infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Hadn't heard the rumors but he was on the list I suggested.
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All encompassing Bill O'Brien thread
- Thread starter False Start
- Start date
Hadn't heard the rumors but he was on the list I suggested.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
I find it funny that Deshaun Watson played in 7 games this year and in those 7 games he went from being a winner, to being the Michael Jordan of football, to being a super human athlete.
In all of 7 games. Before he got IR’d.
Bill O'Brien's offense in 58 games with someone other than Deshaun Watson at QB has averaged 19.6 points per game.
23.2 in 2014
19.9 in 2015
17.8 in 2016
14.8 in 2017
In 6 games WITH Watson at QB - 34.6 points per game. I'd say that is freaking amazing. Yeah, it's a small sample size and I'm not ready book a trip to Canton, but the ONLY time O'Brien's offense has looked like a real NFL offense in his 4 years here, is those 6 games. And even then it was Watson's ability to escape the onslaught of the defense blowing through this o-line and not only extending, but making plays.
So either Watson is a winning, Michael Jordan, super human, or we phased into an alternate universe for 6 weeks, because OB didn't just get it all of a sudden, especially since they're back down to their regular 16.1 PPG boring as shit OB offense since the injury.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
What makes those numbers doubly incriminating is they are steadily downhill. Reversed and they'd look headed to a decent NFL offense. But as it is, as "the system" got more fully installed we went into the crapper.
Brisco_County
Apples and roadmaps
I internally go back and forth on firing O'Brien, and right now I'm learn toward letting him go. This is why:
After Watson was lost for the season, my thoughts kept returning to this fundamental lesson about business: Profit covers up a lot of problems. What if we swap "profit" with "points" or "wins"?
Have you ever worked for a company where the leadership was out of touch, or the culture was toxic, or processes were ill-managed, but the company's favorable position in its industry made it fail-proof? In that situation, the profit always flows, so nothing gets fixed. Profit conceals problems like a perpetually high tide concealing a shipwreck. This is what would've happened if Watson played every week. All the points he scored and the extra wins would've been gravy covering up moldy biscuits. When Watson left, the tide fell, and the shipwreck remained exposed.
When Bill Belichick's tide fell in 2008 with the loss of Brady, there was no shipwreck at the bottom. Matt Cassel led them to an 11 win season.
Yeah, this year there are injuries, but that happens to the Packers every year. Yeah, the O-line is abysmal, but we still don't know how to strategically use timeouts. And nothing changes the fact that if you plug all the small coaching errors into a formula, it will always equal: No Championship.
Whether you have Watson or Brady, you have to do the little things right to win it all, and I don't have faith that O'Brien will learn that after year four.
After Watson was lost for the season, my thoughts kept returning to this fundamental lesson about business: Profit covers up a lot of problems. What if we swap "profit" with "points" or "wins"?
Have you ever worked for a company where the leadership was out of touch, or the culture was toxic, or processes were ill-managed, but the company's favorable position in its industry made it fail-proof? In that situation, the profit always flows, so nothing gets fixed. Profit conceals problems like a perpetually high tide concealing a shipwreck. This is what would've happened if Watson played every week. All the points he scored and the extra wins would've been gravy covering up moldy biscuits. When Watson left, the tide fell, and the shipwreck remained exposed.
When Bill Belichick's tide fell in 2008 with the loss of Brady, there was no shipwreck at the bottom. Matt Cassel led them to an 11 win season.
Yeah, this year there are injuries, but that happens to the Packers every year. Yeah, the O-line is abysmal, but we still don't know how to strategically use timeouts. And nothing changes the fact that if you plug all the small coaching errors into a formula, it will always equal: No Championship.
Whether you have Watson or Brady, you have to do the little things right to win it all, and I don't have faith that O'Brien will learn that after year four.
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OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
Well put, Brisco_County!!!
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
Don’t know about Bevell. Play calling is suspect. He should’ve called run instead of pass in the Super Bowl.
