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Breaking it down

TejasTom

All Pro
Here's a play I'd like some feedback on. It was 2nd & 10 on the Texans first offensive drive (after the Reid int).

It looks like a designed jet sweep the whole way. I don't think there was an option to pass the ball at all because both Tunsil and Martin appear to release right away and they would have been illegal receivers downfield. Also, Fuller appears to be in block mode right from the start.

A couple of questions:
  • This plays was blown up by Suh, as he got to Stills fast and appears to have at least help cause the incompletion. Was it designed to let Suh go free? Was Tunsil supposed to at least give a chip before he releases? Seems odd to me that Suh was allowed to go untouched.
  • Hyde appears to not know the play. He runs right pass the LB and appears to look back ready for a pass. Instead, the LB was in prime position to make the tackle on Stills for a TFL. Hard to imagine Hyde's role there was to not block that LB.

View attachment 5243
Looks like Sharping should of had Suh instead of doubling the nose.

bucs1stQtr2-10.JPG
 

ROO

Tweak the offense already!
No, you don't need a twitter account. Looking at the Windows icon on the bottom left, it appears you're running Windows 7 and maybe Internet Explorer 11. Looks like it might be an issue with Twitter and IE 11. Do you have another browser? Firefox or Chrome? Otherwise, we might need another method of posting the breakdowns from Twitter accounts.
Thanks for the advice, I installed firefox and the videos play now, much obliged.
 
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TejasTom

All Pro
That's another possibility. Max IS a rookie and could be doing things rookies do.

If anyone remembers when the Texans ran the jet sweep previously, then we could probably compare.
If someone can remember one I’ll go back and look.

I might look for one tonight after I get home from the game while listening to the post game.
 

powda

Founding father of the W.B.
Here is another breakdown. Even though the play works, it just seems like we are in a 3 WR set on 3rd and about 5 and this is just not a high percentage play. Especially when you consider the problems with the OL and pass protection.


Yup. The shallow routes are slow to release. Luckily there was only a 4 man rush. There was no quick outlet for Watson in the event of an immediate rush or blitz.

The problem with 2 shallow crossers at roughly the same depth like that is when they intersect they will both be covered for a few steps. For about a second and a half neither are an option. As the video shows though, they did serve their purpose.

I like the route combination of fuller (? far side wr on a streak) and Hopkins on the deep in. It worked well against the cover 2.

I don't like the route of the near side wr (is that keke or stills?) Its a deep crosser lagging just a few yards behind hopkins. At the break point in routes there 1 defender could defend both wrs or at least delay a read by Watson. The near side wr route here is basically a throwaway for me. What does it do? It develops just as slow as the other routes and potentially drags a defender into hopkins route. Would be better served here with a short 5-7 yard out to give Watson an early option or even a deep out pulling the near side safety away from hopkins.

The cb on the near side wr had inside leverage and any kind of out cutting route shouldve been effective against that.

This is jmo ofcourse. Do we ever know for sure if a wr is missing a read and making the wrong cut?
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Here is another breakdown. Even though the play works, it just seems like we are in a 3 WR set on 3rd and about 5 and this is just not a high percentage play. Especially when you consider the problems with the OL and pass protection.

I like it. Good design, gets Hopkins open on third down. Had the FS bit on Hopkins, Fuller would have been open deep.

Poor throw though. Was there pressure I didn't see?
 

powda

Founding father of the W.B.
I like it. Good design, gets Hopkins open on third down. Had the FS bit on Hopkins, Fuller would have been open deep.

Poor throw though. Was there pressure I didn't see?
No pressure at all. And I was wrong. The near side CB plays outside leverage against the near side wr. A corner route (we called them pylon routes) wouldve been lethal against the shallow zone he played.
 

Earl34

Rookie
No pressure at all. And I was wrong. The near side CB plays outside leverage against the near side wr. A corner route (we called them pylon routes) wouldve been lethal against the shallow zone he played.
No pressure. It was an anticipation/timing throw into the open window. I would love this play on 1st or 2nd down and using Duke to go right at the MLB to influence him and get a wider window and throwing lane. Still on 3rd down from that formation, I expect more options than waiting on Hopkins to find a hole in the zone.
 

powda

Founding father of the W.B.
No pressure. It was an anticipation/timing throw into the open window. I would love this play on 1st or 2nd down and using Duke to go right at the MLB to influence him and get a wider window and throwing lane. Still on 3rd down from that formation, I expect more options than waiting on Hopkins to find a hole in the zone.
This is actually a pretty simple read I think. The safety follows the streak or sticks inside closer to dhop.

Again, as you mentioned, the routes are all slow to develop. Not a solid call on a blitz down. I'd like the play more on 1st or 2nd down.

