Keep Texans Talk Google Ad Free!
Venmo Tip Jar | Paypal Tip Jar
Thanks for your support! 🍺😎👍

Analyzing Statistics of Top 4 QB's (Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, & Manziel)

WolverineFan

WolverineFan

Hall of Fame
For the past week or so, I have been trying to compare each of the top QB’s in this class. My research is inclusive to, what seems to be, the consensus top 4 QB’s in this draft class (Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Johnny Manziel). I'll jump right out and say that I, personally, don't put Carr in that group but the media seems to have him pegged as the other 1st round guy so I added him.

While digging through each QB, I went through a bunch of stats and found some pretty interesting ones for each player. I plan to go through the ones that stood out to me the most. I will note ahead of time that my results for the players would make for an excruciatingly long post. Therefore, I will break each one up to make it easier to follow and to quote (if you wish to reply). Replies are welcome because, after all, I did all of this in the name of debate and wish to hear your opinions on the info and on each QB.

I plan to continue working on this for a little while longer. This will probably end up being a 4 or 5 part series. If the first few are popular then I will continue adding the others as I go on. With that said, here we go……
 
Interesting Stat for Derek Carr: INT rate by half
- Carr threw a much higher percentage of INT’s in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.

Stats:
o Bortles
 7 INT’s on 226 1st half attempts (1 INT every 32.3 passes)
 2 INT’s on 156 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 78 passes)
 In 2013 – 9 INT’s on 382 attempts (1 INT every 42.4 passes)

o Bridgewater
 3 INT’s on 231 1st half attempts (1 INT every 77 passes)
 1 INT on 196 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 196 passes)
 In 2013 – 4 INT’s on 427 attempts (1 INT every 106.8 passes)

o Carr
 2 INT’s on 389 1st half attempts (1 INT every 194.5 passes)
 6 INT’s on 270 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 45 passes)
 In 2013 – 8 INT’s on 659 attempts (1 INT every 82.4 passes)

o Manziel
 7 INT’s on 264 1st half attempts (1 INT every 37.7 passes)
 6 INT’s on 165 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 27.5 passes)
 In 2013 – 13 INT’s on 429 attempts (1 INT every 33 passes)

Findings:
- Carr had an astronomically higher INT rate in the 2nd half than in the 1st half, that’s what stood out to me the most during this section.
- Bortles had the worst INT rate in the 1st half, but the 2nd best INT rate in the 2nd half.
- Bridgewater had the best INT rate in the 2nd half and overall.
- Manziel had the worst INT rate in the 2nd half and overall.

- Bortles and Bridgewater both had much better INT rates in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.
- Manziel and Carr both had worse INT rates in the 2nd half than in the 1st half, although Manziel’s was just a slight difference while Carr’s was significant.


*These stats do not take SOS into effect. They are just INT rates on the season as a whole or splits by half. They are pure numbers and do not take competition into effect.


The following is the average defensive rank faced by each QB. Note: I did not account for FCS teams (UCF was the only team not to play an FCS opponent).

Bortles – faced average defense rank of 53.2
Bridgewater – faced average defense rank of 62.5
Carr – faced average defense rank of 84.1
Manziel – faced average defense rank of 52.8


- Carr played the easiest competition by far. I think we all were aware of that beforehand. Surprisingly, Manziel and Bortles played against pretty much the same defensive rank, which was tougher than Carr’s by a mile (again, no surprise). Bridgewater was somewhere in between, but closer to Manziel and Bortles than Carr. I give Manziel the edge in toughest competition because, despite Bortles facing an average rank that is almost matching, Manziel plays against better athletes in the SEC.
 
Here is my take on Carr...

Carr throws a pretty low amount of INT’s per pass attempt (1 INT every 82.4 pass attempts). However, this can be deceiving because (as we saw in the Rotoworld columns earlier this week) 33% of his attempts are screen passes and 26% of his passes are inside of 5 yards. This means that almost 60% of his pass attempts travel less than 5 yards in the air. Keep in mind that he also played the weakest competition of the 4 QB’s by far. I think the style of offense, being a QB friendly system requiring easy throws, and the fact that he did not play a tough schedule is the reason for his excellent INT rate.

