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2017 NFL Draft - 1st Round discussion thread

kiwitexansfan

kiwitexansfan

Hall of Fame
With the draft getting closer let's get a thread started where we can discuss and speculate about what's going to happen for the Texans and the rest of the NFL.
 
zshawn10 said:
Yea posted it earlier in the other thread; hope it happens but it comes down to the Jags, Jets, Bears, SF, Bills, and ARI not taking Watson first
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I'be heard most NFL teams have Watson with a 3rd grade.

I would not be surprised if Trubisky and Watson both make it to 25.

Mahomes and Kizer might go before them.

Gonna be an interesting draft.
 
And then there is the fact that we might not even want a QB.

Maybe the OT/S smokescreen is actually the truth.

Anyone think Garrett won't be #1
 
If you think someone's the guy, make sure you get them. Whether it's QB or anyone else. Get the guys with the strongest motor and intelligence. They're all physically gifted. They're ******* football players. Don't draft any shitheads.

That's about it. Those are my requirements.
 
kiwitexansfan said:
First rumor of note is that Texans and Ravens have a deal in place for us to move up to take Watson if he is there at 16.
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I'm not sure Watson is the answer, I'm not sold on him as much as others here are, I'm more of a Mahomes fan. But a trade up in the draft for a QB would not surprise me at all. I smell desperation/fear coming from Kirby Dr. as McNair desperately wants a new QB to erase the Osweiler memory from fans minds, be the face of the franchise, and offer hope to the fan base that desperately wants a QB because HOPE sells tickets, jerseys, posters, beer, and hotdogs. Let's "hope" they make the right decision.
 
Who ever we pick, we need to make sure they have a history of injuries and there is someone better than them (at their position) available to take instead. We need to keep up appearances.
 
potentially stupid question:

will the draft be available for streaming live for other countries?
 
kiwitexansfan said:
Firstrowsports will have streams of the second kind I imagine.

It's how I watch Texans and Rockets.
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turns out there's a free trial version of game pass available right now, I might even consider joining if it means getting a good stream

sadly all the times I've purchased gamepass the quality was so low I had to abandon the idea of using it
 
Sigma said:
turns out there's a free trial version of game pass available right now, I might even consider joining if it means getting a good stream

sadly all the times I've purchased gamepass the quality was so low I had to abandon the idea of using it
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Try reddit.com/r/nflstreams there's a good chance they have links to HD streams.
 
Mary Kay Cabot, the Cleveland Browns beat writer, is reporting that the Browns are expected to take Myles Garrett with the 1st overall pick.

Don't know whether to be happy that A&M has a #1 overall pick, or sad that Myles is doomed to go to Cleveland.
 
kiwitexansfan said:
Are we sold Garrett is good?

You A&M guys is his 'only produces against scrubs' knock valid??
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He had a crappy season this year because of a nagging ankle injury, it colored his production from the Arkansas game onwards (so basically end of September onwards).

The laziness argument is also bad, A&M's defense played more downs than the vast majority of college defenses last year and you could tell the D-line would get gassed because we had nothing behind Garrett and Daeshon Hall. The interior DL was fine because we have good depth there, but at DE there was a serious drop off in production behind the starters. and Garrett played regardless of injury knowing he was going to be a high pick in the NFL draft. Didn't have to, could have sat out, but didn't.

He definitely needs a lot of polishing against the run, though.

"Not only did the Aggies lead the SEC in number of defensive snaps, the unit was on the field for more plays than any team in the Power 5: 974. Oregon (971 plays) and Texas (955), two other teams that struggled defensively, ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, among Power 5 teams in defensive snap total."
 
Thorn said:
Who ever we pick, we need to make sure they have a history of injuries and there is someone better than them (at their position) available to take instead. We need to keep up appearances.
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Just replace snickers with mangoes :)




I understand what you're saying though, I too have lost faith in this FO. Trading away a 2nd round pick and then doing nothing with the cap space was the straw that broke the camel's back.
 
