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Clowney, then what?
- Thread starter thunderkyss
- Start date
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
I have talked at length with Doc about this and it isn't that minor and more importantly the surgery does not fix the underlying cause. Look in the last few pages and Doc repeats that and that even with surgery Clowney may be playing with pain for his career. This would be a better risk if it wasn't the key body part but it is. Clowney is about burst. Gary Walker went from one of the best penetrating DTs around to out of the league in short order because of a related condition, turf toe.
Overall that is where I am at.
I don't pretend to be a QB guru. Overall I rank them TB, Manziel, Bortles. I think 1 of them will be an above average starter in the league but the best I can hope for beyond that is if the Texans take one at all, they pick the best one. Putting aside the QBs I would go Watkins.
powda
The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
So Watkins? I could live with that.
But go ahead and throw me in the Clowney parade.
The1ApplePie
Hall of Fame
Manziel, Bridgewater, or Clowney. Give me one of those three, and I would be happy.
Just no Blake Bortles is all I ask
Just no Blake Bortles is all I ask
Why not Bortles?
Nitrofish
Let The Big Fish Eat!
Now this is a good post. Mainly because I agree with it.
I'm perfectly fine with any of the guys you mentioned with the exception of Mathews. However I wouldn't blow a gasket if he were the pick. I also would add Mack to that list. I do understand having reservations about Clowney's medical. I do as well. That is a legitimate concern. Has there been any word that we have a new medical staff? Sure seems like a lot slipped by the previous staff. Surely the Ed Reed fiasco cost someone their job.
klockWork
Rookie
You realize the Houston Texans are a billion dollar organization, right? With access to some of the best doctors, researchers and med facilities you think they haven't done their homework on this guy?
Any major sporting team would use their best resources to make sure their products are good to go with no defects. No offense to CnD but if the Texans multi-million dollar medical team says Clowney is clear, that would be the end of story for me.
PapaL
Loose Screw
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
Because the Texans have such a great track record in diagnosing injuries to both current and prospective players.
I asked earlier and I'll ask again. Do we still have the same medical staff? I really hope not. They were/are about as good at their job as our last special teams coach.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I've been saying Watkins for a while now but I don't think we'll go that direction. I think Watkins has the best combination of high Upside and high Downside. I think he's going to be the best player coming out of this draft and I think he'd do the most to improve our team and for 1-1, that's how I think you should judge this.
But I don't expect us to draft Watkins with the WR crew we already have. I think we are going to draft a WR or two this year but I expect it to be slot guys later in the draft.
My overall list would be:
1. Watkins
2. Robinson
3. Clowney
4. Mack
5. Matthews
6. Bridgewater
But I expect us to go Clowney or one of the QBs.
And your choice is who ?
Texian
Hall of Fame
Bortles #1 is all I ask!
We've already got our franchise LT who is under contract for several more years, and WR is a non-premium position which is already our strongest position on offense, maybe the whole roster. What we are really hurting for is an edge pass rusher to pressure the QB.
HOU-TEX
Ah, Football!
I'm pretty sure I've seen him say Tyler Ott, LS from Harvard, a time or two
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
So you take a chance on someone with huge questions and a much greater likelihood of busting and being out of the league in 4 years? I wouldn't. Drafting shouldn't be so much about what you need but rather what's available.
AJ isn't going to last forever and as much as I like Hopkins, I don't see him as AJ's replacement. Watkins could be. A WR crew of AJ, Watkins, and Hopkins would be hard to stop and could make even a mediocre QB look pretty damned good.
Although we have our franchise LT, we have a gaping hole at RT. With the change in the Rookie Salary structure, I don't have a problem nabbing a guy who really is more suited for RT right now and putting him there while he learns how to play the position and improve his pass protection. This gives us a superior line -- possibly one of the best lines in the league -- and that makes everyone else better. And if something happens to DB, we've got a guy we can put over there who's at least talented enough to play the position.
With Clowney, he's a risk. He's got health questions, motor questions, and motivation questions. He could be the best player out of this draft or he could get a paycheck and be done.
Like I said, I expect us to go Clowney. I'll get behind him and I'll root for him to be the greatest OLB he can be and get lots of sacks for us. But that's just not the strategy I'd take.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
As have I, many times, and Dr. CND has yet to tell me to pull him for medical. Will call him again to see if I can get that opinion.
klockWork
Rookie
Yeah, I knew the Boselli bomb would drop. Just want to see who take the bait. Comparing an old vet with shoulder injury against a 21 year-old with minor bonespurs... I like my chances a lot more on the youngins.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
You won't get a do not draft opinion from him and I am not saying he has said anything like that. He would take the risk IF Clowney promises to have the surgery immediately. He's also doesn't say surgery = wham bam light a cigarette. I don't differ from what he has said on the medical issues but we differ on the decision to be made based on that.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Ahh, okay. Still need to catch up on this issue with him... my rememberer needs to be reminded more often.
The1ApplePie
Hall of Fame
I find your reluctance to draft Clowney even though you expect O'Brien/Smith to do just that very curious ? Is it you think the Texans are just plain incompetent, or perhaps you think they are reckless in downplaying a risk you perceive to be very substantial with Clowney ?
