DaTruthExplodes
Anti-Homer
andre has been done as a elite receiver 2 years ago.
He's been skating by on reputation alone the past couple years.
He's been skating by on reputation alone the past couple years.
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OK, let's do a quick comparison here.
This year, so far, we have been targeting AJ on the average 6 times per game.
He caught 17 balls for 283 yards and 2 TDs in 5 games.
In 2010, in 13 games, AJ was target an average of nearly 11 times per game.
He caught 86 balls for 1,226 yards and 8 TDs
Similarly, in 2009, in 16 games, AJ was targeted nearly 11 time per game.
He caught 101 balls for 1,569 yards and 9 TDs.
From basic math, if AJ is being targeted as much as he did in 2009, he would end up having a better year than 2009.
Is it because that AJ can't no longer get open that we don't throw the ball to him as much? No. I rewatched the Jets game (with the all-22 and end-zone views) and this is what happened:
- On the first four pass attemptes by Schaub, AJ was double-teamed on all four.
- On the fifth pass - the TD to OD - AJ was also wide open underneath on a speed out route (that requires a hard jab step to the inside before cutting to the outside); AJ's cut was sharp and he could have gained at least 10 yards. But since O.D. was so side open deep, Schaub went to him for the TD.
- On the sixth pass, Cromartie did a good job not biting on AJ's double move; Schaub threw the ball away.
- On the seventh pass, AJ was ahead of the receiver on a shallow crossing route, but Schaub went to Foster because there was a LB in the middle of the field at the time AJ crossed the middle of the field.
- On the eight pass, Schaub threw an INT when he tried to fit the ball into double coverage. This is the exact post route that AJ had ran a couple of times earlier and the coverage was exactly the same (double-team.)
- On the ninth pass, AJ was open with a stop and go move as the CB gave him plenty of cushion; Schaub already went to Casey underneath for 5 yards.
- He was not on the field for the next pass.
- On the eleventh pass, AJ was triple-teamed on a similar post route. Schaub went to Casey for 7.
- On the twelfth pass, AJ was wide open on a deep in route, but Schaub had already decided to go quickly to Foster underneath for a 17-yd catch and run.
His sharp cut on this route cannot be denied. He got a ton of seperation from the DB. He left Cromartie in the dirt just as OD did on the TD pass. This one could have gone for at least twenty yards.
....
And so on and so on... You get the drift.
andre has been done as a elite receiver 2 years ago.
He's been skating by on reputation alone the past couple years.
andre has been done as a elite receiver 2 years ago.
He's been skating by on reputation alone the past couple years.
Teams are putting a safety over the top on Andre... that's why you see this:
When your TE compares favorably to most of the big WR names of the year, it tells you 1) defenses are committed to taking away AJ and 2) AJ may be less able to beat double teams.
Let's see how the rest of the year shakes out before we put Andre in mothballs.
Great write up, seriously.
Rolling coverages and double triple teaming him isn't anything new. He's dealt w this when he was our only weapon and HWSNBN was the QB yet he still made plays. Maybe before Schaub would force more balls and AJ had to make a play - but not Schaub see's someone else wide open; I don't know. All I know is that when AJ is barreling through the secondary and dragging DBs w him we are damn near unstoppable. I want THAT guy back.
I'd agree that AJ is probably not the best he has been. Still, even at his best AJ has never been a player that beats you every game. He's had games with huge numbers and catches and others with little.
What bothers me more at this point is that we are getting no production from our trio of #3 receivers. Martin, Jean, and Posey have done nothing to inspire confidence. Their lack of production pretty much puts it all on the TEs, AJ, and KW
Your argument fails on the basis that teams also put safety help over Calvin Johnson and he is #1 on your chart along with many other of the WRs on that list.
It's not the same situation. He let Meco go because we already had Brian Cushing playing at an elite level. Who's gonna fill in for AJ? Keyshawn Martin? :vincepalm:If you don't think Rick Smith has the stones to make AJ the next salary cap casualty, you must not remember what he did with Demeco Ryans.
