should include Hundley if you are going to list TB and Bortles as none have declared.
 
badboy said:
I would place TB as talent there not sold. On McCarron I don' think you have a category listed for him. I think he will be solid NFL QB but not a franchise type. ALso think you should include Hundley if you are going to list TB and Bortles as none have declared.
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McCarron is very similar to Dalton for me, the difference being that Dalton proved he could carry a team in college and McCarron hasn't had the opportunity. "Game Manager" is probably his category, even though I know people hate that designation.

I left Hundley off because I don't think he is ready for the NFL and I expect him to return to school. Neither Bridgewater or Bortles has declared but I think both would be fine making the jump.
 
Playoffs said:
They still get it very wrong. :mariopalm:

I personally think you have Manziel (intangibles) too low... but I could be wrong. :kitten:
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I don't want anyone to think I am making a comparison because I am not. Manziel is the superior player. But Tebow was also overvalued because of his intangibles.
 
Good stuff and interesting grades. I would probably have AJ McCarron in the "Not NFL Caliber" area.

Good stuff overall though. You should probably submit this list to the Browns and tell them you can help them out this time around.
 
TexansFTW said:
Good stuff and interesting grades. I would probably have AJ McCarron in the "Not NFL Caliber" area.

Good stuff overall though. You should probably submit this list to the Browns and tell them you can help them out this time around.
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Yea, but who wants to live in Cleveland? Even if only for a year.
 
bah007 said:
I don't want anyone to think I am making a comparison because I am not. Manziel is the superior player. But Tebow was also overvalued because of his intangibles.
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Overvalued only by Josh McDaniels. Tebow couldn't throw the ball. That's a minimum requirement in the NFL. :fingergun:

Manziel has "put his team on his back" like Tebow did. Not a lot of young QBs do that. I don't want Johnny FB, but have to give him his props.
 
Playoffs said:
Overvalued only by Josh McDaniels. Tebow couldn't throw the ball. That's a minimum requirement in the NFL. :fingergun:

Manziel has "put his team on his back" like Tebow did. Not a lot of young QBs do that. I don't want Johnny FB, but have to give him his props.
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He's a tremendous college football player. I would never try to take that away from him. But IMO, he is missing some of the key ingredients necessary to be a successful NFL QB.
 
What is everyone's obsession with Zach Met? Can someone please explain to me what I am missing?

Yeah, he was pretty good in the SEC under Cam Cameron, but he was still wildly inconsistent.

I like his height, build, and arm obviously but that's pretty much where I draw the line. Anyone can have awesome games against UAB or Kent State, but where were those games against the "SEC Competition" that SEC fans pride themselves on?

I've seen this chatter going on for a while and just haven't said anything, but since you made this I will ask.

For me, he was a guy that ran a 5.2 before he tore his ACL and I highly doubt he's Adrian Peterson so I doubt he comes back better. He is Mike Glennon II. A career 5-8 win QB until his rookie contract ends and he becomes a journeyman backup.

Obviously my 2 cents. Feel free to educate me if I'm ignorant.
 
TexansFTW said:
What is everyone's obsession with Zach Met? Can someone please explain to me what I am missing?

Yeah, he was pretty good in the SEC under Cam Cameron, but he was still wildly inconsistent.

I like his height, build, and arm obviously but that's pretty much where I draw the line. Anyone can have awesome games against UAB or Kent State, but where were those games against the "SEC Competition" that SEC fans pride themselves on?

I've seen this chatter going on for a while and just haven't said anything, but since you made this I will ask.

For me, he was a guy that ran a 5.2 before he tore his ACL and I highly doubt he's Adrian Peterson so I doubt he comes back better. He is Mike Glennon II. A career 5-8 win QB until his rookie contract ends and he becomes a journeyman backup.

Obviously my 2 cents. Feel free to educate me if I'm ignorant.
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I'm not huge on Mettenberger but I do think that he has the potential to be the second best QB in this draft. He has all the physical tools. His mental development is behind because he bounced around so much. He played at three schools and had five different offensive coordinators in five years. But he improved tremendously this year under Cam Cameron, and ended up as the #3 QB in the nation in passing efficiency.