But I would expect AJ to have atleast 2 more years as our #1 receiver, and with both Hopkins and Posey showing promise as #2 WRs, what we really need in the receiving area is a slot guy and help at TE. With so many glaring holes on the Texans DC, just don't see the wisdom in using the #1 overall in maybe our strongest position on the team ?
But your thoughts about improving the OLine with a pick at RT makes a lot of sense: consider Taylor Lewan for that position because he's might be a better pass blocking talent that Robinson or Matthews
while still being a solid run blocker.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Just because I have a strategy that I consider superior doesn't mean that someone who disagrees with me is incompetent or reckless. I can acknowledge the fact that other people have other strategies that they prefer. It's just a difference of opinion.
I think that OB and Smith think that the combination of JJ Watt, Brian Cushing, RAC, and Kollar offset Clowney's potential problems and provide a good framework in which he can be successful.
The thing about drafting BPA is that sometimes you improve a strength. I don't know how many more years AJ is our #1. But having at least a year or two for his replacement to learn from him would be a good thing, I think.
This is a deep draft at WR and I expect to fix the Slot in this draft. I'm not so sure that Posey and Martin are going to make the team this year.
My problem with Lewan is that I'm afraid he's mentally unstable in a Richie Incognito sort of way. He can get overly aggressive on the field and that also spills into his personal life. If I were judging purely on what I've seen playing-wise, I'd agree with you. He'd probably be my top OT in this draft... if he had a better grasp of reality.
The Boselli angle is either disingenuous agenda-driven or it is based on ignorance of early Texans history.
Boselli was a Casserly deal with the Jags to get Walker and Payne in the expansion draft. At this point, it's not even speculation, but verified history by many of the people involved. The Jags need cap relief and the Texans needed players. Make a deal to take Boselli off their hands and they leave another player the Texans wanted on the board.
I do not hold Boselli against the Texans or think it's even worthy of mention in a story like the Clowney situation. It's like comparing apples to tennis balls.
Well even though Clowney is my personal choice (in lieu of being unable to do a trade), I don't necessarily have a feel, not even a touch about who I think the Texans will use their 1.1 to select ? But your reservations about Clowney seem to center around motivational/"motor" type issues as you failed to mention specific concerns about Clowney's physical fitness including concerns about possible lingering injuries ?
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
And showed that Clowney topped out the list at facing help 25% of the time, not the "all the time" frequently asserted around here.
noxiousdog
Rookie
Nice article. I watched the Florida/South Carolina game and Florida wanted NO part of Clowney. They did so many quick drops and ran to the other side.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
The running to the other side has merit, but the quick drops don't (JMO). If you watched many Florida games last year then you would notice how elementary their passing attack was. They lived off short passes and quick drops. It was quite embarrassing really. As a team, they threw 11 TD passes last year to 9 INT's and only averaged 6.60 yards per attempt.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Again, different people, different opinions. I think they're leaning toward Clowney and then two later round QBs.
Other people think they're going to go Bortles or whatever.
My biggest issues with Clowney are with his motor. I acknowledge that he's got bone spurs and those could cause him some problems but those aren't my biggest concern with him.
When you look at "athletic freak" types of lineman that have been drafted high, you see a bunch of sure-things that seem to fail because of that lack of motivation/desire/drive. For every Bruce Smith there's a Vernon Gholston; for every Julius Peppers, there's a Courtney Brown. I'd even put Mario Williams into that list of guys who, if he had the motor, could have been a dominant player in this league but who's not.
So the fact that Clowney has questions about his drive and fire are huge red-flags to me. The fact that I watch his games and I see him with a lot of plays where he doesn't seem to be trying very hard bother me.
Earlier on in this process, I had him off my board completely as someone I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole because of his production issues and his motor questions. The last thing I wanted was another Aaron Curry or another Sam Montgomery.
But I've softened on that stance. Some other big-name guys have had less production in their last year of college. And I've liked what some of the pros like Bruschi and McGinest have said about him. So I've still got red-flags but I'm not totally against him like I was.
noxiousdog
Rookie
Wow, that IS awful. But it does still limit Clowney's opportunities. There's more games to watch!
bhsman
Rookie
That article only counts pass-rushing downs, not total. Nor does it account for stuff like how many times they ran or passed away from him like during the Tennessee game.
Not to mention that 25% put him at nearly double the rate of every other prospect evaluated in that piece, including Anthony Barr.
But sure, I guess a vague term like 'all the time' isn't the same as 'twice as much', Clowney's a fraud.
Out of curiosity, would Clowney have been your top pick last year had he been eligible for the Draft ? He wasn't of course because he'd only been in college 2 years, but coming off of his outstanding sophomore year that was also very producitve most Draft guys say Clowney would have been the top guy in last years Draft even though he was only 2 years out of HS.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Clowney would easily be #1 last year. But keep in mind that the 2013 draft was one of the weakest drafts in years as far as top talent goes. Eric Fisher went #1 overall. He wouldn't even be the top ranked OT this year. Dion Jordan went #3. He wouldn't go top 10 this year.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Unfortunately, I don't follow college ball that closely.
