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2020 Pass Offense Predictions

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
That's probably a sign that they're playing from behind. 10 of the top 12 teams in passing attempts missed the playoffs last year. I'm all for being less predictable when they pass or run. And 2-3 extra passes in the right situations makes a lot sense. But throwing the ball around 40 times a game will get this team nowhere.
With DW4 at QB this is true.

With Mahomes not so much.
 

michaelm

vox nihili
I respect your opinion but completely disagree that Fuller will top DeAndre Hopkins previous years stats. Very very unlikely in my opinion.
I'm not saying your wrong but for perspective, Fuller averaged 13.7yds per catch last year in 11 games.

If he stays healthy for 16 games and has a career high in receptions of 90 (14 fewer than Hop last season) he'll end up with 1,233yds on the year.
90 catches would be a huge and admittedly unexpected increase, however
 

RGV82

Random guy
I'm not saying your wrong but for perspective, Fuller averaged 13.7yds per catch last year in 11 games.

If he stays healthy for 16 games and has a career high in receptions of 90 (14 fewer than Hop last season) he'll end up with 1,233yds on the year.
90 catches would be a huge and admittedly unexpected increase, however
This is based on if he played in the exact same offence as years past. Cobb, Cooks, David Johnson, Stills, etc. will all command more looks this year. Our offence won’t have a true #1 this year like we did with Hopkins.
 

michaelm

vox nihili
This is based on if he played in the exact same offence as years past. Cobb, Cooks, David Johnson, Stills, etc. will all command more looks this year. Our offence won’t have a true #1 this year like we did with Hopkins.
It wasn't really based on anything. Just a statistical observation.
I have no idea how the catches will be distributed. Nobody does for that matter.
So I wasn't predicting anything. Just stating the yards he would end up with if he catches 90 balls, however that might happen.
I will say this though. I think OB wants Cobbs to have the most receptions on the team. I think he's been trying to find a competent slot since he's been here
 

RGV82

Random guy
It wasn't really based on anything. Just a statistical observation.
I have no idea how the catches will be distributed. Nobody does for that matter.
So I wasn't predicting anything. Just stating the yards he would end up with if he catches 90 balls, however that might happen.
I will say this though. I think OB wants Cobbs to have the most receptions on the team. I think he's been trying to find a competent slot since he's been here
Randall Cobb is definitely a high reception, lower yardage guy. I definitely agree he will lead in receptions. Now it’s a matter of distributing passes between Cooks, Fuller, Stills, Fells, 2 receiving RBs, etc.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
The Texans threw 33 passes/game last year. The Chiefs, 36. Three additional passes/game from the Texans makes sense. 7 additional passes means things have gone horribly wrong.
Lol

I think you get the point of my post.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Yes, we know you're a hater. Driving the point home on every post is redundant.
The point is Mahomes is good enough to throw the ball 40 times in a game and win. DW4'S not. But pick out 1 game to try to make a point. Which you unknowingly did.

No hate here. I just know avg when I see it.
 

Lucky

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Staff member
The point is Mahomes is good enough to throw the ball 40 times in a game and win. DW4'S not. But pick out 1 game to try to make a point. Which you unknowingly did.

No hate here. I just know avg when I see it.
Mahomes is 5-3 when throwing 40+ passes. Good, but better when he is not throwing that much.

Watson is 3-3 when throwing 40+ passes. All 3 wins in come from behind or OT. Clearly, Billy doesn't game plan for passing the ball that often. And I will defend that. The offensive line has either been without talent, or lacked the playing time together. Still, Watson finds a way to get it done, leading the league the past 2 seasons in game winning drives with 10. As we all are aware of.

# Note - 10 game winning drives over 2 seasons is above average.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Mahomes is 5-3 when throwing 40+ passes. Good, but better when he is not throwing that much.

Watson is 3-3 when throwing 40+ passes. All 3 wins in come from behind or OT. Clearly, Billy doesn't game plan for passing the ball that often. And I will defend that. The offensive line has either been without talent, or lacked the playing time together. Still, Watson finds a way to get it done, leading the league the past 2 seasons in game winning drives with 10. As we all are aware of.

# Note - 10 game winning drives over 2 seasons is above average.
This is a fair assessment.

DW4's been good.

Mahomes has been better.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
It's not that black-n-white. Mahomes has been part of a much better organization from top to bottom. Watson has not been so lucky but the guy has proven one thing....he likes to win despite the odds being stacked against him. That's not homerism, that's just shear fact.
I happen to think both BOB/DW4 are part of the problem. Not part of the solution. It's pretty black and white for me Mahomes is the much more naturally gifted QB and is better at reading defenses too. Much more calm and accurate in the pocket. These are areas that DW4 needs to grow and he should be able to do this with the improved receiving corps.
 

