Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

[sandman]

Not saying this to be mean, but you're kind of all over the map here.

As it relates to other teams' consistency:

1.) what is their record over the past 5 years? Consistent winners? Consistently mediocre?

2.) How often do they advance to the playoffs? Anyone in the playoffs technically has a shot, though we know from last year's experience here that some teams are dead man walking going in.

3.) How often does this other team (whoever is being compared) choke when the games are on the line? A loss can be acceptable (Texans 2011 playoff loss), or a loss can be ridiculous (pick one of the many blowouts since the 11-1 start).

As it relates to the Texans:

1.) A Super Bowl win is the goal, of course. But I think you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who wasn't optimistic and hopeful after the 2011 playoff loss around here. That disproves the notion that a Super Bowl win is ALL that matters. Progress matters. Good play matters. Not dashing the hopes of your fan base one blowout at a time matters.

2.) As for the nebulous concept of having a shot, fans felt better going into the 2011 playoffs with a 5th round rookie QB than they did going into the 2012 playoffs with a seasoned veteran that was supposedly all that was missing from the 2011 team. Point being, the QB matters a lot. This team has no shot at a Super Bowl with Schaub under center. OK, mathematically, yes they do, but anyone with eyes knows better. Teams that have guys like Brady, Brees, Manning, or Rodgers ALWAYS have a shot. It's just the nature of the NFL these days. The rules changes and evolution of the game unfairly reward those with a great QB, moreso than teams with a great <insert any other position>.

At the end of the day, the Texans actually have been consistent, with just one deviation from that consistency. Now they are reverting to the mean.

Lete me see if I can try this another way:

Texan fan says, "This team can't get beyond a Divisional playoff game! Why can't they be successful like the Packers/Ravens/Colts/Saints??"

To which I was pointing out, none of those teams have any history over the last decade of consistently making it beyond a Divisional playoff game. Manning has done it only three times in his entire career, for Christ's' sake.

After only two years of getting to Divisional games, Texan Fan is stating that getting to Divisional games isn't good enough anymore. Then points to teams that rarely make it past Divisional games themselves.

It just seems like some people on here keep using the wrong model (teams) to express their expectations of what this team should be.

Talk about the Patriots. Talk about the Steelers. Focus on the organization, and not the QB that they wish the Texans had instead of Schaub.

 

[Runner]

Lete me see if I can try this another way:

Texan fan says, "This team can't get beyond a Divisional playoff game! Why can't they be successful like the Packers/Ravens/Colts/Saints??"

To which I was pointing out, none of those teams have any history over the last decade of consistently making it beyond a Divisional playoff game. Manning has done it only three times in his entire career, for Christ's' sake.

After only two years of getting to Divisional games, Texan Fan is stating that getting to Divisional games isn't good enough anymore. Then points to teams that rarely make it past Divisional games themselves.

It just seems like some people on here keep using the wrong model (teams) to express their expectations of what this team should be.

Talk about the Patriots. Talk about the Steelers. Focus on the organization, and not the QB that they wish the Texans had instead of Schaub.

I don't know who said the Texans have to get to the divisional playoff game every year to be successful; it wasn't me anyway. The original discussion was about being a consistent winner or threat. To summarize the record of the Kubiak Texans for his seven complete seasons:

Mean (average wins): 8.4 less than half of a game above .500
Median: 8 wins.
Mode (most common records): two each for 6-10 and 8-8.

This has been an average team, and this season is trending toward 8-8 or worse. It isn't about making the divisional playoffs for me. A successful team should be above average, or I don't understand how "successful" is being used. All of the win/loss stats point to just average and usually missing the playoffs. That is not a successful regime, even though they had a very successful season last year.

In defending the team, many say the Texans were "better than their record" for several of the seasons they missed the playoffs. To me, being a perennial underachiever is even more of a condemnation of the coaching. Any way it is sliced average results are average results.

All spin and homerism aside, the Texans are 2-4 right now with a tough schedule ahead. They are unlikely to get 10 wins or to the playoffs this year, which will really make the 12-4 record stand out as an anomaly. Are two playoff appearances in eight years - 25% - the mark of a successful franchise? I don't think it makes the Texans stand out as such.

A season after season expectation over average for this regime is a high expectation indeed.

 

[Rey]

Lete me see if I can try this another way:

Texan fan says, "This team can't get beyond a Divisional playoff game! Why can't they be successful like the Packers/Ravens/Colts/Saints??"

To which I was pointing out, none of those teams have any history over the last decade of consistently making it beyond a Divisional playoff game. Manning has done it only three times in his entire career, for Christ's' sake.

That's one of the silliest arguments I've heard and it shows that you still don't get the point. Id rather be in the position of every single tam you named. Phill kept Andy Reid around for all those years because the hope was there. No one knows what's going to happen. But as a fan you want to go into games thinking you have a good shot. You want to go into the playoffs thinking your tea is good enough to win games against tough opponents.

Most fans do not feel that way about the texans. Make me feel good and want to go out to games to support.

Talk about the Patriots. Talk about the Steelers. Focus on the organization, and not the QB that they wish the Texans had instead of Schaub.

