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Current vs previous prospects

Texanmike02

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Standard understand if merged comment.

I haven't had the time to keep up with the draft or football much at all but I was throwing around an idea and I can't find anything out there like it. Would be great if each one of the draftniks out there would participate. The hard thing from year to year is putting the player rankings in context and I would love to get some of you guys thoughts on where the prospects rank in terms of the last 4 or 5 drafts. So if you're talking about Young/Stroud if you were to take the last 5 drafts where do they rank among prospects (at the time of the draft, not current day). I started a new thread because I think it is a bit of a different discussion that fills in some of the context that those of us who can't pay as much attention as we'd like to are missing. I mean I get the trade down or bpa strategy but if you look at stroud/young and see the a top 2 or 3 qb from the last 4 or5 drafts then you gotta take him. I'm not limiting it to the QB position, I really don't know where any of the prospects fit in.
 

banned1976

sleeper mode
Out of the last three drafts, top prospects at QB position
2022 - Kenny Picket, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Coral
2021 - Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones
2020 - Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts

I know for myself, I didn't like any of the quarterbacks in 2022 and didn't give it a single thought to take one at #3 overall. I definetly like this class much more than 2022. And it's not close. 2021 is kind of tough because of Lawrence. But the rest of the class is...meh. I like 2023 better. 2020 and 2023 are very comparable if we're just looking at these players as NFL prospects. I wasn't sure if Burrow was a one year wonder at LSU but I would have taken him #1 (if I needed a quarterback) based off of his ceiling. His 2018 season at LSU wasn't bad by any means. People talked like he just sprouted out of nothing in 2019 and put up other worldly numbers but he showed signs of that in 2018. Before his injury, Tua was the consensus #1 but the injury knocked him out of that spot and I wondered if he could ever be that player again.

I'd take first five quarterback prospects in this years draft over the first five prospects of any other year mentioned. But I'd take Burrow and Lawrence (as prospects) over all of them.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
Going by NFL.com rankings (Lance Zierlein), here are some pre-draft QB rankings from 2020-2023:

2020
1. Joe Burrow - 7.07
2. Tua Tagovailoa - 6.77
3. Justin Herbert - 6.45
4. Jordan Love - 6.36
5. Jacob Eason - 6.25
6. Jake Fromm - 6.16
7. Jalen Hurts - 6.14

2021
1. Trevor Lawrence - 7.40
2. Zach Wilson - 6.50
3. Trey Lance - 6.47
4. Justin Fields - 6.45
5. Mac Jones - 6.33
7. Davis Mills - 6.14

2022
1. Malik Willis - 6.41
2. Kenny Pickett - 6.40
2. Matt Corral - 6.40
4. Desmond Ridder - 6.36
5. Sam Howell - 6.22

2023
1. Bryce Young - 6.82
2. CJ Stroud - 6.70
3. Anthony Richardson - 6.40
4. Will Levis - 6.34
5. Hendon Hooker - 6.23
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Standard understand if merged comment.

I haven't had the time to keep up with the draft or football much at all but I was throwing around an idea and I can't find anything out there like it. Would be great if each one of the draftniks out there would participate. The hard thing from year to year is putting the player rankings in context and I would love to get some of you guys thoughts on where the prospects rank in terms of the last 4 or 5 drafts. So if you're talking about Young/Stroud if you were to take the last 5 drafts where do they rank among prospects (at the time of the draft, not current day). I started a new thread because I think it is a bit of a different discussion that fills in some of the context that those of us who can't pay as much attention as we'd like to are missing. I mean I get the trade down or bpa strategy but if you look at stroud/young and see the a top 2 or 3 qb from the last 4 or5 drafts then you gotta take him. I'm not limiting it to the QB position, I really don't know where any of the prospects fit in.
I suggest you quit your job, ignore spouse/girlfriend and children, and spend your time on what is important in life. My friend, you have to get your priorities straightened or not much hope for you.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
Edge Rushers (2020-2023)

