Doppelganger's March Mock Version 3.0

[Doppelganger]

This will be my last march mock. I hope to put out 3 April ones before the draft.

1. Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
We need a OLB and I think Smith is the least risky of the prosepcts. Quinn may have more upside, but he is also has a higher bust potential. Smith is a high motor pass rusher who can play the run. He is a solid tackler and can play the pass. I think he starts from day 1.

2. Stephen Paea, NT, Oregon State
His knee injury drops him into the second round and I think we have to take him. He is strong enough to take on two blockers and can shoot gaps. He would be the kind of NT Wade Phillips would want. He would enter into a rotation for the NT spot and have a chance to play DT on 4-3 like alignments.

3. Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech
A high motor CB with good speed. He has good hands, fluid hips, and can play man or zone. Downside is his tackling is not the greatest, but he is a smart hard worker, so he can work and learn to get better. A solid depth CB.

4. Robert Sands, S, West Virginia
A Safety who can play either F or S for the team. A HIGH motor guy who will not give up on plays. Those are the kind of guys I like to draft. Combine him with Quin and Nolan and you have the makings of a very decent group of safeties. Given the lack of talent on the Texans in terms of safety, I think he could potentially start. Considering Quin (who has not played Safety) Nolan(who started a few games), and Baker (an undrafted Rook out of LA Tech) are the only safteys on the team, Sands could factor into the starting lineup!

5. Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma
His stock has absolutely plummeted since the combine. Looked very slow at the combine. But here is the thing, he is a football student. He spends a lot of time in the video room watching tape. Furthermore, he looked good at Oklahoma and collected 28 sacks in three years. He is a high motor guy, can drop back in coverage, and has actually played somewhat in Oklahoma’s 3-4 lineup at times. I will take a flier on his in the fifth round. I would have him sit down and learn how to be a an effective passrusher. I think he has the making s of a very good passrusher. Remember, its not how fast you are in a tshirt and shorts, its how fast you are in pads rushing the QB.

6. Derek Epperson, P, Baylor
The new NFL rules pretty much put value on punters who can kick high booming punts. That is what Epp can do. He is also roughly Turk’s size, so maybe in preseason, Kubes can get cute and call for a fake punt run for Epp on 4th and 20 like he did for Turk!

7. Alex Linnenkohl, C/OG, Oregon State
Intelligent high motor versatile interior lineman. He is also a hard worker, so he will spend time in the film room and work on his craft. Depth is a important and at his size he can backup both Center and either Guard spot. Versatility is a key and a player who can contribute in numerous ways helps out.

Mr. Irrelevant: Clay Nurse, DE, Illinois.
With Mario, Smith, and Okoye lining up at the DE spot(I have a feeling Spears with sign with Htown in the off season too), this is s good spot to find a developmental project. Clay Nurse is a good pass rusher. He has an explosive first step, has good closing speed, good instincts, and athletic. Plus he is a high motor and hard worker. The downside, he has about 2 moves and needs a lot of work. This is the kind of guy you can stash on your practice squad for a year or so and let him develop.

I also have decided to identify interesting UDFA I would sign.
UDFA signings
1. T.J. Yates, QB, North Carolina. Good size, can make throws and has the potential to be a very solid backup.

2. Brandon Saine, RB, Ohio State. Good size, good speed, great blocker, and good receiver. I will take a chance on him here.

3. Frank Kearse, NT, Alabama A&M. Good size and could be a great developmental NT project for Wade.

4. David Mims, OT, Virginia Union, a giant (6’8”) OT prospect. Has good lateral movement, good balance, and great flexibility. He is also a bigger guy at 330lbs, so we get the best of both worlds. A big OT with ZBS ability. He needs to work on some areas, but he has the potential to be a very solid RT.

5. Davonte Shannon, S Buffalo. We need some bodies at safety so I will bring him in.

6. Josh Gatlin, CB, North Dakota State. More CB help.

7. Alex Wujciak, ILB, Maryland, ILB depth and a decent one at that. An All ACC First teamer is a big coup here.

8. Kris Durham Georgia, WR. Good hands, decent speed and size. Give me good hands and less speed over great speed and subpar hands any day.

9. Zach Pianalto, TE, North Carolina. You know it will happen. Kubes loves TEs and here is one we could actually use. A blocking machine who can be used on two TE sets. He would be perfect for short yardage runs and goal line plays. He would be a great compliment to our pass catching TEs. He would replace Anthony Hill who has not been able to stay healthy.

