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2019 Texans Only Blind Mock Draft

There’s always a flip side to the drafting RBs story. If you knew then what you know now, wouldn’t Alvin Kamara be a top 10 pick? Adrian Peterson went @ #7. Isn’t there a case he should have gone #1 overall?

Bottom line, it’s about the player. Not the position. Which player will have the biggest impact on your team over the next 4-5 seasons. That’s how I evaluate draft picks and really how teams should.
 
JB said:
There was only 1 RB taken in the top 5 that year... and calling Jamal Lewis a bust is a truly ignorant statement

None of the players you named was taken in the 2000 draft
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I've never brought up or mentioned Tom Brady.. He mentioned the Vernand Morency Draft to prove his point that teams aren't devaluing the RB position and that 1st round RB are far superior to the value you get in later rounds.
 
Wolf12339 said:
I've never brought up or mentioned Tom Brady.. He mentioned the Vernand Morency Draft to prove his point that teams aren't devaluing the RB position and that 1st round RB are far superior to the value you get in later rounds.
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He was replying to your comment about Brady so I figured that's where you were
 
Lucky said:
There’s always a flip side to the drafting RBs story. If you knew then what you know now, wouldn’t Alvin Kamara be a top 10 pick? Adrian Peterson went @ #7. Isn’t there a case he should have gone #1 overall?

Bottom line, it’s about the player. Not the position. Which player will have the biggest impact on your team over the next 4-5 seasons. That’s how I evaluate draft picks and really how teams should.
Click to expand...

Teams have each position valued to X amount of Draft currency or monetary amount. Its why positions such as QB, LT, WR, DE, CB make more money and get drafted higher on average then Running backs. Its because teams value those positions more and the Running back position is now being devalued. A passing play right now is more efficient and a better play call then calling a Run. So teams are increasing the value they put on positions that impact a passing play.

A real life example from the 2019 draft that teams will do. Is it better to take a RB in the 1st and another position later in round say 3 or take another position in round 1 and a RB in round 3.

Option 1
1st- Joshua Jacob
3rd- A LT like Dennis Daley

Option 2
1st- LT Jonah Williams
3rd- RB David Montgomery

Option 3- You have need at QB and RB. Is it better to take the QB round 1 or wait till round 3?
Joshua Jacobs and Jarret stidham OR Drew Lock and Miles Sander?

Smart teams will take Premium positions 1st as the difference between Joshua Jacobs and a RB picked in the 3rd round is less significant then a 1st round QB, LT or DE then a 3rd round player at those positions.
 
steelbtexan said:
Yes and I agree,

I just think Little and McGary would solve the OT issues which have plagued this team for the last 2 yrs for the nest 10 yrs.


If the draft fell this way, yes. Unless you told me Scharping will be there at 86. Howard will be long gone before 86 in the real draft.

I've got faith that one of Long (My favorite) Johnson, Dean, Bunting will be there at 86. Love/Layne will probably be gone.

It's very tempting to add a guy like Boykin in Rd. 3 and load up on offense if the draft fell this way. But I really like the Rd.3 CB's.
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I'm feeling a little better about CB's in this round after hearing thoughts from you draft dudes.
 
Wolf12339 said:
Teams have each position valued to X amount of Draft currency or monetary amount. Its why positions such as QB, LT, WR, DE, CB make more money and get drafted higher on average then Running backs. Its because teams value those positions more and the Running back position is now being devalued. A passing play right now is more efficient and a better play call then calling a Run. So teams are increasing the value they put on positions that impact a passing play.

A real life example from the 2019 draft that teams will do. Is it better to take a RB in the 1st and another position later in round say 3 or take another position in round 1 and a RB in round 3.

Option 1
1st- Joshua Jacob
3rd- A LT like Dennis Daley

Option 2
1st- LT Jonah Williams
3rd- RB David Montgomery

Option 3- You have need at QB and RB. Is it better to take the QB round 1 or wait till round 3?
Joshua Jacobs and Jarret stidham OR Drew Lock and Miles Sander?

