Draft Position: Texans to pick 15th

[Ole Miss Texan]

Look at last year's draft order. Cleveland finished 10-6 but did not make the playoffs--they got the #22 pick (which they had dealt to Dallas in the Brady Quinn deal). Washington and Tampa did make the playoffs but both finished 9-7, and they drafted at #21 and #20, respectively.

Huh, well how bout that.

 

[Hooston Texan]

I don't like trading up myself. You seem to lose more than you gain. You can win like Baltimore did trading up to get Flacco (sp?) last year, but it seems more of them fail than succeed. I just think it would be too risky. Maybe I just can't get away from the Babin deal.

Now trading down, that's another story!

Well, let's look at the guys that teams traded up for in last year's first round.

7--Sedrick Ellis (NO). I think he started but admit to not knowing much about how he did. But the Saints were absolutely desperate for a DT, so they had to be aggressive.
8--Derrick Harvey (Jax). If you're going to trade up, you better make sure you can sign the guy. Almost a total washout this year, but, as we all know, you can't judge a DE solely on his first season.
15--Brandon Albert (KC). A much-praised rookie starter. I doubt we'd have traded down if he lasted to 18.
18--Flacco. Pretty darned good early return, I'd say. The epitome of a win-win trade (Flacco for Brown and Slaton).
19--Jeff Otah (Car). Really solidified the Carolina OL and fit their scheme like a glove. I hate trading away a future first pick, but Carolina's strong season (thanks in some part to Otah) means the pick they gave up isn't going to be very high.
21--Sam Baker (Atl). Played well but got hurt. Still, Atlanta's OL was a revelation, and he was a part of it.
25--Mike Jenkins (Dall). Did not have much impact and played some pitiful matador defense at times. A guy taken in the fifth round--Orlando Scandrick (himself a trade-up target) seems to have outplayed him.
30--Dustin Keller (NYJ). Already being called one of the best young TEs around.
So, of the 8 trade-up targets in last year's draft, five have been unqualified successes thus far. I don't know about Ellis. Harvey and Jenkins are the only ones who did not have good rookie campaigns.

 

[beerlover]

Well, let's look at the guys that teams traded up for in last year's first round.

7--Sedrick Ellis (NO). I think he started but admit to not knowing much about how he did. But the Saints were absolutely desperate for a DT, so they had to be aggressive.
8--Derrick Harvey (Jax). If you're going to trade up, you better make sure you can sign the guy. Almost a total washout this year, but, as we all know, you can't judge a DE solely on his first season.
15--Brandon Albert (KC). A much-praised rookie starter. I doubt we'd have traded down if he lasted to 18.
18--Flacco. Pretty darned good early return, I'd say. The epitome of a win-win trade (Flacco for Brown and Slaton).
19--Jeff Otah (Car). Really solidified the Carolina OL and fit their scheme like a glove. I hate trading away a future first pick, but Carolina's strong season (thanks in some part to Otah) means the pick they gave up isn't going to be very high.
21--Sam Baker (Atl). Played well but got hurt. Still, Atlanta's OL was a revelation, and he was a part of it.
25--Mike Jenkins (Dall). Did not have much impact and played some pitiful matador defense at times. A guy taken in the fifth round--Orlando Scandrick (himself a trade-up target) seems to have outplayed him.
30--Dustin Keller (NYJ). Already being called one of the best young TEs around.
So, of the 8 trade-up targets in last year's draft, five have been unqualified successes thus far. I don't know about Ellis. Harvey and Jenkins are the only ones who did not have good rookie campaigns.

Sedric Ellis was dominant before he got hurt. really looked like early DROY favorite, very big strong quick nose tackle.

Derrick Harvey came on late after slow start (contract holdout cost not just his team but Derrick valueable conditioning/rep time) still an elite pass rushing RDE. expect a similar run this draft once again on tackles & pass rushers, always valued properties. Imagine if Harvey had stayed in school for his senior season he would probably be rated the #1 DE prospect in the 09 draft. (begs the question, if you where the Texans would you consider trading the 15th pick for Jacksonville DE Derrick Harvey)?


Bought into the Brandon Albert Hype, never thought he was worth that high of pick, not close to Clady who went #12 to Denver. would the Texans have passed on him @ #18 I don't really know? kinda like how it turned out better.