IMO, the reason for the rise in INT’s in the 2nd half is because that style of offense is not always sustainable throughout a game. Sometimes you play a good defense or you need to score quickly and you cannot afford to march down the field with short passes. I think his rise in INT’s has to do with him having to push the ball down the field later in close games and, seeing as how the majority of his passes are extremely short, he is either not used to making these throws or just not as comfortable throwing them. I think the stats point this out with his average intermediate accuracy (64%) and below average deep accuracy (44%), again per Rotoworld. I think it also has a lot to do with his accuracy under pressure (50% against pressure compared to 80% against no pressure, per Rotoworld). When he has to stand in the pocket and scan the field, instead of throwing a bubble screen or slant route, the pass rush has a better chance of getting there. He is obviously much more comfortable getting the ball out quickly.

He seems to be a guy who will complete the short passes the offense requires of him, but when the stakes raise and the pressure amps up he is not comfortable at all. Again, his INT rate isn’t awful by any means, but I find it noteworthy that it is noticeably worse in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.
 
My take on Bridgewater...

Bridgewater throws an exceptionally low amount of INT’s overall (1 INT every 106.8 pass attempts). Keep in mind that he does this against somewhat weak competition (average defense rank of 62.5). Nowhere near as weak as Carr’s competition (avg. rank of 84.1), but not quite the same strength as Bortles (53.2) or Manziel (52.8). However the fact that he does this, while playing in a pro-style offense, is impressive to me. He is not lining up in shotgun every play and getting the call from the sidelines. He isn’t relying on his coaches to make all of his pre-snap reads and adjustments for him. He does all of this himself. His OC calls multiple plays in the huddle and, after the offense lines up, Bridgewater is in charge of reading the defense and getting the offense in the right play. He then has to make adjustments if there are any that need to be made and make pre-snap reads on coverages and protection schemes. He does all of this before the snap by himself. That’s NFL-level QB work. Rarely does a college QB have that much command of the offense.

Not only that, but once he does all of this, he still has to run the play. Most of these plays are 3,5, or 7-step drops from under-center (just like the NFL) and he is making full field reads on his progressions, in contrast to focusing on halves or floods like many spread systems. I think a few reasons for his INT’s being so low are…

1) He obviously works on taking care of the ball.
2) He doesn’t play against a ton of great defenses.
3) His team is probably leading fairly often in the 2nd half, so he doesn’t have to risk turning the ball over.

I think, when it comes to Bridgewater's production, level of competition is probably the only knock on him. He has torn up good defenses and bad defenses, but there is no way of knowing if he can do that on a consistent basis because he's never had to. With that said, it is still pretty impressive that he rarely turns the ball over, especially late in games.
 
WolverineFan said:
I'll jump right out and say that I, personally, don't put Carr in that group but the media seems to have him pegged as the other 1st round guy so I added him.
Click to expand...

If you think you're smarter than the media very high probability to you are. Make your own mistakes, not the medias. As a result you'll be right more often.
 
My take on Bortles...

Bortles throws INT’s at a much higher rate than Carr or Bridgewater overall. However, he also plays a tougher schedule than Bridgewater and a much tougher schedule than Carr. He had the highest rate of INT’s in the 1st half, but his INT rate drops way down in the 2nd half. I take from this that his team is usually ahead in the 2nd half (significantly more pass attempts in the 1st half) but also that he takes better care of the ball late in the game. Like with Bridgewater, this is huge positive. Being able to keep possession with a lead is very important. This is a big change from last year and earlier this year when Bortles lost some games with late turnovers. That’s a sign that his game is starting to mature.

You saw in the Baylor game that he struggled out of the gate and turned the ball over early, but came right back and scored TD’s on the next 2 possessions and was money in the 2nd half. You never like a guy to turn the ball over, but you definitely like a guy who gets stronger as the game goes on. Bortles ability to deliver late in games is clutch.
 
My take on Manziel...

Manziel had the highest rate of INT’s overall and the highest rate in the 2nd half. He also had the 2nd highest INT rate in the 1st half. I think a lot of this can be explained easily. Most of his INT’s came against good competition (11 of his 13 INT’s were in SEC play) and he also tends to make risky throws because of his aggressive and carefree playing style. Many of his 2nd half INT’s were thrown with the lead. That’s not a good trait to have. There is no reason to be so risky with the ball when you have a lead, but that’s the way Manziel plays. One of the best things about him is also one of the worst; he never gives up on a play.

