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2024 Draft Wild Speculation

BullRushTX

BullRushTX

To'oTo'o A'go-go
Just for fun, I'm trying to figure out the Texans draft strategy. So I'm looking at the prospect visits and where the prospects are projected to be drafted. I'm using the NFL Mock Draft Database Consensus Board just for the ease of it. I'm trying to locate clusters of prospects:

www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

2024 Consensus Big Board | NFL Mock Draft Database

The 2024 Consensus NFL Big Board from NFL Mock Draft Database. We've compiled all featured big boards into a single board.
www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

RB: The Texans have had visits with 5 RBs projected to go between picks 100 and 142
WR: Visits with 5 WRs projected to go between picks 33 and 48 and 4 WRs projected to go between picks 135 to 152
TE: Visits with 4 of the top 5 TEs in the draft; 3 of which are projected to go between picks 83 and 102
OL: Lots of top 30 visits with Tackles who are projected to go between rounds 2 and 4. A cluster of 5 OL who are projected to go between picks 93 and 143
DT: Visits with 4 of the top 7 DTs with those prospects projected to go between picks 27 and 69
EDGE: No clusters, but the prospects they've spoken to are spread out across basically all rounds of the draft. They seem to have heavy interest in Mo Kamara.
LB: Same as with EDGE
CB: Visits with the top 8 CBs. Visits with 3 CBs projected to go between picks 107 and 123.
S: Visits with the top 5 Safeties.

From this information, I'm going to guess a few thing will happen during the draft:

1. An OL - most likely a Tackle - will be selected with one of the first four picks
2. At least one secondary player will be selected with one of the first four picks
3. EDGE and LB are lower priority positions the team believes they can find suitable fits for in later rounds
4. If a WR is selected, they will probably be a day three pick - especially because of the Diggs trade
5. DT is a strong possibility in the second round
6. TE is a strong possibility in the third round
7. RB is probably a lower priority, but a possibility in the fourth round
 
I tend to agree with the conclusion about priorities and guys/positions they look at later; I'm just not sure we can infer all of that based on the top 30 visits. I don't have the time or the inclination, but if anyone wants to go back to look at the top 30 visits last year and see what (if any) the correlation is...that would be of interest.
 
BullRushTX said:
Just for fun, I'm trying to figure out the Texans draft strategy. So I'm looking at the prospect visits and where the prospects are projected to be drafted. I'm using the NFL Mock Draft Database Consensus Board just for the ease of it. I'm trying to locate clusters of prospects:

www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

2024 Consensus Big Board | NFL Mock Draft Database

The 2024 Consensus NFL Big Board from NFL Mock Draft Database. We've compiled all featured big boards into a single board.
www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

RB: The Texans have had visits with 5 RBs projected to go between picks 100 and 142
WR: Visits with 5 WRs projected to go between picks 33 and 48 and 4 WRs projected to go between picks 135 to 152
TE: Visits with 4 of the top 5 TEs in the draft; 3 of which are projected to go between picks 83 and 102
OL: Lots of top 30 visits with Tackles who are projected to go between rounds 2 and 4. A cluster of 5 OL who are projected to go between picks 93 and 143
DT: Visits with 4 of the top 7 DTs with those prospects projected to go between picks 27 and 69
EDGE: No clusters, but the prospects they've spoken to are spread out across basically all rounds of the draft. They seem to have heavy interest in Mo Kamara.
LB: Same as with EDGE
CB: Visits with the top 8 CBs. Visits with 3 CBs projected to go between picks 107 and 123.
S: Visits with the top 5 Safeties.

From this information, I'm going to guess a few thing will happen during the draft:

1. An OL - most likely a Tackle - will be selected with one of the first four picks
2. At least one secondary player will be selected with one of the first four picks
3. EDGE and LB are lower priority positions the team believes they can find suitable fits for in later rounds
4. If a WR is selected, they will probably be a day three pick - especially because of the Diggs trade
5. DT is a strong possibility in the second round
6. TE is a strong possibility in the third round
7. RB is probably a lower priority, but a possibility in the fourth round
Click to expand...
I suggest you lower your priority on visits and focus on what needs you think Houston needs. Then realize where we think needs are.. Ryans and Caserio may disagree.
For example, many of us say DT, RT and LB are priority needs. I think they think Settle and Kahlil behind Fatukasi and Autry settles that possibility.

If Howard is close to 90% (I say no) priority drops. I feel OT at our round 4 (could see round 3) correlates with your suggestion.