I was always under the impression pass plays (outside of hot routes) were designed with 2 functions. I thought these principles were mostly constructed by bill Walsh in the 80's...

Every play should have a timing progression based on steps and cuts. As example, short routes left, intermediate middle, deep right. A QBs eyes would naturally progress from one side to the other.

Additionally, some routes are better at beating man coverage and some at zone coverage. All pass plays should include both ,and all pass plays should have at least one fast developing route for blitz purposes. A play incorparating them all is nearly unstoppable given proper execution.

Worked great on madden. I dont see those elements in any ob pass plays.

Wtf do I know?
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
No pressure. It was an anticipation/timing throw into the open window. I
Why is it thrown low & behind Hopkins. That's the kind of throw I criticize Watson for. Other top QBs would have led Hopkins, throwing a ball that could be caught in stride.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
Why is it thrown low & behind Hopkins. That's the kind of throw I criticize Watson for. Other top QBs would have led Hopkins, throwing a ball that could be caught in stride.
Watson should have thrown that ball when his back foot hit. He could have hit Fuller for a big gain, because he was staring down DHop . And still could have hit DHop a bit earlier and led him up the seam
 
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dream_team

Hall of Fame
Why is it thrown low & behind Hopkins. That's the kind of throw I criticize Watson for. Other top QBs would have led Hopkins, throwing a ball that could be caught in stride.
I think he was trying to protect Hopkins. The safety was back there, ready to lay a hit on Nuk.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I plan to get the NFL game pass next season. My buddy and I have some things we want to check out. We'll split the cost and hang out together to study it.

Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment, but I'm going to to back and re-watch the Chiefs game (before it auto-deletes from my DVR) from the 24-0 mark, and specifically the Texans offensive possessions. It will only be the televised version (no all-22).

Why couldn't the Texans offense do much of anything after 24-0? I won't have access to all-22 film, but at least I can try to see (from a limited perspective) how much of it was bad scheme, bad execution, or a combination of both. This franchise has put so much talent on the offense that it blows my mind that it could be so anemic during such a crucial point of a playoff game.

That 51-7 run was a monumental failure. I get that Mahomes is the best QB in football, and I don't have a problem if you lose to that guy. It's HOW the Texans lost - the meltdown - that perplexes me as a fan.

I'd welcome anyone to join me in my quest for information. So many of y'all have a depth of football knowledge that I would appreciate it. I just want to satisfy my curiosity before finally putting a lid on this season, and also to comprehend where my already low expectations for 2020 should be.
 

santo

All Pro
Contributor's Club
I plan to get the NFL game pass next season. My buddy and I have some things we want to check out. We'll split the cost and hang out together to study it.

Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment, but I'm going to to back and re-watch the Chiefs game (before it auto-deletes from my DVR) from the 24-0 mark, and specifically the Texans offensive possessions. It will only be the televised version (no all-22).

Why couldn't the Texans offense do much of anything after 24-0? I won't have access to all-22 film, but at least I can try to see (from a limited perspective) how much of it was bad scheme, bad execution, or a combination of both. This franchise has put so much talent on the offense that it blows my mind that it could be so anemic during such a crucial point of a playoff game.

That 51-7 run was a monumental failure. I get that Mahomes is the best QB in football, and I don't have a problem if you lose to that guy. It's HOW the Texans lost - the meltdown - that perplexes me as a fan.

I'd welcome anyone to join me in my quest for information. So many of y'all have a depth of football knowledge that I would appreciate it. I just want to satisfy my curiosity before finally putting a lid on this season, and also to comprehend where my already low expectations for 2020 should be.
I don't know, but one of the turning points was when OB ran two running plays up the middle on the same drive that he went for it on the 4th and 1. I think OB couldn't recover fast enough after that one. When KC woke up after that, it was all over.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Mainly un-imaginative play design and calling by O'Brien as usual.
And when he decided to do something different, he tried a weird pass to Hopkins in the backfield (when defenders were swarming all around.
Hopkins had nowhere to go; as he was fumbling with the ball, he tried to toss it back to Watson, but there was no-go on that end either.
I'm still trying to figure out how that play was supposed to work.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Up 24-0, the Texans allowed a 52-yd return UP THE MIDDLE.
That's blasphemy, if you ask me.
....

Then Andy Reid called a couple of great plays.

1-10 Chiefs in 11Personnel.
RB lined up to the left, on the short side of the field.
3 receivers spread out on that side.
Kelcee was the lone man, a couple of yards outside the RT.
*** News alert.
He has all the room on the right side to work with.
.....

A play action fake brought the LILB up.
Kelcee put on an In-and-out move on Reid and he was free.
Mahome gets a clear line of vision.
Easy 25-yd gain as the Texans had a lone single safety who was also concerned with 3 deep routes on the other side.
One receiver (Hill) ran a crossing route to occupy that safety.
...