The ACL doesn't bother me. I don't care what his 40 time is. I don't care if he is mobile. Brady and Manning aren't fast. Hell, Brady has torn an ACL before and Manning was presumed done by some after his multiple neck surgeries. Quick decision making, good feet, and pocket awareness are far more important than long speed. Mobile is nice, but it's not necessary.

I think he is worth a mid-late 1st rounder and I expect him to be gone before the end of the first round. I wouldn't sacrifice picks to trade up for him but I would be perfectly fine drafting him if he fell to us. The only thing I would ask is that he gets at least one year to sit and learn before he is thrown into the fire.
 
Sam Bradford is a franchise qb? The human to machine stafford is a franchise qb? The guy who saved and got his coach fired is a franchise qb in rg3? Colin K isn't a nfl qb? What universe are we in?
 
leebigeztx said:
Sam Bradford is a franchise qb? The human to machine stafford is a franchise qb? The guy who saved and got his coach fired is a franchise qb in rg3? Colin K isn't a nfl qb? What universe are we in?
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Hindsight sure is 20/20 isn't it?

A lot of people obviously agreed with me at the time considering that Bradford and Stafford both went #1. And they were almost unanimously called franchise QBs on this board.

Too early to shut the book on RGIII don't you think?

Kaepernick was the sixth QB drafted the year he came out. Now, obviously I missed on that one. But so did 31 NFL teams.
 
leebigeztx said:
Sam Bradford is a franchise qb? The human to machine stafford is a franchise qb? The guy who saved and got his coach fired is a franchise qb in rg3? Colin K isn't a nfl qb? What universe are we in?
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That's how he graded them before they came into the NFL. I believe his grades fell in line with the majority thinking at the time... on most of them.
 
leebigeztx said:
Sam Bradford is a franchise qb? The human to machine stafford is a franchise qb? The guy who saved and got his coach fired is a franchise qb in rg3? Colin K isn't a nfl qb? What universe are we in?
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These were his pre nfl projections. Nothing the players have done in the pro's is accounted for.

I thought Bradford would be the next manning and I had a higher opinion of cam.

I think teddy is a fringe top ten...not a #1 overall. Don't know enough about bottles.

Good stuff bah007.
 
powda said:
These were his pre nfl projections. Nothing the players have done in the pro's is accounted for.

I thought Bradford would be the next manning and I had a higher opinion of cam.

I think teddy is a fringe top ten...not a #1 overall. Don't know enough about bottles.

Good stuff bah007.
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I thought Bradford was close to a sure thing. He has looked above average the last two years but you don't use the #1 pick on above average. And the injury concerns keep mounting. I wasn't as high on Cam as most were. I would have drafted him if I needed a QB, but he's exceeded my expectations so far. He's justified his selection.

And thank you, sir.
 
Never was a bradford guy. Played in that spread and was injury prone. Now that I re-read the ops opening,I understand what he was saying.
 
Using the logic at hand, wouldn't it be safe to say that OP could be under valuing Teddy B? His misses seem to outweigh the hits who were just consensus picks anyways, safe and not really going out on any limbs.
 
Uncle Rico said:
Using the logic at hand, wouldn't it be safe to say that OP could be under valuing Teddy B? His misses seem to outweigh the hits who were just consensus picks anyways, safe and not really going out on any limbs.
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Looking back I think that maybe I didn't study Bradford or Stafford as much as I should have because they seemed like sure things.

My biggest issue with drafting QBs is that for the most part I think my grades are pretty close, it's just that certain players were drafted way ahead of where they should have been. If Sanchez had been drafted where I graded him then y'all would be calling me a fortune teller. He was the QB of a NY team that played in two conference championships. But instead, he was overvalued and drafted too high, and thus people look back on him as a bust. He played pretty much how I thought he would.
 
I think the problem here and in general is we place value on the qb...not the situation he's drafted into. 007's rankings are not far off consensus values. The problem is: someone like David carr gets a decent oc- qb coach - support system and he can out play pre draft rankings...or as the case was, underplay them.