10. Jonathan Freeney, OLB, Rutgers. good motor relentless, pass rusher. Can’t really do anything else. He screams practice squad guy. Plus, he’s the second cousin of Dwight Freeney and apparently Dwight taught him the mental part of the game. Maybe if we sign him, Dwight would teach him his moves too!

 

[Wolf6151]

Version 2.0 was a whole lot better than this one.

1. I don't know much about Smith but he's a risky choice in the 1st round. As I understand it he's a junior and only has 1 yr. of starting in college but is very athletic. If you have to go OLB in the 1st round then Robert Quinn is a better choice or I'd rather have Justin Houston.

2. Paea will be a 4-3 NT, I don't think he fits the 3-4 NT role.

3. I'm not familiar with Carmichael though I've heard some good things about him but I don't want another mid round CB.

4. I think Sands will be gone by this time but if he's there he'd be a good choice.

5. I think someone takes a chance on Beal earlier than the 5th round but if still available he's a low risk high reward player.

6. I like the Epperson pick but don't know anything about the other players chosen.

 

[SAMURAITEXAN]

No Colorado State guy/s? Kube would be pissed if you don't put at least one from that Uni.

 

[Doppelganger]

Version 2.0 was a whole lot better than this one.

1. I don't know much about Smith but he's a risky choice in the 1st round. As I understand it he's a junior and only has 1 yr. of starting in college but is very athletic. If you have to go OLB in the 1st round then Robert Quinn is a better choice or I'd rather have Justin Houston.

2. Paea will be a 4-3 NT, I don't think he fits the 3-4 NT role.

3. I'm not familiar with Carmichael though I've heard some good things about him but I don't want another mid round CB.

4. I think Sands will be gone by this time but if he's there he'd be a good choice.

5. I think someone takes a chance on Beal earlier than the 5th round but if still available he's a low risk high reward player.

6. I like the Epperson pick but don't know anything about the other players chosen.

Thanks for the feedback.

1. After you get past Von Miller, the remaining three possibilities are Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, and Justin Houston. However, I have SF taking Quinn, so he is off the board in this scenario. I separate Smith and Houston on motor. A high motor guy is going to work hard and never give up on a play whereas a lower motor guy will give up if the play is not near him. Houston tends to give up when the play is run away from him, whereas Smith continues to work hard. In the NFL there are times when it looks like a play is over and a DE/OLB gives up on the run only to have the RB slip by and pick up a 20+ yard gain. Houston may allow that to happen, whereas Smith will not. For a first rounder, I want a high motor high effort guy.

2. Disagree with you here. Paea is a one gap DT, which is what Wade runs. He is strong enough to handle double teams and can shoot a gap if asked. He is a very good tackler and has great lateral movement. He is not a typical NT, I will grant you that, but Wade does not play a traditional 3-4 either.

3. To me, Carmichael represents excellent value. We need to improve in the DB area and the way to do that is to get good players out there. Carmichael is a great player and has great measurables. I fully expect the Texans to sign a FA CB, but we need more players in case of injury, etc. We cannot expect another Allen to be on waivers.

4. Once you get past a certain point its hard to say where anyone goes. I think Sands could be here, or he could be gone.

5. In the Texans talk mock, he went in the 6th round, he may well go earlier. Again, hard to predict where anyone goes. I mean, look at RB Rashad Jennings. Ever mocker was convinced he was going to be taken in the 3rd of 4th round right after Shonn Green. Instead he drops all the way to the 7th.

6. Thanks. I think a skilled punter can be a huge premium with the new rules in place.

 

[Doppelganger]

No Colorado State guy/s? Kube would be pissed if you don't put at least one from that Uni.

I REALLY tried to find one to use my Gary Kubiak can't have a draft without a CSU guy joke, but the only decent player I found was LB Ricky Brewer. Problem with him is he is somewhere between 211-222 lbs. He is way too small to play anywhere in the front 7 for us. I don't see him as a DB either, so he is a potential WILL LB in a 4-3.

Oh, and the other reason I didn't take him is that he lost a full year of eligibility for smoking weed. Kubes likes CSU players, but not ones that fail drug tests and lose a year of eligibility. Those kind of players bring shame and disgrace to his proud Alma Mater!

 

[SAMURAITEXAN]

I REALLY tried to find one to use my Gary Kubiak can't have a draft without a CSU guy joke, but the only decent player I found was LB Ricky Brewer. Problem with him is he is somewhere between 211-222 lbs. He is way too small to play anywhere in the front 7 for us. I don't see him as a DB either, so he is a potential WILL LB in a 4-3.

