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Beerlover Mock Draft 1.0

beerlover

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Very difficult on all of us, but this is scenario offered, trying to project what Texans might do with this draft. Not crazy about it but as stated in another thread projection this is at least a C+. Hated to give up pick #33 but Bryce is worth it. If Texans keep pick #33 I would select CB Emmanuel Forbes, 6-0 170 high ceiling ballhawk to pair with Stingley.

2. CJ Stroud, QB, 6'3" 214 Ohio State

Trade with Carolina. Panthers send 1st overall pick to Houston, Bryce Young QB Oklahoma. Texans send 2nd overall pick CJ Stroud in exchange, along with pick #33 second round.

Honestly feel there will be a draft and trade in place on draft day and Texans wind up with Bryce Young, Panthers get Texans 1st pick of the 2nd round, just not sure of timeline (before or after)? No sense going into details of Stroud, but do believe he is a better fit in Carolina than with Houston. Both ownership and DeMeco have publicly stated they're taking a QB, we just don't know the specifics of acquisition (Nick unwilling to give up #12 but agreeable to #33). Carolina still gets their QB and basically extra first round pick.

12. Nolan Smith, DE/OLB, 6-3 235 Alabama (pick acquired from Cleveland)
Leadership to run Ryans defense. High motor, elite athleticism/speed for position and football IQ. Star right out of the gate and highly productive, special ball hawking traits.

33. Texans trade selection to the Carolina Panthers along with pick #2 overall, CJ Stroud.

Hope this is more clear now, should have properly formatted it. Texans have tried to trade with Chicago to get that #1 pick but Carolina outbid them. Still think they’re holding out for the 12th pick overall but Caserio is not budging. Maybe after/or before picks both parties have a change of heart. I’m willing to give up early 2nd just to move up one spot but not anymore. Otherwise we roll with Stroud. And the 2nd rd. Pick -

33. Emmanuel Forbes, CB, 6’0” 170 Mississippi State
Ball hawking corner with elite length, speed & mental processor that translates to turnovers. His footwork is light, balanced with excellent change of direction, very quick for a six footer.

65. Joe Tippman, Center, 6'6" 317 Wisconsin
Very stout, smart, has a lot of upside to be a pro-bowl caliber Center for a franchise QB to develop for years to come. Excellent in pass pro and run blocking.

73. Marvin Mims, WR, 5’11" 185 Alabama (pick acquired from Cleveland)
Sabin/Ryans theme with Bama players, pair him up with Metchie III and you have yourself a nice combo for Bryce (familarity) both can quickly seperate in space so Young doesn't have to hold onto the ball any longer than he has too.

104. Zach Pickens, DT, 6'4" 305 South Carolina
Back to defensive side of the ball with a long, athletically gifted with frame desired @ defensive tackle, DeMeco can fit and move around schematically.

161. Zach Kuntz, TE, 6'7" 255 Old Dominium
Has elite size, speed, leaping ability (like he needs more) overall high end athleticism to be a serious Red Zone threat and weapon for Bryce Young.

188. Eric Gray, RB, 5-10-211 Alabama
Receiving threat out of the back field, elusive, stop and go with plus hands and experience already playing with Bryce Young.

200. Levi Bell, DE, 5'11" 271 Texas State
Thick, hard-nosed sleeper prospect who may go undrafted but for mock draft sake threw him in here to talk about a player new to most here. PFF graded him out 92.4% moves outside in NFL, super high effort motor, special teams player right away will work himself into 53 man roster and have an impact.

202. McCelndon Curtis, 6'6" 328 OT/OG, Chattanooga State
Great personality and work ethic adds depth to OL most likely future swing tackle to develop.


230. Chris Rodriques, RB, 6'0" 220 Kentucky
Solid frame, bruising RB who runs with violence & purpose like Dameon Pierce. Don't mind this pick late at all.

