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Game 7...After the Bye...Seattle Seahawks!

The Seahawks and their fans have been detestable for years now. I hope we slaughter them.
It annoys the hell out of me when Hawks fans refer to Centurylink as the “12th Man” and they all say it with conviction as if it were the only stadium with the moniker. They’ve been posting “Deshaun Watson will just be another name added to the long list of victims of the 12th Man” all over social media. I’ve replied with “Watson is QB’n for A&M now?” And have gotten a bunch of angry responses saying I’m “disrespecting” the “12th Man Movement” by pretending to not know Centurylink is the “offficial home of the 12th Man.” Lol...effin idiots!
 
It annoys the hell out of me when Hawks fans refer to Centurylink as the “12th Man” and they all say it with conviction as if it were the only stadium with the moniker. They’ve been posting “Deshaun Watson will just be another name added to the long list of victims of the 12th Man” all over social media. I’ve replied with “Watson is QB’n for A&M now?” And have gotten a bunch of angry responses saying I’m “disrespecting” the “12th Man Movement” by pretending to not know Centurylink is the “offficial home of the 12th Man.” Lol...effin idiots!
Yea that's so phony, it's like Jimmy Johnson plagiarizing the "how about them Cowboys" while years before he arrived in Dallas the Georgia Bulldog football fans in Athens GA were going with "how 'out them Dogs" !
 
DNBSsdlWkAA7G5u.jpg:large
 
The Texans have won 5 of their last 6 games when coming off a bye week, including 3-0 under Bill O’Brien, according to @ESPNStatsInfo. I don't have a real great feeling about this becoming 6 of their last 7 games. It would be one of a heck upset.
 
The Texans have won 5 of their last 6 games when coming off a bye week, including 3-0 under Bill O’Brien, according to @ESPNStatsInfo. I don't have a real great feeling about this becoming 6 of their last 7 games. It would be one of a heck upset.

It is going to be a very hard game to win in Seattle? Yes. Heck of an upset? No.

While they do have a signature win against the Rams, their other three wins are against the 49ers/Colts/Giants who are a combined 3-18.
 
Dwight Freeney has just signed with the Seahawks. He is getting long in the tooth, but I can see him still being effective in pass rush on 3rd downs and critical pass situations. The Seahawks have a very good pass rush. This is just one more potential arrow the Hawks will have to shoot at Watson.
 
In the end, whether we do anything this year or not, we will end up with the best QB in the NFL. Hopefully we get a decent o-line for him. He has enough fairly decent targets for now, but could use more, but the really big thing for the offense is a few more good o-linemen. I think the duo of Miller and Foreman are good enough for the offensive backfield.
 
Russell Wilson has never lost to an AFC team at home. The Seahawks have only lost 5 games at home since Russ started for them in 2012. Of those 5, only 2 of the games were losses to teams outside of the NFCW.
The optimist in me sez they're about due for a loss to an AFC team.
:D
 
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The optimist in me sez they're about due for a loss to an AFC team.
:D

Considering they only play 2 AFC teams at home per year, it's been 11 games including Indy this year. Only 4 of those teams had a winning record. The other seven teams were 32-71 combined.

It's a nice talking point, but in reality they are beating below average to really bad teams at home.

The only signature wins are in '12 against a 12-4 NE team and in '14 against a 12-4 Denver team.

Not saying the Texans have nothing to fear about playing in Seattle, just pointing out that one can always spin a data point.
 
This game will tell us a lot about this team for the rest of the season.
We do have an easier schedule in the second half, but Seattle is a good guide to how we fare against a decent team.
 
This game will tell us a lot about this team for the rest of the season.
We do have an easier schedule in the second half, but Seattle is a good guide to how we fare against a decent team.

No. Not at all. Like O'b has been saying. This is an improvement league, it's all about who can improve the most.

We can get blown out Sunday, consistently improve the rest of the season & wipe the floor with Seattle in the Super Bowl.

The team we see Sunday won't be the team we see at the end of December. This game will tell us what we need to improve on.
 
