I think we will be able to sign foster and Mario. I can't remember the last time a team let someone of mario's caliber walk because they couldn't afford him. That's not going to happen. Someone will restructure, cap moves will be made, he will be signed IMO.
As far as filling other holes. . .???
What gaping holes are you looking to fill in free agency that we can't attempt to fill in the draft?
Brooks reed, Mario, and barwin in a healthy rotation makes me excited.
I think the Panthers letting Julius Peppers become a UFA probably meets this criteria, but I agree, there's several things that could happen with Mario, and him becoming unrestricted is likely the last thing the Texans want to see.
Here is the list of things that could happen with Mario listed by my best guess at what the Texans order of preference would be.
1. Agree to a long term deal prior to the start of the 2012 off-season.
2. Franchise him, and negotiate a long-term deal prior to the start of the 2012 season.
3. Franchise him (non-exclusive) and match another teams contract offer (unlikely).
4. Franchise him and let him play the 2012 season under that guaranteed one year deal.
5. Franchise him (non-exclusive) and choose not to match another teams contract offer and get two first round draft picks (also unlikely).
6. Franchise him and trade him ala Jared Allen or Matt Cassel.
7. Let him become an unrestricted free agent.
I also believe the estimates of a $16 Million franchise tag amount may be a bit low. I know for a fact that the prior years salary that must be increased by 20% includes more than just the base salary (Pro-rata portion of any signing bonus as an example). I know Jim Trotter from SI has indicated it would be in excess of $20 Million. I don't know exactly how much it will be, and I'm not going to argue, I'm just going to say I believe it's possible it could be more than most on this board have indicated.
In spite of my questions about what the amount of the franchise tag will be, I will say that I believe if necessary (If item 1 from the above list fails to happen), the Texans will put the franchise tag on him regardless of the amount. The one thing we know for a fact is that whatever Mario's 2011 cap amount is, franchising him will increase that number by less than $4 Million for 2012. While $4 Million is admittedly a big number, I would ask you, if the Texans are willing to let him count anywhere from $15 to $18 Million against the 2011 cap, are they going to let him walk and get nothing in return beyond a possible late third round compensatory pick, when for less than that $4 Million amount, they can provide themselves several options that provide far more value than one late third round pick. Throw in the fact that there will be some sort of increase to the total cap next season, and I absolutely don't believe they will.