I mean; that's a great play design if I've ever seen one.

That's putting your players in a position to succeed.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Next play at the Texans 17.

RB26 motions from right to left and settles in the backfield similarly to the last play.
The Chiefs are now in the same formation, but with Hills on the right side and Kelce in the left slot.

Texans in press-man, 52 up front and a lone deep safety.

Here comes another great play design by Reid.

Because of the man scheme, it's easy for Kelce to occupy three defenders temporarily.

21 Roby follows the slot receiver on his shallow crossing route and hinders the LILB 41 temporatily.
The slot receiver's shallow crossing route temporarily hinders the ROLB 54 (who was supposed to take on the RB 26.

The outside receiver takes the RCB deep.

Easy TD.

.......

O'Brien shows very little of the same aptitude for play design and how to teach the players to execute the play optimally.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Ahead by 24-7 with 9:55 left in the second quarter, Hyde ran for 5 on first down.

On second down, Hyde could muster just one yard against a 4-3 front
I'm not sure what the blocking scheme was, but it seems that they wanted Tunsil to get to the second level to take on the WLB, but he got caught and couldn't get there.

On third and 4, I think DW4 and Fuller weren't on the same page.
Fuller ran a 5-yd quick curl to the left flat against press man coverage.
He initially had outside leverage, but for some reason, turned to the inside.
It was a quick timing route; DW had set up to the throw the out route before Fuller made his break.
If DW4 had gone ahead with the throw, it would probably have ended up a pick-six so he threw the ball into the ground.
(He was already in his motion to throw the out route.)
Here, OB needs the receiver to beat his man without help from the play design; just mano a mano, and pray that the QB is on the same page with the receiver.

That right there is the nutshell of OB's play design more often than not.
Totally different from Andy Reid.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Next came the infamous faked pun, and just like that it soon became 24-14.

On first down, the Chiefs lined up Hill and Kelce on the same left side.
The Texans overloaded that side in response.
Mahomes looked off the lone deep safety (you can see it) and turn right to give his Z receiver a shot in one-on-one against Hargreaves.
It was probably a poor throw by Mahomes; good coverage by Hargreaves.
At any rate, that was in keeping with going long after a turnover, but Hargreaves defended it well.
..................

On 2nd and 10, Kelce lined up by himself on the left against LJ and beat him easily.
Johnson panicked and committed a PI to give the Chiefs first and goal at the 5.
..................

Kelce bobbled the ball on the next pass to allow Hargreaves to help making sure he didn't reclaim the ball.
That ball should have been caught, but kudo to Hargreaves anyway for staying with it.
Still, it was a good call by Reid.
He had Kelce in motion from the left to right to match up on a small CB.
The faked jet sweep brought most defenders away from play side.
The safety had to come up on Mahomes who was on the roll out to the right along with his TE.
Reid gave both his players a chance to score there against one-on-one without having to work hard for it.
................

On the next play, the Texans came with a 5-man delayed blitz.
Reid had the RB and 2 receivers running routes to the right, clearing space in the middle.
Hill ran the crossing route to the left, bringing both Roby and Reid with him, again, clearing space in the middle.
Kelce ran a delayed in route from left to the middle, and LJ was no match for him.

And just like that, it was 24-14 with 8:05 to go in the half.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
After the mutt by Carter, it took the Chiefs 3 plays to score; each was a well-designed play by Reid that create one on one opportunity for his players; two with option for Mahomes to run it in if the defense slacks off.
The third play involves a rub route to give Kelce space, which is something the Chiefs do all the time with success; not so much with OB and his offensive game plan.

24-21 Texans with 6:31 to go in the half.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Texans started the next drive with a 4-yd pass to Hopkins against cover 2, 5-under zone.
The tackler missed, allowing Hopkins to gain another 5 yards.
There was a short Hi-Lo against the zone on the right side.
Nothing genius about the play design/call here.
Nothing to complain about, nothing to rave about either.
.....................

On 2nd and 1, the Chiefs still stayed with 2-deep safeties.
With number (of blockers) on its side, any average defense should be able to gain a yard here.
RPO to allow Watson to keep the ball was an easy call.
It was a good time (and rather a no-brainer) for an RPO run there on 2nd and 1.
Watson bursted through a couple of defenders to gain an extra 5 to make it a 10-yd gain overall.
The Chiefs basically gave up that first down (they have 8 men around the box against 10 offensive players.)
No complaint on the play call; the offense was supposed to win in that instance, and win they did.
....................

Another first down.
Same cover 2, 5 under zone.
Same Hi-Lo short concept on the right.
A dump off to Hyde in the middle of the zone; he avoived a shoe-string tackle by the LB to gain a few extra yards for the first down.
We'll see how long the Texans can keep nickle-and-dime the KC bend-but-don't-break zone.
That was just easy throw-and-catch.
.................