No. Not at all. Like O'b has been saying. This is an improvement league, it's all about who can improve the most.

We can get blown out Sunday, consistently improve the rest of the season & wipe the floor with Seattle in the Super Bowl.

The team we see Sunday won't be the team we see at the end of December. This game will tell us what we need to improve on.
Watson is the wild card of course, plus Brown going forward (and the rest of the oline).
Our defense has some questions right now too but it is an improvement league and while the Texans are improving, the rest of the league likely will too.
The good teams that can keep their key players healthy will be in good stead by the POs.
 
So much for this game after McNair's comment and the reaction of the team. Their hearts won't be in this game.
Texans will get pounded by a ready Seahawks team.... if any Texans play at all.
 
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So much for this game after McNair's comment and the reaction of the team. Their hearts won't be in this game.
Texans will get pounded by a ready Seahawks team.... if any Texans play at all.
I'm not so sure about that. Being pissed at McNair and throwing a game or not giving it their all are two different things. The players have incentives to play well built into their contracts and hopeful of postseason game checks. Having said that, I was utterly shocked at the choice of words McNair used when the perceived issue of the protests is considered. He would've had to really try to find worse ones to use.
 
Good thing McNair didn’t say ‘well if that isn’t the pot calling the kettle black’ otherwise there’s be riots in the streets. Give me f#*^ing break.
 
1707-Watson.jpg


I ask everyone to try this exercise:
DON'T LOOK AT THE 'OVERALL GRADE' AT ALL OR UNTIL YOU COMPARE THEIR OTHER METRICS FIRST

Interested in your thoughts
Time to Throw and Adjusted Comp % are the largest discrepancies between the two. Otherwise very comparable. I'd be interested to know how the variables contributing to each of these factors are weighted in the overall grade.

Mostly I'd be interested to see how the grading changed if only weeks 3 to 6 are included. My guess is that they'd change substantially.

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Time to Throw and Adjusted Comp % are the largest discrepancies between the two. Otherwise very comparable. I'd be interested to know how the variables contributing to each of these factors are weighted in the overall grade.

Mostly I'd be interested to see how the grading changed if only weeks 3 to 6 are included. My guess is that they'd change substantially.

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As far as I know the PFF overall grade is merely the sum/average of a QBs game tape grade.
I don't think its a cumulative mix of all their individual metrics.

Onto the metrics the discrepancies:

Wilson adjusted comp% 72.8--15th
Watson adjusted comp% 66.1%--30th

Wilson Time to Throw 2.97s--26th
Watson Time to Throw 3.12--31st



Here's the ones that I noticed:

Wilson Intermediate Passing --81.0-- 27th
Watson Intermediate Passing--90.4 --19th

Wilson Deep Passing--103.6--7th
Watson Deep Passing--79.4--20th

Wilson Turnover Worthy throws--3.6%--15th
Watson Turnover Worthy throws--4.5%--25th
 
Seahawks primarily play Cover 1 (man) and Cover 3 (zone)
They also blitz more now.
^^Got this from NFL Matchup

Both Cover 1/3 make it hard to run. But they can be run on.
The Titans were the highest scoring team against the Seahawks thus far.
Texans like the Titans have a mobile QB.
The Titans OL is much better then the Texans but with Brown back it should be the best it's been all season.

Sherman doesn't follow the #1 WR all the time. Therefore OB should be able to scheme Hopkins/ Fuller to natch-up away from Sherman.

Seahawks LB matchup well against TEs. But IF CJ is back the Texans have multiple TEs to match-up with.

Receivers are gonna face a lot of press man.
OB will need to scheme some rub routes AND/ OR expect the receivers to consistently win their 1 on 1 matchups.

Seahawks are 1 of the few teams that have personnel capable of effectively 'spying' Watson.
But if Watson catches them in Cover-1 and Watson can beat the spy there are going to be yards to gain on the ground.
 
1707-Watson.jpg


I ask everyone to try this exercise:
DON'T LOOK AT THE 'OVERALL GRADE' AT ALL OR UNTIL YOU COMPARE THEIR OTHER METRICS FIRST

Interested in your thoughts

Looks like the difference between really good & eh... is pretty small.
 