That raises a question of how often we are in 3 or 4 WR sets, how much Schaub is targetting them, are they getting seperation etc.
There are so many factors to consider when talking about WR production.
Not to mention the fact we do like to run the ball a whole lot.
This Packers game sets up perfectly for a litmus test of sorts. Andre was rather embarrassed by Cromartie, if not in performance (haven't seen the film) at least in production.
Combine that with a (potentially) high scoring team coming in against a D that just lost Cush. I've kept myself positive by saying AJ hasn't been getting the numbers because we haven't needed him to. Now I think we need him to. If the offense is struggling, the D is getting lit up and Andre doesn't come to the rescue, we can probably call it the end of an era (not a career, calm down).
But I really think he's showing up Sunday night.
OK, let's do a quick comparison here.
This year, so far, we have been targeting AJ on the average 6 times per game.
He caught 17 balls for 283 yards and 2 TDs in 5 games.
In 2010, in 13 games, AJ was target an average of nearly 11 times per game.
He caught 86 balls for 1,226 yards and 8 TDs
Similarly, in 2009, in 16 games, AJ was targeted nearly 11 time per game.
He caught 101 balls for 1,569 yards and 9 TDs.
From basic math, if AJ is being targeted as much as he did in 2009, he would end up having a better year than 2009.
Is it because that AJ can't no longer get open that we don't throw the ball to him as much? No. I rewatched the Jets game (with the all-22 and end-zone views) and this is what happened:
- On the first four pass attemptes by Schaub, AJ was double-teamed on all four.
- On the fifth pass - the TD to OD - AJ was also wide open underneath on a speed out route (that requires a hard jab step to the inside before cutting to the outside); AJ's cut was sharp and he could have gained at least 10 yards. But since O.D. was so side open deep, Schaub went to him for the TD.
- On the sixth pass, Cromartie did a good job not biting on AJ's double move; Schaub threw the ball away.
- On the seventh pass, AJ was ahead of the receiver on a shallow crossing route, but Schaub went to Foster because there was a LB in the middle of the field at the time AJ crossed the middle of the field.
- On the eight pass, Schaub threw an INT when he tried to fit the ball into double coverage. This is the exact post route that AJ had ran a couple of times earlier and the coverage was exactly the same (double-team.)
- On the ninth pass, AJ was open with a stop and go move as the CB gave him plenty of cushion; Schaub already went to Casey underneath for 5 yards.
- He was not on the field for the next pass.
- On the eleventh pass, AJ was triple-teamed on a similar post route. Schaub went to Casey for 7.
- On the twelfth pass, AJ was wide open on a deep in route, but Schaub had already decided to go quickly to Foster underneath for a 17-yd catch and run.
His sharp cut on this route cannot be denied. He got a ton of seperation from the DB. He left Cromartie in the dirt just as OD did on the TD pass. This one could have gone for at least twenty yards.
....
And so on and so on... You get the drift.
I noticed on Schaubs int that AJ was running an out and up or 10 route. He rounded off the out part of the route so Cromartie didn't bite and was waiting on Schaub to throw the deep ball. AJ used to be able to go up and make plays even if he was covered. Not so much anymore.
I dont know why AJ is rounding his routes. It could be that his Hamstring/Groin/Knee/ankle injuries have caught up to him. Or it could've been that AJ just had a bad game.
But there's little doubt Gary has changed the way he's using AJ. Gary may be nursing AJ through the season so that he will be healthy for the playoffs. (Hopefully this is the case.)
It's not the same situation. He let Meco go because we already had Brian Cushing playing at an elite level. Who's gonna fill in for AJ? Keyshawn Martin? :vincepalm:
I'll have to go back and take a look at that. I thought he was running a 12 or a 6.
Other than that, I agree with your post. I think something's wrong with AJ and I'm not sure what. And it's eating away at his confidence.
I think Schaub forces the ball to Andre because he trusts Andre and wants to get him involved. And you never know when Andre's going to make an incredible play on a ball.