Another first down.
Same cover 2, 5 under zone (4-man front).
With 9 offensive players vs. 7 in the box, you'd think the Texans should be able to run the ball here.
Not so.
The Texans somehow decide to option the LDE, cutting off their own running lane to the right edge.
Martin got stalled in the middle.
The RDE split Tunsil and the LG. (Either 78 or 74 missed the assignment here, it looks like.)
They got Hyde surrounded for no gain.
That's a wasted play.
They doubled up the LDT (and gained on that block), but they optioned the LDE (that shut down the lane creating by the double-team.)
It would have made more sense if they have the TE 87 chip the LDE before releasing to the second level, or have the first back engage in blocking the LDE (or both).
Then let Hopkins and the second back run to the right (like in Bill Yeoman's veer).
Something similar to the diagram on this page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veer
...................

On 2nd and 10, the Chiefs tighten up their defense.
They lined up (with a single deep safety) in man coverage against the Texans empty backfield.
With the clock running out, the Texans called a TO.
The Chiefs changed their D to cover 2 , off-man coverage.
The Texans came with that wacky screen to Hopkins in the near left slot.
They wanted 78 Tunsil to come out and block Hopkin's man.
That's insane when the DB 35 was right at the LOS; Tunsil will never get there in time.
Not only that, they also sprung out the LG; thus allowing the RDE to get into the backfield untouched.
These two defenders had Hopkins surrounded in no time at all.
In fact, they allowed the whole nest of Chiefs into the backfield due to called screen play; Watson never had the chance even if he didn't bobble the ball and fumble it.
What an idiotic way to turn number against its own offense.
.....
3rd and 12 now.
The Chiefs drop back into the same 52 zone coverage.
A simple Hi-Lo concept in the middle of the field isn't going to work, not against an experienced player like Mathieu.
He carried his receiver just long enough before breaking back to Hopkins for a bang bang play.
(This receiver would have been taken care off by the FS).
Mathieu probably came in a bit early, but on those plays, the refs usually don't call them since things happen so fast in real time.
Mathieu could have (and probably should have) stayed in his zone, and Hopkins would have never "looked" open to begin with.
There was no real concept to help out the receiver here.
It was a good throw by DW4.













..................
 

FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
Takes a bit of time - and I don't know if I have the time to cut up videos for each play/series but we will see what I can get around to... Only focusing on pass plays at the moment with screenshots as it is much harder to do for run plays and capture anything valuable, but I will still list out the run plays so the entire series is shown.

Any of my comments are of course my opinion - I'm not asking you to agree with me, I'm asking you to discuss it and see what we come up with.

Not much to discuss here, they rush 4 but it is a quick WR screen to Hopkins, the ball came out on time

1579964539508.png

2nd & 9 at HOU 26 - (14:29 - 1st) (Shotgun) C.Hyde left guard to HST 28 for 2 yards (D.Wilson)

They rush 5, quick slant to Fuller - the ball is out when DW's back foot hits

1579964938957.png

Quick pass for 9 yards yet by the time it is done (less than 2 seconds) the oline is pushed back into DW's lap
1579965013460.png

DW's back foot hits, and one DB is effectively defending Hop and Fuller - horible play design, or DW needs to let it fly knowing Hop is coming open (e.g. DW 'throwing' guys open? Chiefs rush four by the way.
1579965514910.png

About 1/2 a second later - If DW would have released the ball when his foot hit e.g. throwing to the spot Hop is going to be at, well that could have been a completion. But all the defenders are back watching DW and have just as much chance at catching the pass as Hop does so decides not to throw and begins working progression.
1579965823824.png

By this point (3 seconds since snap) everything is pretty well covered and dead - so dump off to Hyde for a short gain.
1579965943186.png

2nd & 8 at HOU 39 - (12:35 - 1st) C.Hyde up the middle to HST 46 for 7 yards (M.Pennel). HST-C.Clark was injured during the play.

Chiefs Blitz, and bring seven rushers - DW who "can't read a blitz" already see's Stills, Stills already knows its a TD if he gets the ball - good job all around
1579966280409.png

Ball is coming out 2 seconds after the snap, receiver is open restults in touchdown
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Second Series... 8 plays, a whopping 29 yards and took 4:59 off the clock

1st & 10 at HOU 15 - (7:08 - 1st) (Shotgun) D.Johnson left end to HST 26 for 11 yards (D.Wilson).

Box score shows up as a 'scramble' but to me its designed RPO trying to give DW multiple options - Fells, Stills, or keep it
1579966841679.png

Decision was keep it - nice pick up on the ground (could have been a pass so included it in the play breakdowns)
1579966956395.png

2nd & 3 at HOU 33 - (5:52 - 1st) (Shotgun) C.Hyde left end to HST 40 for 7 yards (T.Suggs; D.Sorensen).

