Doppelganger's Kneejerk Mock-2

[Doppelganger]

So in this mock universe, Doppelganger is the new GM of the Texans. Here are the moves I would make. This is not what the Texan could or would do, its what I would do.

First thing I would do is explain to Bob, that the current Texans window is not necessarily shut. The team, as currently constructed simply cannot win a Superbowl. However, a few tweaks can be made in order for the team to compete next year and be a contender in 2 years.

I previously predicted a 6-10 record. However, I had the Texans beating the Rams. As such I am revising down to 5-11. In my universe, Keenam plays well and becomes the starter(remember, this is a knee jerk!) but dumb mistakes occur and the team shoots itself in the foot.

Fired:

1. Gary Kubiak.
He seems like a nice guy but the playcalling has continued to stink like visitors after 3 days. The whole concept of the safe conservative playcalling simply isn't sustainable in the current NFL. He has had a lot of time to get it done and he didn't. Time to go in a different direction.

Hire:

1. Kevin Sumlin.
He knows how to use Case and can bring a new fire to the team. He is an offensive guy who would work well with Wade's Defensive approach. Sumlin could devise an offense similar to what he did for Case at UH. A nice spread offense with running to keep defenses honest.

Cut:

1. Matt Schaub. He is 32 years old. In this universe, Keenum has replaced him. He is too expensive to be a backup and the Texans have an out to cut him.

2. Wade Smtih. He has easily been the worst OL on the team thus far. He may be injured, but Brandon Brooks and Ben Jones have seemingly outplayed him at OG. His replacement: Quiz is already on the team and will be ready to go next year.

3. Owen Daniels. He is a great player, but the injuries are becoming concerning. It may be time to get rid of him and spend that money elsewhere. The team could be just fine with Graham and Griffin(now that he is getting some reps.)

Extend:
1. JJ Watt: Kind of a nobrainer. He is the best DL in the game. Gots to pay the man the money.

2. Kareem Jackson: Perhaps a controversial decision, but the going FA rate of CBs has gone down. May be able to get him at a reasonable deal. A young solid CB like

Resign:

1. Antonio Smith. Sign him to a 2-3 year deal as he still makes plays and is a difference maker. Our other DEs like Crick aren't quite ready to step up as starters just yet.

2. Sign

With money saved, I would go out and sign a top level ILB and FS.

Ok, if you got through all of that, here is what I would do wit the draft picks. In this universe the Texans end up with a 5-11/6-10 record (picks 6-10 last yer) and are selecting #7.

1. Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M, 6'5, 305lbs
Considering the OL has been struggling, the best move to protect Case is to get the best possible OL prospect at this position int he draft. I think its possible that Lewan goes ahead of Matthews simply because of size, kinda like the way Fisher got ahead of Joeckl last time. I would initially stick him on the RT slot and keep Brown at the LT. Considering teams have passrushers coming from all angles, it is almost necessary to have 2 LTs to protect the QB. Matthews makes a ton of sense and it would be great to have another Matthews protecting the Htown QB. I am sure I don't have to outline his bloodlines, but if I must: Father(Bruce), Uncle (Clay Jr.), cousin (Clay III), cousin (Casey). Nuff said. He starts Day 1.

2. Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami, 6'0, 240lbs
We all saw what has happened to Cush. Sadly it is his second injury to the same knee. I hope he can come back. But, even if he does, Cush needs a strong compliment. Perryman is that guy. He can play tough against the run but is also a beast as a pass defender in the zone. Considering teams are running more atheltic TEs, teams need ILBs who can turn and run. Perryman is a 3 down ILB who could also start from Day 1.

3.Gabe Ikard, C/G, Oklahoma, 6'3, 303lbs.
I still have questions about the OG spots. If I am getting rid of Wade, I want someone who can push for a starting spot from Day 1. Enter Gabe Ikard. He can play at G or Center and is very strong. To see what he was able to do check out footage of what he did against the much bigger and stronger Notre Dame NT Louis Nix. The Texans could use a guy like him at OG and eventually Center. These first three selections will either start out of the gate or push for a starting spot right away.

4. Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky, 6'4, 252lbs
The Texans need more passrushers and Dupree could be that guy. A good athelete that has been disruptive around the LOS. Can get after the QB and get runners behind the LOS.

5. Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State, 6'5, 214lbs
A nice developmental QB for the Sumlin to mentor. Has a good arm , but needs to work on fundamentals. Good size, but needs to work on decision making. Can put on some weight and can scramble, but needs to work on foot work.

6. Jerry Gates, Bowling Green University, FS, 5’11, 190lbs
Last year the Texans drafted Swearinger to replace Manning. I take Gates to replace Reed. Gates is a true ball hawking FS. He is also a very good KR and could help on the special teams. Give him a year with Reed and let him start the year after. Starts out as a ST.

7. Devan Drane, CB, Cincinnati, 5'11, 186lbs
A good developmental CB who could into something special. He has good hands and can play the pass pretty well. Great bloodlines as his dad played for the Bills for 8 years.