I only start really looking at guys after the NFL season is over and only when they're eligible for the draft and have announced that they're coming out. When I've looked at Clowney, I've ONLY looked at his past year's tape; I think a lot of the people who are the most sold on Clowney are people who've spent a lot of time watching his 2012 film. I don't go back to previous years unless the guy I'm looking at was injured.
I'm not a hardcore draftnik like a lot of the guys on the board. I've got no pretensions about being a scout or a GM. I listen to the people who are to get a feel for which players to concentrate on and then I start tracking down game film for those guys that seem interesting. I like to have a general idea of who should be drafted where but I don't break everyone down.
Yes I know last years Draft was weak. Now I've also heard reports that as a freshman Clowney would have been #3 overall after Luck & RGIII in 2012. Agree or disagree ?
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Well that draft was also pretty weak once you got past Luck and I guess Griffin (not a fan). Hell, Trent Richardson went #3 that year.
It's certainly possible though. Clowney had a pretty good freshman year (8.0 sacks and 12.0 TFL) and was a very highly touted recruit. He definitely had a lot of scouts' eyes on him. I have a feeling those reports might have been written after his fantastic sophomore year though (13.0 sacks and 23.5 TFL). It's easy to project that in hindsight.
It's completely in the eye of the beholder though. We'd never know with any certainty unless freshmen were eligible to be drafted. The physical tools were there since he was a youngster though, he's a rare specimen.
Dan B.
Hall of Fame
Watkins had a pretty subpar sophomore year in 2012 (700 yards and 3 TD's). Certainly not the stats of a #1 overall receiver. Was he dogging plays that year or trying all out and failing? So just like Clowney, he's had two stellar college seasons and one that was fairly mediocre.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
IIRC, he was suspended for a few games for a drug arrest. Which is much better than being perceived as "lazy"......
Dan B.
Hall of Fame
IIRC, he was suspended for a few games for a drug arrest. Which is much better than being perceived as "lazy"......
Yep. 2 games for drugs and he missed another game too. The thing is he didn't really show up in their big games that year:
vs S. Carolina 4 catches for 37 yeards
vs Florida St: 6 catches for 24 yards
Bowl versus LSU: 0 catches, 1 rush for -3 yards.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/512839/year/2012/sammy-watkins
Outside of that Wake game and maybe NC State that's not a great year. It's not horrible, but it's underwhelming, especially compared to every other year he played football.
Just like Clowney
Texian
Hall of Fame
IIRC, he was suspended for a few games for a drug arrest. Which is much better than being perceived as "lazy"......
Missed 4 games in 2012 due to suspension and injuries. Also shared the field with DeAndre Hopkins who was putting up monster numbers in 2012.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Obviously the clear reason for this is because our boy Nuk' was tearing things up.
vs. South Carolina - 1 reception for 43 yards and 1 TD (Boyd had a bad game, Clowney also had 4.5 sacks)
vs. Florida State - 5 receptions for 88 yards and 1 TD
vs. LSU - 13 catches for 191 yards and 2 TD's
Dan B.
Hall of Fame
Clearly we should draft Watkins so that he can get injured/suspended and help D'Andre have a great second year.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
I agree. We'll need to draft Boyd too though.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Clowney hasn't had 2 stellar seasons and a mediocre season. If he had, he'd be the hands down #1 pick.
And Watkins' 3 seasons... even the mediocre one... compare favorably to AJs. So. Unless you think AJ isn't a #1...
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Which... I have suggested...
I think where guys like Gabbert goes has just as much to do with his success, as his talent. Jim Harbaugh thinks there's something to Gabbert, so it's possible he's not as bad as he's looked.
One of the reasons I wouldn't have a problem with passing on a first round QB this year, is that I believe all of them are going to need the right environment to be the solid starter we need (possible franchise QB). & I'm hoping OB is good at providing that environment.
Now if there was a can't miss franchise guy, a Peyton Manning, or Phillip Rivers... even someone like Cam Newton, I'd want to take that guy in the first.
If Manziel had Newton's size, no doubt about it, I'd be all over wanting to take him in the first.
If Bridgewater had that production & poise at Pittsburgh, or UNC, or any school in a major conference, I'd be pounding the table for him with the #1 overall.
If Aj McCarron had a gun for an arm, I'd want him with the first overall.
If Mettenberger had numbers like Bridgewater, he'd be my pick.
But with the mix that these guys have, I'd rather take an elite talent with the 1-1.
That article only counts pass-rushing downs, not total. Nor does it account for stuff like how many times they ran or passed away from him like during the Tennessee game.
Not to mention that 25% put him at nearly double the rate of every other prospect evaluated in that piece, including Anthony Barr.
But sure, I guess a vague term like 'all the time' isn't the same as 'twice as much', Clowney's a fraud.
There is no bigger fact checker or stickler for details on this board than infantrycak. He's anal about it. So when he used stats that were accumulated from insufficient data there is only one conclusion. He be trollin!
Gimme a break Thunderkyss, he gave up a 6th round pick for him. So yea he thinks he's something, but apparently not much.