I think Gary's using him differently than in the past because of whatever issue he's dealing with.
David, read my post here:
There was one time AJ was open in the end-zone, but Schaub saw the safety getting ready to cut him off, so he went to the left side (and ended up throwing the ball away.)
On that particular play, a quick throw to AJ would have gotten the job done; however, we can't ask Schaub to be perfect.
andre has been done as a elite receiver 2 years ago.
He's been skating by on reputation alone the past couple years.
Your argument fails on the basis that teams also put safety help over Calvin Johnson and he is #1 on your chart along with many other of the WRs on that list.
Either Andre Johnson's sore/injured groin is hobbling him, or he has lost explosion for other reasons (hamstring tear and subsequent surgery, for example)...
Regardless of what the stats may or may not show, any honest view of AJ's movement this season will see he is physically quite limited. Hopefully, it is a current injury that he can recover from. Or, he will be able to rehab or strengthen whatever the lingering issues are and eventually regain most of his explosiveness. Either way, we are good. No need to lie to ourselves. He isn't right but we are 5-0 despite that.
There's no need to lie just like I didn't need to in the KW's thread.
There's nothing majorly wrong with AJ; we just haven't been targeting him as much as before, that's all.
"Lie"? (I'm suggesting that watching AJ without bias makes it clear he is not right. I was not suggesting anything else. As fans, we all struggle to not allow our biases to color what we are seeing)
Whether there is something majorly wrong or not, I do not know. What I do know is that he has not been able to accelerate and separate from defenders this season as he has in the past. I am not basing that on his targets. I am basing that on watching him run his routes... I don't doubt that we are targeting him less for reasons beyond his lack of explosiveness. If you watch him running in the Jets game without efforting to win an argument, you will clearly see that he is hobbled. Other games this year, it has clearly been the case as well. It has been noticeable a few times this year. Again, hopefully, it is the groin issue and nothing more.
Rewatch the TD against the Broncos.
The CB Tracy Porter never caugh up with AJ.
Look at the distance between them when AJ caught the ball all the way to when AJ reach the end zone.
This guy (Porter) ran a 4.37 at the combine in 2008.
Also read my break-down post for the Jets game up in this thread.
AJ made a couple of very sharp breaks (once on a speed out and another on a deep square in) and got good seperation both times.
At 31, it's fair to speculate leg injuries have robbed Johnson of the explosiveness that made him a star. That said, a decline in production doesn't necessarily signal an erosion of talent.
Johnson now finds himself in an offense that prays at the altar of the run game. Arian Foster is on pace to set an NFL record for rushes in a season. That type of dedication doesn't leave a ton of opportunity for monster receiving numbers.
NFL.com and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport -- in Houston for the Texans' Week 6 matchup against the Green Bay Packers -- asked Johnson about his slow start. Johnson explained that he was shut down by the Jets because cornerback Antonio Cromartie was allowed to play under him with help over the top.
According to Rapoport, Johnson seemed resigned to that technique working.
It opens up other options, but I still think we'll see Matt throw into double coverage on AJ sometimes and let him go up & get it. Up to now, we haven't needed to force it into him.According to Rapoport, Johnson seemed resigned to that technique working.
andre has been done as a elite receiver 2 years ago.
He's been skating by on reputation alone the past couple years.
Doc, you know that Johnson always "seemed resigned" right?According to Rapoport, Johnson seemed resigned to that technique working.[/URL]
For those who have pointed out that AJ has been thwarted by the CB playing under and the Safety playing over the top, he as been presented with this type of coverage from day one........and this never curtailed his performance. The thing that has changed is that the classic counter moves for this type of coverage which he successfully typically used............cutting sharply on an in or out to get away from being caught directly within the CB/Safety "sandwich", or turning back on an abrupt hitch or hook to get in front of the CB........has disappeared.
Yeah, but how many other times in games would Schaub force the ball to AJ on a lot more plays allowing him to out muscle and size guys up?? I watched AJ make a ton of bad ass plays in pre season and in game 1 especially in that 2nd half. I did not see any slowing down of AJ.