Smart teams will take Premium positions 1st as the difference between Joshua Jacobs and a RB picked in the 3rd round is less significant then a 1st round QB, LT or DE then a 3rd round player at those positions.
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Dennis who? And stop crying over spilt milk
 
JB said:
Dennis who? And stop crying over spilt milk
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LT-Dennis Daley.... Nothing in that last post is crying. All it states is facts or real life options for Message board people to look at it and determine what they would do.
 
Lucky said:
There’s always a flip side to the drafting RBs story. If you knew then what you know now, wouldn’t Alvin Kamara be a top 10 pick? Adrian Peterson went @ #7. Isn’t there a case he should have gone #1 overall?

Bottom line, it’s about the player. Not the position. Which player will have the biggest impact on your team over the next 4-5 seasons. That’s how I evaluate draft picks and really how teams should.
Click to expand...

Absolutely this. All these gem rbs found in later rounds would all be taken much higher in any hypothetical redraft. Because no analytic says teams don't value a complete asset out of the backfield.
 
Also this whole debate is moot, as Jacobs is the new starting rb for the texans as of this draft. Woot woot.
 
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Wolf12339 said:
Teams have each position valued to X amount of Draft currency or monetary amount. Its why positions such as QB, LT, WR, DE, CB make more money and get drafted higher on average then Running backs. Its because teams value those positions more and the Running back position is now being devalued. A passing play right now is more efficient and a better play call then calling a Run. So teams are increasing the value they put on positions that impact a passing play.

A real life example from the 2019 draft that teams will do. Is it better to take a RB in the 1st and another position later in round say 3 or take another position in round 1 and a RB in round 3.

Option 1
1st- Joshua Jacob
3rd- A LT like Dennis Daley

Option 2
1st- LT Jonah Williams
3rd- RB David Montgomery

Option 3- You have need at QB and RB. Is it better to take the QB round 1 or wait till round 3?
Joshua Jacobs and Jarret stidham OR Drew Lock and Miles Sander?

Smart teams will take Premium positions 1st as the difference between Joshua Jacobs and a RB picked in the 3rd round is less significant then a 1st round QB, LT or DE then a 3rd round player at those positions.
Click to expand...

We have a real time running example, right now..

A
1. Jacobs
2. Little
3. McGary

B
1. Risner/Ford
2. Montgomery/Sanders/Harris
2. McGary/Little

With not a ton of separation between all of the OL beyond Jonah, Dillard, and Taylor ... I prefer option A.
 
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Mollywhopper said:
We have a real time running example, right now..

A
1. Jacobs
2. Little
3. McGary

B
1. Risner/Ford
2. Montgomery/Sanders/Harris
2. McGary/Little

With not a ton of separation between all of the OL beyond Jonah, Dillard, and Taylor ... I prefer option A.
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I agree. Piggybacking on your OT separation comment, curious if anyone has a take on the separation between McGary/Little and Tytus Howard/Max Sharping? I'm thinking that it probably isn't that much and would expect someone out of McGary/Little/Howard/Sharping to be there in the 3rd. I wouldn't be surprised if Little is one of the ones that makes it this far. I'm currently thinking it would be smart to wait til the 3rd for their OT (or for 1 of them if they're taking 2).
 
Max said:
I agree. Piggybacking on your OT separation comment, curious if anyone has a take on the separation between McGary/Little and Tytus Howard/Max Sharping? I'm thinking that it probably isn't that much and would expect someone out of McGary/Little/Howard/Sharping to be there in the 3rd. I wouldn't be surprised if Little is one of the ones that makes it this far. I'm currently thinking it would be smart to wait til the 3rd for their OT (or for 1 of them if they're taking 2).
Click to expand...

The only one that could possibly be there at #86 is Max Sharping. I've watch every player on your list and I don't believe McGary/Little or Howard will be there. I have doubts they will make it to pick 54.

McGary is an Excellent run blocker but has limitation in pass blocking.(Short arms, Slow Feet)

Little is the best pass blocker but is not good at Run blocking or finishing the play.

Howard has the best complete skill set out of all of them and I'd be surprised if he's not taken in the top 50.

An Interesting fact. From 2000-2016 51% of All-pro offensive lineman were taken in the 1st round.
 
Mollywhopper said:
We have a real time running example, right now..

