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Expectations for David Carr

infantrycak

infantrycak

Hall of Fame
Last year prior to the season there were several threads about predictions/expectations and identifying things he needed to improve on. Starting this thread for people to give their opinions on what DC did or did not improve upon last year, what he needs to improve upon next year and for predictions/expectations for next year.

Examples from needs to improve last year: TD/Int ratio, not running out of bounds for sacks, playing well in the 4th quarter, progressions, pocket presence.

For benchmarks here are the stats for DC's career so far:

2002 52.5 % comp. 2592 yds 5.84 ypa 9 TD's 15 INT's 62.8 QB rating
2003 56.6 % comp. 2013 yds 6.82 ypa 9 TD's 13 INT's 69.5 QB rating
2004 61.2 % comp. 3531 yds 7.58 ypa 16 TD's 14 INT's 83.5 QB rating

In one of last year's threads the marked contrast between the 1st half of the 2003 season and 2nd half was noted. I thought at the time the benchmark for improvement for 2004 should be the 1st half of the 2003 season so here are those numbers:

2003 (1-8) 59.8 % comp. 1483(projects to 2966) yds 7.26 ypa 6 (12) TD's 8 (16) INT's 75.24 QB rating

Looking at the 2004 season, DC did show improvement in every category over his performance in the 1st half of the 2003 season. Last year DC again had a huge split from 1st to 2nd half. So once again, giving DC the harder benchmark of improving upon the 1st half of 2004 here are those stats (projections over a complete season).

2004 (1-8) 64 % comp. 2162 (4324) yds 8.65 ypa 9 (18) TD's 5 (10) INT's 95.1 QB rating.

For reference, last year if DC had performed at the same pace for both halves of the season he would have ranked as follows among QB's who started 10+ games:

10th % comp., 4th yds, 3rd ypa, 17th TD's, 5th INT's, 8th QB rating.

Obviously one thing that strikes me as a necessary improvement is having a consistant season.
 
Hopefully, he gets a better offensive line this year to provide him the protection required to live up to his potential. Throwing off his back feet, scrambling, constantly having to worry about poor OL protection surely saps his ability to focus as a QB.

I think he's got the goods, and if he had been drafted into an established team he would be in the top 10 in the NFL, IMO. Unfortunately, he took a beating that first season, and it seems the last two seasons have suffered as a result (he never looks comfortable behind his OL, like he can't / won't trust them...can't blame him there!)

Football is obviously a team sport, and my verdict about DC as a QB is reserved until he has the luxury of a consistent OL that allows him to realize his true potential.
 
infantrycak said:
2004 (1-8) 64 % comp. 2162 (4324) yds 8.65 ypa 9 (18) TD's 5 (10) INT's 95.1 QB rating.
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Looks reasonable, but I think you have to assume the Texans will go more to the short passing game until the O-line proves itself. Therefore, the yards & ypa might be on the high side. The TD passes could go up, if the defense provides more red zone opportunities & the playcalling allows for more 1st down play action passes.
 
I think Carr is going to have a big year. I think our line is going to gel and we get over the newness of the players and the newness of the new (last year it was new) blocking schemes/line coaches. Hopefully we are changing our protection schemes. I hear we have a bit of internal differences of opinions within the coaching staff on how we call and use our protections. I think we will see a big difference this next year. Palmer doesn't have much of a choice but to tweak his protections imo.
 
Well said, they tried to bring in Orlando Pace to solidify the T position which got everyone excited. Seth Wand may have potential but he is still raw, mean while David Carr is suffering through his process. He didn't do that badly last season aside from getting schooled by the Colts speedy ends. But another year of getting sacked 40+ times and David Carr mightnot turn out to be the QB they invisioned. Those things take a toll on a QB, then there is the interrior O-Line and Steve McKinney. Center is a very important position and at times I feel the Texans could upgrade that position. Yeah he is a good guy and David Carr likes him alot but ya know, who cares. Mean while David Carr is taking a beating but yeah Steve, he is a good guy. nice guy that Steve! Pfffffft, many changes need to be made and I hope they address them sooner than later.
 