Lucky

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Staff member
This is a fair assessment.

DW4's been good.

Mahomes has been better.
Mahomes is on a trajectory for becoming the greatest QB (at least statistically) of all time. That's an unattainable metric for almost any QB, other than Patrick.

The current GOAT is still Tom Brady. He's won more than a fistful of rings. But, other QBs have won Super Bowls during his career. Some, also great. Like Manning (Peyton) and Brees. Some, just in the right place in the right time (Brad Johnson and Nick Foles). None as great as Brady.

Deshaun Watson doesn't have to be better than Mahomes over his career to be a champion. He will have to have a better team, at some point. And be better than Mahomes on that given day. Like he was in KC last year in the regular season.

Watson is not as good as Mahomes. Nor is he as good as Russell Wilson, at the moment. But, that doesn't mean he will never be good enough to become a champion.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Mahomes is on a trajectory for becoming the greatest QB (at least statistically) of all time. That's an unattainable metric for almost any QB, other than Patrick.
I remember saying that about Jj... if not for injury, I’d have been wrong.
 

Mangler

All Pro
Mahomes is on a trajectory for becoming the greatest QB (at least statistically) of all time. That's an unattainable metric for almost any QB, other than Patrick.

The current GOAT is still Tom Brady. He's won more than a fistful of rings. But, other QBs have won Super Bowls during his career. Some, also great. Like Manning (Peyton) and Brees. Some, just in the right place in the right time (Brad Johnson and Nick Foles). None as great as Brady.

Deshaun Watson doesn't have to be better than Mahomes over his career to be a champion. He will have to have a better team, at some point. And be better than Mahomes on that given day. Like he was in KC last year in the regular season.

Watson is not as good as Mahomes. Nor is he as good as Russell Wilson, at the moment. But, that doesn't mean he will never be good enough to become a champion.
Yeah, never mind the fact Mahomes has probably the fastest receiving corps in the game, best TE, best special teams, decent defense, and a HC and OC who actually know what the hell they’re doing. Mahomes could have put up those numbers here, with O’Brien as HC/OC had we drafted him, right? Lol
 

RGV82

Random guy
The current GOAT is still Tom Brady. He's won more than a fistful of rings. But, other QBs have won Super Bowls during his career. Some, also great. Like Manning (Peyton) and Brees. Some, just in the right place in the right time (Brad Johnson and Nick Foles). None as great as Brady.
Trent Dilfer is the king of this category. Lol.
 

mussop

Hall of Fame
We don’t have a legit number one weapon at any skill position and basically a rookie play caller with a tyrant looking over his shoulder, yet some of you think we’re going to be good????????? Watson is being set up to fail but hey just be patient. Give it two or three years lol.

Watson will have to play on an MVP level for us to even make the playoffs.
 

mussop

Hall of Fame
Mahomes is on a trajectory for becoming the greatest QB (at least statistically) of all time. That's an unattainable metric for almost any QB, other than Patrick.

The current GOAT is still Tom Brady. He's won more than a fistful of rings. But, other QBs have won Super Bowls during his career. Some, also great. Like Manning (Peyton) and Brees. Some, just in the right place in the right time (Brad Johnson and Nick Foles). None as great as Brady.

Deshaun Watson doesn't have to be better than Mahomes over his career to be a champion. He will have to have a better team, at some point. And be better than Mahomes on that given day. Like he was in KC last year in the regular season.

Watson is not as good as Mahomes. Nor is he as good as Russell Wilson, at the moment. But, that doesn't mean he will never be good enough to become a champion.
Exactly! Th best QB doesn’t win The Super Bowl every year. Watson is more than capable talent wise to win a championship. A lot of things will have to go right and that’s not likely with this regime. He would have to go on a historic hot streak to carry this team to a super bowl. A hot streak like the one his rookie year before he got hurt. He’s definitely capable and he’s proved it but hoping for that while having to overcome OBs dead weight hanging around his neck pulling him down is asking an awful lot.

Hopefully McNair grows a brain and some balls and gets OB outta here before he wastes another great players career.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
We don’t have a legit number one weapon at any skill position and basically a rookie play caller with a tyrant looking over his shoulder, yet some of you think we’re going to be good????????? Watson is being set up to fail but hey just be patient. Give it two or three years lol.

Watson will have to play on an MVP level for us to even make the playoffs.
If DW4 fails it won't be because he was set up to fail.