A
1. Jacobs
2. Little
3. McGary

B
1. Risner/Ford
2. Montgomery/Sanders/Harris
2. McGary/Little

With not a ton of separation between all of the OL beyond Jonah, Dillard, and Taylor ... I prefer option A.
Click to expand...

I agree with you on the OL part. After the Big 3, there's not much difference between the next group. I have doubts that Little, McGary or Howard are there at #54. If the draft fell like this Mock is doing. I wouldn't complain with a Haul of.

1st -Jacobs
2nd-Little
2nd-Howard
3rd- Isiah Johnson or David Long
 
Wolf12339 said:
Teams have each position valued to X amount of Draft currency or monetary amount. Its why positions such as QB, LT, WR, DE, CB make more money and get drafted higher on average then Running backs. Its because teams value those positions more and the Running back position is now being devalued. A passing play right now is more efficient and a better play call then calling a Run. So teams are increasing the value they put on positions that impact a passing play.
Click to expand...
There's a lot to breakdown in this paragraph. Let me start by agreeing with your theory on premium positions. Yes, on average QBs, LTs, Edge rushers, and CBs go higher than RBs. There's no question. 3 QBs, 4 or 5 edges (depending on how Gary is viewed), 2 or 3 LTs, and a CB went before the 1st RB in this mock. But should the 4th QB always be viewed ahead of the 1st RB? or the 5th or 6th edge? or the 3rd or 4th LT? That's obviously not true. Even as the RB position has been "devalued", the 1st RB has gone off the board over the past 5 drafts around #15. In this mock, #23. That seems to be pretty good value.

A passing play is more efficient than a running play. Yet, teams still run the ball. Even Bill Belichick took a RB in the 1st round last year, despite an offense that leans heavily on the pass. Why is that? Because you have to look at the game inside the game. Having a running attack can take pressure off your QB, and open up the field. A running game can also help control the clock, keeping the opposing QB off the field, and your defense fresh. There's value in a good running game that isn't so obvious to a computer program running regression analysis.

Finally, a RB can be a significant part of the passing game. And isn't one of the major aspects of Jacobs game his ability to contribute as a receiver? Not only as an checkdown, but as a threat downfield? That's why guys like McCaffery, Elliott, and Barkley were actually values picks in the top 10. Their ability to impact the game on different levels.

The real reason RBs are not drafted as highly as years past is career lifespan. If you can get 4 or 5 years out of a RB, that's great. A 2nd contract? That's when a RB is really devalued. A LT might be better in year 8 than year 1. Rarely is that the case for a RB. It can be difficult to justify taking a player high that you're not likely to offer a 2nd contract. That's why teams often pass on RBs early. Not that they don't have current value. That their values wanes as time goes by.
 
The voting results for pick 3.86:

David Long - CB, Michigan (5) - @JB , @WolverineFan , @Mollywhopper , @santo , @steelbtexan
JoeJuan Williams - CB, Vanderbilt (2) - @beerlover , @Texansphan
Sean Bunting - CB, Western Michigan (1) - @Max
Amani Hooker - S, Iowa (1) - @gs27

David Long - CB, Michigan is the pick @ 3.86.

The following players are off the board from picks 87 - 160:

Saivion Smith CB Alabama
Joejuan Williams CB Vanderbilt
Kendall Sheffield CB Ohio State
Kris Boyd CB Texas
Mark Fields CB Clemson
Michael Jackson CB Miami
Montre Hartage CB Northwestern
Sean Bunting CB Central Michigan
Austin Bryant DE Clemson
Joe Jackson DE Miami
Daniel Wise DL Kansas
Gerald Willis DL Miami
Isaiah Buggs DL Alabama
Khalen Saunders DL Western Illinois
L.J. Collier DL TCU
Renell Wren DL Arizona State
Terry Beckner DL Missouri
Trysten Hill DL Central Florida
Ben Banogu EDG TCU
Maxx Crosby EDG Eastern Michigan
Oshane Ximines EDG Old Dominion
Ben Burr-Kirven LB Washington
Bobby Okereke LB Stanford
Chase Hansen LB Utah
David Long LB West Virginia
Drue Tranquill LB Notre Dame
Joe Giles-Harris LB Duke
Justin Hollins LB Oregon
Te'Von Coney LB Notre Dame
Vosean Joseph LB Florida
Connor McGovern OC Penn State
Ross Pierschbacher OC Alabama
Beau Benzschawel OG Wisconsin
Ben Powers OG Oklahoma
Dru Samia OG Oklahoma
Nate Davis OG Charlotte
Bobby Evans OT Oklahoma
Chuma Edoga OT USC
Dennis Daley OT South Carolina
Isaiah Prince OT Ohio State
Max Scharping OT Northern Illinois
Oli Udoh OT Elon
Tyler Roemer OT San Diego State
Tytus Howard OT Alabama State
Jarrett Stidham QB Auburn
Ryan Finley QB North Carolina State
Tyree Jackson QB Buffalo
Will Grier QB West Virginia
Bryce Love RB Stanford
Damien Harris RB Alabama
Justice Hill RB Oklahoma State
Rodney Anderson RB Oklahoma
Amani Hooker S Iowa
Marquise Blair S Utah
Mike Bell S Fresno State
Mike Edwards S Kentucky
Sheldrick Redwine S Miami
Ugochukwu Amadi S Oregon
Alize Mack TE Notre Dame
Drew Sample TE Washington
Josh Oliver TE San Jose State
Kahale Warring TE San Diego State
Zach Gentry TE Michigan
Andy Isabella WR Umass
Anthony Johnson WR Buffalo
Antoine Wesley WR Texas Tech
DaMarkus Lodge WR Mississippi
Darius Slayton WR Auburn
Dillon Mitchell WR Oregon
Hunter Renfrow WR Clemson
Jakobi Meyers WR North Carolina State
KeeSean Johnson WR Fresno State
Stanley Morgan Jr. WR Nebraska
Terry Godwin WR Georgia

The Texans are back on the clock at pick 5.161 until 8 PM, 4/19.
 
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Give me Tim Harris CB Virginia

I wanted Boykin and didn't see him on the board. But I'm sure he's gone.

If I missed him give me Boykin if not Harris.
 
Lucky said:
Miles Boykin WR Notre Dame is still available.
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Give me Boykin. Great WFV replacement when WFV gets hurt and misses time again. Even if WFV stays healthy Boykin is a good RZ target with his size an VJ in addition to his size.

Boykin will probably be gone in the 3rd but if he is there just take hm and thank your Lucky stars that the draft fell this way. This is the optimal draft for the Texans.
 
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infantrycak said:
Since you point so easily, how many 3 time all pros were outside the 1st?

Or try this, how many teams were built on rushing and chose to act like RBs are generic?

You spewed without merit of content. Exactly like anaytics applied to football. There aren't 5 guys playing 2 ways. Everyone doesn't get an at bat.

In the NFL, this mother fu@cker may be the greatest of all time without one of your numbers:
download-850x478.jpeg
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Brady was overlooked.
He did have a couple other things going for him - great HC and usually very good olines.
beerlover said:
think were lacking safety, if he’s not already selected? Go with

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida
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If he is still on the board, hail yair!
 
Isaiah Johnson, CB, Houston. If Texans like Roby, former 1St rd selection now a Texan via free agency then they’re gonna love Johnson. David Long would be more of a replacement for Kareem Jackson, even safety eventually while Isaiah is your edge or boundary corner with size 6-2 208 and 4.40 speed.
 
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Here's the top 45 unselected prospects rated by nfl.com