259. Derick Parish, DE, 6'1" 241 Houston
Speed edge rusher to develop, could even be rotated into backfield as blocking FB. Another special teams player, who helps Texan roster in all phases of the game.

player measurements copied off PFF 2023 Draft Guide

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Texansphan said:
Okay.
I heard it was #12 which is why Texans baulked.
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He explained it all in the OP

This is his mock

beerlover said:
Honestly feel there will be a draft and trade in place on draft day and Texans wind up with Bryce Young, Panthers get Texans 1st pick of the 2nd round, so you will not find that pick here.
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I think he meant to write Bryce Young & Not CJ Stroud... 194lbs
 
thunderkyss said:
Why don't the Panthers just take Stroud #1?
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They know Texans want Bryce so they leverage him to recoup some of the draft capital spent to move up to #1 in the first place. Also believe throughout this whole process been talking behind closed doors with each other over various scenarios.
 
I also used PFF draft guide and simulator for info, not best idea, but tried to keep it neutral and realistic as possible. The trade down was plus value 90% but was declined so forced it to accept.
Not sure other teams would trade up for #2? Don’t think Texans would trade within division. Panthers are in NFC South.
 
beerlover said:
They know Texans want Bryce so they leverage him to recoup some of the draft capital spent to move up to #1 in the first place. Also believe throughout this whole process been talking behind closed doors with each other over various scenarios.
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I lose respect for you & Caserio if he does it.

If Stroud is their guy & they take Young to spite the Texans... That's on them. Texans doing a pretty good job making it look like they'll trade out or just draft a defensive player. No need to give up anything.

Call the bluff.
 
beerlover said:
Very difficult on all of us, but this is scenario offered, trying to project what Texans might do with this draft. Not crazy about it but as stated in another thread projection this is at least a C+. Hated to give up pick #33 but Bryce is worth it. If Texans keep pick #33 I would select CB Emmanuel Forbes, 6-0 170 high ceiling ballhawk to pair with Stingley.

2. CJ Stroud, QB, 6'3" 214 Ohio State
Texans select the Best QB available in this draft. Honestly feel there will be a draft and trade in place on draft day and Texans wind up with Bryce Young, Panthers get Texans 1st pick of the 2nd round, so you will not find that pick here. No sense going into details of Stroud now but do believe he is a better fit in Carolina than with Houston. Both ownership and DeMeco have publicly stated they're taking a QB, we just don't know the specifics of acquisition (Nick unwilling to give up #12 but agreeable to #33). Carolina still gets their QB and basically extra first round pick.

12. Nolan Smith, DE/OLB, 6-3 235 Alabama (pick acquired from Cleveland)
Leadership to run Ryans defense. High motor, elite athleticism/speed for position and football IQ. Star right out of the gate and highly productive, special ball hawking traits.

65. Joe Tippman, Center, 6'6" 317 Wisconsin
Very stout, smart, has a lot of upside to be a pro-bowl caliber Center for a franchise QB to develop for years to come. Excellent in pass pro and run blocking.

73. Marvin Mims, WR, 5’11" 185 Alabama (pick acquired from Cleveland)
Sabin/Ryans theme with Bama players, pair him up with Metchie III and you have yourself a nice combo for Bryce (familarity) both can quickly seperate in space so Young doesn't have to hold onto the ball any longer than he has too.

104. Zach Pickens, DT, 6'4" 305 South Carolina
Back to defensive side of the ball with a long, athletically gifted with frame desired @ defensive tackle, DeMeco can fit and move around schematically.

161. Zach Kuntz, TE, 6'7" 255 Old Dominium
Has elite size, speed, leaping ability (like he needs more) overall high end athleticism to be a serious Red Zone threat and weapon for Bryce Young.

188. Eric Gray, RB, 5-10-211 Alabama
Receiving threat out of the back field, elusive, stop and go with plus hands and experience already playing with Bryce Young.

200. Levi Bell, DE, 5'11" 271 Texas State
Thick, hard-nosed sleeper prospect who may go undrafted but for mock draft sake threw him in here to talk about a player new to most here. PFF graded him out 92.4% moves outside in NFL, super high effort motor, special teams player right away will work himself into 53 man roster and have an impact.

