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In a previous Post I layed out the question of whether I thought Teddy Bridgewater had the makings of a potential Franchise Quarterback. Here is the link: http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2265331#post2265331
In this post , I am going to explore whether it is worth it to trade down if you think the man is a franchise QB.
In order to test this out, I propose we recreate the RGIII trade. To refresh, the RGIII trade meant a swap of 1st round picks(2->6) in 20912, an additional second rounder in 2012, first rounder in 2013, and first in 2014. So, we will recreate this using known franchise QBs in order to see if the haul was better than the franchise QB. I am going to test this theory using Peyton Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady. I am not including QBs taken after 2009 simply because we need time to see the drafted players actually play in the NFL and need data. Thus Luck, Newton, Bradford, Griffin, Russell, or Kaepernick were not considered for the analysis.
Now, clearly not all the QBs in this analysis were the #1 overall pick. However, for the sake of clarity, we are going to pretend that they could have been. We will then make the trade from #1 to #5. We will then take the team in that #5 spot to see who else was taken in the following spots. Of course its not perfect, but its give you a more realistic window into time rather than trying to do a best case scenario cherry pick.
And now, as Bugs Bunny would say This is it, you'll hit the heights , And oh what heights we'll hit, On with the show this is it!
Peyton Manning:
Originally Drafted 1998, pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 1998: 1st: Curtis Enis rb, 2nd: Tony Parish SS
1999: 1st: Cade McNown, QB
2000: 1st Brian Urlacher: LB
Analysis: Clearly it was better to stick with Peyton. As good as Urlacher was, its better to have a HOF QB than a HOF LB.
Tom Brady:
Originally drafted 2000: pick 199, round 6. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New Picks: 2000 1st Corey Simon DT, 2nd Todd Pinkson WR.
2001: 1st: Freddy Mitchell, WR
2002: 1st Lito Shepherd, CB
Analysis: Corey Simon and Lito Shepherd both became probowlers. Simon went to 1 probowl and Shepherd went to 2. Shepherd was also a 4 time All Pro. A fine career. But, he isnt Tom Brady. And wouldnt you prefer Tom Brady over the combination of Corey Simon and Lito Shepherd? I would.
Drew Brees:
Originally Drafted 2001, pick 32, round 2. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2001: 1st: LaDainian Tomlinson rb, 2nd: Algae Crumpler, TE
2002: 1st: TJ Duckett: RB
2003: 1st Willis McGahee, RB
Analysis: This is a tougher one, because you end up with possible HOF Tomlinson as well as probowlers McGahee and Crumpler. That is a very impressive hall and probably about as well as you can hope for. Yet, in a QB driven league, the franchise QB is still more important. Franchise QB is still going strong, are the others? Not exactly.
Aaron Rogers:
Originally Drafted 2005, pick 24, round 1. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2005: 1st: Carnell Cadillac Williams rb, 2nd: Barrett Rudd LB
2006: 1st: Davin Jospeh OG
2007: 1st Gaines Adam DE
Analysis: Quite honestly, any way you look at it, this was a fairly piss poor return for Aaron Rogers. Cadillac never materialized, Rudd was a good not great LB, and Adams had an unspectacular career before an unfortunately untimely death . Joseph has had 1 probowl season, despite being one the highest paid OGs in the league. Easily the edge goes to the Discount Double Check guy.
Matt Ryan:
Originally Drafted 2008, pick 3, round 1. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2008: 1st: Glenn Dorsey DT, 2nd: Brandon Flowers CB
2009: 1st: Tyson Jackson DE
2010: 1st Gerald McCoy DT
Analysis: Its actually kind of funny to see that many selections on the DL yet none of them really panned out. McCoy has been to one Probowl but none of them really became the dominant DL players they were supposed to be. While he has had difficulty in the playoffs, Id still take Matty Ice over this group any day and twice on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford: Originally Drafted 2009, pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2009: 1st Mark Sanchez QB, 2nd: Brian Robiskie
2010: 1st: Joe Haden CB
2011: Julio Jones WR
Analysis: This is probably the toughest one. Joe Haden and Julio Jones are both young stars and can certainly help your football team. You could even go so far as to say that Haden may be a cornerstone of the Defense and Julio Jones a building block on the WR corp. Yet, as good as Haden is, he can only do so much from the corner. Jones is a great WR, but he needs a QB to throw him the ball. Even if he becomes as great as an Andre Johnson, the question still becomes: would you rather have a potential HOF WR or Franchise QB. I think i have to go franchise QB. AJ has been beyond great, but as great as he has been, in the 11 years he has been in town, the team has been to the playoffs in 2 years and has never gotten back the 2nd round.
At the end, I still take the franchise QB over the pieces picked up in trade.
So, what have we learned. Based on this, it clearly tells me that if you think a guy is a franchise QB you must take him. While you may get a probowler or possibly even a HOF player, it is unlikely you will find enough pieces to overcome the value of the franchise QB.
So, if you view Teddy Bridgewater as a franchise QB, its a no-brainer, you absolutely must take him.