As far as I know the PFF overall grade is merely the sum/average of a QBs game tape grade.
I don't think its a cumulative mix of all their individual metrics.

Onto the metrics the discrepancies:

Wilson adjusted comp% 72.8--15th
Watson adjusted comp% 66.1%--30th

Wilson Time to Throw 2.97s--26th
Watson Time to Throw 3.12--31st



Here's the ones that I noticed:

Wilson Intermediate Passing --81.0-- 27th
Watson Intermediate Passing--90.4 --19th

Wilson Deep Passing--103.6--7th
Watson Deep Passing--79.4--20th

Wilson Turnover Worthy throws--3.6%--15th
Watson Turnover Worthy throws--4.5%--25th
The game tape grades give the metrics that the overall grade and advanced statistics are based on. Each metric should be either normalized (many times by the standard deviation) or weighted by perceived importance.

I'm interested in their standardization and weighting methods.

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The game tape grades give the metrics that the overall grade and advanced statistics are based on.
Why do you think this?
Their individual metrics each account for something different.

The overall grade is found by giving a a 'scouts' grade on each play.
 
Why do you think this?
Their individual metrics each account for something different.

The overall grade is found by giving a a 'scouts' grade on each play.
Agreed on the last part, but the individual metrics are created from the same data that is taken from individually graded plays. Play side, dropback depth, throw depth, time to throw, etc. I suppose this might be considered the metadata of the play.

For some of the metrics they can combine the select metadata and play grade for things like Turnover Worthy Throw %, Adjusted Completion %, etc.

They are obviously weighting the collected "metadata" into their play grading. My interest is how each variable is weighted.



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Why do you think this?
Their individual metrics each account for something different.

The overall grade is found by giving a a 'scouts' grade on each play.
To give an example

Let's say Watson bails from the pocket, not seeing an open receiver, runs himself into a near sack, and then bombs a deep contested catch to Hopkins for a TD.

On that play, what are the comparative weights of the TD throw, throw depth, the possible turnover worthy throw, missed open receiver, running into a defender, and avoiding the sack. How do these rank in importance when grading Watson on this play?

My guess is that this level of information is kept confidential by PFF as this is the basis for their scoring algorithm.

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My sources tell me Duane Brown will join huddle on first offensive play then kneel down and refuse to leave field.
 
To give an example

Let's say Watson bails from the pocket, not seeing an open receiver, runs himself into a near sack, and then bombs a deep contested catch to Hopkins for a TD.

On that play, what are the comparative weights of the TD throw, throw depth, the possible turnover worthy throw, missed open receiver, running into a defender, and avoiding the sack. How do these rank in importance when grading Watson on this play?

My guess is that this level of information is kept confidential by PFF as this is the basis for their scoring algorithm.

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Not to mention time to throw.
 
Agreed on the last part, but the individual metrics are created from the same data that is taken from individually graded plays. Play side, dropback depth, throw depth, time to throw, etc. I suppose this might be considered the metadata of the play.
PFF info is out there with some research you can find out more about their process.

For example on the graphic we're discussing it tells us right on it that the QB ranking vs Pressure and Bltiz comes from Passer Rating. And we know that Passer Rating isn't one of their metrics so they're not going to use it build a cumulative overall metric.

Also, I agree that PFF grade charting records a lot of information during the scout style per play grade. But it doesn't mean the other information is part of individual per play grade.

One metric that some have a hard time understanding for example is time to throw. Time to throw is not part of PFF 'overall grade' but it is a useful piece of information. Its not a good or bad metric it merely tells you how long a QB takes from snap to throw. Its not a value judgement metric.

For some of the metrics they can combine the select metadata and play grade for things like Turnover Worthy Throw %, Adjusted Completion %, etc.
Although they can it doesn't mean they do, like in the examples of passer rating vs pressure/blitz or time to throw.
Adjusted completion % is merely a QBs completion % with batted passes, dropped passes and throw-aways removed.

