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thunderkyss

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
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In my league, I'm going to have the first pick in our draft. I'm perplexed. This will be my third year playing, and I've been trounced the past two years. I think it's obvious to my fellow owners, that I don't know WTF I'm doing.

So, I need help.

Here's the situation.

I've got the first pick...... my next pick isn't 'till 20th overall. So, the guy I'll take first, and 18 other players will be off the board, before I get my second pick.

The top ten QBs avg 495.9 points, with a spread of 670.4(Tom Brady) to 424.8(Jon Kitna)

The top ten RBs avg 237 points, with a spread from 317.6(LT-18th overall) to 193.8(Frank Gore-49th overall)

The top ten WRs avg 235 points, with the spread from 326.3(Moss-16th overall) to 201.2(Brandon Marshall-43rd overall)

So, I've got to take a QB right?? If I'm lucky, 8 RBs, and 8 WRs will be taken, and I can hope to get the top defense (San Diego Chargers, 221 points)??

What would you do??
 
thunderkyss said:
What would you do??
Click to expand...
First, you need to post your scoring and roster rules. But the rule of thumb is to take a RB in the 1st round. Maybe even with your 1st 2 picks. Because if you're in a FFL that allows you to start 2 or more RBs, and 1 QB, RBs become much more scarce.
 
Number of Passing TDs 1-3 3 points for 1, and then 3 point for every 1 thereafter Test
Number of Passing TDs 4-99 14 points for 4, and then 5 point for every 1 thereafter Test
Passing Yards -50-999 .1 point for every 1 Test
Passing Yards 0-999 3 point for every 300 Test
Pass Interceptions Thrown 0-99 -2 points each Test
Passing 2 Pointers 0-99 2 points each Test
Number of Rushing TDs 0-99 6 points each Test
Length of Rushing TD 50-99 2 Test
Rushing Yards -50-999 .1 point for every 1 Test
Rushing Yards 0-999 3 point for every 150 Test
Rush Attempts 0-99 3 point for every 25 Test
Rushing 2 Pointers 0-99 2 points each Test
Number of Receiving TDs 0-99 6 points each Test
Length of Receiving TD 50-99 2 Test
Receiving Yards -50-999 .1 point for every 1 Test
Receiving Yards 0-999 3 point for every 120 Test
Receptions 7-99 1 points for 7, and then 1 point for every 1 thereafter Test
Receiving 2 Pointers 0-99 2 points each Test
Length of Field Goal Made 0-39 3 Test
Length of Field Goal Made 40-49 4 Test
Length of Field Goal Made 50-59 5 Test
Length of Field Goal Made 60-99 6 Test
Extra Points 0-99 1 point each Test
Fumbles Lost on Offense 0-99 -2 points each Test
Number of Defensive & Special Teams TDs 0-99 6 points each Test
 
That's an interesting scoring system. I would probably take a RB with 3 of my 1st 5 picks. I would take LT #1, though Peterson could go for 2000 yards if he gets the carries.

At the 2nd/3rd round turn, I'd look for another RB and maybe a top WR. I'd do the same in the 4th/5th.

Unless there's a huge run on QBs early, I'd wait for a value pick to drop in the 6th or 7th. Maybe later. Don't forget that running QBs have extra value. Vince Young or Tarvaris Jackson would be good backups in your league.

There's some value for a kicker who has volume and length, like a Rob Bironas. Kris Brown is a sleeper pick.

I wouldn't take a defense until I had to. Unless you have the Bears, defense & special teams TDs vary from year to year.
 
Lucky said:
That's an interesting scoring system. I would probably take a RB with 3 of my 1st 5 picks. I would take LT #1, though Peterson could go for 2000 yards if he gets the carries.
Click to expand...

If you're able to go with 3 RB's then that's the way to go, although if you can steal Brady in the 20th (doubtful) that'd be coup-de-grace. Brady put up ridiculous fantasy numbers having Moss to throw to, and that combo will be back next year.

But yeah, with that system, I'd probably take an RB first, and then see what was left over. Another RB would be high on my list.
 
I'll throw a contrarian opinion in the mix.

Look at the #1 QB's points - 670. Look at the #1 RB's point - 317, and look at the #1 WR's points - 326. If you get the right QB, you've more points than the point total of the top two RB's, or the top two WR's combined.

The fact that the top QB was 275 points above the top 10 QB avg., while the top RB and WR were approx. 90 points above the top 10 avg. for the respective positions also tells me there's much more upside to picking a QB at #1 - if you get the right one.

Granted, last year Brady had a historic season, and it's not likely to happen again, but unless you believe that there's going to be a significant regression for the Pats Offense, you'll probably still see him separate himself from the pack. Not that it matters for your purposes, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Manning pull back to the QB pack given the fact that Harrison is a big question-mark, and I think Gonzalez will be good, but he's still only a second year WR.

I may be a bit biased since I play in a league that's gives 6 points for a TD pass, and by doing so, bumps up the value of the position a bit. But if you had the #1 QB last year, you had a 14 TD pass advantage over the #2 QB, and a 22 TD pass advantage over the #6 QB. You don't see that kind of difference at the other two positions.

Taking RB's with your top pick - or top two picks has always been conventional wisdom. It may still be correct, but I believe that one thing that has changed over the past few years is the teams going to two back systems. Even Adrian Peterson shared the load with Chester Taylor, and he had the highest per game rushing average in the NFL. Last year, you didn't have a RB go over 1,500 yards, and with the exception of LT, you didn't have a RB score more than 12 rushing TD's (Nor did anyone but Westbrook catch more than 3). I just think the world may have changed a little bit, and the one QB who's dominating everyone these days may be worth the first pick.
 