202. McCelndon Curtis, 6'6" 328 OT/OG, Chattanooga State
Great personality and work ethic adds depth to OL most likely future swing tackle to develop.


230. Chris Rodriques, RB, 6'0" 220 Kentucky
Solid frame, bruising RB who runs with violence & purpose like Dameon Pierce. Don't mind this pick late at all.

259. Derick Parish, DE, 6'1" 241 Houston
Speed edge rusher to develop, could even be rotated into backfield as blocking FB. Another special teams player, who helps Texan roster in all phases of the game.

player measurements copied off PFF 2023 Draft Guide

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Caserio burns #33 to trade picks with Carolina and I will be pissed. That’s a flat out stupid move and neither Young nor Stroud is worth that kind of BS.
 
I’d make the trade for 1.1 for 1.2 and 2.33. I’d likely draw the line at 1.12 although I might even consider that. My issue is I think Carolina isn’t dumb. The best QB in this draft by a considerable margin is Bryce Young. Texans know it. So does Frank Reich and company.

we shall see if you are onto something within 49 hours now, but I only give it maybe 20% chance at best and that is probably being generous.
 
Hervoyel said:
Caserio burns #33 to trade picks with Carolina and I will be pissed. That’s a flat out stupid move and neither Young nor Stroud is worth that kind of BS.
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I don’t have a problem with the value. It’s worth it if that’s your guy.

My thing is if the team ahead of you will trade with you, chances are they don’t want the guy you want.
 
This is a Texan Mock Draft that I was dreading to post, but it’s been a tradition since 2002. Expected, would rub a lot of Texan fans, whom I admire, wrong way but it accomplishes, what I believe is in best interest for all, long suffering fans & our ownership who have endured.

I have the Texans taking QB #2. CJ Stroud. That is the Texan selection. Whether this is a game of chicken or not, see who blinks first, one way or another, Texans acquire their franchise QB. I’m not comfortable with the other QB options (Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Hendon Hooker) or of elite pass rushers, Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson, neither better than Kayvon Thibodeaux whom they passed on in last years draft #3.

My hope is reason prevails, discussions in place, that transfer picks and capital for fair compensation. If they still want pick #12 it’s a bad look and doubt Caserio is willing. I’m praying, Nick holds the cards, just like he did in shopping DeShaun Watson, to get best possible deal, which #33 sounds pretty damn reasonable to me. But we will see in about 48 hrs.

:logo:
 
Done that way to explain compensation, why Texans don’t have 33rd selection. Know it’s confusing but had to trick the system to reflect preferred picks. Also demonstrates gap between 12th selection & #65. Explained in opening if Texans retain pick #33 and trade doesn’t happen my selection would be Emmanuel Forbes, CB. Otherwise Stroud is there, all day #2 but that is just consensus.
 
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Anyone else as confused as me? I thought he was using 33 to grab 1 for Bryce, now he’s saying it’s CJ. Maybe beerlover had one to many cold ones.
 
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Porky said:
Anyone else as confused as me? I thought he was using 33 to grab 1 for Bryce, now he’s saying it’s CJ. Maybe beerlover had one to many cold ones.
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From the top-
Honestly feel there will be a draft and trade in place on draft day and Texans wind up with Bryce Young, Panthers get Texans 1st pick of the 2nd round, so you will not find that pick here.
 
beerlover said:
From the top-
Honestly feel there will be a draft and trade in place on draft day and Texans wind up with Bryce Young, Panthers get Texans 1st pick of the 2nd round, so you will not find that pick here.
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What's confusing is your mock on top of the PFF one that has Stroud at #2 and still no #33
 
thunderkyss said:
I don’t have a problem with the value. It’s worth it if that’s your guy.