Flacco was a steal. where would the Ravens be despite that defense without a QB, example of win win trade for both teams.

Jeff Otah another great pick, loved him after Clady did have some injury issues missing some games but future looks bright especially that Carolina running attack opening holes for Williams & Stewart.

Sam Baker really surprised me, thought they burned some extra picks to move up & reach for Sam this early, why not wait until scheduled pick? guess they saw the run on tackles & got nervous. anyway he turned out pretty good, since they had extra picks (thanks Houston) it was a decent move.

Jenkins looked really good to me @ times, great recovery speed & package of ball skills. still one of the knocks on him, durability was an issue. his future should be secure as he adjusts the physical nature of the NFL.

Keller is pretty sweet, excellent hands with ability to run after the catch or take reception over middle in traffic, late season struggles seem to have been more on Farves loss or arm strength/accuracy as he battled some kind of shoulder ailment. expect him to be an elite TE for the forseeable future.

 

[Ole Miss Texan]

Imagine if Harvey had stayed in school for his senior season he would probably be rated the #1 DE prospect in the 09 draft. (begs the question, if you where the Texans would you consider trading the 15th pick for Jacksonville DE Derrick Harvey)?

We wouldn't find a better prospect on our board.

 

[ObsiWan]

I AGREE about trading down- not UP scenario! Hell, I still have that bad taste in my mouth wit that Bab's fiasco! I still remember thinkin' WAT DUH HELL!

agreed.
trading down got us Slaton...

OBTW, anyone still pissed that we passed on Mendenhall and got that extra pick?

 

[ObsiWan]

Well, let's look at the guys that teams traded up for in last year's first round.

18--Flacco. Pretty darned good early return, I'd say. The epitome of a win-win trade (Flacco for Brown and Slaton).

You forgot we picked up Dominique Barber with the 6th rounder they threw in.
Starting LT + Leading rookie RB + solid S/T guy = Playoff team QB
yep, textbook win-win move.

 

[HJam72]

That is not correct. Playoff qualification does not trump regular season record unless the playoff team in question makes the Super Bowl. Playoffs are simply the first tiebreaker among teams with the same record. Opponents' winning percentage is the second tiebreaker. So, if 8-8 San Diego does not make the Super Bowl, they draft in the #16 slot ahead of New England, Chicago, the Jets, etc.

Look at last year's draft order. Cleveland finished 10-6 but did not make the playoffs--they got the #22 pick (which they had dealt to Dallas in the Brady Quinn deal). Washington and Tampa did make the playoffs but both finished 9-7, and they drafted at #21 and #20, respectively.

Draft order is determined in the following manner:
1. The Super Bowl champ picks #32
2. The Super Bowl loser picks #31
3. The remaining 30 teams pick in inverse order of their final record.
4. In case of ties between the remaining 30 teams, teams that make the playoffs pick behind teams that did not.
5. In case of ties after #4, opponents' winning percentage is used to break ties. I am not sure what is done if two teams with the same record and playoff status also have the same opponents' winning percentage.

Indian leg wrestling.

 

[Insideop]

Well, let's look at the guys that teams traded up for in last year's first round.

7--Sedrick Ellis (NO). I think he started but admit to not knowing much about how he did. But the Saints were absolutely desperate for a DT, so they had to be aggressive.
8--Derrick Harvey (Jax). If you're going to trade up, you better make sure you can sign the guy. Almost a total washout this year, but, as we all know, you can't judge a DE solely on his first season.
15--Brandon Albert (KC). A much-praised rookie starter. I doubt we'd have traded down if he lasted to 18.
18--Flacco. Pretty darned good early return, I'd say. The epitome of a win-win trade (Flacco for Brown and Slaton).
19--Jeff Otah (Car). Really solidified the Carolina OL and fit their scheme like a glove. I hate trading away a future first pick, but Carolina's strong season (thanks in some part to Otah) means the pick they gave up isn't going to be very high.
21--Sam Baker (Atl). Played well but got hurt. Still, Atlanta's OL was a revelation, and he was a part of it.
25--Mike Jenkins (Dall). Did not have much impact and played some pitiful matador defense at times. A guy taken in the fifth round--Orlando Scandrick (himself a trade-up target) seems to have outplayed him.
30--Dustin Keller (NYJ). Already being called one of the best young TEs around.
So, of the 8 trade-up targets in last year's draft, five have been unqualified successes thus far. I don't know about Ellis. Harvey and Jenkins are the only ones who did not have good rookie campaigns.