So is all really about leave Schaub alone. Makes sense now.

 

[sandman]

So is all really about leave Schaub alone. Makes sense now.

Hardly. I don't post much here, but I've been just as vocal (I believe even here in this thread) as the next guy that Kubes and Matty Half-Ear are not the future of this franchise. I wanted them to be. I gave them every opportunity as a fan to be. They have both simply failed to meet expectations and I want the team to go in a different direction from both of them at the end of this year. But nice ad hominem...

 

[steelbtexan]

That's one of the silliest arguments I've heard and it shows that you still don't get the point. Id rather be in the position of every single tam you named. Phill kept Andy Reid around for all those years because the hope was there. No one knows what's going to happen. But as a fan you want to go into games thinking you have a good shot. You want to go into the playoffs thinking your tea is good enough to win games against tough opponents.

Most fans do not feel that way about the texans. Make me feel good and want to go out to games to support.

Great post, The Texans fans just want to not be embarassed on national TV games. Be it in the regular season or the playoffs. The Texans have been consistently avg for 8 yrs under Kubiak. Remeber the 2009 season when 9-7 was haile as some kind of great success? Then 2010 happened, (Gary missing the combine for an elective surgry after the 2009 season still irks me. Do you think Belichick/Johnson Parcells etc... would've missed the combine like Gary did) The Texans had a 12-4 2012 season and hailed themselves as SB contenders. Now in 2013 they're falling flat on their faces again. Does anybody see s consistent pattern here?

Speaking of consistency, there has only been one thing consistent about Garys teams, the inability of Gary to get his team to play hard for 4 qtrs each game.

 

[nero THE zero]

I don't know who said the Texans have to get to the divisional playoff game every year to be successful; it wasn't me anyway. The original discussion was about being a consistent winner or threat. To summarize the record of the Kubiak Texans for his seven complete seasons:

Mean (average wins): 8.4 less than half of a game above .500
Median: 8 wins.
Mode (most common records): two each for 6-10 and 8-8.

This has been an average team, and this season is trending toward 8-8 or worse. It isn't about making the divisional playoffs for me. A successful team should be above average, or I don't understand how "successful" is being used. All of the win/loss stats point to just average and usually missing the playoffs. That is not a successful regime, even though they had a very successful season last year.

I like this exercise. For perspective, over the same period of time:

Pats:
Mean: 12.6 wins
Median: 12 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Colts:
Mean: 10.6 wins
Median: 12 wins
Mods: 12 wins

Packers:
Mean: 10.6 wins
Median: 11 wins
Mode: 11 wins

Ravens:
Mean: 10.3 wins
Median: 11 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Steelers:
Mean: 10.1 wins
Median: 10 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Giants:
Mean: 9.4 wins
Median: 9 wins
Mode: 8, 9, 10 wins (2 each)

 

[Runner]

I like this exercise. For perspective, over the same period of time:
...

Thanks for doing the hard work. I didn't realize some of those numbers would be so high.

 

[eriadoc]

Thanks for doing the hard work. I didn't realize some of those numbers would be so high.

It certainly brings Kubiak's record into perspective.

 

[dalemurphy]

I like this exercise. For perspective, over the same period of time:

Pats:
Mean: 12.6 wins
Median: 12 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Colts:
Mean: 10.6 wins
Median: 12 wins
Mods: 12 wins

Packers:
Mean: 10.6 wins
Median: 11 wins
Mode: 11 wins

Ravens:
Mean: 10.3 wins
Median: 11 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Steelers:
Mean: 10.1 wins
Median: 10 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Giants:
Mean: 9.4 wins
Median: 9 wins
Mode: 8, 9, 10 wins (2 each)

I don't think any view of Kubiak's performance should be lessened by the 2006 season. Frankly, it was one hell of a coaching job to get six wins out of that team he inherited. Between the cap situation they were in and the incredible lack of talent, remove that season from view and then analyze the data.

I think critics of Kubiak have a good point. I don't have too many issues with his performance as head coach through 2009. However, he made a number of costly decisions that directly led to the 2010 cliff- all of them avoidable (and he had plenty of head coaching experience at that point. I thought he did a very good job in 2011, both before Schaub was injured and keeping things moving with Yates. In 2012, he did an average job, IMO, with the talent around him and the circumstances. This year, we are staring at a cliff again. It appears we may waste a great opportunity (this is the healthiest and most talented team we have had). If he doesn't right the ship and get this team playing well and into the playoffs, I do not disagree that he would "deserve" to be fired.

Personally, I am a big fan of Kubiak and don't want it to happen. Still, if the season continues to disappoint, I can't make a good argument on his behalf. I would expect McNair will make the move if that happens. My hope, then, is that McNair does not hire Wade but goes and gets a strong leader with vision. I like Wade as a D.C., but we would be saddled with the same problems... Wade is not a difference-maker on game day, and he does not have the dynamic vision that Kubiak lacks, IMO. Even more important, his coaching circle, from which his staff would be built, is certainly nothing to be excited about either!