ChampionTexan said:
I'll throw a contrarian opinion in the mix.

Look at the #1 QB's points - 670. Look at the #1 RB's point - 317, and look at the #1 WR's points - 326. If you get the right QB, you've more points than the point total of the top two RB's, or the top two WR's combined.
Click to expand...

That's were I'm at. I'm not seeing the logic of going RB, RB, when I've got the top spot, & I'm guaranteed the top QB in the league.

I'm still open for discussion, so please don't think I've made up my mind but having a QB Like Brady last year, and I've basically got an extra Tier 1 player on the field.

Now I wouldn't necessarily grab Brady. But Brees & Romo both scored over 500 points in our league, and Manning & Carson Palmer could definitely fit in that group, depending on injuries and what not.

I also know that the chances of me picking the right QB, are slim. But I missed on both my Running back picks last year....... Frank Gore(I took him over Addai, Ronnie Brown, & Suan Alexander) & Willis McGahee.
 
thunderkyss said:
That's were I'm at. I'm not seeing the logic of going RB, RB, when I've got the top spot, & I'm guaranteed the top QB in the league.

I'm still open for discussion, so please don't think I've made up my mind but having a QB Like Brady last year, and I've basically got an extra Tier 1 player on the field.

Now I wouldn't necessarily grab Brady. But Brees & Romo both scored over 500 points in our league, and Manning & Carson Palmer could definitely fit in that group, depending on injuries and what not.

I also know that the chances of me picking the right QB, are slim. But I missed on both my Running back picks last year....... Frank Gore(I took him over Addai, Ronnie Brown, & Suan Alexander) & Willis McGahee.
Click to expand...

If you take a QB #1 it would almost have to be Brady. Manning MAYBE, but I'd just rather go with Brady because him and Moss will be together again this year.

I think the fact that you can start 3 RB's is what is kind of skewing this whole thing. If you pick the right 3 RB combination you'd probably smoke the entire league, especially if you got lucky with the QB you picked up, if he has a good year. Think about a 3RB tandem last year that went like this:

LdT
Parker
Peterson

That's really all I have to go on for the "Pick an RB first" side of the argument, because as last year showed, RB in the first is anything but a sure thing.
 
I started a thread that was along these lines before last season started.

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41309


I have always been big on grabbing an elite QB to anchor my teams. However, I think the number one pick is just too high. Especially when you are only getting 3-4 points per a TD.

I would personally take LT in that situation. He is in the prime of his career and is almost a lock to get you 1300 yards and 15 TD's. Then I would grab my QB in round two, unless there is a run on QB's.

Tom Brady was my bread and butter in my money league. Brady to Welker helped me humiliate many of my good friends on Sunday afternoons. But I am a little weary of picking Brady too high this year. QB's historically have big let downs after record setting years. I also think that the Pat's thought that they could rely on their running game late in the year if they needed to. Maroney was a beast the last few weeks of the season and in the Pat's first two playoff games, but they couldn't run the ball in the SB when they needed to. I am hoping to get Maroney in a later round because I think the Pat's will be a more balanced offense this year.

Long story short, I think there will be better value at QB with your second pick.
 
My approach isn't going to be popular but it's gotten me into the finals of my leagues 3 years in a row and to the playoffs the year before that.

I draft RB's high because in most leagues, those guys get you points. QB isn't that important of a position in most leagues and the guy you get in the 3rd to 4th round could get you a lot of points.

BUT...

I'm very quick to drop players and pick up hot, undrafted players. If I see that someone appears to be getting hot out of the blue, I jump on them. But you've got to be careful that the guy isn't just a one game wonder but a guy that's actually "getting it". Also keep a close eye on injuries and drop guys who are gimpy even if they're a big name. I usually end up with a very different team than the one I started out with.

I'm very sensitive to who the hot kickers and hot defenses are. People usually neglect those positions and usually the guys that are ranked high before the season aren't the guys that get hot in the middle of the season.
 
guys, thanks for your replies...... I'm taking it all in, still trying to figure out what I will do.

I've often understood QBs to not be valued as much as RBs. I just don't understand why.

In my league, QBs, score more than any other position. Brady & Romo almost doubled any RB & WR.

The team that won it all last year:
Tom Brady
Ryan Grant
Adrian Peterson
Plaxico Buress
Donal Driver
***Kris Brown**
Jacksonville Def
 
thunderkyss said:
guys, thanks for your replies...... I'm taking it all in, still trying to figure out what I will do.

I've often understood QBs to not be valued as much as RBs. I just don't understand why.

In my league, QBs, score more than any other position. Brady & Romo almost doubled any RB & WR.

The team that won it all last year:
Tom Brady
Ryan Grant
Adrian Peterson
Plaxico Buress
Donal Driver
***Kris Brown**
Jacksonville Def
Click to expand...


Look where Brady and Romo were drafted though. In my money league I took Brady at pick 30 and Romo went 74.

In my work league I took Brady at 24 and I took Romo as my backup at 97.

I have thought about taking Brady in the top three but I can't help but remember Manning in '05. At this point I am probably going to take LT, AP, Addai, respectively. After that I would start to think about Brady.

But I could be wrong on this and Brady might have a better year than he did last year. After all, that was his first year to build chemistry with Moss and Welker. I wouldn't say that Brady would be a bad first pick but I would take an RB.
 
I know..... Brady went pretty late in our league as well. Peyton was the only QB taken in the first round.

I'm thinking I'll go with a running back in with my first pick, then hope to get Brees, Peyton, or Bulger with the 20th pick.
 
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