Lucky said:
Looks reasonable, but I think you have to assume the Texans will go more to the short passing game until the O-line proves itself. Therefore, the yards & ypa might be on the high side. The TD passes could go up, if the defense provides more red zone opportunities & the playcalling allows for more 1st down play action passes.
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I don't really expect across the board improvement on the 1st half stats or huge jumps either--part of why I put the rankings in there was for perspective on how realistic improvement is. My thoughts/hopes for realistic improvement are something like: 66% completions, 3800+ yds, over 8 ypa, 22+ TD's, 10 INT's, 90+ QB rating. That may not look like dramatic improvement but a higher completion percentage and more TD's spells a more efficient offense with success in the red-zone--less three and outs, more prolonged drives, D off the field and fresh, etc. In order to get there, the OL is going to have to average less than 2.5 sacks per game, 40 on the season--not entirely picked out of the air--it is about the sack rate from the 1st half of last season in contrast to the 2nd half of the season and would put the Texans about mid-league for sacks allowed. 2 or less sacks per game on average and we will finally be able to really judge Carr.
 
Coming into his 4th year as a pro, I think the kid gloves come off this year for everyone - including DC.

The O-line problems certainly have hurt his ability to be an effective pocket passer. Also with Palmer & Dom's run first mentality - I think it kind of stunted his potential as a big play passer making him have to shift and adjust to being a play-action hitch type QB rather than a QB who feels the play and pocket and moves with it. Coming out of College - DC was a lights out Passing QB - but 3 years in a conservative run offense I think has made him have to play more conservative and at times I think too conservative like he is afraid of doing somethign wrong and getting scolded by the coaches. I think Palmer needs to adjust more passing into the game plan overall and call more 3 step and 5-step drops - quick hitches and quick slants to beat the blitz back and make teams have to respect both pass and run ratehr than stacking up in the box all the time as were running so much in the first half of games and end up getting behind and have to pass our way back into the game. Honestly the predictable play-calling by him has got to stop. I called his plays myself a little too often on the TV screen - and i'm certainly no defensive coordiantor. I can only guess how easy it is for them to do it with pictures, scoutign films and game tape.

I want to see more check down and blitz audibles by David at the line. I want to see Palmer give DC some freedom in the offense to audible and go more pass happy if he gets in a groove OR to push back the blitz.

I also want to see David's 2 minute drill execution get aot smoother and command the team when time is in a pinch. I want to see more aggressiveness from him drive us to touchdowns rather than accepting a 3 and out in the redzone. I dont care if he throws more picks, he looks solid up and down the field, but the red zone he looks flustered alot of times and seems to not be as comfortable making those quick hits.

Overall I would like to see the coaching staff show more confidence in DC to lead the offense not just play his position.

Oh yea and like almost everybody else said - The O-line has got to do a better job this year - Period.
 
I think the touchdown passes will increase into the twenties this year, but I still think he'll throw about the same number of picks he did last year. I think the key once again will be is to establish a no.2 receiver and get the running game going early in the year. Protecting Carr is an obvious problem, but I think that the o-line will perform better this year. They will know the scheme better and guys like Wand and Pitts will have more experience under their belts. Carr has shown that he can lead the Texans when it comes down to the wire, but he cannot do it on his own. He need everyone to step up and do their job. Overall, I think Carr will have an excellent year and the team will win more games this year.
 
I think Carr's production is going to be about the same...I look for his completion % to be a little higher, about 3750 yards, 20 TDs, and 8 INTs...This is assuming Joppru is healthy and makes a major contribution, as he will be essential in the red zone...If Joppru can't play, Carr's numbers will likely remain the same, possibly slightly improved...
 
I thought Carr improved his play action quite a bit as the year went on. It seems that after our first game with the Colts he may have learned something from Peyton. I think he also got alot better in the red zone as the year went on. The one exception I would note is when he clearly boffed a Gaffney TD in the Bears game.