All of it is fluid.
 
powda said:
I think the problem here and in general is we place value on the qb...not the situation he's drafted into. 007's rankings are not far off consensus values. The problem is: someone like David carr gets a decent oc- qb coach - support system and he can out play pre draft rankings...or as the case was, underplay them.

All of it is fluid.
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True. Stafford, Bradford, & Carr were without a doubt talented QB prospects. Just didn't workout.
 
thunderkyss said:
True. Stafford, Bradford, & Carr were without a doubt talented QB prospects. Just didn't workout.
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When did Matt Stafford fail as a QB? Dude threw 5000 yards right? Not his fault his coach is a sociopath and an idiot. Correction...coach WAS. I think he's still got plenty of time to prove he's great.

I'm done with baby legs Bradford though.
 
Honoring Earl 34 said:
The road keeps coming back to Teddy .

Pro offense
Makes own calls
football junkie
tough
mobile
good arm
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I haven't been exactly sold on Teddy at 1-1. but I think I might be coming around. The article describing his football IQ, work ethic and competitiveness really makes me believe he is O'Brien's type of QB.
 
michaelm said:
I haven't been exactly sold on Teddy at 1-1. but I think I might be coming around. The article describing his football IQ, work ethic and competitiveness really makes me believe he is O'Brien's type of QB.
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Yes, that article makes a good argument for Bridgewater to be the #1 overall. But, the main source has reason to sell him as such. I may be coming around as well, but that article is taken with a big grain of salt.

The closer he gets to 225 by the time of the combine, the better. The closer to 6'3" as well, but not as much. If his jaw was wired during the summer causing him to lose weight, then 10 months later he's still shy of 210, his weight becomes a huge problem for me. If you guys don't agree, that's fine. But it is what it is.
 
thunderkyss said:
Yes, that article makes a good argument for Bridgewater to be the #1 overall. But, the main source has reason to sell him as such. I may be coming around as well, but that article is taken with a big grain of salt.

The closer he gets to 225 by the time of the combine, the better. The closer to 6'3" as well, but not as much. If his jaw was wired during the summer causing him to lose weight, then 10 months later he's still shy of 210, his weight becomes a huge problem for me. If you guys don't agree, that's fine. But it is what it is.
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He definitely needs to add weight. That seems to be the biggest knock on him, but it's one of the more easily correctable issues to fix for a QB. He put on 30 lbs in college and still looks skinny. I don't see any reason he couldn't put on 20 more.
 
WolverineFan said:
He definitely needs to add weight. That seems to be the biggest knock on him, but it's one of the more easily correctable issues to fix for a QB. He put on 30 lbs in college and still looks skinny. I don't see any reason he couldn't put on 20 more.
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I agree. QBs generally don't put on weight during the season because of the toll that playing takes on your body, 2 a days, working out for football not so much muscle and mass, etc. But about 95% of QBs that are underweight leaving college gain necessary weight by combine time every year. Happens every year, this will be no different.

Plus he just turned 21 about 2 months ago and just finished his season less than a week ago. Beer weight coming, lol. He'll be 215-225 easy come combine time, I'm sure of it.

Playoffs said:
Hate those gloves. Makes me think "small hands."
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I see you didn't read the article you are commenting on, lol. I will copy and paste an excerpt from it about his hand size for you:

A few NFL scouts have questioned the size of Bridgewater’s hands, which probably isn’t helped by the fact that he wears two gloves. (He’s done it since high school and it’s just a preference.)

“His hands are big enough. He has big hands, huge hands,” Watson said.
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Good article.
 
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its become a coin flip for me between TB and Johnny Football.
This is how i grade out this years QBs

Tier 1
Teddy Bridgewater
Johnny Manziel

Tier 2
Blake Bortles (rising)
Derek Carr (falling)

Tier 3
Zach Mettenberger
A.J. McCarron
Aaron Murray
Tajh Boyd
Brett Hundley
Brett Smith

then the rest....
 
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