1st & 10 at HOU 40 - (5:18 - 1st) C.Hyde up the middle to HST 45 for 5 yards (B.Breeland).

.... Can only attach 10 files in a post so will continue in new...
 

FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
"Throwing" someone open - backfoot drops and ball is coming out where Fuller is going to be. Chiefs rush four.
1579967381873.png

Just over two seconds from snap to completion - any longer and the right end rusher would have killed Watson
1579967494730.png

Deep drop back - 10 yards from where the spot of the ball - no idea why DW doesn't throw to Hop here, this is about when his back foot is planting, he is looking in the direction of hop, the DB's are concerned with Fuller getting by them - my opinion this could have been a completion to Hop plenty of space to step up and deliver a good throw here - the DB by the 42/43 yard line on the right hash is the one running to get to Hop, takes him a second to get there, he wouldn't have beaten the ball
1579967682499.png

Chiefs blitz, bring 6 rushers, DB off the edge this is the back of DW's drop, ball is already coming out because, in my opinion, he correctly read the blitz - however he has one option, chuck it up for Stills which he does but it is incomplete
1579968057426.png

A better thrown here and it would have been completed - DW has to make that throw (my honest opinion here, yeah I want to see that be a completion - but if you watch any other football you will see 31 other QB's miss that throw 50% of the time - we cheer when it works and cuss when it doesn't - no QB has a 100% completion rate) but it's second down, not a bad down there to go for the big play.
1579968222454.png

And the drive killer - as I just mentioned, sure go for the big play on that second down - but probably need a better play for 3rd and long? Oh and the big problem here? It's a THREE MAN RUSH and they are already colapsing the pocket 5 on 3 and you lose?

I looks to me like DW is looking left (starting his progression on the left) yeah I wouldn't throw into that either, and if coach would have but me in during the 4th quarter we would have been state champs for sure, no doubt in my mind :) and now he has to start to scramble it's 3rd down so throwing the ball away wouldn't buy you 'another down' so he has to try and make something happen - no time to sit in the pocket and scan the field
1579968497587.png

Less than a second later and the rushers are there - his only option, again in my opinion, would have been to just decide to run with it, but he may have been thinking not going to get 11 with my feet here, need to try and buy some time - OL fail? Or play design - there were about 3 seconds from snap to sack at 1 or 2 seconds no where to throw
1579968851527.png

4th & 17 at HOU 44
(2:20 - 1st) B.Anger punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-J.Weeks. T.Hill MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HST-K.Crossen at KC 6.

End of the Texans second series - have some errands to run will try and continue later today/tomorrow

edited to continue...

Third Series - 2 plays 6 yards 48 seconds (TD - off the muffed KC punt return)

RPO, Chiefs defend it well - they should it's a play the Chiefs O runs a lot of. Two things for me, Watson could have perhaps flipped it back shoulder to Hop after he got the DB's to release, or at the very least sill show like he may throw to hold the DB and maybe gain a yard or two more. Fells is not a great blocker and did not help DW here.
1579991788979.png

Very next play was a TD, well designed, well executed. DW is preparing to go to Fells by the time his back foot plants. TD
1579992062683.png
 
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FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
Fourth series - 9 plays 38 yards (sigh) 4:55 off the clock, results in FG

1st & 10 at HOU 49 - (0:49 - 1st) (Shotgun) C.Hyde right guard to KC 44 for 7 yards (B.Breeland; A.Hitchens).

2nd & 3 at KC 44 - (0:10 - 1st) C.Hyde left tackle to KC 42 for 2 yards (D.Wilson; D.Nnadi).

End of Q1

3rd & 1 at KC 42 - (15:00 - 2nd) D.Watson right end pushed ob at KC 39 for 3 yards (T.Mathieu). PENALTY on HST-R.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 42 - No Play.

Chiefs rush 4 - This is as his back foot plants - he takes two small hop/steps (drifting slightly left) before in my opinion standing and delivering from the pocket and leading Hop to where only he could catch the ball - down and away. Fells will be working the middle of the field and DW could have gone there for the check down, but it wouldn't have been a first down (in my opinion, Fells would have had to have some shake in him after the catch, which isn't something we have seen a lot of)
1579992465575.png

End of the play to show where everyone ended up at.
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1st & 10 at KC 39 - (13:47 - 2nd) (Shotgun) C.Hyde left guard to KC 37 for 2 yards (D.Wilson; D.Sorensen).