My thing is if the team ahead of you will trade with you, chances are they don’t want the guy you want.
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I see what you're saying but there's "value" and then there's "What do you need?" and to my eyes what the Texans need is the player they take at 2nd overall, then the guy at 12, and finally the one at 33. That's three players all of whom should be fairly productive (unless Nick see some guy coming off a major injury who "once" had a season that blew his mind in the video room of course...). The Texans need talent and while the draft pick value might align I don't think either one of those QB's (Young or Stroud) is worth getting one less potential impact player in the deal. I have no problem with trades but I'm trading down not up and I'm adding picks not giving them up.

The Texans might. God only knows what the friggin Texans are thinking at any given time..
 
In all honesty….I don’t think Ryans has Young rated higher than Anderson, therefore moving up at the expense of additional draft capital to get him when Anderson would fall in their lap at 2 or at 3 and 4 if they were to trade back. Not to mention, Caserio and Ryans would be collecting “additional” draft capital in this scenario.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
In all honesty….I don’t think Ryans has Young rated higher than Anderson, therefore moving up at the expense of additional draft capital to get him when Anderson would fall in their lap at 2 or at 3 and 4 if they were to trade back. Not to mention, Caserio and Ryans would be collecting “additional” draft capital in this scenario.
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That’s the trap, which can be convincing enough to veer off your best most valuable commodity, the franchise QB. Nothing else comes close.

Last thing I want is to give up high ceiling young player potential or even quality depth, but Texans have only themselves to blame for beating Indy last game, costing 1st overall selection. So this is the reality. Two franchise QB’s sitting there, just take the one available. I’m fine with that, but where there’s smoke there’s fire.

In a weird, draft scenario, the trade could even be executed after day one. They have all night & day to mull things over. Who is on the board Friday night when 2nd day of draft begins? I’m not sure what the “trigger” could be, bpa, plus & minuses for both QB’s, but it’s not over until it’s over and the fat person sings.
 
like Anderson but like Mario Williams not enough for me to pass on a franchise QB. Of course, in 2006 there wasn’t a true franchise QB. Or they couldn’t trade down, add more draft capital, and select a QB prospect they were willing to invest time to develop. Thought they could save that old car.

we’ve seen what Slowik did with Brock Purdy. Elite Processor, just enough athleticism to execute can be a successful pathway. But if you have a shot @ much higher graded version, who could run a similar offense (need more offensive weapons & center) think that’s the ticket.

reason why Bryce is higher on Texan board than Stroud. It’s not like Stroud can’t process however, which is what all this S2 misinformation noise is all about. Evidently Texans don’t subscribe to this paid service (Casero call). Is unfair to Bryce or Stroud to comp them to Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers, but stylistically, yes.
 
One day later, checked into PFF simulator and stopped me in my tracks when looking for Emmanuel @ #33, had to scroll down, way down to #15 Seahawks had traded up with Jets, and took Forbes. That would make a sick secondary. Drafting traits. No injuries despite “rail thin frame”. Also another thin corner, Devon Witherspoon #6 overall to Detroit, who in earlier mock simulators was able to draft for Texans #12. Positional value settings can really change a draft board.
 
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Last one on Forbes (so people better understand my selection, although suddenly less likely as he’s climbing up boards) just came out today, The Athletic final mock draft. Have Houston taking Stroud #2 and Njigba #12.


16. Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
This is a brutal scenario with offensive linemen going back-to-back-to-back in front of Washington. Signing free agents Andrew Wylie and Nick Gates helps with depth, but the group lacks upside. We tried trading down because O-line and cornerback options exist later in the first, but with no luck. So we considered RB Bijan Robinson and really considered Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness, knowing 2024 uncertainty exists with Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

There are solid DB options here, though, including safety/slot CB Brian Branch … and Forbes, a rail-thin playmaker who holds the FBS record with six interceptions returned for touchdowns. I would have preferred to make this choice a few slots lower, which is something real-life general managers will be saying this year. — Ben Standig
 
I was willing to gifting picks to move up one spot just to get Bryce Young. Didn’t feel they would gift enough required, after gifting da Bears a whole bunch of draft capital but to turn around and top that gifting to move back-up for Will Anderson really solidified Nick Caserio as the all-time gifter!