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
Numbers don’t tell the whole story. Those are number with a franchise QBs vs numbers with back up qb.
Fitz - back up QB
Hoyer/Mallett - back up QB
Osweiler - Browns didn’t even want him
Savage - back up QB
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
They very much tell the story of the Texans either punting on QB for 3 straight years or not being very good at evaluating talent at QB.
And if your offensive system requires someone other than "backup" QBs to run it, why the hell wasn't it addressed sooner?
TxnsJuggernaut
Veteran
I have watched plenty of games myself and I don't think there are many teams that could overcome the cluster **** of injuries we sustained. Those that were season ending and others for a few games and many players sustained injuries for large parts of games. I don't like using injuries as an excuse but this season I think injuries are a valid excuse. There aren't many teams that could overcome the many injuries our team tried to overcome this season.
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adama51
Walk-on
I'm curious as to where everybody is getting Lovie as a replacement
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
Isn’t that the job for the GM? To get and pick the personnel?
Fitz was the stop gap. They whiffed in the draft that year. Passed on Carr and Garrapolo. For Filo. Not going to go down the rumor road of who wanted Garrapolo and who said they could get him in the third...
Was Mallett and Hoyer OBs picks after the whiff in the draft?
Osweiler was under McNairs orders we know that.
And they finally hit in the draft with Watson. Was it Ricks pick?
At the end of the day who is in charge of the roster and who coaches?
If part of the job of the coach is to get the most out of his players OB has done that. Two division titles.
TxnsJuggernaut
Veteran
I myself am for BO'b remaining through at least the beginning of next season. I do think injuries are a valid excuse for our whole coaching staff. I don't think the Packers are a valid example because with or without injuries including the health and lack thereof of Aaron Rodgers they still haven't been to the Super Bowl since their last appearance several seasons back.
No matter how anyone wants to slice it, with the season ending injuries to key players early in our season and the sporadic injuries to other important contributors throughout the season it is a wonder we have been competitive in many of our games let alone win most of them.
I look forward to seeing how things go if we can mostly stay healthy.
bOODRO87
Time Consumer
You need an offensive line to run any system. We do not have an offensive line.
Rick fuct O'Brien over when he whiffed on Su'a-Filo while losing Ben Jones & Brandon Brooks to FA. Jeff Allen and Tony Bergstrom were also both bad signings.
You can't expect to win a lot of games when your star QB goes down and you don't have an OL.
O'Brien gets a full season with Watson. Knock on wood.
Rick fuct O'Brien over when he whiffed on Su'a-Filo while losing Ben Jones & Brandon Brooks to FA. Jeff Allen and Tony Bergstrom were also both bad signings.
You can't expect to win a lot of games when your star QB goes down and you don't have an OL.
O'Brien gets a full season with Watson. Knock on wood.
Scooter
Funky
This IMO is the key component between O'Brien and Smith. O'Brien decided to release Jones and Brooks (and Myers and Smith and now Brown), and failed to develop XSF. Rick failed to find competent replacements - or at least competent placeholders in free agency. Rick also failed to prioritize the offensive line during the drafts.
I agree, but the lack of depth is truly showing this yr. It really shows you the terrible job Ricky and the scouts are doing. I hope Bob/Ricky McNair are enjoying sitting on that pile of $$$$.
BTW, if Ricky would've fixed the OL and he had the cap space to do so, there's a chance the Texans could be looking like the Vikings, who've had just as many injuries as the Texans. (Which include their QB/ NLF leading Rusher RB/RT/RG etc....)
How do you know that OB decided to release any of those guys? OB doesn't do contracts. OB may have agreed with Smith not to over pay those guys but I seriously doubt OB made any of those calls on his own.