This is just another in a long line of excuses.

Tell me out of the last 3 SB champs who was the WR1
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Exactly! Th best QB doesn’t win The Super Bowl every year. Watson is more than capable talent wise to win a championship. A lot of things will have to go right and that’s not likely with this regime. He would have to go on a historic hot streak to carry this team to a super bowl. A hot streak like the one his rookie year before he got hurt. He’s definitely capable and he’s proved it but hoping for that while having to overcome OBs dead weight hanging around his neck pulling him down is asking an awful lot.

Hopefully McNair grows a brain and some balls and gets OB outta here before he wastes another great players career.
Mediocrity is all he's proven so far

The question is, is he the QB of his rookie year, or is he the QB of the last 5 games of last year?

I think we both know where we stand.
 

LikeMike

Veteran
I happen to think both BOB/DW4 are part of the problem. Not part of the solution. It's pretty black and white for me Mahomes is the much more naturally gifted QB and is better at reading defenses too. Much more calm and accurate in the pocket. These are areas that DW4 needs to grow and he should be able to do this with the improved receiving corps.
There is a chance, that DW is more like Eli Manning - not as in similar skill sets, but in: their game is far from perfect and never will be, but both shine most in the biggest games and are winners. Peyton should have won more Super Bowls than his brother, but he often underperformed in big games.

You can win with DW and he can take a team on his back. But he probably won't ever be spoken of in the same sentence as Brady, Mahomes, Elway... and as others have said, he doesn't need to. I am perfectly fine with a guy that is special in important situations and up and down in other situations...
 

RGV82

Random guy
We don’t have a legit number one weapon at any skill position and basically a rookie play caller with a tyrant looking over his shoulder, yet some of you think we’re going to be good????????? Watson is being set up to fail but hey just be patient. Give it two or three years lol.

Watson will have to play on an MVP level for us to even make the playoffs.
Even though I do not agree that he is a legit number one weapon, David Johnson was brought in here to be one, and that seems to be the hope. He has been a legit number one in the past and is being paid to be one, so how do you judge a legit number one right now? Would you consider a guy like LeVeon Bell a legit number one, even though he missed an entire season then came back and had a horrible season in 2019 and hasn’t been good since 2017? I would argue that Watson and Johnson could be penciled in as number ones until proven otherwise in 2020.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
There is a chance, that DW is more like Eli Manning - not as in similar skill sets, but in: their game is far from perfect and never will be, but both shine most in the biggest games and are winners. Peyton should have won more Super Bowls than his brother, but he often underperformed in big games.

You can win with DW and he can take a team on his back. But he probably won't ever be spoken of in the same sentence as Brady, Mahomes, Elway... and as others have said, he doesn't need to. I am perfectly fine with a guy that is special in important situations and up and down in other situations...
Best case scenario
 

mws

Waterboy
Mahomes is on a trajectory for becoming the greatest QB (at least statistically) of all time. That's an unattainable metric for almost any QB, other than Patrick.

The current GOAT is still Tom Brady. He's won more than a fistful of rings. But, other QBs have won Super Bowls during his career. Some, also great. Like Manning (Peyton) and Brees. Some, just in the right place in the right time (Brad Johnson and Nick Foles). None as great as Brady.

Deshaun Watson doesn't have to be better than Mahomes over his career to be a champion. He will have to have a better team, at some point. And be better than Mahomes on that given day. Like he was in KC last year in the regular season.

Watson is not as good as Mahomes. Nor is he as good as Russell Wilson, at the moment. But, that doesn't mean he will never be good enough to become a champion.
Statistically Mahomes was a better QB in 2018 than in 2019.

2018: 12-4 Record, 383-580 66.0% 5097 Yards, 50 TDs, started 16 games avg 3.1 TDs per game, Point Differential 565-421 = +144, Lost AFCCG
2019: 12-4 Record, 319-484 65.9% 4031 Yards, 26 TDs, started 14 games avg 1.8 TDs per game, Point Differential 451-308 = +143, SB Winner

He threw 24 more Tds in 2018. Some of this may be due to his injury in 2019 but he averaged 3.1 Tds per game in 2018 & 1.8 Tds per game in 2019. The Chiefs scored 114 more points in 2018 than 2019.

Yet the Chiefs finished with the same record both years & only outscored their opponents by 1 point more in 2018.

This is because their defense played much better in 2019 (at least in points allowed per game).

In 2018 the Chiefs were 25th in points allowed per game (24.8).
In 2019 the Chiefs were 7th in points allowed per game (18.5).

Like the old saying goes 'defense wins championships' & football is a team sport.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Statistically Mahomes was a better QB in 2018 than in 2019.