Oh, and the other reason I didn't take him is that he lost a full year of eligibility for smoking weed. Kubes likes CSU players, but not ones that fail drug tests and lose a year of eligibility. Those kind of players bring shame and disgrace to his proud Alma Mater!

Thanks for info. No offense but, they usually do have pretty good O-line player or two who fits Texans's scheme and wondering if there are any this year. With our past history drafted or undrafted FAs from CSU, it is only natural to think we may be looking at another player from CSU that we are not aware of.

I was looking at our past drafted and undrafted FAs, there seems to be some schools are looked more than other schools. May be this is due to our scheme or able to obtain more player's info from certain schools than others or personal connection such as our coaches/FO to certain school coaches or something else or may be I'm just thinking too hard. This is why I mentioned about CSU.

 

[rmartin65]

This will be my last march mock. I hope to put out 3 April ones before the draft.

1. Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
We need a OLB and I think Smith is the least risky of the prosepcts. Quinn may have more upside, but he is also has a higher bust potential. Smith is a high motor pass rusher who can play the run. He is a solid tackler and can play the pass. I think he starts from day 1.

2. Stephen Paea, NT, Oregon State
His knee injury drops him into the second round and I think we have to take him. He is strong enough to take on two blockers and can shoot gaps. He would be the kind of NT Wade Phillips would want. He would enter into a rotation for the NT spot and have a chance to play DT on 4-3 like alignments.

3. Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech
A high motor CB with good speed. He has good hands, fluid hips, and can play man or zone. Downside is his tackling is not the greatest, but he is a smart hard worker, so he can work and learn to get better. A solid depth CB.

4. Robert Sands, S, West Virginia
A Safety who can play either F or S for the team. A HIGH motor guy who will not give up on plays. Those are the kind of guys I like to draft. Combine him with Quin and Nolan and you have the makings of a very decent group of safeties. Given the lack of talent on the Texans in terms of safety, I think he could potentially start. Considering Quin (who has not played Safety) Nolan(who started a few games), and Baker (an undrafted Rook out of LA Tech) are the only safteys on the team, Sands could factor into the starting lineup!

5. Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma
His stock has absolutely plummeted since the combine. Looked very slow at the combine. But here is the thing, he is a football student. He spends a lot of time in the video room watching tape. Furthermore, he looked good at Oklahoma and collected 28 sacks in three years. He is a high motor guy, can drop back in coverage, and has actually played somewhat in Oklahoma’s 3-4 lineup at times. I will take a flier on his in the fifth round. I would have him sit down and learn how to be a an effective passrusher. I think he has the making s of a very good passrusher. Remember, its not how fast you are in a tshirt and shorts, its how fast you are in pads rushing the QB.

6. Derek Epperson, P, Baylor
The new NFL rules pretty much put value on punters who can kick high booming punts. That is what Epp can do. He is also roughly Turk’s size, so maybe in preseason, Kubes can get cute and call for a fake punt run for Epp on 4th and 20 like he did for Turk!

7. Alex Linnenkohl, C/OG, Oregon State
Intelligent high motor versatile interior lineman. He is also a hard worker, so he will spend time in the film room and work on his craft. Depth is a important and at his size he can backup both Center and either Guard spot. Versatility is a key and a player who can contribute in numerous ways helps out.

Mr. Irrelevant: Clay Nurse, DE, Illinois.
With Mario, Smith, and Okoye lining up at the DE spot(I have a feeling Spears with sign with Htown in the off season too), this is s good spot to find a developmental project. Clay Nurse is a good pass rusher. He has an explosive first step, has good closing speed, good instincts, and athletic. Plus he is a high motor and hard worker. The downside, he has about 2 moves and needs a lot of work. This is the kind of guy you can stash on your practice squad for a year or so and let him develop.

1) Not a fan of Smith. Alot of potential, but an injury risk and a bit of a flash in the pan. If he works out, great pick, but he sure is a gamble here when there are players with equally high upside and lower floor.

2) I like it, if he is available. While I disagree on you "Wade only like penetrator" premise (which I will discuss further in my next post), Paea is a great player.

3) I like it. I would prefer to address FS, but Carmichael is a pick I would not argue.

4) PASS on Sands. Didnt like him during the season, like him even less during the scouting season.

5) I like Beal here. Not a lot of risk being this late, and could turn into a good player. He is proven on the field.

6) Good call on Epperson, we need a new punter.

7) Wont argue with a 7th. I probably would have gone another direction, but it is hard to argue with OL depth.

Mr. Irrelevant) Pretty much the same as round 7 pick. I dont think I would make the pick, but 3-4 Ds need outside pass rushers, and if this guy can do that, make the pick.