Your #2. Narrow it down.. safety or corner? Safety: again Ryans could feel good with Jimmy, Jalen and the boys. Stewart probably locked for special teamers.
CB? Highest priority #1 [if Howard healthier than I think].
#3 ? Maybe but if Diggs leaves, do you want to chance getting a replacement in the first round in 2025? Draft deep so grab that Diggs replacement now.
Finally, I appreciate your efforts!
 
Porky said:
I tend to agree with the conclusion about priorities and guys/positions they look at later; I'm just not sure we can infer all of that based on the top 30 visits. I don't have the time or the inclination, but if anyone wants to go back to look at the top 30 visits last year and see what (if any) the correlation is...that would be of interest.
Click to expand...
Here's a breakdown of the top 30 visits last year by position group:

QB - 5
EDGE - 4
WR and all OL - 3
LB and S - 2
CB and RB - 1
DT and TE - 0

As far as their picks went:

(QB) CJ Stroud (COM, T30)
(EDGE) Will Anderson (COM, T30)
(OL) Juice Scruggs (couldn't find any visit info)
(WR) Tank Dell (COM, PRO, T30, LOC)
(EDGE) Dylan Horton Edge TCU (PRO)
(LB) Henry To'tTo'o (couldn't find any visit info)
(OL) Jarrett Patterson (couldn't find any visit info)
(WR) Xavier Hutchinson (couldn't find any visit info)
(S) Brandon Hill (couldn't find any visit info)

Last year's top 30 visits seemed to be a strong indication of the position groups being prioritized, but not necessarily the player who would be selected - QB (1st pick), EDGE (2 picks - one early, one late), OL (2 picks - one early, one late), WR (2 picks - one early, one late), LB (1 day three pick), S (1 day three pick), no CB, RB, DT, or TE.
 
badboy said:
I suggest you lower your priority on visits and focus on what needs you think Houston needs. Then realize where we think needs are.. Ryans and Caserio may disagree.
For example, many of us say DT, RT and LB are priority needs. I think they think Settle and Kahlil behind Fatukasi and Autry settles that possibility.

If Howard is close to 90% (I say no) priority drops. I feel OT at our round 4 (could see round 3) correlates with your suggestion.

Your #2. Narrow it down.. safety or corner? Safety: again Ryans could feel good with Jimmy, Jalen and the boys. Stewart probably locked for special teamers.
CB? Highest priority #1 [if Howard healthier than I think].
#3 ? Maybe but if Diggs leaves, do you want to chance getting a replacement in the first round in 2025? Draft deep so grab that Diggs replacement now.
Finally, I appreciate your efforts!
Click to expand...
It's hard to say how coach feels about the positions right now. My speculation is that they're concerned about Howard's health and general production, which is why they're exploring Tackles so much. I think a pick in the 4th makes sense. I'm concerned about what we have a CB2 and I think they might be as well given how many top prospects they've spoken to. I think a CB in the 2nd is likely - especially if one of the top guys slips. However, I could also see taking a S to develop for a year behind Ward in the 2nd or 3rd.

I'm not too confident in the DT position, but maybe they're happy with what they have. If it's a priority, I think they'll take one in the 2nd. I'd like to see them get a WR to develop for a year behind the top three because I think Diggs is one and done. My guess is McCaffrey is the guy in the 4th round because they've met with him three times.

The starting two LBs are fantastic. Maybe HT takes a step forward next year as well (I'd bet he'll improve like Harris did). There's pretty much no depth beyond that. So do they take a guy who will have immediate impact in the 2nd or use a third day pick on a guy to develop? I don't have that answer.

My guess for the draft is:

2nd round - a combination of DT, CB, or LB
3rd round - T, S, TE, or Mo Kamara
4th round - a combination of T, WR, RB, or CB
5th - 7th round - best player available on their board
 
BullRushTX said:
It's hard to say how coach feels about the positions right now. My speculation is that they're concerned about Howard's health and general production, which is why they're exploring Tackles so much. I think a pick in the 4th makes sense. I'm concerned about what we have a CB2 and I think they might be as well given how many top prospects they've spoken to. I think a CB in the 2nd is likely - especially if one of the top guys slips. However, I could also see taking a S to develop for a year behind Ward in the 2nd or 3rd.

I'm not too confident in the DT position, but maybe they're happy with what they have. If it's a priority, I think they'll take one in the 2nd. I'd like to see them get a WR to develop for a year behind the top three because I think Diggs is one and done. My guess is McCaffrey is the guy in the 4th round because they've met with him three times.