2018: 12-4 Record, 383-580 66.0% 5097 Yards, 50 TDs, started 16 games avg 3.1 TDs per game, Point Differential 565-421 = +144, Lost AFCCG
2019: 12-4 Record, 319-484 65.9% 4031 Yards, 26 TDs, started 14 games avg 1.8 TDs per game, Point Differential 451-308 = +143, SB Winner

He threw 24 more Tds in 2018. Some of this may be due to his injury in 2019 but he averaged 3.1 Tds per game in 2018 & 1.8 Tds per game in 2019. The Chiefs scored 114 more points in 2018 than 2019.

Yet the Chiefs finished with the same record both years & only outscored their opponents by 1 point more in 2018.

This is because their defense played much better in 2019 (at least in points allowed per game).

In 2018 the Chiefs were 25th in points allowed per game (24.8).
In 2019 the Chiefs were 7th in points allowed per game (18.5).

Like the old saying goes 'defense wins championships' & football is a team sport.
This makes since,

Because Mahomes OL got hurt and then Mahomes got hurt last yr. It makes sense he didn't have as good a yr as he did in 2018.
 

SnakeEyes

Waterboy
The first 3 lines I sorta took seriously, then when I read 1200 receiving between the 2 RBs, I sorta thought he was joking, then when I read 6300 total from Watson.... well, that was it. Either way, starting a new thread for the sake of sarcasm is kinda pointless.... this sarcasm coulda easily fell under the Deshaun Watson thread. :stirpot: :splits:
But if we can get that and more rushing yards from the RBs it would be great. Maybe 1600... Yes my glass is half full I'm hoping Johnson is 100% and goes over 1k and then anything else is great.
 

zshawn10

All Pro
OC Tim Kelly on Zoom with media. Said Texans have a lot of explosive players w/unique skillsets. Said it's been exciting to see them come together and learn offense last few weeks.

— Drew Dougherty (@DoughertyDrew) May 20, 2020


Kelly: we’re in a unique situation w/virtual learning. But they’ve all been comfortable in front of the screen, and it’s been encouraging to see them learn.

Kelly: any time you take field w/multiple weapons in guys who can hurt defense in a lot of different ways, it’s an encouraging thing.

Kelly said he spent a lot of time in QB room last year working w/Deshaun Watson & co. Said Watson’s excited to get to work with the team on the field.

Kelly: Kahale Warring & rest of TE group are "doing a great job" working w/Coach Will Lawing. Expect for him to be on top of his game mentally and to compete for a job.

Kelly: I believe this is 1st time we’ve had all 5 starters back on O-line since we’ve been here. (When Tunsil-Scharping-Martin-Fulton-Howard started together, Texans were 5-1 in 2019.)

"It opens up the playcalling…We’re excited to have both of those guys back there."-OC Tim Kelly on having RB tandem of Duke Johnson and David Johnson.

Kelly on WR Will Fuller, V: All the conversations I’ve had with him have been encouraging.


#Texans OC Tim Kelly says the communication between players and coaches has been really "encouraging." Everyone seems more comfortable in front of a screen these days.

— Deepi Sidhu (@DeepSlant) May 20, 2020


Texans offensive coordinator and new play-caller Tim Kelly on Zoom: 'When you look at the people we have in our offensive unit, we have a lot of explosive players, guys with unique skillsets, guys who have produced at a high level in this league'

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) May 20, 2020


Tim Kelly: 'We have guys who have won consistently for a long time scattered throughout that room. Those guys have produced with a great mindset who are coming in with a chip on their shoulder.'

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) May 20, 2020


Tim Kelly on calling plays: 'Anytime you're doing something for the first time, there's going to be a learning process. Being able to take those lessons and be able to improve it's a good thing.'

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) May 20, 2020


Tim Kelly on offensive line: 'I believe it's the first time we've had all five starters back since we've been here. There's a lot of chemistry that goes into that position. Having all five of those guys back is vital. It's a good thing and it's something we're excited about.'

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) May 20, 2020


Kelly points out that this is the first full offseason with the team for many key players on offense like Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills, Duke Johnson. #Texans

— Deepi Sidhu (@DeepSlant) May 20, 2020


A lot of the stuff we’re covering right now, it’s the first time they’ve been able to really hear it in depth and it’s been really really good.

Getting Laremy and the line those training camp reps, those reps with the OL I can’t stress how important those are for an offensive line to come together and play as one unit so it’s a good thing we have all five coming back.