2020
1. Chase Young - 7.37
2. K'Lavon Chaisson - 6.50
2. Yetur Gross-Matos - 6.50
4. A.J. Epenesa - 6.35
5. Josh Uche - 6.31

2021
1. Odafe Oweh - 6.44
1. Kwity Paye - 6.44
3. Azeez Ojulari - 6.39
3. Jaelan Phillips - 6.39
5. Chris Rumph - 6.31
5. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka - 6.31
5. Payton Turner - 6.31

2022
1. Aidan Hutchinson - 6.80
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux - 6.72
3. Jermaine Johnson - 6.49
4. Travon Walker - 6.48
5. George Karlaftis - 6.40

2023
1. Will Anderson - 7.02
2. Tyree Wilson - 6.77
3. Myles Murphy - 6.50
4. Keion White - 6.43
5. Will McDonald - 6.41
6. Lukas Van Ness - 6.40
 

BullRushTX

To'oTo'o A'go-go
Going by NFL.com rankings (Lance Zierlein), here are some pre-draft QB rankings from 2020-2023:

2020
1. Joe Burrow - 7.07
2. Tua Tagovailoa - 6.77
3. Justin Herbert - 6.45
4. Jordan Love - 6.36
5. Jacob Eason - 6.25
6. Jake Fromm - 6.16
7. Jalen Hurts - 6.14

2021
1. Trevor Lawrence - 7.40
2. Zach Wilson - 6.50
3. Trey Lance - 6.47
4. Justin Fields - 6.45
5. Mac Jones - 6.33
7. Davis Mills - 6.14

2022
1. Malik Willis - 6.41
2. Kenny Pickett - 6.40
2. Matt Corral - 6.40
4. Desmond Ridder - 6.36
5. Sam Howell - 6.22

2023
1. Bryce Young - 6.82
2. CJ Stroud - 6.70
3. Anthony Richardson - 6.40
4. Will Levis - 6.34
5. Hendon Hooker - 6.23
Very interesting. So Young and Stroud would be considered the 3rd and 5th best QB prospects of the last four years. Additionally, the rest of the 2023 QB prospects would be on par with the underwhelming 2022 class.
 

Texanmike02

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Edge Rushers (2020-2023)

2020
1. Chase Young - 7.37
2. K'Lavon Chaisson - 6.50
2. Yetur Gross-Matos - 6.50
4. A.J. Epenesa - 6.35
5. Josh Uche - 6.31

2021
1. Odafe Oweh - 6.44
1. Kwity Paye - 6.44
3. Azeez Ojulari - 6.39
3. Jaelan Phillips - 6.39
5. Chris Rumph - 6.31
5. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka - 6.31
5. Payton Turner - 6.31

2022
1. Aidan Hutchinson - 6.80
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux - 6.72
3. Jermaine Johnson - 6.49
4. Travon Walker - 6.48
5. George Karlaftis - 6.40

2023
1. Will Anderson - 7.02
2. Tyree Wilson - 6.77
3. Myles Murphy - 6.50
4. Keion White - 6.43
5. Will McDonald - 6.41
6. Lukas Van Ness - 6.40
So young is the best one to come around in a while? Worth more than what we can get for a 2 in your opinion?
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
Centers (2020-2023)

2020
1. Cesar Ruiz - 6.40
2. Lloyd Cushenberry - 6.32
3. Matt Hennessy - 6.20
4. Nick Harris - 6.12
5. Keith Ismael - 6.10

2021
1. Landon Dickerson - 6.42
2. Quinn Meinerz - 6.31
3. Creed Humphrey - 6.26
4. Josh Myers - 6.23
5. Michal Menet - 6.16

2022
1. Tyler Linderbaum - 6.70
2. Luke Fortner - 6.24
3. Cam Jurgens - 6.11
4. Chasen Hines - 6.10
5. Ben Brown - 5.91

2023
1. John Michael Schmitz - 6.41
2. Joe Tippmann - 6.35
3. Ricky Stromberg - 6.22
4. Luke Wypler - 6.22
5. Olu Oluwatimi - 6.19
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
I didn't want to watch the entire 1 hour PFF podcast, so I ffed to get the rankings.

