Toxicology
Practice Squad
Administrators - If this violates the warning about multiple threads on the Bush/Young debate, sorry. Please merge into another thread.
I don't post much and would like to hear comments regarding this. I won't bother citing all the evidence, but from what we have heard, I think this is what McNair is thinking and he will choose Bush.
McNair wants to take the course that has the highest upside potential - which would be (1) betting on Carr developing into the QB everyone thought he could be when originally selected, and (2) Bush becoming an elite RB. All statements from Reeves, Casserly, Kubiak, and McNair indicate that they believe Carr is the man and will improve drastically under better coaching. Likewise, all statements indicate that they think Bush is a tremendous prospect and will become an elite RB. If so, Carr/Bush and Johnson is our answer to Manning, James and Harrison. We're picking Bush.
I don't agree because Carr hasn't showed enough (even under adverse circumstances). I highly doubt he will be more than above average. I give a lot of weight to mental toughness and ability to make plays as quarterback. Carr just hasn't shown the ability to go through his progressions consistently.
Likewise, I have a lot of reservations about Bush becoming desmond howard, rocket ismail or eric metcalf. I'm in favor of taking VY but exercising a 2 yr option on Carr, for the following reasons.
1. IMO, the new coaching staff will have more impact on the Texans from a W-L perspective in 2006. If Bob McNair is being realistic, 6-7 wins for 2006 is the goal. The new coaching staff can probably get there, regardless of whether we get Young or Bush. Switch to the 4-3. Run DD and Morency behind the Denver Bronco's line. That's enough for 6 to 7 wins. Shoot, the 2005 team should have won 4-5 games.
2. Then who to chose, VY or Bush? What to do with Carr? The best way for Bob McNair to hedge his bets is to pick up the 2 year option on Carr and draft VY. In 2006, Carr gets one last shot to show what he's got. While he's doing that, VY is learning and the fans aren't going beserk. The team wins 6-7 games, the fans aren't angry b/c VY is waiting in the wings. After a 2-14 debacle, 6-7 wins is ok.
3. What's worse for Carr? Draft VY and the fans boo every time Carr throws an incompletion, chanting VY's name? OR, let VY go Tennessee and the fans will boo every time Carr throws a bad pass. It's the same. The only difference is that the fans won't be upset at the team if VY is here.
4. Doesn't McNair want an "impact player"? Yes, but see point 1 above. Bush won't have that much of an "impact" from a W-L standpoint. (my opinion). Bush's impact would be from a gate/fan interest standpoing. VY kicks bush's *** in that category.
5. Fast forward to mid or end 2006: At that point, You know a lot more about Carr's ability, you have insight on VY's progress.
Here are the possibilities for 2006:
A. Let's say Carr takes a huge step forward and you are faced with dealing VY. The rest of the world doesn't know squat about Vince's progress and he is still hot property. In next year's draft, it is entirely conceivable that you could package VY and our first round pick for Adrian Petersen. No stretch whatsoever. In 2007, you have a polished Carr and Adrian Petersen. Yeah, that doesn't stink. I'll go on record right now and say that Adrian Petersen's NFL career will crush Reggie Bush's (and I hate OU). What about angering the fan base? Well, if Carr is proving to be the guy, the fans will understand a lot better than if McNair declines to draft VY now, before anyone knows whether Carr will ever live up to his "potential".
B. Alternatively, let's say Carr improves, but not much, and VY is progressing. You are faced with trading Carr for a 3rd rounder. So, in 2007, you start VY, DD/Morency. Under this assumption though (that Carr doesn't improve much in 2006 under the new staff), thank goodness you didn't pick Bush instead of VY. IMO, A mediocre Carr plus Bush is probably not good enough to get into the playoffs, certainly not enough to unseat Indy, and certainly not enough to win it all. Even if Bush becomes an elite running back. Remember, Indy has Manning, James and Harrison - Mannign being the most important piece. Assuming that Bush becomes an elite rusher (and not Eric Metcalf, Rocket Ismail or Desmond Howard), we'd have James and Harrison, but no Manning. A 2nd year VY has the potential (in the future) to push us into the playoffs. No lock to do so, but potential with a high upside.
C. Alternatively, Carr doesn't improve, and VY looks clueless, and Bush was Rookie of the Year with 1,400 yards rushing. We'd be better off with Carr and Bush, but we could still deal VY. Nobody else knows that VY can't get the job done. This is our worst case scenario, but the down side is controlled.
In short, by taking BY, you delay the QB decision, control the downside risk, take the path with the highest upside, and enable yourself to make the decision based on much more information -- all at little or no cost to the franchise in terms of Wins and Losses and fan base.