 

[rmartin65]

2. Disagree with you here. Paea is a one gap DT, which is what Wade runs. He is strong enough to handle double teams and can shoot a gap if asked. He is a very good tackler and has great lateral movement. He is not a typical NT, I will grant you that, but Wade does not play a traditional 3-4 either.

I like the Paea pick, but am puzzled as to why you keep saying this. Wade Phillips creates his D to the strengths of his players, which is exactly what you want to see. From you last mock:

1) You keep saying that Wade likes penetrators, but there is no real proof to that. He worked wonders with Ratliff in Dallas, a definitely a quick NT. However, his NT in SD was Jamal Williams, who, at 340+ lbs, was far from being the quick shooting type. In Buffalo his NT was Ted Washington, who was 350+. In Atlanta (02/03) he had another small NT in Ed Jasper at about 295. So in his last 4 stops we are at 2 big guys, and 2 smaller guys.

There is simply no proof that Wade prefers smaller NTs to bigger NTs.

 

[Doppelganger]

1) Not a fan of Smith. Alot of potential, but an injury risk and a bit of a flash in the pan. If he works out, great pick, but he sure is a gamble here when there are players with equally high upside and lower floor.

2) I like it, if he is available. While I disagree on you "Wade only like penetrator" premise (which I will discuss further in my next post), Paea is a great player.

3) I like it. I would prefer to address FS, but Carmichael is a pick I would not argue.

4) PASS on Sands. Didnt like him during the season, like him even less during the scouting season.

5) I like Beal here. Not a lot of risk being this late, and could turn into a good player. He is proven on the field.

6) Good call on Epperson, we need a new punter.

7) Wont argue with a 7th. I probably would have gone another direction, but it is hard to argue with OL depth.

Mr. Irrelevant) Pretty much the same as round 7 pick. I dont think I would make the pick, but 3-4 Ds need outside pass rushers, and if this guy can do that, make the pick.

1. I think we need to go OLB with our first pick and I suppose we could have gone Houston, but I see Smith as a guy who gives all out effort. To me, technique can be taught. Heart and motor cannot.

2. Thanks I like Big P too.

3. I like Carmichael as well thanks.

4. Who would you prefer at S than Sands if the above three picks were made?

5. That's my thinking too: low risk, high reward. He is the kind of guy you take a chance on here in the fifth.

6. We really do. A new punter can mean the difference between the opponent trying a very long fg vs having a makable one.

 

[Doppelganger]

I like the Paea pick, but am puzzled as to why you keep saying this. Wade Phillips creates his D to the strengths of his players, which is exactly what you want to see. From you last mock:



There is simply no proof that Wade prefers smaller NTs to bigger NTs.

Yes, Phillips does create his D to fit his players, but he still has a basic philosophy. My understanding of the Phillips D comes from this article.

http://www.scardraft.com/Phillips34.html

Yes, Phillips will create a system to fit his players, but look at what we have. He is saying he wants to putting Cody/Mitchell as his NT. These are 1 gap NTs. The one gap system is where the NT has the job of being a clogger as well as a penetrator. Yes, if you have a Jamal Williams you can play a 0 technique, but guys like that don't grow on trees. Phil Taylor is that kind of guy, but I don't see Phillips trading back into the first for him. Outside Taylor, there are not really any other solid 0 gap NTs in this draft. On the flip side, Paea is a very solid 1 gap NT prospect as he can clog and penetrate.

 

[rmartin65]

Yes, Phillips does create his D to fit his players, but he still has a basic philosophy. My understanding of the Phillips D comes from this article.

http://www.scardraft.com/Phillips34.html

Yes, Phillips will create a system to fit his players, but look at what we have. He is saying he wants to putting Cody/Mitchell as his NT. These are 1 gap NTs. The one gap system is where the NT has the job of being a clogger as well as a penetrator. Yes, if you have a Jamal Williams you can play a 0 technique, but guys like that don't grow on trees. Phil Taylor is that kind of guy, but I don't see Phillips trading back into the first for him. Outside Taylor, there are not really any other solid 0 gap NTs in this draft. On the flip side, Paea is a very solid 1 gap NT prospect as he can clog and penetrate.

What are the guy's credentials? Because just anyone can write something on the internet.

I am not arguing the Paea pick. He is a fantastic DT in either the 4-3 or 3-4, and would be a great pick in the 2nd. However, what I am arguing, is that Wade picks the best NT to be the starter. It does not matter if he is 340+ lbs or 300 lbs. If he has the most talent, Wade will create the defense around him.