 

[NCTexan]

I like ILB pick high. I haven't really looked at them yet because I thought we could find someone later in the draft to stand next to Cush. After this I think we need an ILB in the first or second.

I don't think Cush is injury prone, because his injuries come from devastating hits. But I'm not sure he can return to form...

I think we need a Safety in there as well. Tre Boston out of UNC in the 3rd or 4th could be a solid later pick.

 

[Section516]

As of now, the only FA's I can see being worth it in the middle would be Daryl Smith (Who was a FA last year, with Ravens now, 1.5 sacks, 2 INT, 1 TD (Thanks Schaub!) and 64 tackles as of now.

Hes playing for 1.25 mil according to Spotrac, but imagine if he continues along his path someone will give him a 2-3 year deal. Ravens drafted Arthur Brown this past year, so imagine they would want to turn over the reigns, but you never know.

As for DB, There's Byrd from the Bills and not much else, and if he does hit FA w/o being tagged for the second time, I highly doubt we can afford the contract he wants. (Has demanded to be highest paid safety, 9mil+/year.)

As for the draft, I like the positions you've picked of need - Really depends on how the rest of the season plays out. I would love (and hate, due to what it means for us) to pick in the top 10 and refill our roster, especially if Keenum proves to be the 'real deal'

 

[Section516]

Using Overthecap.com, cutting Schaub in 2014 gives us $4,000,000 in cap space (10.5 dead money), OD gives us $4,500,000, Ed Reed gives us 2.5 (Oh, hes not on your list? ) Hopefully, Reed will just call it quits and retire..One can hope.

So..There is hope for us having some $$ for the resigning(s).

 

[Dutchrudder]

Using Overthecap.com, cutting Schaub in 2014 gives us $4,000,000 in cap space (10.5 dead money), OD gives us $4,500,000, Ed Reed gives us 2.5 (Oh, hes not on your list? ) Hopefully, Reed will just call it quits and retire..One can hope.

So..There is hope for us having some $$ for the resigning(s).

Whether Reed is cut, traded or retires, he will still cost us 2.666 million next year, and saves us the same amount.

I'd also nominate Danieal Manning to be cut, to save 4.5 million.

Schaub saves 4 million.

Wade Smith is an expiring deal and saves no extra money.

Total projected cap is 119m right now, minus all those cuts above, assume a 123 million cap number, and you get about 15.1 million in free space going into the offseason.

Watt is still under contract for 2014, so we can get by next year without extending him.

Case Keenum is under contract next year for 500k, but would likely need some reworking if we expect him to be a starter next year. No way he plays for that, unless there is open competition for the job. We will have to wait and see about that.

There is some room to maneuver and get players to help this team, but the real question is, "when do you expect to compete for a Super Bowl?" If it's not 2014, then that excess money might be best spent extending a core player like Watt, and frontloading his contract with a big roster bonus, then free up money in 2015 to really build out this team to compete for a ring. If we aren't truly 2-3 players away from contention, then that 15m is just going to wasted on players that will hurt our draft position. That money can be rolled over to 2015 and the future too, so it's not a bad thing to save it.

 

[PHILLYTEXANFAN]

Add JJo too the cut list please

 

[Insideop]

Whether Reed is cut, traded or retires, he will still cost us 2.666 million next year, and saves us the same amount.

I'd also nominate Danieal Manning to be cut, to save 4.5 million.

Schaub saves 4 million.

Wade Smith is an expiring deal and saves no extra money.

Total projected cap is 119m right now, minus all those cuts above, assume a 123 million cap number, and you get about 15.1 million in free space going into the offseason.

Watt is still under contract for 2014, so we can get by next year without extending him.

Case Keenum is under contract next year for 500k, but would likely need some reworking if we expect him to be a starter next year. No way he plays for that, unless there is open competition for the job. We will have to wait and see about that.

There is some room to maneuver and get players to help this team, but the real question is, "when do you expect to compete for a Super Bowl?" If it's not 2014, then that excess money might be best spent extending a core player like Watt, and frontloading his contract with a big roster bonus, then free up money in 2015 to really build out this team to compete for a ring. If we aren't truly 2-3 players away from contention, then that 15m is just going to wasted on players that will hurt our draft position. That money can be rolled over to 2015 and the future too, so it's not a bad thing to save it.

I know the Texans have had some bad extensions over the years (HWSNBN's comes to mind and now maybe Cushings too.), but they can't let Watt hit the open market. It would be way too big of a risk IMO! I'd rather they "roll the dice" and sign him early than "roll the dice" and wait until he hits the FA market.

 

[WolverineFan]

I know the Texans have had some bad extensions over the years (HWSNBN's comes to mind and now maybe Cushings too.), but they can't let Watt hit the open market. It would be way too big of a risk IMO! I'd rather they "roll the dice" and sign him early than "roll the dice" and wait until he hits the FA market.

They can franchise him twice w/o him hitting the market.

And Cushing was a great extension. He's a tough SOB and has just been extremely unlucky the last 2 years with freak injuries.

