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2023 Cap

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
What do y'all think it will look like in 2023?

Up
Down
About the same

And why?
 
Last edited:

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
This was written in June.

Very interesting. You think the owners are going to be willing to spread this yrs hit out over 5-6 years with the hope that the cap goes backup This article was written with the assumption the cap is going to be back to normal in 2021 and forward. If I was an owner that's a 73 million dollar risk I wouldn't be willing to take. But hey, to each their own.

I just don't want to hear any whining from either the players or the owners of the cap stays stagnant or goes down.
 

welsh texan

All Pro
I think things will return to normal with fan attendance and tv/advertising money will just grow
Plus people have very little else to do and less to spend their money on outside of the sports that’s being shown on TV.
The UEFA cup and Champions League were an amazing success in Europe. The F1 you’d hardly notice there haven’t been fans and they are making money racing 3 weekends per month right through till December.
The TV companies are making a fortune off of sports right now. The loss of stadium revenue is heavily mitigated.
Running an NFL franchise is still a profitable venture even with an empty stadium for this year and maybe next.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I think things will return to normal with fan attendance and tv/advertising money will just grow
Agree to disagree.

TV numbers if the NBA is a fire runner of the future means the NFL will have to change the way they are currently doing business.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Plus people have very little else to do and less to spend their money on outside of the sports that’s being shown on TV.
The UEFA cup and Champions League were an amazing success in Europe. The F1 you’d hardly notice there haven’t been fans and they are making money racing 3 weekends per month right through till December.
The TV companies are making a fortune off of sports right now. The loss of stadium revenue is heavily mitigated.
Running an NFL franchise is still a profitable venture even with an empty stadium for this year and maybe next.
This isn't Europe, we have college football/hockey/golf/adult kickball etc.. to watch.

If you want to watch true football watch some Texas highschool football on Friday nights. The we leader in sports is currently showing games. Even the Chinese who own ESPN know how to fill the void.
 

amazing80

Fire Billy O
This isn't Europe, we have college football/hockey/golf/adult kickball etc.. to watch.

If you want to watch true football watch some Texas highschool football on Friday nights. The we leader in sports is currently showing games. Even the Chinese who own ESPN know how to fill the void.
No one cares about any of those sports in the way they do the NFL. If the NFL was wise, it would find a better solution for viewers to watch Sunday Ticket without having DTV. They are missing a huge opportunity to cash in.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
Agree to disagree.

TV numbers if the NBA is a fire runner of the future means the NFL will have to change the way they are currently doing business.
NBA isn't the best example to be using. Their ratings have been dropping, even before COVID and the BLM movement.

I know personally, basketball has taken a back seat to football and baseball. I'm not a fan of today's version of the NBA.
 

mws

Waterboy
TV revenue from the next broadcasting contracts will drive a lot of it. And they will continue to push the brand overseas.
I have no idea what the numbers are today but here are the TV revenues from 2017.

ESPN paid $2 billion a year for Monday Night Football and one wild card NFL playoff game that airs on ABC and ESPN.

Fox paid $1.1 billion a year for the NFC television package and its playoff games.

CBS paid $1 billion a year for the AFC television package, its playoff games, and an additional $230 million for five Thursday night football games.

NBC paid $950 million for Sunday Night football, some playoff games, and an additional $230 million for five Thursday night football games.

In addition to this, Fox, CBS, and NBC all rotate the Super Bowl every three years, which is a massive revenue generator worth several hundred million dollars a year.

Finally, DirecTV paid $1.5 billion a year for the NFL Sunday Ticket.

Add it all up and the NFL made roughly $7 billion for its football games just off television rights in 2017.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I have no idea what the numbers are today but here are the TV revenues from 2017.

ESPN paid $2 billion a year for Monday Night Football and one wild card NFL playoff game that airs on ABC and ESPN.

Fox paid $1.1 billion a year for the NFC television package and its playoff games.

CBS paid $1 billion a year for the AFC television package, its playoff games, and an additional $230 million for five Thursday night football games.

NBC paid $950 million for Sunday Night football, some playoff games, and an additional $230 million for five Thursday night football games.