He seemed to mature a lot this year as a player. He ran less and made more of an effort to stay in the pocket and make throws. However, he is still way too liberal with the ball. He needs it drilled into his head that playing by the seat of your pants is not always the best move. Sometimes, you need to know when a play is dead and move on to the next one. He’s the most exciting QB in the draft, and yet, also the most frustrating.
 
Its such a coin flip between TB, JF and BB for me. hopefully this series of work your going to do helps formulate a more concrete opinion for me, nice work so far.
 
WolverineFan said:
Carr...He seems to be a guy who will complete the short passes the offense requires of him, but when the stakes raise and the pressure amps up he is not comfortable at all...
Click to expand...

Geez who does that remind you of? :toropalm:

Is he related to any former Houston QBs?
 
The problem with analysis like this is that inevitably this thread is going to turn into all the posters playing favorites and using specific stats to help their arguments while ignoring others.

Having said that, this is great stuff so far and you should definitely continue.
 
For the next part in the series, we will be talking about TD:INT rates when winning, tied, or trailing. By this, of course, I mean how many TD's & INT's did a guy throw when his team was losing compared to when his team was winning.

Because of the length, I will break up each post individually to keep things clean.
 
Blake Bortles

- Overall: 25 TD’s & 9 INT’s on 382 Pass Attempts
o 1 TD every 15.3 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 42.4 Pass Attempts

- When Losing: 10 TD’s & 3 INT’s (139 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 13.9 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 46.3 Pass Attempts

- When Tied: 3 TD’s and 2 INT’s (59 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 19.7 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 29.5 Pass Attempts

- When Winning: 12 TD’s and 4 INT’s (184 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 15.3 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 46 Pass Attempts


*The first thing that I notice is that Bortles numbers seem to be mostly consistent whether his team is winning or losing. He throws TD’s at a slightly better percentage when losing. He also throws INT’s at a higher percentage when tied. The numbers say that he tends to play slightly better when winning or losing than when tied, but he only threw 59 passes this year when tied so I wouldn’t put much stock in that decline. Bortles led an unsuccessful 4th quarter comeback against South Carolina (2 4th quarter TD’s). However, his INT in the 4th quarter really hurt their chances of coming back. He also led 4th quarter comebacks against Louisville, Temple, and South Florida; throwing the winning score in all 3 games.

*I think it is of note that both of his 2nd half INT’s this year came late in the 4th quarter in close games (South Carolina & South Florida). He pulled out the victory in one of those games. I called him clutch in the last segment, and his four 4th quarter comebacks (3 successful) prove that out. He did have some not clutch INT's in a few of those situations though.


*His overall “TD per Pass Attempt” percentage is the lowest of all 4 QB’s (15.3 attempts per TD). This is not all that surprising because UCF was the most run heavy team of all 4 teams, throwing the ball just 47% of the time. The TD stats align though with 48% of UCF’s offensive TD’s coming from the passing game.
 
I'm with you , I don't think Carr belongs in the conversation - His #'s against the blitz are .... not appealing.
 
Teddy Bridgewater

- Overall: 27 TD’s & 4 INT’s on 395 Pass Attempts
o 1 TD every 14.6 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 98.8 Pass Attempts

- When Losing: 2 TD’s & 0 INT’s (38 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 19 Pass Attempts
o 0 INT’s

- When Tied: 8 TD’s & 0 INT’s (65 Pass attempts)
o 1 TD every 8.1 Pass Attempts
o 0 INT’s

- When Winning: 17 TD’s & 4 INT’s (292 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 17.2 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 73 Pass Attempts


*What immediately jumps out to me is that Bridgewater threw 0 INT’s when his team was losing or tied. I think that falls in line with the belief that he is great about taking care of the ball. He did throw 4 INT’s when leading, but his rate of 79.8 attempts per INT when leading was the highest of all QB’s. This guy takes care of the ball. He had the worst TD rate of all the QB’s when trailing, however he only threw 38 passes while losing all year. This was odd so I dug deeper. What I found was that Louisville only trailed for 35 minutes this entire season. And 20 of those minutes were in one game (Cincinnati). Louisville only faced deficits against 4 of their 13 opponents this year. However, Bridgewater was able to win all of those games except one (UCF). In the UCF game he led a drive to take the lead with 4 minutes left in the game. However, UCF scored with 23 seconds left to win the game. Despite the fact that he has hardly any experience playing from behind, I think Bridgewater has proven that he can do it. With that said, I think we all would prefer a QB have much more of that experience than he seems to have. Bridgewater played with a lead a lot. However, he was also great about protecting a lead so take that for what you will.


