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2018 Projected Draft Picks

JB said:
So I'm thinking that while OL should be the target with the Texans first pick, it may very well be pass rusher or DB. Anyone to look forward to there? How will FA affect the choice?
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Some guys at OLB that I am familiar with at this time:

Josh Sweat, FSU
Cece Jefferson, Florida
Uchenna Nwosu, USC

They may all go higher, even as high as round 1, but could also slide.
 
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bah007 said:
Connor Williams reminds me of Lane Johnson (hopefully without the PEDs).

Very similar size. Great athlete, but likely below Johnson in that category. Former TE. Great college success. Better run blocker than pass protector. Great against size, struggles against speed.

I think he has all the tools to be a franchise LT. But there will be a steep curve. I think he has to start out at RT until he improves at blocking speed coming off the edge.

Worth a day one pick based on ability and potential but not a day one starter at LT.
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but would you trade up for him? Would it not take a 2019 high pick combined with 2018 picks? If he fell into top of round two, I don't think our two late thirds will be enough. I would not trade.
 
steelbtexan said:
Depends on how KJo looks when he gets back. Clowney/Mercilus/McKinney can all rush the passer. I also think Kamalu has great promise as a pass rusher.

If Ricky goes defense with his highest picks, I hope he goes CB/S and gets some guys who are differencemakers and can cover a crossing route.
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Agree on Johnson, he needs to return to his rookie year and avoid injury. Key I think no one has mentioned recently is corner Joseph. 16 tackles and 2 INTs is pretty good for old man. If Johnson returns healthy, QBs are going to have to decide who to go against. I would not be shocked if Joseph is offered an extension later. Clowney remains a concern due to health so I do want a OLB but maybe later. On my mock I have us selecting safety round three. I am predicting Brown will not only do his job but will be here for all 16 in 2018. Right tackle play for remainder of season impacts what we do in 2018. I could also see a guard selected if he could start soon and play either side.
 
DB is our biggest need and has actually been a big need that has gone mostly unaddressed for a few years now. We have no impact players and zero depth in the secondary.
 
badboy said:
but would you trade up for him? Would it not take a 2019 high pick combined with 2018 picks? If he fell into top of round two, I don't think our two late thirds will be enough. I would not trade.
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I would defintely trade up if you told me I could get a 10 yr starter at LT, who can play RT for a couple of yrs while learning the ways of NFL.
 
WolverineFan said:
DB is our biggest need and has actually been a big need that has gone mostly unaddressed for a few years now. We have no impact players and zero depth in the secondary.
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I agree, hitting on an UDFA like Bouye helped mask this drafting deficiency. Now that Bouye's gone the light of how little talent the secondary has is shining brightly.
 
The Texans currently have 5 picks in the 2018 draft prior to the compensatory picks awarded.

2 - 3rds
1 - 4th
1 - 6th
1 - 7th

It’s reasonable to assume the Texans will receive a 3rd for Bouye.
 
There is a link somewhere on MB to some guy saying he has us getting four comps: a third, a 4th, a 6th and a 7th. That would be good but the article IIRC had us with only Seattle's 3rd for Brown and a possible comp 3rd for Bouye. He must have forgotten about our own 3rd. Another link that some of us have used shows a third and two sixth round comps.
 
badboy said:
There is a link somewhere on MB to some guy saying he has us getting four comps: a third, a 4th, a 6th and a 7th. That would be good but the article IIRC had us with only Seattle's 3rd for Brown and a possible comp 3rd for Bouye. He must have forgotten about our own 3rd. Another link that some of us have used shows a third and two sixth round comps.
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There's this, from 11/4 ...

Assessing Texans future NFL draft and compensatory picks
Round 3

Round 3 (via Seattle)

Round 3 Compensatory (A.J. Bouye)

Round 4

Round 6

Round 6 Compensatory (John Simon)

Round 6 Compensatory (Quintin Demps)

Round 7

Round 7 Compensatory (Don Jones/Oday Aboushi)
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Don't have the first clue how accurate an outlook this is though.
 
Mollywhopper I just don't get how they think Demps is only worth a 6th. Last season with Houston he had 38 Ts, 9 PBUs and 6 INTs. Only 3 games with Bears (broken arm) but that IMO should not push him down to 6th round as a comp.

Demps was one of the Bears' prized offseason acquisitions, brought in after intercepting six passes during the 2016 season, the second-highest total in the NFL./QUOTE]http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-bears/another-injury-bears-quintin-demps-has-broken-arm
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badboy said:
Mollywhopper I just don't get how they think Demps is only worth a 6th. Last season with Houston he had 38 Ts, 9 PBUs and 6 INTs. Only 3 games with Bears (broken arm) but that IMO should not push him down to 6th round as a comp.
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They're going, by and large, off of his contract..
 
Mollywhopper said:
They're going, by and large, off of his contract..
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I agree but that's only part of the criteria. He was a starter for us at safety and his 6 INTs should trump difference in PBUs Demps 9 and Obouye's 16. I can see him not worth a 3rd comp but 6th?
 
badboy said:
I agree but that's only part of the criteria. He was a starter for us at safety and his 6 INTs should trump difference in PBUs Demps 9 and Obouye's 16. I can see him not worth a 3rd comp but 6th?
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Where are you getting that his final stats here are of particular significance?
 