You guys are forgetting that we've been holding leads over every team practically and Kubes is running the ball and we're not having to throw down the field nearly as much, because Kubes is calling a much more conservative game plan to hold the lead. AJ simply isn't being targeted as much from what I've observed. As far as AJ's physical abilities and positioning to get open, I don't see any differences here. In year's past we were always having to have shootouts with teams and playing from behind, so AJ had to do a lot more.
Then I'd have to ask what happened when Cromartie intercepted the ball in front of AJ while AJ kept watching the ball which was obvious to him and everyone else that it was going to be short but didn't make any attempt to sharply stop and hook back around or go over Cromartie to try to catch or even deflect the ball. It would be hard bent to think that if he could have, he wouldn't have.
For those who have pointed out that AJ has been thwarted by the CB playing under and the Safety playing over the top, he has been presented with this type of coverage from day one........and this never curtailed his performance. The thing that has changed is that the classic counter moves for this type of coverage which he successfully typically used............cutting sharply on an in or out to get away from being caught directly within the CB/Safety "sandwich", or turning back on an abrupt hitch or hook to get in front of the CB........has disappeared.
Then I'd have to ask what happened when Cromartie intercepted the ball in front of AJ while AJ kept watching the ball which was obvious to him and everyone else that it was going to be short but didn't make any attempt to sharply stop and hook back around or go over Cromartie to try to catch or even deflect the ball. It would be hard bent to think that if he could have, he wouldn't have.
Dre is done as an elite WR. No biggie. He's still the best we have and teams know it
OK, Doc.
I've already mentioned him running the speed out and deep in routes in the Jets game with sharp cuts.
Here, I'm going to do the first half of the Dolphins game.
I will only mention certain routes that seem to be in question.
1st quarter:
11:27 AJ ran a deep out and caught the ball for 11 yards.
7:58 AJ ran an 18-yd deep comeback toward the inside (at 45%).
This is pretty much a hook/hitch type of route to beat double coverage that you were asking for.
Schaub was sacked, however.
2nd quarter:
13:53 AJ ran 23-yd deep comeback, this time, toward the side line.
Schaub was on a bootleg and couldn't set up quick enough to throw a good ball.
CB had time to react back to knock the ball away.
11:51 AJ ran a 10-yd deep in and left the CB on the ground.
However, Schaub went to OD who beat the LB right off the bat.
2:30 AJ ran a 6/7-yd quick hook.
He got separation, but Schaub was pressured and scrambled for 2.
2:03 AJ ran a 5-yd quick in.
He was also open, but Schaub went to OD right in front of him for 11.
The LB turned the wrong way.
Honestly, I don't see anything wrong with AJ.
In the Jets game, he ran more post routes to take away the double team and open it up for the other guys.
It's just different game planning.
I only hope that he doesn't suffer a groin/hamstring type of injury, that's all.
andre has been done as a elite receiver 2 years ago.
He's been skating by on reputation alone the past couple years.
I get the feeling that you feel that I'm making a case for Andre is essentially done. That is the furthest thing from what I am trying to present. He can certainly still be a very productive player on this team. But I do see some physical limitations that he is and likely will be dealing with from here on out. I will respectfully leave you to your own conclusion when you say that you don't see anything wrong with AJ. But knowing what the type of injuries he has incurred and their implications, along with what I continue to observe in general, you'll have to excuse me if I choose to believe my lying eyes.
What are you talking about GP?To me, in the jets game...there were two passes where I think Schaub expected his WR to make a bigger effort to get to a spot on the field.
One was the AJ target where Cromartie picks it off. I will maintain that I think AJ was not running as hard as Schaub might have expected AJ to, which means Schaub was leading him a bit more than he should have. Watching that play in real time, AJ looked sluggish and wasn't (IMO) running hard enough.
This is probably the pass to start the second half.Against Denver Andre broke up a pass that was almost intercepted.