Chiefs rush 5 - DW steps up into the pocket to avoid the outside rusher and delivers a strike to Fuller. To me this is an example where he feels the rush, steps up in the pocket, delivers an accurate ball that leads Fuller (throws him open) and gets a nice 15 yard gain.
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Just after Fuller catches the ball and turns upfield.
1579993074942.png

1st & 10 at KC 22 - (12:28 - 2nd) C.Hyde right tackle to KC 21 for 1 yard (K.Saunders).

Designed roll out - DW is looking downfield but doesn't like what he see's no throw. DW needs to improve here, he could have hit Stills here in the middle with a throw like he just completed to Fuller, for whatever reason he didn't trust it. Fells is already losing his block and DW is going to be under pressure real soon
1579993231951.png

Decides to run, then last second tries to flip it to Fells (DW on the ground (highlighted)) a fraction of a second earlier just after Fells lost/gave up on his block DW had a window where he could have flipped it to Fells and had a better chance of making something of the play - overall - didn't see anything he liked, should have been more decisive on decision to run or pass/toss to Fells
1579993429428.png

(11:46 - 2nd) Timeout #1 by HST at 11:46.

Chiefs rush 4 - ball is snapped from the right hash, DW back foot plants then he takes one small and one medium how to drift further to his right. He isn't looking Fuller's way so that can't be his first read. Hop and Still are running the same route, at the same depth 2 or 3 yards apart only makes sense if the play was designed to go to Duke all along and everything else was a decoy to get him in open space where he is pretty damn good. It seems to me as soon as DW sees all the DB's take the bait he immediately looks to Duke and gets him the ball.
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Duke with the ball in his hands and some green around him is pretty damn good and elusive - really should try and work these scenarios more
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(10:58 - 2nd) Timeout #2 by HST at 10:58. (The time out that killed our chance to go for it on 4th and 1, kicked the FG)

Fifth series - 4 plays 8 yards 1:27 off the clock

1st & 10 at HOU 25 - (9:55 - 2nd) C.Hyde up the middle to HST 30 for 5 yards (X.Williams; D.Wilson).

2nd & 5 at HOU 30 - (9:16 - 2nd) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle to HST 31 for 1 yard (D.Wilson).

Chiefs rush 4 - DW throws when his backfoot plants - not sure what happened DW screwed the pooch or Fuller doesn't run the correct route but the ball hits the ground 3 yards from were Fuller stops his route
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FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
fifth series continued...

Ahh, the controversial fake punt call - was not my favorite call since it was from our own 31 but overall it probably still should have worked, they got what the wanted the two guys over the gunner aren't looking and don't know Reid has the ball. In my opinion, if Reid is heading more towards the sideline he can use his speed to get to the marker, but he tries to cut upfield here where the Chiefs player is coming right at him, tries a stiff arm, etc. but the Chiefs player makes a hell of a tackle. Still think if he is running towards the gunner they convert that down - but Reid is not a running back maybe not the right person for that play?
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Sixth series - 0 plays 0 yards 0:09 off the clock (thanks to Carter!)

(8:05 - 2nd) H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to HST 0. D.Carter to HST 21 for 21 yards (D.Sorensen). FUMBLES (D.Sorensen), RECOVERED by KC-D.Thompson at HST 24. D.Thompson pushed ob at HST 6 for 18 yards (K.Crossen).

Seventh series - 6 plays 27 yards (whoa boy - let's pump the breaks on the explosive offense) 3:44 off the clock - Punt

Chiefs rush 4 - ball is out as soon as his backfoot hits - accurate throw from the pocket, Hop makes a man miss 9 yard gain
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2nd & 1 at HOU 34 - (5:51 - 2nd) (Shotgun) D.Watson left end to HST 44 for 10 yards (D.Sorensen). Designed run for DW, get's 10 yards

Chiefs rush 4 - again ball is out of DW's hand as his backfoot plants nice completion to Hyde another 10 yards. Again notice how a 4 man rush is already in DW's lap - starting from the shotgun - our Oline is still not good
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1st & 10 at KC 46 - (4:28 - 2nd) (Shotgun) C.Hyde right guard to KC 46 for no gain (D.Nnadi).

(3:44 - 2nd) Timeout #3 by HST at 03:44.