*His overall “TD per pass attempt” rate was the 2nd lowest of the 4 QB’s. However, his INT rate is better than all 4 QB’s in all phases. Louisville was the 2nd most run heavy team of the 4, throwing the ball 49% of the time. However, the passing game accounted for a shocking 65% of the offensive TD’s, a much bigger split than any of the other 4 teams.
 
Last edited:
Derek Carr

- Overall: 50 TD’s & 8 INT’s on 659 Pass Attempts
o 1 TD every 13.2 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 82.4 Pass Attempts

- When Losing: 16 TD’s & 3 INT’s (195 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 12.2 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 65 Pass Attempts

- When Tied: 8 TD’s & 0 INT’s (107 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 13.4 Pass Attempts
o 0 INT’s

- When Winning: 26 TD’s & 5 INT’s (357 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 13.7 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 71.4 Pass Attempts


*The first thing I notice about Carr’s numbers is that there is not a big difference in his INT rate whether his team is winning or losing. This is in contrast to my last segment where I theorized that, because of his higher rate of turnovers in the 2nd half, Carr seemed to struggle when playing in close games. That doesn’t appear to be the case. There doesn’t seem to be a big disparity in his numbers regardless of the situation. Carr led a 4th quarter comeback against Rutgers and won the game in OT. Fresno also defeated San Diego State in OT, but that’s because the defense blew a 4th quarter lead. Interesting note, Carr threw 1 more TD while leading than Bortles threw all season. I don’t think that means anything for either guy, just thought it was interesting.

*Carr had the 2nd best overall “TD per pass attempt” rate of the 4 QB’s, although Bridgewater trailed him closely. Fresno State threw the ball 62% of the time, which was the highest of any of the 4 teams by far. The passing game accounted for 70% of the offensive TD’s, which was also the most of all 4 teams. Also, Carr's 659 pass attempts are 230 more than the next guy (Manziel - 429 attempts).
 
Johnny Manziel

- Overall: 34 TD’s & 13 INT’s on 388 Pass Attempts
o 1 TD every 11.4 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 29.8 Pass Attempts

- When Losing: 11 TD’s & 3 INT’s (126 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 11.5 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 42 Pass Attempts

- When Tied: 8 TD’s & 4 INT’s (81 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 10.1 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 20.3 Pass Attempts

- When Winning: 15 TD’s & 6 INT’s (181 Pass Attempts)
o 1 TD every 12.1 Pass Attempts
o 1 INT every 30.2 Pass Attempts


*First thing I notice about Manziel is the rates. He has the best TD rate in every category except “when tied” (2nd behind Bridgewater), but he also the worst INT rate in every category. Again, while interesting, I’m not surprised. As I said last segment, his playing style leads to tons of production as well as turnovers. I think you see that with his high number of INT's when playing with a lead. He led a furious 4th quarter comeback against Alabama with three 4th quarter TD passes. However, his 2 INT’s in that game (one returned for a TD) were a big part of why they were in a big hole to begin with. Still though, A&M faced a huge deficit and made it a game on the back of Manziel. He also led a huge 2nd half comeback in a win over Duke. For all of his production, only 3 of this passing TD’s came in games where A&M had more than a two-score lead. This is the fewest of all 4 QB’s by far. Because of their defense, A&M needed every TD this guy could give them.


*Manziel had the best overall “TD per pass attempt” rate of the 4 QB’s. He also had the worst INT rate in all phases. Texas A&M threw the ball 51% of the time. The passing game accounted for 55% of the offensive TD’s, which is in line with those numbers.
 
Last edited:
Good work man, enjoyable read. If you want to save yourself some time, you can probably forego the Derek Carr analysis. I haven't seen anyone on this forum advocating him. Even the trade-down and 2nd round QB guys are giving names like Mettenberger, Murray and McCarron. Nobody wants to touch Carr, and I don't blame them. I think his "1st round talent" label is completely media driven, and has no basis in reality. He's a career backup IMO, and I would much rather get someone else at 2-1 or 3-1 if we were to go that route.
 