In addition to this, Fox, CBS, and NBC all rotate the Super Bowl every three years, which is a massive revenue generator worth several hundred million dollars a year.

Finally, DirecTV paid $1.5 billion a year for the NFL Sunday Ticket.

Add it all up and the NFL made roughly $7 billion for its football games just off television rights in 2017.
Yep, and people will be spending less on the NFL product in the future. Their viewing habits have changed, even though I do think the NFL week 1 numbers should be good.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
This isn't Europe, we have college football/hockey/golf/adult kickball etc.. to watch.

If you want to watch true football watch some Texas highschool football on Friday nights. The we leader in sports is currently showing games. Even the Chinese who own ESPN know how to fill the void.
Ok I was with you at college football then ...
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Very interesting. You think the owners are going to be willing to spread this yrs hit out over 5-6 years with the hope that the cap goes backup This article was written with the assumption the cap is going to be back to normal in 2021 and forward. If I was an owner that's a 73 million dollar risk I wouldn't be willing to take. But hey, to each their own.

I just don't want to hear any whining from either the players or the owners of the cap stays stagnant or goes down.

They have already agreed to spread the losses over 4 years with next years cap being no lower than 165m.

That 165m is a 35m decrease from the current cap.

I don't see a sharp increase over the next 2-3 years but a slow climb back to ~200m by 2024 and that's assuming there are asses in the seats for 2021 and beyond.

If the Covid issue isn't solved , their numbers are going to go lower as that's a third of the leagues revenue.

Fans in the seats , tailgating - the general game day experience matters. Just look at how many here who's give a hoot meter is lower than ever , I didn't even follow the draft this season - a first since this site's inception. There are a lot of things that played into that including OB & Covid ...

This season feels like one of those replacement player seasons to me .... just weird. I think its going to have a significant impact on TV viewership. The other major sports leagues are seeing a decline in viewers too (this was prior to Covid).

 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
I have no idea what the numbers are today but here are the TV revenues from 2017.

ESPN paid $2 billion a year for Monday Night Football and one wild card NFL playoff game that airs on ABC and ESPN.

Fox paid $1.1 billion a year for the NFC television package and its playoff games.

CBS paid $1 billion a year for the AFC television package, its playoff games, and an additional $230 million for five Thursday night football games.

NBC paid $950 million for Sunday Night football, some playoff games, and an additional $230 million for five Thursday night football games.

In addition to this, Fox, CBS, and NBC all rotate the Super Bowl every three years, which is a massive revenue generator worth several hundred million dollars a year.

Finally, DirecTV paid $1.5 billion a year for the NFL Sunday Ticket.

Add it all up and the NFL made roughly $7 billion for its football games just off television rights in 2017.
Yep , TV money is about 42% of league revenue.

Asses in seats are about 33%.

Something we and they apparently haven't taken into account is that TV is changing - dramatically. People PAY for streaming - they don't want to pay for commercials.

Many people have cut the cable cord and use streaming services now which are eventually going eliminate local channels (ABC , CBS , NBC affiliates). I think eventually we'll have to purchase league specific packages like Sunday Ticket via these streaming services.
That's really going to cut into the NFL's current business model because their $$$ is made off of selling advertising time.


Either they figure out a way to make up that revenue or .... they see their numbers contract.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator / Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Yep , TV money is about 42% of league revenue.

Asses in seats are about 33%.

Something we and they apparently haven't taken into account is that TV is changing - dramatically. People PAY for streaming - they don't want to pay for commercials.

Many people have cut the cable cord and use streaming services now which are eventually going eliminate local channels (ABC , CBS , NBC affiliates). I think eventually we'll have to purchase league specific packages like Sunday Ticket via these streaming services.
That's really going to cut into the NFL's current business model because their $$$ is made off of selling advertising time.


Either they figure out a way to make up that revenue or .... they see their numbers contract.
I think it depends on which streaming service that you're talking about.

Of course, Netflix and Hulu have no commercials. But, YouTubeTV, FuboTV, HuluTV, AppleTV, AmazonFireTV, and others are following the same business model as cable tv. It's just delivered by a different method of internet vs. cable / satellite.