Chiefs rush 5 - a free man coming off the edge which is fine from a blocking scheme as the play is another WR screen. However after a no-gain run on 1st down, we move away from all the plays that have been working up to this point and call this gem after a timeout - from the shot below does this look to have even a remote chance of success? Fells isn't a great block, and he doesn't have much chance for a block here anyway - just a horrible play call after a TO. All this leads to is Hop nowhere to go, a pitch back to DW for a fumble and no gain - why... no more WR screens somebody burns that section of the playbook!
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Chiefs rush 4 - the ball comes out pretty quick, one hop after his drop back delivers a pretty accurate throw, but would have been better to lead Hop some here instead of hitting him in the numbers
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Still think 9 times out of 10 Hop catches that - Mathieu does get there slightly early, in my opinion, the ball isn't there yet and he has Hop's right arm already. Hop normally tries to catch with his hands but this time decides to let it come into his body, if he is extending his arms intending to catch away from his body I think he still makes it. Like I said accurate throw hit Hop in the numbers in stride, but lead him a foot and Mathieu doesn't have a chance or gets called from PI
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Eighth series - 5 plays 44 yards 0:44 off the clock - missed FG

Chiefs rush 4 - good protection, DW dances in the pocket a bit waiting for the long-developing play throws a good ball to Hop, big gain.
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1st & 10 at KC 39 - (0:38 - 2nd) D.Watson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
 
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FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
Eighth series continued...

Chiefs rush 4 - by the time he reaches the top of his dropback, Tunsil is beat (inside spin move) and Clark is two steps away from a sack, scramble time. Just nothing open on the side of the field that is his primary target (left side) and absolutely no time to even look for his second read. This isn't a blitz that he didn't recognize, just our oline can't consistently block 4 defenders
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At this point he is just trying to hit Duke or throw it away to avoid the sack.
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Chiefs rush 3 - THREE - and the right side is already in trouble. Not much space to work here everyone is covered up nicely. The only play here is to just throw the damn thing to Hop just lead him a few yards inside (similar to the play earlier which Mathieu broke up) needs to trust that he can make that throw... next picture I'll talk about the problem I see here...
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DW has already started to scramble here - but look at the routes for Hop and Fuller, they are at the same depth and both running towards the middle deep safety. The safety does't have to commit to one one route or the other they are both coming toward him he is effectively able to guard both just by standing there. Both receivers are at least 5+ yards beyond the sticks. One of them needs to break off their route at a different depth and make the safety commit to one or the other. Oh and the line needs to be able to block 5 vs. 3. Only other knock here on Watson is he scrables but didn't need to the right side got beat initially but once DW steps up they are able to reengage so he still had a pocket to work with... I don't really believe he thinks there will be any place to go with the ball so takes off
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Last picture - at this point, even though there is open ground in front of him, he is just trying to get to the sideline and out of bounds to stop the clock before the half ends without a chance even of tryingn a field goal
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4th & 4 at KC 33
(0:03 - 2nd) K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-B.Anger.

And thats a half of football - this has taken quite a bit longer than I thought it would. Will try and pick it back up and get the second half in
 

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FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
first series - second half - 3 plays 2 yards 2:50 - Punt

No play here because of the illegal formation penalty - but wanted to highlight this is where Watson is feeling 'phantom' pressure Chiefs only rush three he can maintain a clean pocket but takes his eyes away from downfield and is just running around in circles in the pocket. Again this first picture is as his back foot plants, the second picture is about a half a second later Hop is by his man and if DW throws to where Hop 'should be' its a big completion. All moot on this particular play because of the penalty but highlights where DW does need to improve and trust what he sees
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As mentioned Hop is now open but DW had already started to scramble, needlessly, because everyone was double-teamed and the pressure was not coming
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Chiefs rush 4 - going to Hop all the way, ready to throw as soon as his back foot plants, good throw a nice pickup
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An arrow pointing to the ball
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2nd & 6 at HOU 30
(10:09 - 3rd) (Shotgun) C.Hyde left guard to HST 31 for 1 yard (M.Pennel).

Chiefs rush 4 - Tunsil gets beaten BADLY - Frank Clark almost gets to DW's dropback before DW - immediately has to go into scramble mode
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Just after DW steps up to avoid Clark - he had two options throw to Fells (on the 40) or just tuck it and run, there is some open space going up the middle around the left hash marks - but Clark may have still been able to catch him
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4th & 7 at HOU 29 - (8:40 - 3rd) B.Anger punts 48 yards to KC 23, Center-J.Weeks, fair catch by T.Hill.

Second series of the second half - 9 plays 75 yards 4:15

Chiefs rush 4 - takes a couple of small hops after planting his back foot waiting for the play to develop then gives a good throw to Hop
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Chiefs rush 4 - play action with DW rolling out to designed to go to Fuller all the way but DW doest throw high safety is right there another safety coming into the picture (35 yard line right hash). Not any time to look for second read as both Fells and Clark have now been beaten and in half a second are at DW. So another scramble and a bad to high toss to Hyde. Avoided the sack and basically threw it away to live another day
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Chiefs rush 4 - DW first looks left, didn't like what he saw went through progression found Stills, Stills does a nice job after the catch
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1st & 10 at KC 43 - (3:19 - 3rd) (Shotgun) C.Hyde left tackle to KC 39 for 4 yards (F.Clark).
 

