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Analyzing Statistics of Top 4 QB's (Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, & Manziel)

Texan in Japan said:
WF,
Really exceptional work, appreciate the effort. Stats are fantastic, but evaluating a prospects intangibles is very important. From your research who would you take of the three?

From my perspective, I love Manziel's moxy and how he plays the game. I worry about his size and tendency to cowboy (pun intended) too much. I really want to see how he works out and interviews.

From what I've read TB seems to be the most ready to transition and run a pro-offense. I haven't seen him play much, but what I have seen looks pretty good.

I didn't think much of Bortles (only saw Baylor) because his receivers racked up some many YAC and made the plays to bring them back.

Frankly, I'm torn between JF and TB.
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To be honest I doubt the stats will change my opinion and they aren't meant to change anyone else's. I did the research out of pure curiosity. I've always maintained that Bridgewater is my favorite of the 3 because of his accuracy and his mental command on the field. The other guys do a lot of things better than Bridgewater but, in my top 2 areas for a QB, Bridgewater is clearly the leader. That's why I like him the most.
 
Rushing TD's in Red Zone

Bortles
- 6 TD's Overall
o 2 TD's when Losing
o 1 TD when Tied
o 3 TD's when Winning

Bridgewater
- 1 TD Overall
o 0 TD's when Losing
o 0 TD's when Tied
o 1 TD when Winning

Manziel
- 8 TD's Overall
o 3 TD's when Losing
o 0 TD's when Tied
o 5 TD's when Winning


Rushing TD's by Quarter

Bortles
- 6 TD's Overall
o 2 TD's in 1st Quarter
o 1 TD's in 2nd Quarter
o 2 TD's in 3rd Quarter
o 1 TD in 4th Quarter

Bridgewater
- 1 TD Overall
o 1 TD in 4th Quarter

Manziel
- 9 TD’s Overall
o 1 TD in 1st Quarter
o 2 TD’s in 2nd Quarter
o 3 TD’s in 3rd Quarter
o 3 TD’s in 4th Quarter
 
Corrosion said:
No it hasn't but then again , you factor in the level of competition .... That's an issue that could really have an impact upon his results in the NFL , throwing floaters against the scrubs is one thing , throwing floaters against the best in the world is another.

Combine that with the as yet unconfirmed small hands and this guy could be a turnover machine at the NFL level.



But .... you seem to have made up your mind , some of us haven't and are looking at all the information in front of us before making that decision.
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I'm just trying to say the touch didn't really hurt him, I don't think that's overstepping myself. When I look for a common opponent between TB, JFF, Aaron Murray, Zach Met, and even 1st round pick EJ Manuel I can find the 2012 Florida defense which is comprised of quite a bit of NFL Talent.

4 defensive players in rounds 1-4 of 2013 NFL draft with about 6 more guys expected to go in rounds 2-6 in this upcoming draft as of today. You can argue this is a solid defense that all of these teams played against.

TB and his "touch" passes fared pretty well against that stout D whereas I can't say the same for any other QB. JFF you can say had a decent game and didn't lose the game for A&M like the other QBs mentioned, but at the end of the day he didn't win the game either. Frankly other than TB and JFF, they all sucked. However, TB and his touch passes dominated and won that game on the biggest stage of all those games (up 33-10 at one point in the Sugar Bowl).

You can say I've already made up my mind and that's fine. So what if I picked my horse and back it? When people take shots at the horse I chose, if they are valid, I let em stand (size, combine will tell). If they aren't valid I shoot them down. I don't want new readers coming to this thread taking misguided hate as truth and spreading it. I will shoot down, what I view as invalid points every time.
 
What are the completion percentages and ratio's against the blitz among the 3? To me what a QB does under pressure is much more important than what he does during an unpressured play.
 
Uncle Rico said:
What are the completion percentages and ratio's against the blitz among the 3? To me what a QB does under pressure is much more important than what he does during an unpressured play.
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Rotoworld had an article on that:

db0HWPQ.jpg


http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/2014s-quarterback-conundrum
 
The last segment of our series will be the ever so popular strength of competition. I saved this one for last because it has seemingly garnered the most attention over the last few weeks.

In this segment, I have totaled up each player's performance against good competition. Games against FCS and low tier mid-majors are thrown out the window. This means that, despite only playing 2 years, Manziel has more data than the other QB's. The only games that I counted were games against BCS power conference teams and games against mid-majors with 10+ wins.

I have uploaded the spreadsheet to Google Docs. You don't need to sign-in, but the document is set to privacy. It is only view-able through this link.