What I hope to see him improve on this year is his pocket presence and continuing to look off linebackers and safties. This all coincides with good protection, however. If he can get good protection, I think he can throw about 25-30 TD's.
 
wags said:
I thought Carr improved his play action quite a bit as the year went on.
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I agree with this, but would say he started very low and got decent--still has a long way to go. Another thing he and AJ need to be working on is the pass into the back corner of the end-zone. All summer long they should be throwing that pass to each other with Carr throwing it high enough for AJ to use his size/leaping ability to get and still come down. Last year it was like they knew that pass was available but couldn't properly execute--mainly Carr having too flat a trajectory. Another are for improvement is long range accuracy. He is always close and learned last year to put a better arc on some of the throws, but was often slightly overthrown--when you are putting the ball in front of two speedsters like AJ and Bradford you are overthrowing. Take a little off and hit them in stride or let them slow slighly to get it over their shoulder--with the new rules they will either get it or draw an interference unless it becomes truly underthrown.
 
Have you guys used more Shotgun plays? With poor OL play putting him in the shotgun isn't the answer but doing it more often will give hime some more time to set and throw
 
I'm kind of torn on this subject. I look back at the Minnesota game when we were down by 21 pts and remember how Carr got us back into the game. The thing is that once we tied the game, Carr seemed to be handcuffed again, and the Texans went back to conservative plays . It seems to me that we have the playmakers to put up huge stats, but Capers style of play is to keep it close, and then try to win it at the end. With that kind of game plan, I just don't see Carr having any kind of consistancy.
 
I think that Byron leftwich is money in the shotgun formation with his recievers running those intermediate routes.
 
some questions of mine that I have about Carr, are: does he look defenders off well, or do the defenders get good jumps on his passes? Does he fit passes into tight spaces well or does he get them batted away? Does he throw a good deep ball, or does he not throw such a good deep ball? (I like it when the QB throws it high not too high but enough to get it over the defenders but let it sink into your recievers hands nicely thats what I think a good deep ball is, I think Kurt Warner threw the nicest deep ball ever in his early days as a Ram) does he have good touch, or does he lack in that area? The reason I like Carr so much is around here he is really popular, and I saw him play at Fresno State alot; TV or LIVE I just grew up being a Carr fan so he is one of my favorite QB's, but I think Leftwich is just awesome too
 
vtech9 said:
The thing is that once we tied the game, Carr seemed to be handcuffed again, and the Texans went back to conservative plays .
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In what way? Carr came out completed a 9 yd pass to Bradford. Then on the sole running play of OT Davis ran for 10 yards. Carr then hit Armstrong for 16 yds. Next and incomplete to Bradford. Then 8 yds to Gaffney. Carr then got sacked on a 3rd and 2 passing attempt--wouldn't conservative, maybe even smart have been the predictable draw play to DD--in any event, the result was a sack and then a punt. I fail to see the conservativeness of the playcalling.
 
infantrycak said:
In what way? Carr came out completed a 9 yd pass to Bradford. Then on the sole running play of OT Davis ran for 10 yards. Carr then hit Armstrong for 16 yds. Next and incomplete to Bradford. Then 8 yds to Gaffney. Carr then got sacked on a 3rd and 2 passing attempt--wouldn't conservative, maybe even smart have been the predictable draw play to DD--in any event, the result was a sack and then a punt. I fail to see the conservativeness of the playcalling.
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Actually CAK, they opened it back up a little bit in the OT period. But even then, it was still fairly conservative pass plays instead of going down the feild where the Vikings were weak. Even so, I was refering to the Texans playing for OT instead of going for the win in regulation.
 
no team with a chance to tie is gonna try a make or break play and if they are tied i think the majority of the coaches will call conservative plays to get them to OT. nothing wrong with that notion at all. Yea I woula loved to see a last second TD pass but at the sametime im glad we played it safe cuz my heart woulda sunk if Carr trys to force a pass in and it gets picked off and Minnesota kicks a winning FG in regulation.

I think Carr needs to work on the shorter routes his short ball doesnt have much arc and he makes it easy to be batted at the line.
Also i think him and AJ sjould work on some pumpfake / double move pass plays I think AJ could score on those with great frequency

As far as his deep ball I love his deep ball I think some of it is just when you try that play early in a ball game you are still not settled in i think trying that play on the 1st possession of the 2nd half would make a world of difference. Also I think he needs to still work on not forcing the ball when your recievers are covered.