Forgot to add Completion % when tied or trailing

Bortles
- 67.8% overall
- 67.2% when tied or trailing

Bridgewater
- 70.9% overall
- 67.0% when tied or trailing

Carr
- 68.7% overall
- 66.2% when tied or trailing

Manziel
- 69.8% overall
- 70.6% when tied or trailing


*Manziel is the only QB with a better completion percentage when tied or losing as his percentage increases 0.7%. Bortles suffers a small decrease in 0.6%. Bridgewater (3.9%)and Carr (2.5%) both suffer more dramatic decreases.


Best Completion % Overall
1. Bridgewater - 70.9%
2. Manziel - 69.8%
3. Carr - 68.7%
4. Bortles - 67.8%


Best Completion % when Tied or Trailing
1. Manziel - 70.6%
2. Bortles - 67.2%
2. Bridgewater - 67.0%
4. Carr - 66.2 %
 
Last edited:
The next part in the series will be discussing Red Zone performance. I will start omitting Carr since he is not a realistic option on this board. We will just go forward with the big 3.
 
Red Zone Performance

Bortles
- 60.0% completions on 55 pass attempts
- 13 TD’s & 2 INT's
o 1 TD every 4.2 attempts
o 1 INT every 27.5 attempts

Bridgewater
- 56.8% completions on 37 pass attempts
- 13 TD’s & 0 INT's
o 1 TD every 2.8 attempts
o 0 INT’s

Manziel
- 61.7% completions on 47 pass attempts
- 18 TD’s & 5 INT's
o 1 TD every 2.6 attempts
o 1 INT every 9.4 attempts

Findings:
- Bortles' INT rate is not great, but these rates usually drop in the red zone.
- Bridgewater’s completion percentage of 56.8% in the red zone is shockingly lower than his overall percentage of 70.9%. 0 red zone INT’s is impressive though.
- Manziel has the best TD rate yet again. And, yet again, the worst INT rate. That INT rate is bad.
 
Last edited:
Red Zone Splits

Bortles
- From 20-10
o 63.6% with 3 TD’s & 1 INT
- Inside the 10
o 54.5% with 10 TD’s & 1 INT

Bridgewater
- From 20-10
o 68.2% with 6 TD’s & 0 INT
- Inside the 10
o 42.9% with 7 TD’s & 0 INT

Manziel
- From 20-10
o 69.0% with 9 TD’s & 3 INT’s
- Inside the 10
o 55.0% with 9 TD’s & 2 INT’s

*Completion percentages seem normal from the 20-yard line to the 10-yard line. Bridgewater and Manziel are close to their overall average. Bortles is a little further off, but 63% is still good. Inside the 10-yard line the percentages plummet, especially Bridgewater’s. Note that Bridgewater and Manziel distribute their TD's pretty evenly while almost all of Bortles TD's come from inside the 10.
 
Last edited:
Corrosion said:
Curious who you rank their arm strength ?!
Click to expand...

None of them have elite arm strength. I group Bridgewater and Bortles pretty closely with Manziel slightly behind. A lot of people seem to think Bortles has the stronger arm but, IMO, that's because he throws a better deep ball. I think Bridgewater puts more zip on the ball. He seems to get knocked for arm strength because of the touch he puts on the ball. He can zip it just fine it seems.
 
WolverineFan said:
None of them have elite arm strength. I group Bridgewater and Bortles pretty closely with Manziel slightly behind. A lot of people seem to think Bortles has the stronger arm but, IMO, that's because he throws a better deep ball. I think Bridgewater puts more zip on the ball. He seems to get knocked for arm strength because of the touch he puts on the ball. He can zip it just fine it seems.
Click to expand...

To me Bortles has the weakest arm of the group .... He really has to load up to throw down field with any distance.

Bridgewater probably does have the strongest arm of the three .... But he drives me nuts throwing so many softballs , too much touch quite often.
 