2014 Draft QB Comparison - Spreadsheet (Updated)
 
WolverineFan said:
To be honest I doubt the stats will change my opinion and they aren't meant to change anyone else's. I did the research out of pure curiosity. I've always maintained that Bridgewater is my favorite of the 3 because of his accuracy and his mental command on the field. The other guys do a lot of things better than Bridgewater but, in my top 2 areas for a QB, Bridgewater is clearly the leader. That's why I like him the most.
Click to expand...

You've done a pretty damn good job of compiling all these stats .... For someone who was on the fence , the numbers situational numbers are helpful. There's a lot to like about each of the top three .... we can just forget about HWWNBM2.0 , he doesn't belong.

I do think it has helped me narrow it down from three to two .... Bridgewater & Manziel , with no clear favorite.


Rep for a job well done.
 
77% against the blitz for Teddy Ballgame is flat out ridiculous. Jaw dropping to say the least.

Any metrics on how the prospects play when injured? Heart and toughness is also a huge intangible in QB play.

I remember TB coming in as the emergency QB against Rutgers with a broken wrist and jacked up ankle and won a must win game with skill and heart. To me it says alot how he would play as a veteran of 10 years when the athleticism wears off.
 
WolverineFan said:
Damn...I knew I jumped the gun. Thanks, will try and update.
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Couple other things missing ... for three of the four , </>10win record results for Bridgewater , Bortles & Carr while you show those results for Manziel.


Still , this thread is full of great info.
 
Uncle Rico said:
77% against the blitz for Teddy Ballgame is flat out ridiculous. Jaw dropping to say the least.
Click to expand...

I'd like to see a breakdown of this Vs. BCS power conference teams and mid-majors with 10+ wins .... lets remove the patsy schedule and compare apples to apples.
 
Corrosion said:
Couple other things missing ... for three of the four , </>10win record results for Bridgewater , Bortles & Carr while you show those results for Manziel.


Still , this thread is full of great info.
Click to expand...

That split was done specifically for Manziel. While he played many more games against top competition, I thought it was interesting just how much better his numbers were against the good teams than against the elite ones.

With that said, the next (and final) spreadsheet will address that issue.
 
For the final segment of this series, I have linked another spreadsheet containing QB data. Instead of stats against good competition, this spreadsheet will only contain data on games against the best competition.

*Note that the best doesn't literally mean "the best". It's the best competition that each player faced. I wanted to take the 8-5 NC State's and 7-5 Mississippi State's out of the equation and just focus on the top teams each guy faced. Notice that, now more than ever, Manziel has a lot more exposure to this competition despite only playing 2 years.

2014 QB Comparison Spreadsheet - Elite Competition
 
Going striclty off the last spreadsheet Carr is horrible against the better teams. Bortles not that much better.

TB is a pretty consistent guy even against the top teams.

Manziels stats jump off the page at me.

How about game winning drives as a metric or "clutch factor" maybe using the last 4 minutes in a game to tabulate the stats.

Appreciate the legwork for compiling all the data.
 
Uncle Rico said:
Going striclty off the last spreadsheet Carr is horrible against the better teams. Bortles not that much better.

TB is a pretty consistent guy even against the top teams.

Manziels stats jump off the page at me.

How about game winning drives as a metric or "clutch factor" maybe using the last 4 minutes in a game to tabulate the stats.

Appreciate the legwork for compiling all the data.
Click to expand...

What I noticed while compiling the last spreadsheet....

Carr doesn't play great against top teams. Lower completion %, low yards per pass attempt, and a worse TD per pass attempt rate than against weaker competition.

Bortles numbers would be pretty good if he cut down on turnovers. I think that fits with what we see when he plays. Makes a lot of plays and produces, but tries to do too much and turns the ball over too often.

Bridgewater's numbers are pretty good. High completion % and high yards per attempt. His TD rate is slightly lower against better teams and his INT rate is higher. However, his turnover rate was the best across the board in all of the stats I compiled for this thread. What impresses me about his game is the efficiency.

Manziel naturally has the best TD rate. That was pretty much the case across the board in all of the stats. His INT rate isn't great, but it isn't worse against good competition than bad competition. I think that's just his playing style. He's a guy that will make a ton of plays, but the downside is that he will turn the ball over. His completion % and yards per attempt were a lot lower against good teams, but the numbers are still good.
 
I'm not picking here, in fact you are doing Yeoman's work. Just pointing out a consideration when analyzing all the stats, Bridgewater is a 3 year starter and Bortles and Manziel are 2 year starters.
 
Some info for every ones consideration: today is the final 4 for the NFL playoffs and only one of todays starting QBs was selected within the top 35 players taken in the year each was drafted.
 