Scooter
Funky
Have a better explanation? Half the offense gets dropped after O'Brien has time to assess the team. We extended Newton (weak link) and worked towards dropping everyone except for Brown and Hopkins ... now just Hopkins. Every one of those players that was dropped was a contract that Smith signed ... did Smith just yell out 'my bad' as he cut everyone?
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
In a conventional system, yes. Not the Texans. The Texans have said 100 times they do not run that way. RS runs the scouting and then acquisition is a joint HC & GM decision. Neither has the authority to override the other. If they cannot come to an agreement then McNair will decide.
Seriously? RC is an example of getting the best out. OB is a massive fail of system addiction over player strengths.
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
Sounds more and more like the HC is always going to be the fall guy i this system that has been created.
True on your second point. But at the end of the day he brought in RC. So he shares in the success too. OB got the most out of Fitz, Hoyer until the playoffs, Mallett was a failed experiment, so was Brock. And what could we really expect out of Savage? Another stop gap?
9 times out of 10 a coach is successful with a franchise QB unless your Jeff Fisher. He finally got one. Sean Payton with Brees, McCarthy with Rogers. Belichick is the only exception to the rule that he can produce without one.
Back to the QB position it was ignored for two years. Is that all on OB?
zshawn10
All Pro
Dov Kleiman
✔@NFL_DovKleiman
Per @mlombardiNFL, he suspects the #Texans might fire head coach Bill O'Brien at the end of the regular season.
10:37 AM - Dec 11, 2017
✔@NFL_DovKleiman
Per @mlombardiNFL, he suspects the #Texans might fire head coach Bill O'Brien at the end of the regular season.
10:37 AM - Dec 11, 2017
bOODRO87
Time Consumer
Never heard of this asshat.
Lombardi is connected to the Pats org. He knows what's going on.
Just like I said this offseason, one way or another BOB will be gone after this offseason. But dont wory, he will land on his feet.
I had a very good offseason at predicting what's going to happen with the Texans org and people have mocked my thoughts and poo poo'ed BOB's own words. This is what Ricky's been working towards.
I think he may be the worst coach in Houston sports history:
-dismantled a good roster, most egregiously the OL with an assist from Rick Smith
-cant figure out who to start at QB despite having a rep as a QB guru.
-doesn't know how to use timeouts, then tells the media to shutup about clock management
-doesn't know the challenge flag rules, needs to ask the punter
-has an offensive system that gets worse every year, unless he scraps it for Watson
-has an offensive system that leads receivers and QBs into concussions (or in the case of Will Fuller, broken bones)
-risks player health by using them out of position for "genius" trick plays (an LB at kicker, Watt as an RB or TE)
-trades up for busts and overpays for free agents with an assist from Rick Smith, resulting in a roster with no depth
-leaks nonstop to the media to shift blame mainly to Rick Smith (who deserves it too)
-dismantled a good roster, most egregiously the OL with an assist from Rick Smith
-cant figure out who to start at QB despite having a rep as a QB guru.
-doesn't know how to use timeouts, then tells the media to shutup about clock management
-doesn't know the challenge flag rules, needs to ask the punter
-has an offensive system that gets worse every year, unless he scraps it for Watson
-has an offensive system that leads receivers and QBs into concussions (or in the case of Will Fuller, broken bones)
-risks player health by using them out of position for "genius" trick plays (an LB at kicker, Watt as an RB or TE)
-trades up for busts and overpays for free agents with an assist from Rick Smith, resulting in a roster with no depth
-leaks nonstop to the media to shift blame mainly to Rick Smith (who deserves it too)
Remember when O'B thought Bang Bang Chicken and Shrimp was a good Running Back because he saw him run against our poor defense?
Or when he tried to make Hoyer, Mallett and Savage franchise players, and getting upset at the fanbase for not getting behind them?
I say get rid of O'B and promote Rick Smith somewhere else if McNair doesn't want to get rid of him, and hire a good GM and HC for once.
Or when he tried to make Hoyer, Mallett and Savage franchise players, and getting upset at the fanbase for not getting behind them?