WolverineFan said:
Red Zone Performance

Bortles
- 60.0% completions on 55 pass attempts
- 13 TD’s & 2 INT's
o 1 TD every 4.2 attempts
o 1 INT every 27.5 attempts

Bridgewater
- 55.8% completions on 43 pass attempts
- 16 TD’s & 0 INT's
o 1 TD every 2.7 attempts
o 0 INT’s

Manziel
- 63.3% completions on 49 pass attempts
- 20 TD’s & 5 INT's
o 1 TD every 2.5 attempts
o 1 INT every 9.8 attempts

Findings:
- Bortles' INT rate is not great, but these rates usually drop in the red zone.
- Bridgewater’s completion percentage of 55.8% in the red zone is shockingly lower than his overall percentage of 71.0%. 0 red zone INT’s is impressive though.
- Manziel has the best TD rate yet again. And, yet again, the worst INT rate. That INT rate is bad.
Click to expand...

I know this is too much to ask, but I'd love to see the Red Zone info broken down between with a lead and not. And 4rth Quarter and not. I'd love to see the correlation of interceptions from the point of necessity because they were tied or trailing late and HAD to score, perhaps forcing the ball into windows which were too tight. Also, discount the passes delivered which were tipped by the receivers before being intercepted.
 
WolverineFan said:
None of them have elite arm strength. I group Bridgewater and Bortles pretty closely with Manziel slightly behind. A lot of people seem to think Bortles has the stronger arm but, IMO, that's because he throws a better deep ball. I think Bridgewater puts more zip on the ball. He seems to get knocked for arm strength because of the touch he puts on the ball. He can zip it just fine it seems.
Click to expand...

I thought Teddy in 2012 was throwing darts more often than he did in 2013. It seemed like he and/or his coaches made a conscious decision to have him use more touch on his passes in 2013. Maybe I'm the only one who thinks that, but it sure did seem like his throwing style on intermediate passes changed slightly between years.
 
Corrosion said:
To me Bortles has the weakest arm of the group .... He really has to load up to throw down field with any distance.
Click to expand...

That is true. I have seen a clip of him really having to load up to throw a 15-yard post. That said, I'm not really enamored with arm strength. Some of the best QB's in the league have "weak" arms. Accuracy and mental ability are way more important, IMO. I've seen enough of all 3 guys to know that each has a strong enough arm for the league. Past that, I don't really care.


Corrosion said:
Bridgewater probably does have the strongest arm of the three .... But he drives me nuts throwing so many softballs , too much touch quite often.
Click to expand...

He does tend to get too pretty on some of his throws and sometimes needs to just fire it in there.
 
Marshall said:
I know this is too much to ask, but I'd love to see the Red Zone info broken down between with a lead and not.
Click to expand...

Red Zone Performance with a Lead

Bortles
- 6 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 7 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 9 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance when Tied

Bortles
- 3 TD’s & 2 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 5 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 4 TD’s & 3 INT’s


Red Zone Performance when Losing

Bortles
- 4 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 1 TD & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 5 TD’s & 1 INT
 
Last edited:
WolverineFan said:
Red Zone Performance with a Lead

Bortles
- 6 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 9 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 11 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance when Tied

Bortles
- 3 TD’s & 2 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 6 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 4 TD’s & 3 INT’s


Red Zone Performance when Losing

Bortles
- 4 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 1 TD & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 5 TD’s & 1 INT
Click to expand...

Thank You.
 
Marshall said:
And 4rth Quarter and not.
Click to expand...

Red Zone Performance in 1st Quarter

Bortles
- 4 TD’s & 2 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 4 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 5 TD’s & 2 INT’s


Red Zone Performance in 2nd Quarter

Bortles
- 5 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 6 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 5 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance in 3rd Quarter

Bortles
- 2 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 0 TD & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 2 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance in 4th Quarter

Bortles
- 2 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 3 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 6 TD’s & 1 INT
 
Last edited:
Marshall said:
I'd love to see the correlation of interceptions from the point of necessity because they were tied or trailing late and HAD to score, perhaps forcing the ball into windows which were too tight.
Click to expand...

Red Zone Performance in the 4th Quarter when Tied or Trailing

Bortles
- 2 TD's & 0 INT's

Bridgewater
- 1 TD & 0 INT's

Manziel
- 3 TD's & 1 INT
 
WolverineFan said:
Red Zone Performance in 1st Quarter

Bortles
- 4 TD’s & 2 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 6 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 5 TD’s & 2 INT’s


Red Zone Performance in 2nd Quarter

Bortles
- 5 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 6 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 6 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance in 3rd Quarter

Bortles
- 2 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 1 TD & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 3 TD’s & 1 INT


Red Zone Performance in 4th Quarter

Bortles
- 2 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Bridgewater
- 3 TD’s & 0 INT’s
Manziel
- 6 TD’s & 1 INT
Click to expand...