1. Burrow
2. Mayfield
3. Lawrence
4. Young
5. Murray
6-10. Tua, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Jones.

No Herbert. No Stroud. No Josh Allen. No Lamar Jackson.
 
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Reactions: JB

AcresHomesTexan

No Longer Arlington: Escaped From Jerry's World
Staff member
I didn't want to watch the entire 1 hour PFF podcast, so I ffed to get the rankings.

1. Burrow
2. Mayfield
3. Lawrence
4. Young
5. Murray
6-10. Tua, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Jones.

No Herbert. No Stroud. No Josh Allen. No Lamar Jackson.
Summarize for the masses: The earlier years were mostly based on the "on field" grades from college performances. The last two years or so have incorporated more true projection as NFL teams might do. this adjustment was done because of misses based on dudes heavy with good QB traits (Allen, Herbert, Jackson) and over ranking dudes with high college performance ( Mayfield, Murray).
 
Last edited:

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
Summarize for the masses: The earlier years were mostly based on the "on field" grades from college performances. The last two years or so have incorporated more true projection as NFL teams might do. this adjustment was based misses based on dudes heavy with good QB traits (Allen, Herbert, Jackson) and over ranking dudes with high college performance ( Mayfield, Murray).
I think they may have overcorrected with Levis and Richardson, this year.
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Clearly it's premature to rank this years QB prospects with prior years classes because this class has yet to establish any kind of record in the pros, so any comparison is all apples and oranges.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
WRs (2020-2023)

2020
1. CeeDee Lamb - 6.81
2. Jerry Jeudy - 6.77
3. Henry Ruggs - 6.72
4. Justin Jefferson - 6.46
5. Brandon Aiyuk - 6.38
5. Michael Pittman - 6.38
7. Tee Higgins - 6.37
8. Jalen Reagor - 6.36

2021
1. DeVonta Smith - 7.13
2. Ja'Marr Chase - 7.12
3. Jaylen Waddle - 6.82
4. Elijah Moore - 6.43
5. Kadarius Toney - 6.36
6. Terrace Marshall - 6.34
7. Nico Collins - 6.28
8. Rashod Bateman - 6.27

2022
1. Treylon Burks - 6.50
2. Garrett Wilson - 6.50
3. Jameson Williams - 6.48
4. Chris Olave - 6.43
5. Drake London - 6.40
6. Christian Watson - 6.27
7. Jahan Dotson - 6.25
8. Skyy Moore - 6.24

2023
1. Jalin Hyatt - 6.50
2. Josh Downs - 6.46
3. Zay Flowers - 6.45
4. Jaxon Smith-Njibga - 6.41
5. Quentin Johnston - 6.40
6. Curtis Tillman - 6.38
7. Jordan Addison - 6.36
8. Tyler Scott - 6.35
 

DocBar

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
But that wasn't a problem for Young in college. Young had projection, production, and a clean bill of health. You just never know.
"You just never know" is why I don't get too up or too down over the majority of draft picks. Taking Stingley over Gardner being a recent one that I absolutely hated. Coaching and scheme make such a difference for draftees.
 

DocBar

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Both had questions entering the draft. For Gardner, it was level of competition and strength. For Stingley, it was injury concerns and lack of recent tape/rust. Gardner answered those concerns. Stingley, has not.
Gardner slammed the door on any concerns. Stingley ripped the door off it's hinges on his concerns.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
LBs ratings (2020-2023)

2020
1. Isisah Simmons - 7.03
2. Patrick Queen - 6.71
3. Zack Baun - 6.50
4. Kenneth Murray - 6.44
5. Logan Wilson - 6.33