I say get rid of O'B and promote Rick Smith somewhere else if McNair doesn't want to get rid of him, and hire a good GM and HC for once.
Brisco_County
Apples and roadmaps
Jerome Solomon's opinion piece from last week is consistent with my last post:
Link
Attention to detail. Learning the finer points.
It is easy to criticize Rick Smith and Bob McNair for meddling in a coach's kitchen, but have we considered the times they were right? They were right about removing Kubiak's decision making power on defensive staff, then hiring Wade Phillips. They were right about kicking the tires on Case Keenum while Kubiak wanted to start Schaub. They were right about swinging for the fences to get a QB, even if it meant striking out on Osweiler before hitting the home run on Watson. They were right about firing Godsey. And now, they are probably right that their coach cannot make the correct decisions when the game is on the line, as evidenced in New England and Seattle.
Assigning Romeo Crennel with counseling O'Brien from the booth was McNair's way of reducing O'Brien's blind spots. After that, no excuses for bad decisions. Yet we're still seeing poor clock management and bad play calls.
And don't discount McNair's dwindling patience being affected by his limited time on this planet. He's not getting any younger, and cancer treatment doesn't bode well for a senior citizen's longevity.
I'm putting a lot of stock in the termination rumors this season.
Link
Attention to detail. Learning the finer points.
It is easy to criticize Rick Smith and Bob McNair for meddling in a coach's kitchen, but have we considered the times they were right? They were right about removing Kubiak's decision making power on defensive staff, then hiring Wade Phillips. They were right about kicking the tires on Case Keenum while Kubiak wanted to start Schaub. They were right about swinging for the fences to get a QB, even if it meant striking out on Osweiler before hitting the home run on Watson. They were right about firing Godsey. And now, they are probably right that their coach cannot make the correct decisions when the game is on the line, as evidenced in New England and Seattle.
Assigning Romeo Crennel with counseling O'Brien from the booth was McNair's way of reducing O'Brien's blind spots. After that, no excuses for bad decisions. Yet we're still seeing poor clock management and bad play calls.
And don't discount McNair's dwindling patience being affected by his limited time on this planet. He's not getting any younger, and cancer treatment doesn't bode well for a senior citizen's longevity.
I'm putting a lot of stock in the termination rumors this season.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
I could be wrong but only four years were guaranteed (Bill O'Brian) the 5th a team option so no decision will have to be made until after this (2017) season. McNair will probably extend him, like he did w/Kubes, unless McNair(s) decide to cut Rick loose early (extended thru 2020) which is very doubtful. Understand this is unpopular situation, we're all frustrated top down but firing Kubiak when they did was not the right decision either.
Smartest move by ownership would be to bring in outside consultant to evaluate structure and decision making, past & present to align with future expectations.
Smartest move by ownership would be to bring in outside consultant to evaluate structure and decision making, past & present to align with future expectations.
Smith doesn't have to yell "my bad". He only needs to say "salary cap era". Just because Smith originally signed those players to a contract doesn't mean he's obliged to re-sign them after that contract expires. I'd be more inclined to agree with you if you'd said each one of those players was a Kubiak pick. That makes more sense in your scenario to me.
Texansballer74
The Marine
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
No, the smart GM locks up his potential stars before they get to the end of their contract and have an agent screaming in their ear to test the FA market.
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adama51
Walk-on
This is why I really cant get behind the few folks wanting to trade Clowney(I know that's a convo for next year but still). We have let some good players walk before but this would be the most egregious error considering what he is doing now. If he stays relatively healthy throughout next year I will fight RS for even discussing a trade.
Also, let it be known I'm a Clowney fanboy so don't mind me.
The OL/DB's stinking?
Watson getting hurt behind this OL.
BOB being gone after this year.