The starting two LBs are fantastic. Maybe HT takes a step forward next year as well (I'd bet he'll improve like Harris did). There's pretty much no depth beyond that. So do they take a guy who will have immediate impact in the 2nd or use a third day pick on a guy to develop? I don't have that answer.

My guess for the draft is:

2nd round - a combination of DT, CB, or LB
3rd round - T, S, TE, or Mo Kamara
4th round - a combination of T, WR, RB, or CB
5th - 7th round - best player available on their board
Click to expand...
This is what I see.

I could also see trading up from 3-86.

Say Caserio, Ryans draft LB,DT in the 2nd and there's a CB that they really like I could see Caserio trading up and drafting the CB.
 
BullRushTX said:
Just for fun, I'm trying to figure out the Texans draft strategy. So I'm looking at the prospect visits and where the prospects are projected to be drafted. I'm using the NFL Mock Draft Database Consensus Board just for the ease of it. I'm trying to locate clusters of prospects:

www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

2024 Consensus Big Board | NFL Mock Draft Database

The 2024 Consensus NFL Big Board from NFL Mock Draft Database. We've compiled all featured big boards into a single board.
www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

RB: The Texans have had visits with 5 RBs projected to go between picks 100 and 142
WR: Visits with 5 WRs projected to go between picks 33 and 48 and 4 WRs projected to go between picks 135 to 152
TE: Visits with 4 of the top 5 TEs in the draft; 3 of which are projected to go between picks 83 and 102
OL: Lots of top 30 visits with Tackles who are projected to go between rounds 2 and 4. A cluster of 5 OL who are projected to go between picks 93 and 143
DT: Visits with 4 of the top 7 DTs with those prospects projected to go between picks 27 and 69
EDGE: No clusters, but the prospects they've spoken to are spread out across basically all rounds of the draft. They seem to have heavy interest in Mo Kamara.
LB: Same as with EDGE
CB: Visits with the top 8 CBs. Visits with 3 CBs projected to go between picks 107 and 123.
S: Visits with the top 5 Safeties.

From this information, I'm going to guess a few thing will happen during the draft:

1. An OL - most likely a Tackle - will be selected with one of the first four picks
2. At least one secondary player will be selected with one of the first four picks
3. EDGE and LB are lower priority positions the team believes they can find suitable fits for in later rounds
4. If a WR is selected, they will probably be a day three pick - especially because of the Diggs trade
5. DT is a strong possibility in the second round
6. TE is a strong possibility in the third round
7. RB is probably a lower priority, but a possibility in the fourth round
Click to expand...

Well thought out post. Nick has said in the past that they have players grouped in clusters. We saw last year how they moved up to get their guy at different point based on their board.

I see this becoming a trend with this team (which makes draft day much more exciting!) and will be selecting the BPA in each of these clusters as the board dictates.

Example: They could move up and grab an OT from 42 if one they really like falls within range. Or they could do the same for another position like CB or DT. This applies for every round as we’ve seen with “Riverboat Nick”.
 
BullRushTX said:
It's hard to say how coach feels about the positions right now.
Click to expand...
Right. I think @badboy and some others are missing the point of your post. You're just re-generating the facts and analyzing the data. Not speculating on what the coaches and scouts may think about the players and the roster. That matters. But no one knows what they are thinking. We know whom the Texans are talking to.
 
Lucky said:
Right. I think @badboy and some others are missing the point of your post. You're just re-generating the facts and analyzing the data. Not speculating on what the coaches and scouts may think about the players and the roster. That matters. But no one knows what they are thinking. We know whom the Texans are talking to.
Click to expand...
Exactly. And the picks will very much depend on how the board develops. Nick has mentioned before about how there will be runs on certain positions in a draft, so that changes who you select and when.
 
badboy said:
Do you think he is okay with the cornerback room we have now?
Click to expand...

He shouldn’t be. I want a corner in round 2 or 3 if the board falls that way. If it doesn’t, I’m calling Nelson first..and if that doesn’t work, I’ll call Howard or another aging vet to tie it down for 2024. I’m intrigued by Okudah, but I think it would be foolish to make him #2 corner and call it a day. He’s had lots of injury issues which largely explains why his career hasn’t gotten off the launching pad. And your #1 corner has yet to be healthy himself. Hell I’d draft a guy AND call Nelson. Henderson? Don’t think much of him, but he’ll get his chance in camp. More competition is a good thing!
 
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