Jamel Dean 5.77 CB r-Junior
Anthony Nelson 5.74 DE r-Junior
Iman Marshall 5.69 CB Senior
Michael Jordan 5.69 G Junior
Jalen Hurd 5.69 WR Senior
Dexter Williams 5.68 RB Senior
Miles Boykin 5.67 WR Senior
Germaine Pratt 5.63 LB r-Senior
Jordan Brown 5.63 CB Senior
Kingsley Keke 5.61 DE Senior
Ryquell Armstead 5.6 RB Senior
Alexander Mattison 5.59 RB Junior
Diontae Johnson 5.59 WR r-Junior
Isaiah Johnson 5.59 CB r-Senior
Armon Watts 5.58 DT Senior
Marvell Tell 5.56 S Senior
Lamont Gaillard 5.56 C r-Senior
Trayveon Williams 5.54 RB Junior
Cameron Smith 5.54 LB Senior
Foster Moreau 5.53 TE Senior
Shareef Miller 5.53 EDGE r-Junior
Jalen Jelks 5.53 EDGE r-Senior
Trey Pipkins 5.51 T r-Senior
Corey Ballentine 5.51 CB r-Senior
Isaac Nauta 5.5 TE Junior
Phil Haynes 5.5 G r-Senior
Travis Fulgham 5.5 WR r-Senior
Shaq Calhoun 5.5 G r-Senior
Keelan Doss 5.49 WR Senior
Jordan Brailford 5.48 EDGE r-Junior
Olabisi Johnson 5.47 WR Senior
Derwin Gray 5.47 T r-Senior
T.J. Edwards 5.47 LB r-Senior
Devine Ozigbo 5.46 RB Senior
Gary Jennings 5.46 WR Senior
John Cominsky 5.46 DE r-Senior
Jahlani Tavai 5.45 LB Senior
Malik Gant 5.45 S r-Junior
Alex Wesley 5.44 WR Junior
Cody Barton 5.44 LB Senior
Karan Higdon 5.43 RB Senior
Myles Gaskin 5.43 RB Senior
Evan Worthington 5.42 S r-Senior
Kaden Smith 5.42 TE Junior
David Sills 5.42 WR Senior
 
Anthony Nelson.

Not a chance he's available this late in the actual draft but can't pass on him here in this scenario. He's got the size, the athleticism, and NFL-ready technique.

He's a better player than Rashan Gary IMO.
 
WolverineFan said:
Anthony Nelson.

Not a chance he's available this late in the actual draft but can't pass on him here in this scenario. He's got the size, the athleticism, and NFL-ready technique.

He's a better player than Rashan Gary IMO.
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Yeah, it’s not a perfect mock. But, there are no perfect drafts, either. I didn’t see that he would be available at this point until I made the last list of drafted players. A handful of 2nd day types still available.
 
Lucky said:
Yeah, it’s not a perfect mock. But, there are no perfect drafts, either. I didn’t see that he would be available at this point until I made the last list of drafted players. A handful of 2nd day types still available.
Click to expand...

Evident to me Texans need to select a safety no later than second, corner can be had both 3rd-5th round and same could be said about RB, who would have impact. So thanks for hosting this exercise it really helps sort out prioritizing need and fit for Texan roster 2019.

So here we are, 5th rd. Do we select a player knowing he won’t be there in actual draft or make a selection on who could be there and fits with what’s already been done?
 
Just from taking one opinion after the other from fans who say we need a corner no later than the second or a ot in the first or a safety no later than the second or an edge no later than the third, etc, etc - it appears in total that we need a whole new roster no later than the fourth.

C'mon Gaine, the fans have spoken.
 
I'll go with Miles Boykin.
Honorable mention goes to Jaylen Jelks here though.
Man, if Trayveon Williams RB is still on the board next weekend, I pray they take him. Has he-uge upside.
 
I'll go with Jamal Dean... love the size/speed combo

Concerned about the injury history

Tempted to go IDL
 
beerlover said:
O
So here we are, 5th rd. Do we select a player knowing he won’t be there in actual draft or make a selection on who could be there and fits with what’s already been done?
Click to expand...
There’s always a player or two that everyone has going earlier that slips. Maurice Hurst and Tyrell Crosby were in every 2nd round mock, and both went in the 5th. Just take the player you feel is best for the team.
 
The voting results for pick 5.161:

Miles Boykin WR Notre Dame (3) - @steelbtexan , @santo , @Texansphan
Isaiah Johnson CB Houston (2) - @beerlover , @TheRealJoker
Jamel Dean CB Auburn - (2) @Max , @JB
Derrek Thomas CB Baylor - (1) @Wolf12339
Anthony Nelson DE Iowa - (1) @WolverineFan


Miles Boykin - WR, Notre Dame is the pick @ 5.161.