Turnover worthy throws is an interesting metric and its on area i'm not surprised Watson is high in.
Watson has always made risky throws, even dating back to college. You don't get to be league lead in TDs by being a shy thrower.
Like I was saying in earlier if i'm OB its not an area I necessarily try to reign in. I believe once you ask a QB to dial it back its hard to get them to later on be aggressive.
However, I would like to see throws like the would have been INT in the Browns game that Hopkins broke up and the INT he threw just before the half time a few games ago.
I think you can reduce those risky throws while still maintaining an aggressive throwing mentality. We want to keep the back shoulder throw to Griffen in the endzone while cutting down on some of the INTs mentioned earlier.


I think its more interesting to discuss what PFFs individual metrics are actually telling us then speculating on what is imho their least meaningful metric (overall).
 
PFF info is out there with some research you can find out more about their process.

For example on the graphic we're discussing it tells us right on it that the QB ranking vs Pressure and Bltiz comes from Passer Rating. And we know that Passer Rating isn't one of their metrics so they're not going to use it build a cumulative overall metric.

Also, I agree that PFF grade charting records a lot of information during the scout style per play grade. But it doesn't mean the other information is part of individual per play grade.

One metric that some have a hard time understanding for example is time to throw. Time to throw is not part of PFF 'overall grade' but it is a useful piece of information. Its not a good or bad metric it merely tells you how long a QB takes from snap to throw. Its not a value judgement metric.

Although they can it doesn't mean they do, like in the examples of passer rating vs pressure/blitz or time to throw.
Adjusted completion % is merely a QBs completion % with batted passes, dropped passes and throw-aways removed.

Turnover worthy throws is an interesting metric and its on area i'm not surprised Watson is high in.
Watson has always made risky throws, even dating back to college. You don't get to be league lead in TDs by being a shy thrower.
Like I was saying in earlier if i'm OB its not an area I necessarily try to reign in. I believe once you ask a QB to dial it back its hard to get them to later on be aggressive.
However, I would like to see throws like the would have been INT in the Browns game that Hopkins broke up and the INT he threw just before the half time a few games ago.
I think you can reduce those risky throws while still maintaining an aggressive throwing mentality. We want to keep the back shoulder throw to Griffen in the endzone while cutting down on some of the INTs mentioned earlier.


I think its more interesting to discuss what PFFs individual metrics are actually telling us then speculating on what is imho their least meaningful metric (overall).
Hope I didn't give you the impression that my interest is Turnover Worthy Throw % (or any other "advanced" metric). I'm interested in the weighting of the variables that comprise their play by play scoring algorithm.

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Hope I didn't give you the impression that my interest is Turnover Worthy Throw % (or any other "advanced" metric). I'm interested in the weighting of the variables that comprise their play by play scoring algorithm.

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I guess we are interested in different things.
I have a good understanding of how the get their metrics.

I think its more interesting to discuss what their metrics are telling us.
 
42-10 Seahawks. Looks like the Texans have other things on their mind.
I somewhat expected that type of score without the distraction.
So much for this game after McNair's comment and the reaction of the team. Their hearts won't be in this game.
Texans will get pounded by a ready Seahawks team.... if any Texans play at all.
Sherman may not have to cover anyone!
Just counting the folks who think this team is looking for a reason to 'lay down'
...did I miss anyone
:D
 


Just counting the folks who think this team is looking for a reason to 'lay down'
...did I miss anyone
:D
I didn't expect them to lay down. I was just commenting on the response that "some of the team may not travel" to Seattle. Too bad the secondary and defense has gone MIA this year. This team should 5-2.
 
I didn't expect them to lay down. I was just commenting on the response that "some of the team may not travel" to Seattle. Too bad the secondary and defense has gone MIA this year. This team should 5-2.
I didn't expect them to lay down. I was just commenting on the response that "some of the team may not travel" to Seattle. Too bad the secondary and defense has gone MIA this year. This team should 5-2.

They're not MIA. They're on IR.
 
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