Tim Kelly on Deshaun Watson: 'Deshaun is excited. The communication we've had in this virtual offseason he's come in with a great mindset and really take grasp of the offense. He's doing a great job.'

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) May 20, 2020
Kelly: "As you’re calling plays or a part of the playcalling process, you want to make sure you’re seeing the game through the same set of eyes as the QB. That you have the same vision of the play when the play gets called. That is important as we continue to grow.

Yeah, there are things that Deshaun can get better at. We’ve talked about that with him. Coming out and being consistent. He’s set the bar high so it’s a challenge for him to be at that level every time he steps on the field.
 

OptimisticTexan

Go Texans 4-3...Post OB!!!!!
Agreed. Cooks and Fuller no way near number 1s. Cooks could have potential to be, but Fuller can barely hold up as a number 2.
The weapons are there if they stay healthy. More importantly, those weapons are there if OB completely takes his hands off the offense and allows Kelly and Watson to dictate the offensive flow in-game. I just don't want to see OB come running down the sideline to jack Kelly in the jaw b/c he's not conservative and predictabvle emnough for his liking......you know, putting up too nanny points.
 

RGV82

Random guy
The weapons are there if they stay healthy. More importantly, those weapons are there if OB completely takes his hands off the offense and allows Kelly and Watson to dictate the offensive flow in-game. I just don't want to see OB come running down the sideline to jack Kelly in the jaw b/c he's not conservative and predictabvle emnough for his liking......you know, putting up too nanny points.
Agreed. My point was there is no true #1 WR. The ball will be spread around with a few guys getting 600-1000 yards. There will be no 1400 yard guy.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Agreed. My point was there is no true #1 WR. The ball will be spread around with a few guys getting 600-1000 yards. There will be no 1400 yard guy.
Again if healthy Fuller ( who can run every route in the tree) is more than capable of being that number 1 receiver.

I really don’t understand why some of us find that hard to believe.

Shoots even Cooks can end of being the number one receiver.
 

Lucky

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Staff member
Again if healthy Fuller ( who can run every route in the tree) is more than capable of being that number 1 receiver.

I really don’t understand why some of us find that hard to believe.
His past results?
 

RGV82

Random guy
OK, but that would be unexpected. Fuller's career high receptions for a season was last year, at 49. A healthy 20% increase would net 60 catches. That's good for #2 or #3, but hardly a #1 WR. Not a reasonable expectation for Fuller.
100%. Especially now that we’re passing more to RBs and have a solid slot guy in Cobb commanding more passes, plus Cooks and Stills. Too many mediocre passing options to allow Watson to focus so much on Fuller.
 

RGV82

Random guy
You don’t know if we will be passing more to the running backs.
There would have been no reason to acquire David Johnson, a 3rd down receiving back specialist if we didn’t plan to use his strengths rather than keep Hyde at a much cheaper salary if we just wanted David Johnson as a 2 down back. Obviously with two 3rd down receiving back we are gonna be passing more to the RBs.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
There would have been no reason to acquire David Johnson, a 3rd down receiving back specialist if we didn’t plan to use his strengths rather than keep Hyde at a much cheaper salary if we just wanted David Johnson as a 2 down back. Obviously with two 3rd down receiving back we are gonna be passing more to the RBs.
Dude they acquired Lamar Miller and utilized him as a freaking power back. All because they acquired David doesn’t mean they’re about to change. Especially when they went out and got Cook and Cobb. They have Still, Fuller, Fells, and three other Tight ends. You do know there’s only one football right. You can dislike all you want but you don’t have any concrete evidence saying they will change up their offense like that. We will still see the same running plays. Duke will come in on certain plays like he did last season.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
There would have been no reason to acquire David Johnson, a 3rd down receiving back specialist if we didn’t plan to use his strengths rather than keep Hyde at a much cheaper salary if we just wanted David Johnson as a 2 down back. Obviously with two 3rd down receiving back we are gonna be passing more to the RBs.
While this statement makes sense, BOB has done alot of moves that doesn't make sense.

BTW, they did try to keep Hyde at a cheaper salary, but he thought (incorrectly) he was worth more.
 

RGV82

Random guy
Dude they acquired Lamar Miller and utilized him as a freaking power back. All because they acquired David doesn’t mean they’re about to change. Especially when they went out and got Cook and Cobb. They have Still, Fuller, Fells, and three other Tight ends. You do know there’s only one football right. You can dislike all you want but you don’t have any concrete evidence saying they will change up their offense like that. We will still see the same running plays. Duke will come in on certain plays like he did last season.
Well you don’t have evidence that they won’t, so at this point it’s obviously all speculative, “dude”.
 


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