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Covid and the future cap ...

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Recently ran across this article that states many of the thing's I've been talking about for the last couple months as it relates to the future cap - including things like Tunsil & Watson's contracts and the dealings at the deadline - worth a read.


The effects of the pandemic are being felt on a daily basis in NFL facilities—in how teams are practicing, how teams are meeting and how people are interacting. And they’ve been felt on a larger scale in testing procedures, quarantines and game postponements.

The really hard part? Even when this season is over, the pandemic won’t be done impacting the league. The trade deadline is 12 days away and only brings more proof of that.

Lots of factors will determine the level of activity over the next week and a half, but after spending time on the phone the last 48 hours, I know this much—the lingering effects of the pandemic on NFL economics will be big. The ongoing revenue shortfall will take a chunk out of the 2021 salary cap, which could fall from $198.2 million this year to $175 million next year, and could reverberate in 2022 and ’23, as well.

In real-life terms, this isn’t all that complicated. NFL teams have budgeted since 2013 with the expectation that the cap would leap $10 million annually. That, until now, has held to form—from 2014 to 2020, it went up by at least that much each year. That’s why, oftentimes, you see star players’ contracts built with cap numbers that slowly rise over the life of the deal, the bet being that while the numbers go up, the percentage of the cap a deal takes up will stay flat.

So what happens when the cap goes down? We’re seeing it now. Those contracts are becoming like cars on a five-lane highway that really should be six lanes, with a bottleneck visible ahead … and the road soon going down to four lanes.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
The FA class next yr should be a good one.

Hopefully Cal does something out of character trims the fat before FA and truly participates in FA. (No signing Murray in FA isn't really participating in FA.)
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
To put this in perspective - the NBA recently reported it missed its revenue projections for 2019/20 by $1.5B which equates to about 20.27% of the previous years actual revenue of $7.4B and 18.75% short of projections for the season.

They only lost about 12% of their regular season - the other 88% was business as usual , Pre-Covid.


How hard did the coronavirus hit the NBA bottom line?

About a billion and a half dollars, according to a report from the Associated Press:

Revenue projections for the league this season were missed by about $1.5 billion, the [AP source] said. The losses were the result of a combination of factors — the shutdown caused by the pandemic, the cancelation of 171 regular-season games, completing the season in a bubble at Walt Disney World without fans, the nearly $200 million price tag for operating that bubble and a yearlong rift with the Chinese government that saw NBA games not shown on state television there…
 

Among the players linked to trade rumors: wide receivers Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills, defensive end J.J. Watt, outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus and running back Duke Johnson.

Looking at Cap relief and cap numbers for 2021:

JJ Watt: 17,500,000 ($0 dead money)
Brandin Cooks: 12,000,000 ($0 dead money)
Will Fuller: Rental - UFA in 2021
Kenny Stills: Rental - UFA in 2021
Randall Cobb: 10,625,000 ($12,250,000 dead money!)
Whitney Mercilus: 12,000,000 ($15,000,000 dead money!)

Net: Dump Watt, Fuller and Stills for draft pickets and/or prospects buried on some team's depth chart. Consider Cooks trades too, although hard to lose 3 WRs without one back.
Keep: Cobb (and maybe Cooks) for one more year (good pros to help you wide receivers), and Mercilus (can't get rid of that lousy contract until 2022).

Others to dump in the offseason, (if they can't be traded now):

David Johnson: $9.0M on cap for 2021, but only $2.1M in dead money ($6.9M savings). Washed up. HIGHLY overpaid.
Nick Martin: $8.75M on cap for 2021, but only $2.5M in dead money ($6.35M savings). Below average center, above average cost. Could keep one more year if we have cap room.
Bernardrick McKinney: $8.5M on cap for 2021, but only $1.5M in dead money ($7M savings). Underperforming his contract. Could keep one more year if we have cap room.

That rids us of most bad contracts, but leaves a lot of roster holes....hopefully we get some picks back in trades.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member

Among the players linked to trade rumors: wide receivers Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills, defensive end J.J. Watt, outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus and running back Duke Johnson.

Looking at Cap relief and cap numbers for 2021:

JJ Watt: 17,500,000 ($0 dead money)
Brandin Cooks: 12,000,000 ($0 dead money)
Will Fuller: Rental - UFA in 2021
Kenny Stills: Rental - UFA in 2021
Randall Cobb: 10,625,000 ($12,250,000 dead money!)
Whitney Mercilus: 12,000,000 ($15,000,000 dead money!)

Net: Dump Watt, Fuller and Stills for draft pickets and/or prospects buried on some team's depth chart. Consider Cooks trades too, although hard to lose 3 WRs without one back.
Keep: Cobb (and maybe Cooks) for one more year (good pros to help you wide receivers), and Mercilus (can't get rid of that lousy contract until 2022).

Others to dump in the offseason, (if they can't be traded now):

David Johnson: $9.0M on cap for 2021, but only $2.1M in dead money ($6.9M savings). Washed up. HIGHLY overpaid.
Nick Martin: $8.75M on cap for 2021, but only $2.5M in dead money ($6.35M savings). Below average center, above average cost. Could keep one more year if we have cap room.
Bernardrick McKinney: $8.5M on cap for 2021, but only $1.5M in dead money ($7M savings). Underperforming his contract. Could keep one more year if we have cap room.

That rids us of most bad contracts, but leaves a lot of roster holes....hopefully we get some picks back in trades.

Your dead money numbers are if they are cut , not if they are traded.

Mercilus - 2020 $1,550,000 & 2021 $4,650,000
Cobb - 2020 $2,000,000 & 2021 $4,000,000
 

badboy

Hall of Fame

Among the players linked to trade rumors: wide receivers Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills, defensive end J.J. Watt, outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus and running back Duke Johnson.

Looking at Cap relief and cap numbers for 2021:

JJ Watt: 17,500,000 ($0 dead money)
Brandin Cooks: 12,000,000 ($0 dead money)
Will Fuller: Rental - UFA in 2021
Kenny Stills: Rental - UFA in 2021
Randall Cobb: 10,625,000 ($12,250,000 dead money!)
Whitney Mercilus: 12,000,000 ($15,000,000 dead money!)

Net: Dump Watt, Fuller and Stills for draft pickets and/or prospects buried on some team's depth chart. Consider Cooks trades too, although hard to lose 3 WRs without one back.
Keep: Cobb (and maybe Cooks) for one more year (good pros to help you wide receivers), and Mercilus (can't get rid of that lousy contract until 2022).

Others to dump in the offseason, (if they can't be traded now):

David Johnson: $9.0M on cap for 2021, but only $2.1M in dead money ($6.9M savings). Washed up. HIGHLY overpaid.
Nick Martin: $8.75M on cap for 2021, but only $2.5M in dead money ($6.35M savings). Below average center, above average cost. Could keep one more year if we have cap room.
Bernardrick McKinney: $8.5M on cap for 2021, but only $1.5M in dead money ($7M savings). Underperforming his contract. Could keep one more year if we have cap room.

That rids us of most bad contracts, but leaves a lot of roster holes....hopefully we get some picks back in trades.
Or a lot of undrafted free agents?
 


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