Other than that I think hes made a marvelous progression I think having Gaffney as a Possession #2 reciever will be better than 2 burners and will free up Johnson to be more of a playmaker reciever.
 
vtech9 said:
Actually CAK, they opened it back up a little bit in the OT period. But even then, it was still fairly conservative pass plays instead of going down the feild where the Vikings were weak. Even so, I was refering to the Texans playing for OT instead of going for the win in regulation.
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Well, I would still differ on your memory of the game. Texans' last possession was a pass to Armstrong for 8 yds, a pass to Armstrong (aka Alexander to some folks) for 12 yds and then a pass to AJ for a 22 yd TD. That was to go up 29 to 22--so they were tied and conservatively could have gone for the field goal but went for the TD.

Prior possession started with 7 passing attempts covering 40 yds (completions of 19, 13 & 8), then 1 run then 4 ineffective passing attempts (incompletions or DC scrambling--don't remember what they were trying for) and then a 4th down attempt pass for a TD (11 yds) to tie.

I mean maybe they weren't bombs but they were effective almost totally passing possessions. Last two possessions resulted in TD's, what more do you want?
 
Carr cannot live up to my original expectations because he plays behind one of the most porus O-Lines in the league. However, given his circumstance I think he has progressed well. Carr has had to study hard and learn to think fast and smart early in his career just to stay alive. This will benefit him well if he ever gets time in the pocket. If he gets time consistantly his happy feet will go away and his time to throw will seem like an eternity. Come playoff time when D's get mean he should be ready for anyting thrown at him. Hope that time comes soon for Carrs sake.
 
I was not a big Fan of Carr until this year. You are right Hulk the kid reminds me of a young brett favre and that is not a bad thing. Carr has some cajones on him and this year it is about time he puts the team on his back and carry us to the playoffs. That will depend on how much our O-Line keeps him off his back though.
 
I might not be remembering it right cak, but it still frustrates me that in that game the Texans showed what they were capable of, but for the rest of the season we only saw brief glimpses of it.
 
One thing I always notice about Carr is he stares down the receiver too much (ala Andre Johnson). He needs to go through reads quicker, and not lock on one player for so long and then try to thread the needle all the time, which I know he can but it's too risky to do it alot. As the oline improves, and he has more time, and we get a good pass catching TE that he can rely on. I think David Carr will be a top 10 possibly top 5 QB in the league.
 
I'd like to see a little more leadership from Carr in one regard. Many times the fans think the offense is too conservative. Granted we're just fans, but I'd like to see Carr change some plays at the line - audible out of some runs and go to passing plays. This might get him in trouble with the consevative coaches, but hey - he's the franschise QB. I'd like him to take charge in some game time situations a few times and see what happens.
 
Carr does check down, usually to a run on a called pass play. Rarely does it work. Also, Carr does have a pass catching TE he can rely on, Miller. What he doesnt have is a TE that can both block and catch to make the play less predictable. The Texans are not a conservative team they are a balanced team. They could be more aggresive if the o-line would give Carr consistant protection (visions of the Viking game). There is a lot to be said about ball control and balance. Warren Moons Oilers were an aggresive team with the "Red Gun" aka "Run and Shoot" offense, nobody uses it anymore because you cant win a SB without balance. Palmer helped Mouse Davis create the "run and shoot" the most wide open offense ever created. Palmer is not a conservative coach he is calling plays that fit the teams talent ( or lack of ). The Texas HAVE come out and passed on every down and usually its 3 and out. Untill Carr gets time in the pocket look for more dump offs, timing patterns in the flat, draws and screens.
 
I would like to see David improve even more on his fakes, do a pump fake or two (this requires more than 2 seconds to do though), look off the safety and to not allways (like 90%+) check off to a run. That's probably not all his fault, that may be the only thing he is allowed to change to. I would like to see his numbers this year be in the 3,400-3,800 Range (I doubt our offense style would allow an above 4K season), TDs in the 24-28 range, INTs in the 12-16 range, completions above 62% and QB rating of 88-92 range. If he does this, he will have done a great job and the rest of the team needs to do their jobs, then we will be doing well.
 
2004 61.2 % comp. 3531 yds 7.58 ypa 16 TD's 14 INT's 83.5 QB rating

suprising numbers considering how much under pressure he seemed in so many games, just imagine if he had an O-line in front how much higher they would be


Give DC time and a good running game and I think he will surpass our expectations
 
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