But McNair is swinging for the fences, and will take Bush.
I don't post much and would like to hear comments regarding this. I won't bother citing all the evidence, but from what we have heard, I think this is what McNair is thinking and he will choose Bush.
McNair wants to take the course that has the highest upside potential - which would be (1) betting on Carr developing into the QB everyone thought he could be when originally selected, and (2) Bush becoming an elite RB. All statements from Reeves, Casserly, Kubiak, and McNair indicate that they believe Carr is the man and will improve drastically under better coaching. Likewise, all statements indicate that they think Bush is a tremendous prospect and will become an elite RB. If so, Carr/Bush and Johnson is our answer to Manning, James and Harrison. We're picking Bush.
I don't agree because Carr hasn't showed enough (even under adverse circumstances). I highly doubt he will be more than above average. I give a lot of weight to mental toughness and ability to make plays as quarterback. Carr just hasn't shown the ability to go through his progressions consistently.
Likewise, I have a lot of reservations about Bush becoming desmond howard, rocket ismail or eric metcalf. I'm in favor of taking VY but exercising a 2 yr option on Carr, for the following reasons.
1. IMO, the new coaching staff will have more impact on the Texans from a W-L perspective in 2006. If Bob McNair is being realistic, 6-7 wins for 2006 is the goal. The new coaching staff can probably get there, regardless of whether we get Young or Bush. Switch to the 4-3. Run DD and Morency behind the Denver Bronco's line. That's enough for 6 to 7 wins. Shoot, the 2005 team should have won 4-5 games.
2. Then who to chose, VY or Bush? What to do with Carr? The best way for Bob McNair to hedge his bets is to pick up the 2 year option on Carr and draft VY. In 2006, Carr gets one last shot to show what he's got. While he's doing that, VY is learning and the fans aren't going beserk. The team wins 6-7 games, the fans aren't angry b/c VY is waiting in the wings. After a 2-14 debacle, 6-7 wins is ok.
3. What's worse for Carr? Draft VY and the fans boo every time Carr throws an incompletion, chanting VY's name? OR, let VY go Tennessee and the fans will boo every time Carr throws a bad pass. It's the same. The only difference is that the fans won't be upset at the team if VY is here.
4. Doesn't McNair want an "impact player"? Yes, but see point 1 above. Bush won't have that much of an "impact" from a W-L standpoint. (my opinion). Bush's impact would be from a gate/fan interest standpoing. VY kicks bush's *** in that category.
5. Fast forward to mid or end 2006: At that point, You know a lot more about Carr's ability, you have insight on VY's progress.
Here are the possibilities for 2006:
A. Let's say Carr takes a huge step forward and you are faced with dealing VY. The rest of the world doesn't know squat about Vince's progress and he is still hot property. In next year's draft, it is entirely conceivable that you could package VY and our first round pick for Adrian Petersen. No stretch whatsoever. In 2007, you have a polished Carr and Adrian Petersen. Yeah, that doesn't stink. I'll go on record right now and say that Adrian Petersen's NFL career will crush Reggie Bush's (and I hate OU). What about angering the fan base? Well, if Carr is proving to be the guy, the fans will understand a lot better than if McNair declines to draft VY now, before anyone knows whether Carr will ever live up to his "potential".
B. Alternatively, let's say Carr improves, but not much, and VY is progressing. You are faced with trading Carr for a 3rd rounder. So, in 2007, you start VY, DD/Morency. Under this assumption though (that Carr doesn't improve much in 2006 under the new staff), thank goodness you didn't pick Bush instead of VY. IMO, A mediocre Carr plus Bush is probably not good enough to get into the playoffs, certainly not enough to unseat Indy, and certainly not enough to win it all. Even if Bush becomes an elite running back. Remember, Indy has Manning, James and Harrison - Mannign being the most important piece. Assuming that Bush becomes an elite rusher (and not Eric Metcalf, Rocket Ismail or Desmond Howard), we'd have James and Harrison, but no Manning. A 2nd year VY has the potential (in the future) to push us into the playoffs. No lock to do so, but potential with a high upside.
C. Alternatively, Carr doesn't improve, and VY looks clueless, and Bush was Rookie of the Year with 1,400 yards rushing. We'd be better off with Carr and Bush, but we could still deal VY. Nobody else knows that VY can't get the job done. This is our worst case scenario, but the down side is controlled.
In short, by taking BY, you delay the QB decision, control the downside risk, take the path with the highest upside, and enable yourself to make the decision based on much more information -- all at little or no cost to the franchise in terms of Wins and Losses and fan base.
But McNair is swinging for the fences, and will take Bush.