In a previous Post I layed out the question of whether I thought Teddy Bridgewater had the makings of a potential Franchise Quarterback. Here is the link: http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2265331#post2265331
In this post , I am going to explore whether it is worth it to trade down if you think the man is a franchise QB.
In order to test this out, I propose we recreate the RGIII trade. To refresh, the RGIII trade meant a swap of 1st round picks(2->6) in 20912, an additional second rounder in 2012, first rounder in 2013, and first in 2014. So, we will recreate this using known franchise QBs in order to see if the haul was better than the franchise QB. I am going to test this theory using Peyton Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady. I am not including QBs taken after 2009 simply because we need time to see the drafted players actually play in the NFL and need data. Thus Luck, Newton, Bradford, Griffin, Russell, or Kaepernick were not considered for the analysis.
Now, clearly not all the QBs in this analysis were the #1 overall pick. However, for the sake of clarity, we are going to pretend that they could have been. We will then make the trade from #1 to #5. We will then take the team in that #5 spot to see who else was taken in the following spots. Of course its not perfect, but its give you a more realistic window into time rather than trying to do a best case scenario cherry pick.
And now, as Bugs Bunny would say This is it, you'll hit the heights , And oh what heights we'll hit, On with the show this is it!
Peyton Manning:
Originally Drafted 1998, pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 1998: 1st: Curtis Enis rb, 2nd: Tony Parish SS
1999: 1st: Cade McNown, QB
2000: 1st Brian Urlacher: LB
Analysis: Clearly it was better to stick with Peyton. As good as Urlacher was, its better to have a HOF QB than a HOF LB.
Tom Brady:
Originally drafted 2000: pick 199, round 6. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New Picks: 2000 1st Corey Simon DT, 2nd Todd Pinkson WR.
2001: 1st: Freddy Mitchell, WR
2002: 1st Lito Shepherd, CB
Analysis: Corey Simon and Lito Shepherd both became probowlers. Simon went to 1 probowl and Shepherd went to 2. Shepherd was also a 4 time All Pro. A fine career. But, he isnt Tom Brady. And wouldnt you prefer Tom Brady over the combination of Corey Simon and Lito Shepherd? I would.
Drew Brees:
Originally Drafted 2001, pick 32, round 2. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2001: 1st: LaDainian Tomlinson rb, 2nd: Algae Crumpler, TE
2002: 1st: TJ Duckett: RB
2003: 1st Willis McGahee, RB
Analysis: This is a tougher one, because you end up with possible HOF Tomlinson as well as probowlers McGahee and Crumpler. That is a very impressive hall and probably about as well as you can hope for. Yet, in a QB driven league, the franchise QB is still more important. Franchise QB is still going strong, are the others? Not exactly.
Aaron Rogers:
Originally Drafted 2005, pick 24, round 1. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2005: 1st: Carnell Cadillac Williams rb, 2nd: Barrett Rudd LB
2006: 1st: Davin Jospeh OG
2007: 1st Gaines Adam DE
Analysis: Quite honestly, any way you look at it, this was a fairly piss poor return for Aaron Rogers. Cadillac never materialized, Rudd was a good not great LB, and Adams had an unspectacular career before an unfortunately untimely death . Joseph has had 1 probowl season, despite being one the highest paid OGs in the league. Easily the edge goes to the Discount Double Check guy.
Matt Ryan:
Originally Drafted 2008, pick 3, round 1. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2008: 1st: Glenn Dorsey DT, 2nd: Brandon Flowers CB
2009: 1st: Tyson Jackson DE
2010: 1st Gerald McCoy DT
Analysis: Its actually kind of funny to see that many selections on the DL yet none of them really panned out. McCoy has been to one Probowl but none of them really became the dominant DL players they were supposed to be. While he has had difficulty in the playoffs, Id still take Matty Ice over this group any day and twice on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford: Originally Drafted 2009, pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2009: 1st Mark Sanchez QB, 2nd: Brian Robiskie
2010: 1st: Joe Haden CB
2011: Julio Jones WR
Analysis: This is probably the toughest one. Joe Haden and Julio Jones are both young stars and can certainly help your football team. You could even go so far as to say that Haden may be a cornerstone of the Defense and Julio Jones a building block on the WR corp. Yet, as good as Haden is, he can only do so much from the corner. Jones is a great WR, but he needs a QB to throw him the ball. Even if he becomes as great as an Andre Johnson, the question still becomes: would you rather have a potential HOF WR or Franchise QB. I think i have to go franchise QB. AJ has been beyond great, but as great as he has been, in the 11 years he has been in town, the team has been to the playoffs in 2 years and has never gotten back the 2nd round.
At the end, I still take the franchise QB over the pieces picked up in trade.
So, what have we learned. Based on this, it clearly tells me that if you think a guy is a franchise QB you must take him. While you may get a probowler or possibly even a HOF player, it is unlikely you will find enough pieces to overcome the value of the franchise QB.
So, if you view Teddy Bridgewater as a franchise QB, its a no-brainer, you absolutely must take him.
