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Another "Luck"y season ahead?

Well, Luck passed for 4300 yards. So is that lucky or is he good? Because if you pass for 4000 yards, you're a notch above the other QBs, according to some around here. And if you have a upper echelon QB, the results of the season doesn't revolve quite as much around luck.
 
Luck is a good QB, hell, I'd love to have him on the Texans. But that doesn't make the Colts a playoff team just 'cause they have a good QB. The Colts will not make a run for the division this year, they'll be battling the Titans for 2nd place and a wild card spot.
 
eriadoc said:
Well, Luck passed for 4300 yards. So is that lucky or is he good? Because if you pass for 4000 yards, you're a notch above the other QBs, according to some around here. And if you have a upper echelon QB, the results of the season doesn't revolve quite as much around luck.
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He's certainly good, but he was also lucky last season, and the Colts overachieved as a team. Read somewhere that Luck had more dropped interceptions than any other QB. Also, according to Football Outsiders metrics they were probably closer to an 6-10 team in quality of play than to 11-5. Some people like FO, some people don't, so take that FWIW.

From FO 2013 Almanac:

Of course, storybook seasons are not always what they seem on the surface. On a play-by-play basis, the Colts weren’t even close to postseason quality. Over the course of the season, they were outscored by 30 points and had a turnover margin of minus-12. Even in the midst of #chuckstrong, they somehow allowed Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets to reach the end zone five times in a 35-9 loss. (We repeat: Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets.) Another key part of the Colts’ suc- cessful season was their relatively soft schedule, the easiest in the league with an average opponent DVOA of -7.4%. No team has the luxury of picking and choosing its own schedule, but in retrospect their storybook season was clearly built on narrow wins over teams well out of playoff contention. The Colts posted a negative single-game DVOA in eight of their final 13 games, including a -48.5% DVOA in an overtime win over the Tennessee Titans. Based on the Colts’ DVOA both overall and in specific situations, our estimated wins metric projected the Colts to win just 6.2 games; that’s the largest gap between wins and estimated wins in the history of DVOA (Table 1). Despite their 11-5 record and playoff appearance, the Colts were still a work in progress and needed to address certain key positions in the offseason to be considered playoff contenders in 2013.
Click to expand...
 
eriadoc said:
Well, Luck passed for 4300 yards. So is that lucky or is he good? Because if you pass for 4000 yards, you're a notch above the other QBs, according to some around here. And if you have a upper echelon QB, the results of the season doesn't revolve quite as much around luck.
Click to expand...

Lets see him do it again. That will tell us a lot.

More QBs did not throw for 4000 yards in 2012, than did.


But Luck looked good the other night. The kid really hasn't impressed me much since his senior year at Stanford... but he looked good.
 
paycheck71 said:
Also, according to Football Outsiders metrics they were probably closer to an 6-10 team in quality of play than to 11-5. Some people like FO, some people don't, so take that FWIW.
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What did they have as the Texans record (via metrics)? I've always been of the Bill Parcells "You are what your record says you are" school.
 
Lucky said:
What did they have as the Texans record (via metrics)? I've always been of the Bill Parcells "You are what your record says you are" school.
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That's an excellent question. I believe the "expected wins" # for Houston was 8.3 based on their stats. Follow the link below, and the second table has the "expected wins" stat for all the teams for 2012 as well as an explanations of what that stat means. You can pick another year if you want.

LINK
 
eriadoc said:
So the 4300+ yards did not impress you? It's good to see you joining the sane side of the discussion.
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C'mon, 4000 yds is not the definition of elite but it is also nothing to sneeze at. Plus barring injury in this case it would be 4 years in a row with one leading the league in passing. It isn't the be all end all discussion is over but it is valid to factor into the discussion.
 
Its like in baseball. When a team wins a high percentage of 1 run games in a season. Its not normal. Eventually things tend to even themselves out.

I really didnt mean to make it sound like Luck and the Colts have no skills, simply that they seemed to come out on top a high percentage of the time in a tight matchup.
 
Colts will be "lucky" to get to 8-8. They really did not do much to improve in the offseason.
 
eriadoc said:
So the 4300+ yards did not impress you? It's good to see you joining the sane side of the discussion.
Click to expand...


If Jake Locker were to have thrown the ball another 313 times at 6.9 yards an attempt, he would have thrown for 4,335.7 yards. Jake Locker finished with a 74.0 QBR, Luck finished with a 76.5..... they're practically the same guy.

Most QBs playing as poorly as Luck would not get the opprotunity to throw for 4300+ yards.

So in Lucks case, no 4300+ yards is not impressive.

4008 yards, with a 90.7 QBR, 64% completion percentage, & 7.4 ypc is much more impressive.

Imagine if Matt threw the ball another 83 times at 7.4 ypc, He'd have finished with 4,622 yards.

I would also bet the odds are that Matt will throw for about 4000 yards next season. I have no idea what a healthy Luck will do.
 
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