Let me give y'all a couple of numbers,

Clowney runs a 4.46 at 274 Lbs and he's 1-1. Give me Mallett or Mettenberger/Garappolo at 2-1 and watch all of the fun JJ and Clowney have making carniage of the Colts and Luck.
 
steelbtexan said:
Let me give y'all a couple of numbers,

Clowney runs a 4.46 at 274 Lbs and he's 1-1. Give me Mallett or Mettenberger/Garappolo at 2-1 and watch all of the fun JJ and Clowney have making carniage of the Colts and Luck.
Click to expand...

That would be insane.
 
steelbtexan said:
Let me give y'all a couple of numbers,

Clowney runs a 4.46 at 274 Lbs and he's 1-1. Give me Mallett or Mettenberger/Garappolo at 2-1 and watch all of the fun JJ and Clowney have making carniage of the Colts and Luck.
Click to expand...

True. Until you have to let 1 walk due to not being able to afford 2 ridiculous contracts on the Dline. Would be interesting for a couple of years if Clowney is a hungry player vs the selfish persona being painted.
 
South team
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, Fresno State
David Fales, San Jose State
Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
****
That's the QBs for the South squad in this weeks upcoming SB game. So I hear
this Garoppolo kid had a big game at the East-West Shrine game, looking forward to seeing him and also want to see if Carr can redeem himself after that lousy bowl game performance he had.
 
Honoring Earl 34 said:
I predict it's a 4.55 with a 39 inch vertical and 22 reps on the bench .
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they're saying he is more quick twitch than Mario Williams. All Mario did was run 4.66, 40.5 vertical & lift 225 35 times @ 6070 295.

here is the thing. will he be gearing his workouts to become the 1st overall pick of Texans by dropping weight emphasizing his athletic ability to bend & play OLB position. Or does he want to play 4-3 end & add more size & power? it will be interesting process to follow for sure, will have to wait until combine to have a better idea. If he wants to be a Texan & play OLB I would like to see him drop to around 262-267 run a 4.50 or better & do at least 40" vertical. his 10 sec split should be insane, like 1.51-4 seconds (Mario ran 1.61). FYI, would be cool if they added event (sled pushing) for DL/OL to measure endurance, strength & speed. :firehair:
 
IDEXAN said:
want to see if Carr can redeem himself after that lousy bowl game performance he had.
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I think Carr's statistics Vs good teams and pressure are enough to lower his stock , at least for me. Those numbers don't lie.

I want to narrow it down to just Manziel and Bridgewater .... but hesitate to discount Bortles on a lack of arm strength. When he goes downfield , he really seems to have to load up and still comes up short at times.


The strength of competition for Bridgewater really concerns me .... He gets away with those floaters against lower competition but I cant see that holding true in the NFL where everyone is a great athlete.


I just cant make up my mind but right now , I'd have to rank them Manziel , Bridgewater , Bortles .... and that's subject to change when as more information becomes available.
 
Uncle Rico said:
True. Until you have to let 1 walk due to not being able to afford 2 ridiculous contracts on the Dline. Would be interesting for a couple of years if Clowney is a hungry player vs the selfish persona being painted.
Click to expand...

You have the $$$$ to pay 5 superstar level players 25 above avg. 10 avg players (LeGarrette Blount/Jacob Tamme types. The rest have to be draft picks and vet min type guys.

With a much better scouting dept this can be done. Look at the Broncos/Pats type teams. there roster seems to be constructed this way.
 
IDEXAN said:
Some info for every ones consideration: today is the final 4 for the NFL playoffs and only one of todays starting QBs was selected within the top 35 players taken in the year each was drafted.
Click to expand...

Well, all of the QBs would be considered a steal. So if you do a redraft all of them will go top 5, probably even top 3 - 2 of them top 1 obviously.

Late round success stories don't prove, that you don't have to take the top QB on your board. It just shows that most scouts miss players. But you still get a way better chance at success if you take the players most scouts like best.

At the draft the Texans need to look at their big board. If a QB is in the top 3, they should probably take him because a QB means so much more to a team than any other position. If not, they should look at trades and Clowney
 
IDEXAN said:
Some info for every ones consideration: today is the final 4 for the NFL playoffs and only one of todays starting QBs was selected within the top 35 players taken in the year each was drafted.
Click to expand...

Also noteworthy is that 2 of the 4 final QBs are mobile/dual threats.
 
steelbtexan said:
You have the $$$$ to pay 5 superstar level players 25 above avg. 10 avg players (LeGarrette Blount/Jacob Tamme types. The rest have to be draft picks and vet min type guys.

With a much better scouting dept this can be done. Look at the Broncos/Pats type teams. there roster seems to be constructed this way.
Click to expand...


Should they draft a QB they will have him under a reasonable contract for 4-5 years .... that would be advantageous allowing them to spend elsewhere until the time comes to pay the QB his market value.

Right now they have Schaub , Brown , Cushing , AJ , JJo and Foster making big $$$ with Watt & KJax due hefty raises. Schaub should be a goner & its entirely possible JJo is too.
 