Again, Thank You.
 
matts290 said:
Are the redzone stats only counting for passing TDs, or rushing as well?

Good stuff too man!
Click to expand...

Everything in this thread is just passing stats. I think adding rushing statistics would just cloud everything up. For the purposes of this thread, I only care about passing.

That may not seem fair when evaluating Manziel because of how dynamic he is rushing but, to be quite honest, I'm not drafting him to run the ball.
 
This next part is the difference between their performance at home versus road or neutral site games. Not really a big deal to me, but since the results were easy to come by I tallied them up anyway.

Performance at Home versus Away/Neutral

Bortles

- Home (6 games)
• 12 TD’s & 5 INT’s; 72.0% completions
o 2.0 TD per game
o 0.8 INT per game

- Away/Neutral (7 games)
• 13 TD’s & 4 INT’s; 64.7% completions
o 1.9 TD per game
o 0.6 INT per game

*Bortles' TD:INT rate doesn't change much, but his completion percentage drops 7.3% away from home.


Bridgewater

- Home (6 games)
• 14 TD’s & 2 INT’s; 73.4% completions
o 2.3 TD per game
o 0.3 INT per game

- Away/Neutral (6 games)
• 13 TD’s & 2 INT’s; 68.7% completions
o 2.2 TD per game
o 0.3 INT per game

*Bridgewater's TD:INT rate are almost identical. His completion percentage drops 4.7% away from home.


Manziel

- Home (7 games)
• 26 TD’s & 10 INT’s; 71.7% completions
o 3.7 TD per game
o 1.25 INT per game

- Away/Neutral (5 games)
• 8 TD’s & 3 TD’s; 67.8% completions
o 1.6 TD per game
o 0.6 INT per game

*Not surprisingly, Manziel throws a much higher rate of TD's at home. However, he also throws a higher rate of INT's at home as well. His completion percentage drops 3.9% on the road.
 
Last edited:
TexansSeminole said:
Great job.

Just for clarification, you ommited stats from FCS games in all breakdowns, correct?
Click to expand...

Unfortunately no I did not. I omitted them from the average defensive rank each QB faced. I didn't even think about it to be honest. Perhaps I will go back and adjust them.
 
WolverineFan said:
Everything in this thread is just passing stats. I think adding rushing statistics would just cloud everything up. For the purposes of this thread, I only care about passing.

That may not seem fair when evaluating Manziel because of how dynamic he is rushing but, to be quite honest, I'm not drafting him to run the ball.
Click to expand...

I don't think you can fairly / fully evaluate the impact these QB's have if you don't account for rushing .... Other than Carr , they are all a threat to run & the NFL is evolving with these dual threat QB's.

You have many QB's in the league who are a threat to run and several were in the playoffs ....
 
*Updated w/o stats against FCS teams, Carr excluded. Note: I still kept Manziel's INT against his FCS opponent. As far as this thread is concerned, he was 0/1 passing with 1 INT against Sam Houston State.

INT rate by half

Stats:
o Bortles
 7 INT’s on 226 1st half attempts (1 INT every 32.3 passes)
 2 INT’s on 156 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 78 passes)
 In 2013 – 9 INT’s on 382 attempts (1 INT every 42.4 passes)

o Bridgewater
 3 INT’s on 209 1st half attempts (1 INT every 69.7 passes)
 1 INT on 186 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 186 passes)
 In 2013 – 4 INT’s on 395 attempts (1 INT every 98.8 passes)

o Manziel
 7 INT’s on 232 1st half attempts (1 INT every 33.1 passes)
 6 INT’s on 156 2nd half attempts (1 INT every 26 passes)
 In 2013 – 13 INT’s on 388 attempts (1 INT every 29.8 passes)

Findings:
- Bortles had the worst INT rate in the 1st half, but the 2nd best INT rate in the 2nd half.
- Bridgewater had the best INT rate in both halves and overall.
- Manziel had the worst INT rate in the 2nd half and overall.

- Bortles and Bridgewater both had much better INT rates in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.
- Manziel had a worse INT rate in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.