 

[Doppelganger]

I like ILB pick high. I haven't really looked at them yet because I thought we could find someone later in the draft to stand next to Cush. After this I think we need an ILB in the first or second.

I don't think Cush is injury prone, because his injuries come from devastating hits. But I'm not sure he can return to form...

I think we need a Safety in there as well. Tre Boston out of UNC in the 3rd or 4th could be a solid later pick.

There are two schools of thought here:

1. Do you go after two 3 down LBs so that you can play the run or the pass tough?

2. Do you get one central 3 down LB and then a cheaper 2 down LB and bring on an extra saftey for a dime package.

In my mind, you gotta try for option 1. With bigger stronger TEs like Gronkowski, Graham, Davis, etc who are 6'5+ 260lbs, it is a tough assignment to ask a small 6'0 190-200lb safety to do much against them. Instead, asking a 3 down MLB is a much better matchup.

One of the reasons the SF defense is good is becuase of Willis and Bowman.

 

[Doppelganger]

As of now, the only FA's I can see being worth it in the middle would be Daryl Smith (Who was a FA last year, with Ravens now, 1.5 sacks, 2 INT, 1 TD (Thanks Schaub!) and 64 tackles as of now.

Hes playing for 1.25 mil according to Spotrac, but imagine if he continues along his path someone will give him a 2-3 year deal. Ravens drafted Arthur Brown this past year, so imagine they would want to turn over the reigns, but you never know.

As for DB, There's Byrd from the Bills and not much else, and if he does hit FA w/o being tagged for the second time, I highly doubt we can afford the contract he wants. (Has demanded to be highest paid safety, 9mil+/year.)

As for the draft, I like the positions you've picked of need - Really depends on how the rest of the season plays out. I would love (and hate, due to what it means for us) to pick in the top 10 and refill our roster, especially if Keenum proves to be the 'real deal'

Thanks!

Smith would be a nice stopgap ILB. I do not know which DBs may be available next year. However, I imagine there will be a nice deal if the Texans are patient.

 

[Doppelganger]

Whether Reed is cut, traded or retires, he will still cost us 2.666 million next year, and saves us the same amount.

I'd also nominate Danieal Manning to be cut, to save 4.5 million.

Schaub saves 4 million.

Wade Smith is an expiring deal and saves no extra money.

Total projected cap is 119m right now, minus all those cuts above, assume a 123 million cap number, and you get about 15.1 million in free space going into the offseason.

Watt is still under contract for 2014, so we can get by next year without extending him.

Case Keenum is under contract next year for 500k, but would likely need some reworking if we expect him to be a starter next year. No way he plays for that, unless there is open competition for the job. We will have to wait and see about that.

There is some room to maneuver and get players to help this team, but the real question is, "when do you expect to compete for a Super Bowl?" If it's not 2014, then that excess money might be best spent extending a core player like Watt, and frontloading his contract with a big roster bonus, then free up money in 2015 to really build out this team to compete for a ring. If we aren't truly 2-3 players away from contention, then that 15m is just going to wasted on players that will hurt our draft position. That money can be rolled over to 2015 and the future too, so it's not a bad thing to save it.

The idea is good in theory but a dangerous game. If you front load the contract, he may get used to making that kind of $. When the leaner years come he may ask for a new contract or push for an extension. Not everyone is Andre Johnson.

 

[Dutchrudder]

I know the Texans have had some bad extensions over the years (HWSNBN's comes to mind and now maybe Cushings too.), but they can't let Watt hit the open market. It would be way too big of a risk IMO! I'd rather they "roll the dice" and sign him early than "roll the dice" and wait until he hits the FA market.

Just F-tag him. No risk there. Plus, there's a built-in franchise tag now for 1st round picks, and Watt qualifies for it in his 5th year. They can use that and save the actual franchise tag for another player, if there is actually one that needs it.

The idea is good in theory but a dangerous game. If you front load the contract, he may get used to making that kind of $. When the leaner years come he may ask for a new contract or push for an extension. Not everyone is Andre Johnson.

Yeah, I'm willing to bet Watt is that kind of guy. I know we have seen that behavior from *******s like MJD, Darelle Revis and such, but I think Watt's the kind of guy that will see it through. And honestly, it doesn't have to be insanely frontloaded, something that might work is 6 years 60 million, say 50% guaranteed and structure it like: 16, 12, 8, 8, 8, 8. 8 million is enough to keep a guy like him motivated. I know it's not a utilized strategy in the NFL currently, or at least I haven't seen anyone employ it consistently, but I think that's the way to go in this NFL. Spend on core guys early during rebuild, then use that money to get your team over the hump for about 2-3 years during your window of opportunity.

 

[infantrycak]

I don't think Cush is injury prone, because his injuries come from devastating hits. But I'm not sure he can return to form...

According to CnD this injury is much less significant and should have a full recovery for all off-season activities. Much less of a performance issue than an ACL or achilles.

 

[htownfan32]

According to CnD this injury is much less significant and should have a full recovery for all off-season activities. Much less of a performance issue than an ACL or achilles.

That's actually very good to hear. Doc's insight is invaluable (and good news in this case, too).