thunderkyss said:
just for grins, please, another foray into futility.... answer this.
Is it your opinion, that if we are looking for a QB 2 years from now, you are confident there will be a prospect as good as Lienart/Vince... upside potential and all?? Basically, that While these two are special, they aren't that special, is that where you're at??
Or do you think the odds are slimer than slim that we would in-fact need another QB two/three years from now??
Of course there is a decent chance we made need another QB in a couple year. I don't think half of a season under a new coach and offense and hopefully new players surrounding him on offense (some of which will be rookies and will have their own learning curve time) would be adequate time to measure Carr's development under the new regime, but by the end of the first year you should have a decent idea of whether he is going to work out or not, and if it looks like he is not going to make it then it likely means we will be towards the top of the draft again next year and could look for a QB then, especially if we trade down and get an additional 1st round pick next year.
I think Leinart is a pretty special QB, and I think Vince definitely can become a special QB. I think Vince has the potential to be a more special QB than Leinart, but as of this moment he is not as special and it is yet to be seen whether he develops and surpasses Leinart. However, I think Carr can be a special QB as well, and I think after bringing in the new coach and offense the best way to evaluate if Carr can make it is to finally surround him with some better talent and give him the tools that any QB will need to succeed. Adding Reggie Bush gives him another offensive weapon. We need to address OLine at some point high in the draft. Trading down would yield us more picks and still allow us to build the OLine for Carr, bring in a couple other skill guys to help in the offense, and we can do a better job addressing the defense.
No QB could succeed in our offense last year with the lack of talent and horrible system, I hope there is no disagreement on that. The system is hopefully fixed, and now hopefully we'll add some additional talent so that any QB that we have can succeed. I see the merit of bringing in another QB as an insurance policy in case the one doesn't work out, but at the same time using that #1 pick on a QB rather than using it to add someone else to the team that can bring something to the team and help our current QB is, in my opinion, setting Carr up for failure, and once he goes down likely setting Vince up for failure too as he will have the same level of talent around him.
Adding Reggie Bush would bring in the biggest playmaker/home run threat that is available in the draft (not including QBs), I don't think there is much argument to that. So bringing in a talent like that adds a definite playmaking capability to the offense and gives whatever QB we have another great option to get the ball to, whether it's as a RB or WR. At the same time we are pretty solid at RB and decent at WR (could probably use a bigger possession WR), and our OLine and defense are bad, so trading down would allow us to focus our top pick on one of those two areas that are of biggest need for us (OT in D'Brick or DE in Mario Williams), and give us additional picks that we can use to fill in the rest of our OLine, defense, TE, and maybe that additional WR. That is why I think that is the best option for us.
If we draft Vince, I would not really be disappointed and I will still support our team and him. However, I think our team needs a lot of help on defense (almost every position other than D-Rob and DT) and some areas of offense (OLine, TE, and playmakers), and not using our top pick to bring in a top-tier talent at one of those spots would not be a wise pick. I think Vince should be a great talent in the NFL, he has great size, good speed, he has displayed leadership on the college level, he is a pretty smart player for a draft prospect but he still does make many mistakes. Many of his weaknesses are due to his technique or the system he's been in, and those are generally easier to fix, but they will take some time, and I think David Carr can be as good of a QB as Vince can. If we drafted Vince and kept David Carr, Carr would obviously start at the beginning of the year, but the first mistake he makes is going to bring boos from the crowd, chants for Vince, and extra criticism from the local media and many fans. Once Vince comes in, he is going to have the same team that David does, the same lack of talent (some of that should be fixed, but again passing up the opportunity to use our top pick to bring in an offensive weapon or defensive star will hold back the talent advancement). Vince will be less prepared to play than Carr is, so he's most likely going to experience the same, if not more, knocks that Carr will. Then how are fans going to respond? Either they will have these grandiose expectations for Vince that he won't be able to match and then he will be booed to, or since Vince is the local hero, he is going to get a pass with the fans, the same pass that many people have been complaining that Carr has received from our prior coaching staff. Keep in mind that the rest of the team and the young talent that we're hopefully bringing in is also adjusting to a new coach and system, so there will be some rough moments early on, and with Vince sitting in the wings I see the crowd being even more antsy and hostile towards Carr. Either way, I don't see that situation being good for Carr or good for Vince, and it takes away our best chance (our 1st round pick) at bringing in offensive talent to help whichever QB we go with or to bring in a stud defensive player to anchor our defense and help get our offense back on the field without having to sit out 6-9 minutes for another 80 yard TD drive by the opposing team, which we saw far too much of this year. Bringing in Vince would help ensure that one of our QBs is
talented enough to lead this team, but in my mind it delays fixing the problematic areas of our team and holding back our talent development and is setting up both of these QBs for failure.
Also going back to your earlier question on maybe needing a QB in a couple years, I think that after this season we will have a better read on whether Carr looks like the answer for this offense or not. If he's not then we can start looking for a replacement QB, and we will likely be near the top of the draft again, especially if we trade down and have two 1st round picks. In my opinion, Brady Quinn is the best NFL prospect at QB that played in college this season, and he will be available next season, so, from what I saw this year and the type of players that they all are, I would rather have Quinn than Leinart or Vince anyways. I think he is the most prototypical NFL QB of the bunch, so if we genuinely put everything we have in this offseason into improving our team and giving Carr a legitimate chance to prove whether or not he is the man, and he ends up disappointing again, then we should be in a position to draft Brady Quinn next season to be our future QB, and as I said I'd rather have him than Leinart or Vince from what I've seen. On a side note, if we trade down and end up with two high 1sts next year and are displeased with Carr, we could be in a position to draft both Brady Quinn and Adrian Peterson to give us a stud QB and RB to build our future offense on, and as of now I'd rather have Quinn than any QB coming out this year and I'd rather have Peterson than Bush.
Htown34s said:
I've listed numerous downsides to keeping Carr, but not all in one place. Maybe I should round them up.
But I just remembered one: what if we keep Carr and he actually regresses or performs the same next year? I'd say that the fans don't have patience for Carr to have another bad year. So then do we take a QB in 2007?
So we'd basically be passing up a possible star at the position to give Carr one more try? I think that is very possible. By not taking VY you are saying that Carr will have a breakthrough season next year. If he doesn't, you're screwed.
As I mentioned above, if we deem that Carr is not worthy then we'll likely be towards the top of the draft next year, and I'd rather have Brady Quinn than Leinart or Vince anyways, and after trading down this year (if we do), we could also have a shot at Adrian Peterson. I think if we want an honest evaluation of Carr, we need to give him the most tools we can to succeed, and it will probably take the full season for Carr, our current players, and any incoming rookies to start running our new offense to its max potential, so we can't be too hasty to pass judgment on Carr next year either, and I think having Vince sitting on the bench will bring out the anger and impatience in the fans more than it should.
Well thunder, you asked for my take on it, and I think that sums it up pretty well, so in the 10 minutes it takes for people to read thru this short novel I realized I just wrote, I'll catch up on the other threads out there.
This thread was started just because I thought people would be interested in this event and at least it was entertaining to me to watch. The draft ain't until April, we still have to wait for the combine and workouts, so there ain't much going on.