Mollywhopper said:
I don't think it matters what you or I personally think is significant. I'm asking where you're getting that those stats are any significant part of the comp pick formula.
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OH..I thought productivity was a part of formula. I get $ is part but how can stats not be?
 
badboy said:
OH..I thought productivity was a part of formula. I get $ is part but how can stats not be?
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As I'm sure you know stats can be deceptive. A guy's real value is in what a new squad is willing to pay him. Beyond that his playing time with his new team and postseason honors are then taken into account. Demps doesn't register squat with the Bears on these fronts. Hence, a 6th.
 
Mollywhopper said:
As I'm sure you know stats can be deceptive. A guy's real value is in what a new squad is willing to pay him. Beyond that his playing time with his new team and postseason honors are then taken into account. Demps doesn't register squat with the Bears on these fronts. Hence, a 6th.
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Well to be fair, Demps has only played three games with Chicago. I do understand about deceptions but little is said about quality of sacks for Watt or Clowney which are loss of down. INTs regardless of how ball gets into Demps hands are change of possession. I think a players value is what he does on field (again 9 PBUs and 6 INTs). Any who..thanks for discussion.
 
badboy said:
Well to be fair, Demps has only played three games with Chicago. I do understand about deceptions but little is said about quality of sacks for Watt or Clowney which are loss of down. INTs regardless of how ball gets into Demps hands are change of possession. I think a players value is what he does on field (again 9 PBUs and 6 INTs). Any who..thanks for discussion.
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I don't understand what you're disputing here. I'm not trying to re-write the comp pick formula.
 
badboy said:
Well to be fair, Demps has only played three games with Chicago. I do understand about deceptions but little is said about quality of sacks for Watt or Clowney which are loss of down. INTs regardless of how ball gets into Demps hands are change of possession. I think a players value is what he does on field (again 9 PBUs and 6 INTs). Any who..thanks for discussion.
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It is based mostly on what he is doing now, not what he did in the past
 
In regards to COMP Picks, these are my projections:

Bouye = RD3 **5 Year 67.5M Contract with 26M Guaranteed**

Simon = RD5 **3 Year 13.5M Contract with 5.5M Guaranteed / Has started and shined as the colts starting OLB. performance and decent contract might get this bumped to a RD4.**

Demps = RD7 **3 Year 13.5M Contract with 5M Guaranteed / Injured during 3rd game. IR'd but is eligible to return in Week 11. New NFL rule. This might allow him to play 9 games for the season. If he can have a productive final 6 games (provided the Bears activate him), then maybe the Texans could see that COMP Pick elevate to a RD5. Might've stayed in the realm of a RD4 had he stayed healthy**

Aboushi = RD7 **1 Year 975K with 200K Guaranteed / He's been the Seahawks starting RT since Week 3 and projects to finish the season as their starting RT. This would represent good points for the Texans who might see this improve the COMP Pick to RD6. I'd also be curious...in the event he plays well enough that the Seahawks give him a new contract this season so they don't have to compete for his services in the off-season....how this could affect the COMP Pick valuation.

I think the Texans will get their 4 COMP Picks since, barring a setback, Demps will return to the Active Roster in Week 11. I hope this works out since this team needs all the help they can get for the 2018 NFL Draft.
 
Only 32 comp picks are awarded. And while Aboushi would normally return a 7th round comp pick, he is unlikely to be a top 32 signing via the comp pick formula. Therefore, I see the Texans coming away with 3 comp picks (Bouye, Simon, Demps).
 
Lucky said:
Only 32 comp picks are awarded. And while Aboushi would normally return a 7th round comp pick, he is unlikely to be a top 32 signing via the comp pick formula. Therefore, I see the Texans coming away with 3 comp picks (Bouye, Simon, Demps).
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What is the maximum number of comp picks allowed for a team? Is it 3 or 4?
 
Lucky said:
4 is the maximum one team can be alloted.
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Thanks! Four comp picks would be nice but I'm thinking, like you, it will probably only be 3 for the Texans. However many picks they do get I just hope they use them well. Don't blow it like they did in 2013 with the 3rd round comp pick for losing Mario Williams. They picked Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU! We all remember how that turned out!
 
Insideop said:
Thanks! Four comp picks would be nice but I'm thinking, like you, it will probably only be 3 for the Texans. However many picks they do get I just hope they use them well. Don't blow it like they did in 2013 with the 3rd round comp pick for losing Mario Williams. They picked Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU! We all remember how that turned out!
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2013 was a notoriously terrible draft for the league as a whole. Hard to use that as a relative example of blowing things.
 
Mollywhopper said:
2013 was a notoriously terrible draft for the league as a whole. Hard to use that as a relative example of blowing things.
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Yes, I do recall it was a bad draft for the league overall, but it's the only example I could use since the Texans don't get to many (Just one so far!) 3rd round comp picks! I don't think Montgomery even made it half way through the season before he was thrown off the team. I think he only played a few snaps for the Texans and that was it. So essentially they got nothing for Mario Williams! These opportunities don't come around very often so I just think they need to make the most of it.
 
Insideop said:
Yes, I do recall it was a bad draft for the league overall, but it's the only example I could use since the Texans don't get to many (Just one so far!) 3rd round comp picks! I don't think Montgomery even made it half way through the season before he was thrown off the team. I think he only played a few snaps for the Texans and that was it. So essentially they got nothing for Mario Williams! These opportunities don't come around very often so I just think they need to make the most of it.
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I think the whole scouting dept other than RS was fired for that one... or should have been
 
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