The following players are off the board from picks 162 - 194:

Dontavius Russell DL Auburn
Isaiah Johnson CB Houston
Anthony Nelson DE Iowa
Chris Slayton DL Syracuse
Demarcus Christmas DL Florida State
Kingsley Keke DL Texas A&M
Michael Dogbe DL Temple
Shareef Miller EDG Penn State
Gary Johnson LB Texas
Germaine Pratt LB North Carolina State
Jahlani Tavai LB Hawaii
Kendall Joseph LB Clemson
Sutton Smith LB Northern Illinois
Tre Watson LB Maryland
Ulysees Gilbert LB Akron
Lamont Gaillard OC Georgia
Bunchy Stallings OG Kentucky
Michael Jordan OG Ohio State
Calvin Anderson OT Texas
Mitch Hyatt OT Clemson
Tyree St. Louis OT Miami
Jordan Ta'amu QB Mississippi
Ryquell Armstead RB Temple
Trayveon Williams RB Texas A&M
Delvon Randall S Temple
Evan Worthington S Colorado
Lukas Denis S Boston College
Malik Gant S Marshall
Caleb Wilson TE UCLA
Foster Moreau TE LSU
Kaden Smith TE Stanford
Cody Thompson WR Toledo
Travis Fulgham WR Old Dominion

The Texans are on the clock until 8PM 4/22.
 
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Jamel Dean again. 6'1, 206lbs 4.3 40 CB in the 6th round. Yeah the knee but he ran the 4.3 on that knee.
 
Since we all know who this selection will be, take Dean too, anybody have thoughts about Porter Gustin, OLB, USC?

 
beerlover said:
Since we all know who this selection will be, take Dean too, anybody have thoughts about Porter Gustin, OLB, USC?
Click to expand...

Would prefer an IDL presence... who will be left R6?

Watkins will need a rotational piece. I really think the Texans address this need earlier
 
JB said:
Would prefer an IDL presence... who will be left R6?

Watkins will need a rotational piece. I really think the Texans address this need earlier
Click to expand...

With Dunn, Blackson and former 4th rounder Watkins along with Weaver being a good coach that can develop his DL I don’t see a need to spend high draft capital at the position unless there’s great value. The Texans have a track record of success with DL players. Much more so than other positions on the roster.
 
TheRealJoker said:
With Dunn, Blackson and former 4th rounder Watkins along with Weaver being a good coach that can develop his DL I don’t see a need to spend high draft capital at the position unless there’s great value. The Texans have a track record of success with DL players. Much more so than other positions on the roster.
Click to expand...

Aren't Dunn and Blackson more NT run stuffer type guys?
 
JB said:
Aren't Dunn and Blackson more NT run stuffer type guys?
Click to expand...

They are but Watkins was a good pass rush prospect coming out that was stuck behind Covington in rotation.

I’m more confident that Weaver has developed him to be that interior rush threat and maybe a late round/udfa pick than spending high end draft capital at the position. I think the high picks need to go where the team does not have a track record of success.
 
The voting results for pick 6.195:

Jamel Dean - CB, Auburn (5) - @Max , @JB , @santo , @steelbtexan , @TheRealJoker


Jamel Dean - CB, Auburn is the pick @ 6.195.

The following players are off the board between picks 196 - 219

Derrek Thomas CB Baylor
Cortez Broughton DL Cincinnati
Greg Gaines DL Washington
Ricky Walker DL Virginia Tech
Malik Carney EDG North Carolina
Wyatt Ray EDG Boston College
BJ Blunt LB McNeese State
Sione Takitaki LB BYU
Terrill Hanks LB New Mexico State
TJ Edwards LB Wisconsin
Tre Lamar LB Clemson
Nick Linder OC Indiana
Lester Cotton OG Alabama
Ryan Pope OT San Diego State
Alexander Mattison RB Boise State
Darwin Thompson RB Utah State
Mike Weber RB Ohio State
Darius West S Kentucky
DCota Dixon S Wisconsin
JoJo McIntosh S Washington
Marvell Tell S USC
Keenan Brown TE Texas State
Jalen Hurd WR Baylor
Tyre Brady WR Marshall

The Texans are on the clock with pick 7.220 until 8PM 4/23.
 
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