The networks and leagues have no reason to change the system. And as long as the streaming services are making money, they are not going to change it. Advertisement = profits. That basic mechanism of capitalism is not going to change until an overwhelming number of folks are willing to pay for direct broadcasts (which I don't think will happen anytime soon).

And even if the numbers are down and the revenue stream goes down, the league is not going to fold. They will just figure out a way to pay the players less money. The owners and leage is certainly not going to lose money, so the only thing to give will be player salaries. But, the show must go on.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
Yep , TV money is about 42% of league revenue.

Asses in seats are about 33%.

Something we and they apparently haven't taken into account is that TV is changing - dramatically. People PAY for streaming - they don't want to pay for commercials.

Many people have cut the cable cord and use streaming services now which are eventually going eliminate local channels (ABC , CBS , NBC affiliates). I think eventually we'll have to purchase league specific packages like Sunday Ticket via these streaming services.
That's really going to cut into the NFL's current business model because their $$$ is made off of selling advertising time.


Either they figure out a way to make up that revenue or .... they see their numbers contract.
The NFL will find creative ways to capture advertising revenue. Product placement, ads on the field. BTW, I cut the cord, but I still get broadcast channels over the air for free. Cutting the cord is all about divorcing from cable providers to save money. Getting free TV over the air is very pro-cord cutting.
 

welsh texan

All Pro
No one cares about any of those sports in the way they do the NFL. If the NFL was wise, it would find a better solution for viewers to watch Sunday Ticket without having DTV. They are missing a huge opportunity to cash in.
VPN Gamepass at ~£130 per season?
I get what you are saying that they have the infrastructure to offer this in the US as well as abroad, but they make so much off the TV deal they will never want to dilute it, whereas in the UK, Sky carry one game per time slot (with that game unavailable live on gamepass) so they are cashing the hardcore rather than diluting the casual fan.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Yep , TV money is about 42% of league revenue.

Asses in seats are about 33%.

Something we and they apparently haven't taken into account is that TV is changing - dramatically. People PAY for streaming - they don't want to pay for commercials.

Many people have cut the cable cord and use streaming services now which are eventually going eliminate local channels (ABC , CBS , NBC affiliates). I think eventually we'll have to purchase league specific packages like Sunday Ticket via these streaming services.
That's really going to cut into the NFL's current business model because their $$$ is made off of selling advertising time.


Either they figure out a way to make up that revenue or .... they see their numbers contract.
Recently read that tv companies are eager to buy as they can add programming of non game entertainment into regular tv week and add to streaming. Longer hours pregame shows. Radio also such as 610 running 100 hours of Texans in days before today's kickoff. The expanded hours of the combine and draft still adds mucho dolares.
 

paycheck71

Hall of Fame
Yep, the pandemic/BLM/Antifa will have no effect on the NFL. Just like the NBA.

Buries head in sand
And here's the real reason this thread was started. :)

I agree with those who think the cap hit due to covid will be spread over the next few years to avoid catastrophic cuts to both salaries and rosters, and then it'll be back to business as usual, up 10-15% every year.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
And here's the real reason this thread was started. :)

I agree with those who think the cap hit due to covid will be spread over the next few years to avoid catastrophic cuts to both salaries and rosters, and then it'll be back to business as usual, up 10-15% every year.

As I stated elsewhere - The Owners and NFLPA have already agreed to spread the losses over the next 4 seasons


Lots of Twits in this link on the subject.
the new deal between the NFL and NFLPA cannot allow the cap to go under $175 million next year. Of course, the salary cap for next season is contingent upon whether or not the NFL makes more revenue than expected in 2020.


Also, besides setting a certain amount that the cap can’t fall below, the league is going to spread the loss of revenue across the next four seasons

As for what the future holds - those increases rely upon finding a vaccine for Covid and the economy not cratering - for TV adds to be valuable , people have to have $$ to buy those products and people have to watch.

I'd like to see how this seasons ratings turn out compared to projections and prior years .... that'll tell us a lot about where the cap is headed beyond 2021.

To be honest , I could see their revenue declining .... the younger generations aren't so eaten up with the sports bug those previous .... https://socialunderground.com/2017/01/millennials-sports-less-viewers/
 


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