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FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
Second series - second half continued

Chiefs rush 3ish (really only 2, the rest drop into coverage or are spying on DW) - Deep shot to Fuller all the way, never even looks at anyone else. Fuller never gets away from the DB eventually just chucks it over everyone. 2nd and 6 not a bad down to take a shot there, didn't work - on to 3rd down.
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Chiefs rush 4 - Clark is beaten like a drum again defender is almost to DW before he finishes his drop back - so from here mad scramble eventual toss to Hop who makes an incredible sideline catch
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The WTF play hand off to Fuller, toss to Stills - maybe could have worked by Martin and Clark just decide to let the DB come right threw and he blows the play up
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Chiefs rush 4 - deep ball to Fuller all the way, DW is throwing as soon as he ends his drop back Fuller out runs the DB, safety is to shallow/far away nice long completion
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Led to a designed run for DW and a touchdown (to little to late)

1st & Goal at KC 5 - (0:24 - 3rd) Deshaun Watson 5 Yard Rush K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-B.Anger.

Third series of second half - 6 plays 33 yards 2:15

Chiefs rush 4 - again looking for Fuller deep, but the DB plays this well and DW doesn't throw and starts progressions, not much else open at this point Hyde for basically nothing - the righs side of the line lets the tripple teamed defender push them all back into DW so he moves towards the left hash and goes to his outlet in Thomas
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Chiefs rush 3 - seems to be looking for Hop all the way plants his back foot and lets fly nice and acurate in between three defenders
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FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
Third series of second-half - continued...

Chiefs rush 4 - looks designed for Hyde all the way DW doesn't look anywhere else really and tosses it to Hyde as soon as he gets to his spot
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Chiefs rush 5 - a designed chuck it Hop in the end zone all the way - lets it fly as soon as he plants his back foot - almost intercepted, proabably should have read that Mathieu is in good possition to defend that throw and threw it to the underneath route (Carter) but hey your down a bunch and time is running out chuck it
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Arrow is on the ball... Hop has no chance
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Chiefs rush 6 - DW is throwing to Stills as soon as his backfoot plants (maybe a small hop after) but the throw is high
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(11:45 - 4th) Timeout #1 by HST at 11:45.

Chiefs rush 4 - looks like DW initial read was Fuller to the left but he was jammed by the DB off the line and was late getting out of it into his out route - so DW looks right where in a 5 yard radius you have 3 receivers, 4 DB's - why would you bunch your routes this way? Any way no where to go with the ball, DW can feel Clark loosing his man and starts to scramble - ends in a rushed high throw to Hop and DW on the ground
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FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
By this point, there isn't much left to see the Texans get two more series and even though they run a lot of plays they do nothing. Haven't seen much interest or discussion over this and those two series are 9 and 13 plays. If anyone wants I'll find the time to cut up those series.

My last thoughts...

1) All good O lines need a good nickname - ours is not a good Oline, they consistently break down with 3 and 4 man rushes - so I vote for naming them The Swiss Cheese Line until they prove otherwise

2) I think you can see from the plays that DW CAN deliver what some say he can't - e.g. throw with accuracy, throw with timing, throw people open, etc. etc. however inconsistency is his downfall right now sometimes he just doesn't throw when he should or where he should which brings me to...

3) He is getting happy feet - again not totally his fault, this organization has once again failed to deliver a line that can protect, the right side is weak (Clark is horrible) our center is pushed back to far too often. I do have hope Tunsil (except for mental breakdowns) is solid Max has some skill to work with. But to me Fuller has to go, Martin needs to be upgraded (won't happen with his new contract) and Howard needs to lock down RT, and Clark needs to be at home blocking the TV
 
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leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Yup. The shallow routes are slow to release. Luckily there was only a 4 man rush. There was no quick outlet for Watson in the event of an immediate rush or blitz.

The problem with 2 shallow crossers at roughly the same depth like that is when they intersect they will both be covered for a few steps. For about a second and a half neither are an option. As the video shows though, they did serve their purpose.

I like the route combination of fuller (? far side wr on a streak) and Hopkins on the deep in. It worked well against the cover 2.

I don't like the route of the near side wr (is that keke or stills?) Its a deep crosser lagging just a few yards behind hopkins. At the break point in routes there 1 defender could defend both wrs or at least delay a read by Watson. The near side wr route here is basically a throwaway for me. What does it do? It develops just as slow as the other routes and potentially drags a defender into hopkins route. Would be better served here with a short 5-7 yard out to give Watson an early option or even a deep out pulling the near side safety away from hopkins.

The cb on the near side wr had inside leverage and any kind of out cutting route shouldve been effective against that.

This is jmo ofcourse. Do we ever know for sure if a wr is missing a read and making the wrong cut?
I'm with you and this is my complaint. 1st off, why is the tight end in the game for that play. I think it would've been easier dictating the coverage with a wr.
 


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