Wolf6151 said:
I'm not sure Watson is the answer, I'm not sold on him as much as others here are, I'm more of a Mahomes fan. But a trade up in the draft for a QB would not surprise me at all. I smell desperation/fear coming from Kirby Dr. as McNair desperately wants a new QB to erase the Osweiler memory from fans minds, be the face of the franchise, and offer hope to the fan base that desperately wants a QB because HOPE sells tickets, jerseys, posters, beer, and hotdogs. Let's "hope" they make the right decision.
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Thankfully, OB has distanced himself from this draft. This draft is squarely on Smith.
 
DocBar said:
The exception that proves the rule.
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Round 1

The first round has delivered a 47.6% hit rate: Less than one out of two of these will have a top-12 QB/TE or top-24 RB/WR PPR scoring season. This has trended to seven of 12 hits over the examined time period, or 58% success.



If you remove ‘one-season only’ players (2010-2014) like Jahvid Best, C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson, Robert Griffin III and the like, the round-one hit rate goes down to 30%. Basically 1 of 3 first-round rookie picks have become dynasty assets with more than one top season.
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http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/71382/446/a-look-at-rookie-draft-picks

Granted, it's significantly easier to hit in Round 1 than the other rounds:

Round 2



A significant drop from the first round, but still roughly one of three second-round picks, or 31% have produced at least one countable season since 2010. Keep in mind some took several years to get there. Lamar Miller, Eric Decker and Davante Adams did not hit until their 3rd year. Golden Tate and Emmanuel Sanders did not hit until year five.



Round 3 or Later



The later rounds are very low percentage shots. Only 24 of 336 rookies, or 7% drafted in the third round or later actually hit. There have been some absolute superstars to come out of late-round picks, though; Antonio Brown and T.Y. Hilton and most recently Dak Prescott. Adding late-round picks to a trade shouldn’t be considered an easy deal maker if you’re on the receiving end based on the minimal hit rate.



The following tables show rookie draft ADP going back seven seasons and how each round finished yearly. If there’s blank space following a player’s name, it means they never finished in the top-12 QB/TE or top-24 RB/WR in PPR scoring. This doesn’t mean certain players haven’t put up relevant production for several games. It just highlights the true dynasty assets.
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.

I still wouldn't call it "easy" overall. Maybe comparatively easy.
 
If Cleveland came away with a top pass rusher and franchise QB in one draft, they would take it! So look for them to trade up from 12.
 
I think the pick might be Chris Wormley DE Michigan, there's a rumor he will be a surprise first round pick, we are in the right spot for him at 25, they met 3 times with the guy during the draft process more than any other prospect. So might be time to get ready for him.801BE8F6-B3C7-4B3E-8812-E67868BB2137-6519-00000566352C537E.jpeg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
jradMIT said:
I think the pick might be Chris Wormley DE Michigan, there's a rumor he will be a surprise first round pick, we are in the right spot for him at 25, they met 3 times with the guy during the draft process more than any other prospect. So might be time to get ready for him.View attachment 1487


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Where would he line up?? 5tech or OLB?
 
TheMatrix31 said:
I don't think so. You don't have 30 stars coming into every sport every first round.
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No you don't, but you do in the 1st 64. There's not a ton of difference between 1 and 2. The VAST majority of Smith's picks have been on defense, where he played.
 
Carr Bombed said:

Just replace snickers with mangoes :)




I understand what you're saying though, I too have lost faith in this FO. Trading away a 2nd round pick and then doing nothing with the cap space was the straw that broke the camel's back.
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I'm not taking a damn bit of this pre draft stuff seriously. I've seen to many picks turn out to be sh!t, and very late round and UDFAs turn out to be great starters. And everything in-between of course. I'll wait until after they pick to praise, criticize and second guess them. :lol:
 
DocBar said:
What does that have to do with Cleveland? We were talking about a specific entity vs a 32 team league, so statistics are skewed. Odds of an NFL team hitting on a player are much different than a specific team hitting on a player.
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I wasn't referring to Cleveland with that post. It was addressing your assertion that first round picks are easy to nail. I was showing that they're easier, in comparison to later rounds, but not easy by any means if only 1/3 of first round picks end up becoming the player you expect them to be.

Cleveland is horrible beyond the league average of hit/miss on first round picks.
 
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James Palmer ✔ @JamesPalmerTV
Those close to Patrick Mahomes think he will land in KC, Houston or Arizona.
5:00 PM – 27 Apr 2017
 
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