What more do you want.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Except Bouye didn't look special until his last year.
adama51
Walk-on
And we also offered him not much less than the Jags if memory serves. He really wanted to be THE guy. He probably would have been relegated to 3rd string or package player had he stayed.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
You never know when the light will go on and the game finally slows down for some players. This is the job of the coaches and RS. How come Crennel wasn't making his case to O'Brien who then makes his case to RS to keep this guy instead of letting him leave...much less to a division rival. That's the risk a team has to accept if they let a highly coveted player hit the FA market.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
...and who would that black-eye belong to?
I've heard those rumors, too. I'm not superstitious, but that's bad juju to put Frank on those ancient Indian burial grounds under NRG.
Well said. Why not bring in a guy like Bill Parcells to help the McNairs evaluate this organization from the top on down? If not Parcells, there are other qualified football minds. Just let them give you an outsider perspective from someone that has made it to the top of the mountain.
I'd like to see them clean house, regardless of the trauma involved.
adama51
Walk-on
I was all for keeping Bouye actually but not for paying him that much to be a 3rd stringer. I can see both sides of the argument but lets not forget that Romo was still in play at that point in time and we had a decision to make in terms of cap space
TxnsJuggernaut
Veteran
I myself am for BO'b remaining through at least the beginning of next season. I do think injuries are a valid excuse for our whole coaching staff. I don't think the Packers are a valid example because with or without injuries including the health and lack thereof of Aaron Rodgers they still haven't been to the Super Bowl since their last appearance several seasons back.
No matter how anyone wants to slice it, with the season ending injuries to key players early in our season and the sporadic injuries to other important contributors throughout the season it is a wonder we have been competitive in many of our games let alone win most of them.
I look forward to seeing how things go if we can mostly stay healthy.
You make a valid argument.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
I was 100% against signing Romo, since the OL would've got him killed (I actually stated this very observation when everyone got excited about the pursuit of Romo) and he would've screwed the cap. RS might've been in the position of having to give up the rest of the teams 2018 draft picks to get out that potential mistake.
adama51
Walk-on
And that is a legit concern, I was on both sides of the fence in terms of signing Romo and maybe it was one of your arguments that got me to rethink it. Yet and still, RS still wanted to make a move on him. We were talking about why we didn't keep Bouye along with other young talent and I was just giving an example as to why RS didn't want to play hardball with the Jags.
I 100% agree with you on that, but even smart GMs have to play by the rules with a hard salary cap and hindsight is always 20/20. Every team would like to have an all pro at every position, but that's just not feasible in this era.
It's also very typical to go with younger guards when the ones you have hit FA and are getting big$$$ offers.
And he's still a PI machine and playing on another great team defense. Overpaying one year wonders has killed more GMs than letting some walk.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Hindsight is running rampant on Bouye. There was all sorts of 'try to retain him but don't pay too much' talk. He got more than most of the numbers being thrown around as too much.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Don’t think it’s a stretch to say Bouye was Texans best CB in 2016 and better than First Round, injury prone, Kevin Johnson. That’s not hindsight, it’s fact. Hindsight is more like not resigning the guy despite those facts
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Don’t think it’s a stretch to say Bouye was Texans best CB in 2016 and better than First Round, injury prone, Kevin Johnson. That’s not hindsight, it’s fact. Hindsight is more like not resigning the guy despite those facts
Yeah I think that is a stretch.
And of course he was better than a guy who was injured for 2/3rds of the season.
Ignoring the price discussion is applying hindsight.
But thanks for the example.
https://overthecap.com/player/a-j-bouye/2606/Don’t think it’s a stretch to say Bouye was Texans best CB in 2016 and better than First Round, injury prone, Kevin Johnson. That’s not hindsight, it’s fact. Hindsight is more like not resigning the guy despite those facts
Those are insane numbers to spend on a UDFA with one good season under their belt unless you're a team with a $hit ton of cap space. The Jags had that space. The Texans didn't.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Texans developed him on the cheap, he deserved contract and you get what you pay for.