Of course, love the player, but they should have had a draft deal done before the draft started. No leverage and Arizona made them way overpay. Next years first is simply too much plus basically two additional 1sts this year. But I digress….

Still can recover with picks left in this mock. Might throw in Wypler for Tippman, if he’s off the board. But receiver/tight end, some weapons for Stroud is highly suggested. Do have one DT here who I feel DeMeco would covet in Zacch Pickens - be happy with any combination of these.
 
Too much cuffing of draft picks…& that’s always the problem with guys like u who study this stuff too much; overanalysis & overvaluing of the worth of draft picks The value isnt in the pick itself..its in what that pick brings in..& i think u guys forget that sometimes.
 
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JB said:
They didn't way overpay and they didn't give up 2 firsts this year
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You are right on technicality, but that’s still the 32nd overall selection and Joey Porter Jr. still a 1st round graded player.

Im done. Like SteelbTexan and the dodo bird. Waste of time. Thunderkyss posted excellent post covering the reality of being actually responsible, everything that goes into business of making living overseeing Football Operations in the NFL. I get that, I’m only interested in scouting aspect. They have total access so they know more, better informed so should make better evaluations.

Everybody views prospects differently yet there is a general consensus that clarifies draft prospects values. Always going to be outliers, but in general, everyone winds up with similar prospect values, so when it comes to addressing needs, knowing other teams needs, they can move either up or down to address own needs while maximizing value.

Credit Texans for sticking to own draft board and aggressively trading up to get them. I would rather give up value to be sure you get your guy, than sitting on your hands and watch them come off the board. That describes a very proactive, decisive consensus war room. Something we all must applaud, “it’s about time” and beginning of a new era.
 
beerlover said:
You are right on technicality, but that’s still the 32nd overall selection and Joey Porter Jr. still a 1st round graded player.
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I was talking of the other of your first round picks... it was a swap of picks not giving one up. They had 2,12,33 and selected 2,3. That is a net of -1 not -2
 
Ok, put myself into Texan (Caserio) thought process of compensation required to move up 9 picks to #3. I was spot on from feeling Texans would be aggressive, sorting out top of board, using 12th & 33rd. That is same cost as moving up one spot for #1 but Caserio threw in next years 1st and 3rd to acquire Will Anderson Junior. 🤔.

Know this, he doesn’t have to worry about Will Anderson chasing down CJ Stroud now. What is that 1st & 3rd going to be after next season? This will be asked in threads after threads. This is what Caserio/DeMeco/Ownership had to project on the spot. With QB addressed and elite edge/playmaker they must feel this team in AFC South will be competitive enough for playoffs. Yeah, playoffs, which reduces value of return both 1st & 3rd to late mid round. If you believe, DeMeco is very positive, it makes more sense and you have your foundation. This is what must have been consensus in the Texan war room.

:logo:
 
beerlover said:
Ok, put myself into Texan (Caserio) thought process of compensation required to move up 9 picks to #3. I was spot on from feeling Texans would be aggressive, sorting out top of board, using 12th & 33rd. That is same cost as moving up one spot for #1 but Caserio threw in next years 1st and 3rd to acquire Will Anderson Junior. 🤔.

Know this, he doesn’t have to worry about Will Anderson chasing down CJ Stroud now. What is that 1st & 3rd going to be after next season? This will be asked in threads after threads. This is what Caserio/DeMeco/Ownership had to project on the spot. With QB addressed and elite edge/playmaker they must feel this team in AFC South will be competitive enough for playoffs. Yeah, playoffs, which reduces value of return both 1st & 3rd to late mid round. If you believe, DeMeco is very positive, it makes more sense and you have your foundation. This is what must have been consensus in the Texan war room.

:logo:
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Are you still thinking he paid too much?
 
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