 

[beerlover]

1. I think we need to go OLB with our first pick and I suppose we could have gone Houston, but I see Smith as a guy who gives all out effort. To me, technique can be taught. Heart and motor cannot.

2. Thanks I like Big P too.

3. I like Carmichael as well thanks.

4. Who would you prefer at S than Sands if the above three picks were made?

5. That's my thinking too: low risk, high reward. He is the kind of guy you take a chance on here in the fifth.

6. We really do. A new punter can mean the difference between the opponent trying a very long fg vs having a makable one.

I hate Texan tendency to use their first pick primarily to address need rather than taking the best player. I have a hard time choosing either Robert Quinn/Eldon Smith just because of associated risks each player has baggage.

Stephen Paea is a player Texans have needed here for a long time, he is a two-gap penetrator. His best fit is a 0 or 1-tech DT in a 4-3. If he's still on the board when Texans select in the 2nd rd. that's gonna have to be clearly Wade Phillips call, I just can't bring myself to go there.

I've heard Texans are interested in Carmichael which scares me quite honestly. I'm not overly impressed with his game film or workouts. He finished 26/34 db's @ the combine so I have him graded no sooner than 4th rd.

To echo what rmartin65 said I would add he plays undisciplined & out of control. He will deliver some highlight reel but get beat deep & often like Pollard so he is more in the box safety to me.

no problem with Beal in 5th.

I would use Mr. Irrelevant on a punter

 

[Doppelganger]

What are the guy's credentials? Because just anyone can write something on the internet.

I am not arguing the Paea pick. He is a fantastic DT in either the 4-3 or 3-4, and would be a great pick in the 2nd. However, what I am arguing, is that Wade picks the best NT to be the starter. It does not matter if he is 340+ lbs or 300 lbs. If he has the most talent, Wade will create the defense around him.

I have no idea what the writer's credentials are. But, when Wade was the new choice this was the best article I could find on the Wade scheme. I don't have a lot of time to watch extra football and go back and analyze his schemes personally, so I have to rely on others. If they do not give me good info, then I am using bad info.

Similarly, I don;t have the time to go back and rewatch footage of the last season+ to do mocking. I go by what I saw during the last season, what I see at the combine/pro days, and what is written. I wish I could independently do the research, but I have other responsibilities.

I don't think we are really arguing anything different. I think like any 3-4 D coordinator, in a perfect world he would want a massive space eater, who shot gaps, handled double teams, could play 4 downs, bat down balls, and stuff the run. However, since those guys aren't easy to get, he gets the best NT he can and tailor's his D to his NT, and to a greater extent the players he has.

 

[JB]

6. Derek Epperson, P, Baylor
The new NFL rules pretty much put value on punters who can kick high booming punts. That is what Epp can do. He is also roughly Turk’s size, so maybe in preseason, Kubes can get cute and call for a fake punt run for Epp on 4th and 20 like he did for Turk!

What new NFL rules might this be?

 

[Corrosion]

I like the Paea pick, but am puzzled as to why you keep saying this. Wade Phillips creates his D to the strengths of his players, which is exactly what you want to see. From you last mock:



There is simply no proof that Wade prefers smaller NTs to bigger NTs.

He simply plays the best guy he has and scheme's to that guy's talents .... If he has the option , Im sure he would prefer the prototypical bigger DT but you dont always have that option

 

[mussop]

I've heard Texans fans debate what the "1-gap" nose will look like for the Texans and whether or not that player is on the roster, but I think too much is made of the term "1-gap" as it refers to this position. For one, no matter whether you are looking at the Patriots brand of 3-4, the Steelers version or Wade Phillips version (all different), the nose is going to take on plenty of double teams each game and has to be strong at the point of attack to hold up and not be pushed around or teams are going to be able to gash the defense in the middle with their rushing attack. I know that Jay Ratliff's name comes up quite a bit, but he's atypical of what the 3-4 nose will look like at 6'4 / 309. Ratliff has tremendous quickness off the snap which makes him special, but he's also stronger at the point than many players his size. While Wade Phillips coached Ratliff, he also coached Jamal Williams and Pat Williams and Ted Washington and those players are all very big boys; therefore, I don't think it is easy to lock in on the body type of what Phillips and the Texans will be looking for. I do know this though, that player MUST be able to handle double teams without getting blown off the ball.
Prototypes
B.J. Raji, Packers: 6'2 / 337
Vince Wilfork, Patriots: 6'2 / 340
Kelly Gregg, Ravens: 6'0 / 320
Dan Williams, Cardinals: 6'2 / 327

Maybe this will help. Lance wrote this. I'll add a link later