*These stats do not take SOS into effect. They are just INT rates on the season as a whole or splits by half. They are pure numbers and do not take competition into effect.


The following is the average defensive rank faced by each QB in FBS games.

Manziel - faced average defense rank of 52.8
Bortles – faced average defense rank of 53.2
Bridgewater – faced average defense rank of 62.5


- Surprisingly, Manziel and Bortles played against pretty much the same defensive rank, which was moderately tougher than Bridgewater's. I give Manziel the edge in toughest competition because, despite Bortles facing an average rank that is almost matching, Manziel plays against better athletes in the SEC.
 
All posts have been updated to account for FCS teams. UCF did not play an FCS team so Bortles' stats did not need updating. Louisville and Texas A&M each played an FCS team so Bridgewater and Manziel's stats have been adjusted. Fresno State also played an FCS team, but I felt no need to adjust Carr's numbers.
 
Corrosion said:
I don't think you can fairly / fully evaluate the impact these QB's have if you don't account for rushing .... Other than Carr , they are all a threat to run & the NFL is evolving with these dual threat QB's.

You have many QB's in the league who are a threat to run and several were in the playoffs ....
Click to expand...

Very true. But I'm not sure how I would incorporate rushing into the stats that I have posted so far. I guess it would be relevant to the red zone numbers.
 
WF,
Really exceptional work, appreciate the effort. Stats are fantastic, but evaluating a prospects intangibles is very important. From your research who would you take of the three?

From my perspective, I love Manziel's moxy and how he plays the game. I worry about his size and tendency to cowboy (pun intended) too much. I really want to see how he works out and interviews.

From what I've read TB seems to be the most ready to transition and run a pro-offense. I haven't seen him play much, but what I have seen looks pretty good.

I didn't think much of Bortles (only saw Baylor) because his receivers racked up some many YAC and made the plays to bring them back.

Frankly, I'm torn between JF and TB.
 
WolverineFan said:
Here is my take on Carr...

Carr throws a pretty low amount of INT’s per pass attempt (1 INT every 82.4 pass attempts). However, this can be deceiving because (as we saw in the Rotoworld columns earlier this week) 33% of his attempts are screen passes and 26% of his passes are inside of 5 yards. This means that almost 60% of his pass attempts travel less than 5 yards in the air. Keep in mind that he also played the weakest competition of the 4 QB’s by far. I think the style of offense, being a QB friendly system requiring easy throws, and the fact that he did not play a tough schedule is the reason for his excellent INT rate.

IMO, the reason for the rise in INT’s in the 2nd half is because that style of offense is not always sustainable throughout a game. Sometimes you play a good defense or you need to score quickly and you cannot afford to march down the field with short passes. I think his rise in INT’s has to do with him having to push the ball down the field later in close games and, seeing as how the majority of his passes are extremely short, he is either not used to making these throws or just not as comfortable throwing them. I think the stats point this out with his average intermediate accuracy (64%) and below average deep accuracy (44%), again per Rotoworld. I think it also has a lot to do with his accuracy under pressure (50% against pressure compared to 80% against no pressure, per Rotoworld). When he has to stand in the pocket and scan the field, instead of throwing a bubble screen or slant route, the pass rush has a better chance of getting there. He is obviously much more comfortable getting the ball out quickly.

He seems to be a guy who will complete the short passes the offense requires of him, but when the stakes raise and the pressure amps up he is not comfortable at all. Again, his INT rate isn’t awful by any means, but I find it noteworthy that it is noticeably worse in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.
Click to expand...

Seems alot like his brother to me.
 
Corrosion said:
To me Bortles has the weakest arm of the group .... He really has to load up to throw down field with any distance.

Bridgewater probably does have the strongest arm of the three .... But he drives me nuts throwing so many softballs , too much touch quite often.
Click to expand...

His touch didn't seem to hurt his accuracy %
 
TexansFTW said:
His touch didn't seem to hurt his accuracy %
Click to expand...

No it hasn't but then again , you factor in the level of competition .... That's an issue that could really have an impact upon his results in the NFL , throwing floaters against the scrubs is one thing , throwing floaters against the best in the world is another.

Combine that with the as yet unconfirmed small hands and this guy could be a turnover machine at the NFL level.



But .... you seem to have made up your mind , some of us haven't and are looking at all the information in front of us before making that decision.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top