infantrycak said:
Don't have to be told--it is easy to see. That contrasts starkly with other folks going down and/or getting replaced without any significant drop off.
Exactly. One of the points being made was that if we were going to use mainly a 3-4 there better be more than just Payne at the NT position. Once again, Payne is a good pass rusher from the NT spot, and he plays the position well enough. Looking at the situation further, however, will show that Payne is already 30, has had some injury concerns, and likely will not be able to play at the level he is now for very much longer. If the 3-4 were to be the main defense for the future, the Texans would need not only someone to provide depth for next year but someone who could take over in a year or two and maintain or improve Payne's level of play.
If simply adding depth was the answer then Montavious Stanley, Babatunde Oshinowo, or even Steve Fifita would be good answers.
I, however, am talking about the long term stability of the position if indeed a NT is needed. From what Kubiak has said, however, we can understand that the Texans will switch between a 3-4 and a 4-3 this coming year. This would actually be ideal with the personel we have considering we lack depth at some of the fundementally important positions in the 3-4.
Payne consistantly takes on two guys in the middle and makes plays. Stats don't tell everything, but:
Seth Payne 58 tackles, 4 sacks
Vince Wilfork 54 tackles, .5 sacks
Casey Hampton 42 tackles, 0 sacks
Jamal Williams 53 tackles, 0 sacks
Yeah sometimes stats are misleading, but it sure is odd that Payne as the clearly inferior player has the clearly superior stats--doesn't mean he is the best, but seems to me it weighs heavily against the assertion that he is the clear weak link on the D.
You are right, stats (especially from a position like NT) are misleading. In this situation they are very misleading because Payne himself gets more of a chance to pad his stats. I'll explain...
Offenses, in the NFL, will attack a defense where it is weak.
If you are weak in run defense, they will run the ball at you. If you are weak at defending the pass, they will air it out. If you are consistently weak at either of those areas then you will see plenty of tackles for that area of the defense. This is because they are continually put in the position to make the tackle.
I'll use Denver as an example. Denver had the #2 rush defense in the NFL (only by like a half a yard per game), but it was one of the worst teams in terms of pass defense. Why? Because Denver lacked a pass rush, consistently shut down the running game early, and jumped out to early leads teams found themselves passing a lot against Denver. The Broncos' coverage didn't suck by any means (in fact they were 2nd in the league in Interceptions), but because this is the way defenses attacked them you can see it in the statistics.
Denver's Tackling leaders:
Ian Gold, 88
Nick Ferguson, 79
Al Wilson, 72
Domonique Foxworth, 70
Champ Bailey, 64
John Lynch, 61
D.J. Williams, 55
Darrent Williams, 53
Not a single lineman in the top 8 tacklers. The closest player was Trevor Pryce with 33. The Broncos' two starting safeties, two corners, and even the nickel corner were in the top 8. That is pretty much the entire secondary. The leader was the WLB who they use constantly in coverage.
Now lets look at the Texans:
Morlon Greenwood, 112
DaShon Polk, 93
Dunta Robinson, 88
C.C. Brown, 79
Robaire Smith, 68
Seth Payne, 58
Marcus Coleman, 52
Shantee Orr, 50
The two middle LBs lead the team in tackles as would be expected of a 3-4 defense, with the best tackler on the team (yes we all know D-Rob is a great tackler and makes plays he shouldn't have to) coming in 3rd, and the SS - a very important spot in the 3-4 - coming in 4th. Right afterward, however,
we see the two players who shouldn't be making tackles in a 3-4. ...and just for argument's sake, if you combine Travis Johnson's and Gary Walker's stats (who basically split time) they would collectively rank 7 right behind Payne.
This shows that the Texans' run defense is poor, but of course you could have just looked at their Rush Defense ranking to see that. Still, in order to show how Payne's stats mean little it had to be said. As for his 4 sacks, yes, I said from the beginning that he is a good pass rusher.
Thanks, isn't that what I said?--underwhelming because of poor work ethic, fine to take in the 2nd round. And no there are not always questions about guys his size.
Even
Haloti Ngata has been questioned about his stamina and drive, and he was a finalist for the Defensive MVP award. Why do you think D-lineman are rotated all the time? Do LBs rotate frequently? Do you see the Jets take Ty Law out of the game, or the Broncos remove Champ Bailey? No, lineman rotate because it is hard for a 6'4" 300 lb guy to basically wrestle with a guy his size, get knocked down, and get back up over and over. The zone blocking scheme the Texans will employ this year actually makes it a point to knock lineman down all game long so the running game flourishes in the 4th quarter.
Watson is not nearly the lazy player a guy like Rodrique Wright (Texas) is. He has shown the type of character he has on several occasions, and when you play for an underachieving staff like the Wolverines it is expected that the players will end up... well, underachieving. Watson has still dominated from a 4-3 NT (not his natural position), and I again make the claim that you most likely haven't even watched him for a whole game.
Do they even teach people what a simile is anymore? I said his situation would end up like TJ's--i.e. rotating in behind someone else. Nothing in that implies or compares the two players in any other respect.
I apologize, I read to much into it and thought you were refering to Watson being the same kind of pick that Johnson was last year. I do have to say, however, that it generally takes a year or two for D-lineman to adjust to the pro game. So, the fact that Watson would back up Payne for a year is really expected. Wilfork did it under Traylor, and we all know who is more talented out of the two.