2021
1. Micah Parsons - 6.89
2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah - 6.82
3. Zaven Collins - 6.39
4. Jamin Davis - 6.35
5. Nick Bolton - 6.33

2022
1. Nakobe Dean - 6.40
2. Devin Lloyd - 6.38
3. Christian Harris - 6.27
3. Quay Walker - 6.27
5. Damone Clark - 6.25 (injured)

2023
1. Drew Sanders - 6.70
2. Trenton Simpson - 6.24
3. Daiyan Henley - 6.20
4. Jack Campbell - 6.20
5. Henry To'oTo'o - 6.16
 

banned1976

sleeper mode
WRs (2020-2023)

2020
1. CeeDee Lamb - 6.81
2. Jerry Jeudy - 6.77
3. Henry Ruggs - 6.72
4. Justin Jefferson - 6.46
5. Brandon Aiyuk - 6.38
5. Michael Pittman - 6.38
7. Tee Higgins - 6.37
8. Jalen Reagor - 6.36

2021
1. DeVonta Smith - 7.13
2. Ja'Marr Chase - 7.12
3. Jaylen Waddle - 6.82
4. Elijah Moore - 6.43
5. Kadarius Toney - 6.36
6. Terrace Marshall - 6.34
7. Nico Collins - 6.28
8. Rashod Bateman - 6.27

2022
1. Treylon Burks - 6.50
2. Garrett Wilson - 6.50
3. Jameson Williams - 6.48
4. Chris Olave - 6.43
5. Drake London - 6.40
6. Christian Watson - 6.27
7. Jahan Dotson - 6.25
8. Skyy Moore - 6.24

2023
1. Jalin Hyatt - 6.50
2. Josh Downs - 6.46
3. Zay Flowers - 6.45
4. Jaxon Smith-Njibga - 6.41
5. Quentin Johnston - 6.40
6. Curtis Tillman - 6.38
7. Jordan Addison - 6.36
8. Tyler Scott - 6.35
Marvin Harrison Jr next year...that will be an interesting grade. He might be the first person taken in the 2024 draft.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
DT ratings (2020-2023)

2020
1. Derrick Brown - 7.11
2. Javon Kinlaw - 6.50
3. Ross Blacklock - 6.39
4. Jordan Elliott - 6.36
5. Raekwon Davis - 6.35

2021
1. Christian Barmore - 6.50
2. Levi Onwuzurike - 6.31
3. Milton Williams - 6.25
4. Bobby Brown - 6.21
5. Alim McNeil - 6.19

2022
1. Jordan Davis - 6.50
2. DeVonte Wyatt - 6.35
3. Travis Jones - 6.34
4. Phidarian Mathis - 6.27
5. DeMarvin Leal - 6.23

2023
1. Jalen Carter - 7.05
2. Calijah Kancey - 6.39
3. Bryan Bresee - 6.35
4. Mazi Smith - 6.34
4. Saiki Ika - 6.34
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
Edge Rushers (2020-2023)

2020
1. Chase Young - 7.37
2. K'Lavon Chaisson - 6.50
2. Yetur Gross-Matos - 6.50
4. A.J. Epenesa - 6.35
5. Josh Uche - 6.31

2021
1. Odafe Oweh - 6.44
1. Kwity Paye - 6.44
3. Azeez Ojulari - 6.39
3. Jaelan Phillips - 6.39
5. Chris Rumph - 6.31
5. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka - 6.31
5. Payton Turner - 6.31

2022
1. Aidan Hutchinson - 6.80
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux - 6.72
3. Jermaine Johnson - 6.49
4. Travon Walker - 6.48
5. George Karlaftis - 6.40

2023
1. Will Anderson - 7.02
2. Tyree Wilson - 6.77
3. Myles Murphy - 6.50
4. Keion White - 6.43
5. Will McDonald - 6.41
6. Lukas Van Ness - 6.40
Pretty cool to come away with LZ’s 5th rated QB and 2nd rated edge rusher from the past four drafts on the same night!
 
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