Not sure I agree with your assessment of 5 unqualified successes this year. I'll give you 3 (Flacco, Keller, Otah). Maybe Albert is good too, I don't know. But it's hard to say he's a success when he's stuck on a crappy team and you don't know if it was worth trading up when they could have traded down, got more picks and got a LT that played just as well. Jury is still out on the others IMO.

And, even though you have some good points, I still would much rather trade down. The only exceptions to that would be if we were loaded at most positions and needed one more piece to get us "over the hump' so to speak, like Baltimore needing a top QB. Although, drafting a QB can be quite a gamble. The other exception would be if we were stock piled with a lot of draft choices and wanted to move up for a specific player. A team like us, with plenty of positions to fill and a minimum of draft picks, I would have to say no to trading up. JMHO!

 

[Hooston Texan]

I didn't see another, more recent thread on draft order, so I decided to resurrect this one. With San Diego losing yesterday, all of the Texans picks are now set.

We don't simply get the 15th pick in each round. Teams with the same record rotate picks across the rounds. For example, SF and Buffalo each finished 7-9 and pick 10th and 11th. SF won the tiebreaker, so they get the 10th pick in the first round. Buffalo then gets the 10th pick in the second round, SF gets it in the third round, Buffalo in the fourth, etc. In case of ties between 3 or more teams, each team moves up one spot in the next round with the team having the highest pick the previous round getting the lowest pick in the next one.

We are in a five-way tie at 8-8 (at picks 12-16), but one of the teams we are tied with is San Diego. Had the Chargers gone to the Super Bowl, their draft spot, by rule, would be 31 or 32. But since they lost yesterday, they are back in the group at 8-8. Because they are the only playoff team in the 8-8 group, they get the lowest first round pick (16) by rule.

Thus, in the second round, we will have the 14th pick. In the third round, we pick 13th. In the fourth round, we pick 12th. In the fifth round, we pick 16th; in the sixth we pick 15th and in the seventh we pick 14th. Now, we trade-chart junkies can't yet definitively assign point values for our picks in rounds 4 and beyond because compensatory picks have not yet been assigned. But we know now that we own the #15, #46 and #77 picks in the draft.

 

[Hooston Texan]

And another thing I forgot: the draft order is coming more clear for the picks behind us with San Diego now locked in at 16.

Right now, the first round looks like this assuming gbn's calculation of opponents' winning percentage is correct (spots in normal type are set. Bold/italics indicates position is yet to be determined):

1: Detroit (0-16)
2: St. Louis (2-14)
3: Kansas City
4: Seattle (4-12)
5: Cleveland
6: Cincinnati (4-11-1)
7: Oakland (5-11)
8: Jacksonville
9: Green Bay (6-10)
10: San Francisco (7-9)
11: Buffalo
12: Denver (8-8)
13: Washington
14: New Orleans
15: Houston
16: San Diego
17: New York Jets (9-7)
18: Chicago
19: Tampa
20: Dallas (traded first rounder to Detroit for Roy Williams. )
21: Loser of Philly (9-6-1) and Arizona (9-7). Winner of that game picks either 31 or 32.
22: Minnesota (10-6)
23: New England (11-5)
24: Atlanta
25: Miami
26, 27, 28, 29 are yet to be determined.
30: Tennessee (13-3)
31: Super Bowl loser
32: Super Bowl champ

Other than picks 21 (Philly-AZ loser) and the Super Bowl picks, the other spots will be determined by the AFC title game.

If Pittsburgh wins, then 26-29 is:
26: Baltimore (11-5 but higher opponent percentage than Atlanta and Miami)
27: Carolina (12-4)
28: Indy (12-4)
29: N.Y.Giants (12-4)

If Baltimore wins, then 26-29 is:
26: Carolina
27: Indy
28: N.Y.Giants
29: Pittsburgh