Corrosion said:
Should they draft a QB they will have him under a reasonable contract for 4-5 years .... that would be advantageous allowing them to spend elsewhere until the time comes to pay the QB his market value.

Right now they have Schaub , Brown , Cushing , AJ , JJo and Foster making big $$$ with Watt & KJax due hefty raises. Schaub should be a goner & its entirely possible JJo is too.
Click to expand...

I don't know the cap numbers but I would cut Schaub JoJo and Foster. Trade for Mallett and draft Garappoko (Doubling down on my bet) Fill in the rest in the draft and low cost FA's on short term contracts and look forward to a brighter future spending the $$$$ saved on extending Watt. (Drafting Clowney 1-1)

Do you think Rick will have this kind of vision. Or is this even going to be within Rick's call.
 
steelbtexan said:
I don't know the cap numbers but I would cut Schaub JoJo and Foster. Trade for Mallett and draft Garappoko (Doubling down on my bet) Fill in the rest in the draft and low cost FA's on short term contracts and look forward to a brighter future spending the $$$$ saved on extending Watt. (Drafting Clowney 1-1)

Do you think Rick will have this kind of vision. Or is this even going to be within Rick's call.
Click to expand...

Cutting Schaub is a no brainer , saves significant cap space in doing so. Enough that should they draft a QB 1:1 his contract is covered by that savings and then some.

I've been over the numbers for cutting JJo several weeks back and tho I cant recall the exact numbers , it isn't going to save enough $ to justify the cut. It'll cost you more to replace him with a marginal talent / contract than you are going to save by cutting him , unless you replace him with a draft pick.
Tho it does free up $$ in future seasons. But .... we have McNair telling us this is a quick fix , just need a couple players and we're contenders again. (I Don't Buy It!) I get the idea that JJo will stick around thru this season. Cutting him after this year costs next to nothing. Cutting him now costs big $ and creates another gaping hole on the roster ...

Foster ... If healthy is one of the top 3 backs in the league. Just not sure if he'll ever be healthy again. I haven't been over the numbers to see what the consequences are of cutting him .... but I'd wager there is a hefty amount of dead money. Add to that the fact that Tate is a goner and we have nothing else at the position ... Cant see him being cut (Pending his health).


As for Mallett , I haven't seen enough of him to form an opinion. He does have a hell of an arm .... but that's all I can glean from his play with the Patriots.

Jimmy Garoppolo is likely a 2nd rounder , maybe even goes in the first if he has a strong combine.
Rumor was a 2nd rounder for Mallett .... don't see getting both as they require the same asset to acquire.

Clowney .... I wouldn't touch .... Sure he's a dynamic talent but the injury and motivation issues along with the poor production last season scare me away (3 sacks :shocked) , especially @ 1:1.
 
What is going on here? We have like 12 threads to spout rhetoric and viewpoints about these issues. Why is it trailing over to here?

We really need to clean this up.

This is a big 3 (rookie QB) statistical comparison thread. Not ANOTHER venue for speaking about Clowney, salary cap, and lesser QBs some are convinced are the real deal and whatever else this is about to deviate into.

Great job Wolverine on the hard work BTW.

Corrosion said:
I've been over the numbers for cutting JJo several weeks back and tho I cant recall the exact numbers , it isn't going to save enough $ to justify the cut. It'll cost you more to replace him with a marginal talent / contract than you are going to save by cutting him , unless you replace him with a draft pick.
Click to expand...

I agree with this though, lol. A HIGH draft pick, don't forget that either.
 
Corrosion said:
You've done a pretty damn good job of compiling all these stats .... For someone who was on the fence , the numbers situational numbers are helpful. There's a lot to like about each of the top three .... we can just forget about HWWNBM2.0 , he doesn't belong.

I do think it has helped me narrow it down from three to two .... Bridgewater & Manziel , with no clear favorite.


Rep for a job well done.
Click to expand...

I'm sold on TB as the best of the bunch, but I'm not sold on the group.
 
This is really good stuff, Wolverine. Bravo!

Only thing I'd like to add is that you simply can't ignore Manziel's porous defense when evaluating his interceptions. No lead was ever safe for him and thus the pressure was always on for him to score basically every single time he had the ball. He simply couldn't count on his defense to stop anyone. To ignore that in his evaluation, especially given the talent he was playing against, would be foolhardy.

Once again though, awesome read! I really enjoyed it. Yes, I lean towards us drafting Manziel and think he is a once in a generation talent with not only his passing and running abilities but more importantly the leadership he brings. That said though, everything I have read on Bridgewater has been impressive. His ability against the blitz and the pro-style offense he has had to run are all big points in his favor. I truly wouldn't be disappointed if we drafted either guy.
 
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