2015 NFL Draft Quarterback Passing Chart Project

[Playoffs]

2015 NFL Draft Quarterback Passing Chart Project

The passing chart project for the 2015 NFL Draft is back and better than ever, featuring 14 of the best quarterback prospects this time around!

Samples of at least eight games were taken for all 14 passers, but most have between 10 and 12 charted games. In all, 150 games were charted from the 2014 college football season. Those plus 6 games from 2013 for Sean Mannion and 4 games from 2013 for Taylor Kelly make up all of the cumulative statistics found within this study.

My specific process for charting passes can be found at the following link along with the actual charts themselves, game scores by prospect, and comparative statistics from 2013 to 2014 for four of the top QB prospects in this class...

PASSING CHART DOC

Cumulative statistics were gathered across 21 different categories. Seven of them are completion percentages (adjusted for drops and throw-aways) and seven are measures of yards per attempt (also adjusted). All are separated into different areas of the field a QB targeted.

Measures for touchdown throws, interceptions, and third-down conversions are also included to round out the grading scale.

The final scoring tallies up standard deviations from the mean across those 21 categories. For example, the standard deviation on completion percentage of throws outside the hashes was 5%. With a score that was 9.7% better than average in that category, Marcus Mariota scored a 1.79.

A few multipliers were placed into the formula to improve it. Total attempts divided by interceptions was halved, whereas attempts beyond six yards divided by interceptions was multiplied by 1.5. Third down conversion percentages in the three yardage categories were multiplied by a third. Those added to the category for total conversion percentages make third-down numbers worth 9.5% of the total scoring, essentially as two categories.

Without further ado, let’s get to the numbers* themselves.

1. Marcus Mariota, Oregon: 28.67
2. Brett Hundley, UCLA: 11.33
3. Bryce Petty, Baylor: 10.41
4. Nick Marshall, Auburn: 8.95
5. Blake Sims, Alabama: 6.41
6. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 5.41
7. Jameis Winston, Florida State: 3.42
8. Bo Wallace, Ole Miss: 2.61
9. Shane Carden, East Carolina: 1.30
10. Sean Mannion, Oregon State: -7.67
11. Taylor Kelly, Arizona State: -8.84
12. Cody Fajardo, Nevada: -13.11
13. Brandon Bridge, South Alabama: -14.91
14. Anthony Boone, Duke: -33.99

First up in the statistical categories are the overall marks.

TOTALS

Quarterbacks who throw underneath regularly and are less accurate down the field will be elevated in this category. It also elevates quarterbacks whose numbers thrive on yards after the catch on things like screen passes.

The next category, throws beyond 5 yards, is more telling of a QB’s accuracy down the field.

6+ YARDS

6-15 YARDS

16-25 YARDS
...
26+ YARDS
...
OUTSIDE THE HASHES
...
BETWEEN THE HASHES
...
TOUCHDOWNS

INTERCEPTIONS

THIRD-DOWN CONVERSIONS

...

This is just a sampling of a wealth of info on these QBs at the linked article. (I'm limited to 6 images per post.)

*The "scoring" ranking, I think, is much less important than the information gathered.

 

[El Tejano]

I hope we get Blake Sims in this draft.

 

[JB]

I hope we get Blake Sims in this draft.

why?

 

[El Tejano]

why?

He seems to be the kind of player that doesn't quit. I like that some didn't think he would be successful in college and then he's there almost winning the National Championship....I like his big arm, and he's got some wheels and great escapability. But like even the chart says (and I watched games with the same observation) low ints with great 3rd down conversion rates.