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This is a look at the first round drafts from 1996 to 2003 concerning drafted OTs and drafted RBs.
Why did I choose this sample size? I consider 03 to be a good stopping point in terms of fair evaluations, and 96 seems to be a good starter.
Feel free to critique whether my hit/miss is accurate. Some people I label as hits, could be considered a mediocre player fortunate enough to never be challenged [Harris, Petitgout].
Some people labeled as whiffs, could be considered hits, but I'm at odds [mainly, Turley and Thomas Jones].
In that sense, the numbers I put out for overall first round picks is subject to chance, and I'll probably go with your word if you say, "Player X definitely is a Hit/Player Z definitely is a Whiff."
When it comes to my hit/miss ratios for Top 10 picks, that's a different story. I'm pretty certain that I got them right. [Unless people argue that Turley is a hit]
Is this an addenum to the Bush/OT debate? You bet your horses it is.
Does history repeat itself? Lightning never strikes twice? You make the call.
1996
OT
Jonathan Ogden - Hit
Willie Anderson - Hit
John Michels - Whiff
Jamain Stephens - Whiff
Andre Johnson - Whiff
RB
Lawrence Phillips - Whiff
Tim Biakabatuka - Whiff
Eddie George - Hit
1997
OT
Orlando Pace - Hit
Walter Jones - Hit
Tarik Glenn - Hit
Ross Verba - Hold
RB
Warrick Dunn - Hit
Antowain Smith - Whiff
1998
OT
Kyle Turley - Whiff
Tra Thomas - Hit
Victor Riley - Whiff
RB
Curtis Enis - Whiff
Fred Taylor - Hit
Robert Edwards - Whiff
John Avery - Whiff
1999
OT
John Tait - Hit
Luke Petitgout - Hit
L.J. Shelton - Hit
Aaron Gibson - Whiff
RB
Edgerrin James - Hit
Ricky Williams - Puff
2000
OT
Chris Samuels - Hit
Stockar McDougle - Whiff
Chris McIntosh - Whiff
RB
Jamal Lewis - Hit
Thomas Jones - Whiff
Ron Dayne - Whiff
Shaun Alexander - Hit
Trung Candidate - Whiff
2001
OT
Leonard Davis - Hit
Kenyatta Walker - Whiff
Jeff Backus - Hit
RB
LaDanian Tomlinson - Hit
Deuce McAlister - Hit
Michael Bennett - Whiff
2002
OT
Mike Williams - Whiff
Bryant McKinnie - Hit
Levi Jones - Hit
Marc Colombo - Whiff
Kendall Simmons - Hit
RB
William Green - Whiff
T.J. Duckett - Hit
2003
OT
Jordan Gross - Hit
George Foster - Hit
Kwame Harris - Hit
RB
Willis McGahee - Hit
Larry Johnson - Hit
TOTAL:
OT
Top Ten - 8/10 = 80%
Overall - 18/30 = 60%
RB
Top Ten - 3/6 = 50%
Overall - 11/23 = 44%
Conclusion: History shows that drafting OTs yields a higher probability of draft success over drafting RBs. When it comes to Top Ten drafting, success in OT drafting is significantly higher than RB drafting.
What does this mean?
1) Drafting Ferguson/Winston is the safe choice, FREENEY WHO?
2) History means nothing! Draft Bush, MOVE OVER COLTS.
Why did I choose this sample size? I consider 03 to be a good stopping point in terms of fair evaluations, and 96 seems to be a good starter.
Feel free to critique whether my hit/miss is accurate. Some people I label as hits, could be considered a mediocre player fortunate enough to never be challenged [Harris, Petitgout].
Some people labeled as whiffs, could be considered hits, but I'm at odds [mainly, Turley and Thomas Jones].
In that sense, the numbers I put out for overall first round picks is subject to chance, and I'll probably go with your word if you say, "Player X definitely is a Hit/Player Z definitely is a Whiff."
When it comes to my hit/miss ratios for Top 10 picks, that's a different story. I'm pretty certain that I got them right. [Unless people argue that Turley is a hit]
Is this an addenum to the Bush/OT debate? You bet your horses it is.
Does history repeat itself? Lightning never strikes twice? You make the call.
1996
OT
Jonathan Ogden - Hit
Willie Anderson - Hit
John Michels - Whiff
Jamain Stephens - Whiff
Andre Johnson - Whiff
RB
Lawrence Phillips - Whiff
Tim Biakabatuka - Whiff
Eddie George - Hit
1997
OT
Orlando Pace - Hit
Walter Jones - Hit
Tarik Glenn - Hit
Ross Verba - Hold
RB
Warrick Dunn - Hit
Antowain Smith - Whiff
1998
OT
Kyle Turley - Whiff
Tra Thomas - Hit
Victor Riley - Whiff
RB
Curtis Enis - Whiff
Fred Taylor - Hit
Robert Edwards - Whiff
John Avery - Whiff
1999
OT
John Tait - Hit
Luke Petitgout - Hit
L.J. Shelton - Hit
Aaron Gibson - Whiff
RB
Edgerrin James - Hit
Ricky Williams - Puff
2000
OT
Chris Samuels - Hit
Stockar McDougle - Whiff
Chris McIntosh - Whiff
RB
Jamal Lewis - Hit
Thomas Jones - Whiff
Ron Dayne - Whiff
Shaun Alexander - Hit
Trung Candidate - Whiff
2001
OT
Leonard Davis - Hit
Kenyatta Walker - Whiff
Jeff Backus - Hit
RB
LaDanian Tomlinson - Hit
Deuce McAlister - Hit
Michael Bennett - Whiff
2002
OT
Mike Williams - Whiff
Bryant McKinnie - Hit
Levi Jones - Hit
Marc Colombo - Whiff
Kendall Simmons - Hit
RB
William Green - Whiff
T.J. Duckett - Hit
2003
OT
Jordan Gross - Hit
George Foster - Hit
Kwame Harris - Hit
RB
Willis McGahee - Hit
Larry Johnson - Hit
TOTAL:
OT
Top Ten - 8/10 = 80%
Overall - 18/30 = 60%
RB
Top Ten - 3/6 = 50%
Overall - 11/23 = 44%
Conclusion: History shows that drafting OTs yields a higher probability of draft success over drafting RBs. When it comes to Top Ten drafting, success in OT drafting is significantly higher than RB drafting.
What does this mean?
1) Drafting Ferguson/Winston is the safe choice, FREENEY WHO?
2) History means nothing! Draft Bush, MOVE OVER COLTS.