2012 Football Outsiders QBR

[thunderkyss]

So I found this article from Football Outsiders it gives us objective data to analyze 39 quarterbacks from the 2012 season. We all know stats aren't the end all be all of player comparison because none of them include the subjective aspects of the game; the human factor, or the "eyeball test."

Still, the statistic show a clear difference between the #1 guy & #39. Generally I find the spread to be fairly accurate to our human perspective. Few would be surprised to see Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning & Aaron Rodgers at the top of the list. Most would expect to see Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, & John Skelton at the bottom.

Where we generally argue is the placement of guys in the middle. Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, & Andrew Luck below Schaub..... gasp!!!

Personally I like Football Outsiders approach to stats in that they try to normalize the numbers so we can more accurately compare #1 to #39. Of course Matthew Stafford is going to look great throwing to megatron.

So my question to you, if you rank your QBs in tiers, how does this list compare to your tiers?

Revised as of 12/31/2012
Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback 's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.

The simple version: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.

Player Team DYAR
T.Brady NE 2,035
P.Manning DEN 1,800
D.Brees NO 1,444
A.Rodgers GB 1,395
M.Ryan ATL 1,216
T.Romo DAL 1,187
M.Stafford DET 1,148
R.Wilson SEA 867
E.Manning NYG 770
B.Roethlisberger PIT 757
R.Griffin WAS 729
M.Schaub HOU 695
C.Kaepernick SF 553


Player Team DYAR
C.Newton CAR 422
A.Smith SF 420
S.Bradford STL 372
J.Flacco BAL 354
C.Palmer OAK 334
A.Luck IND 255
A.Dalton CIN 192
C.Ponder MIN 175
P.Rivers SD 138
J.Freeman TB 115
R.Fitzpatrick BUF 114
R.Tannehill MIA 37
M.Hasselbeck TEN -4

Player Team DYAR
J.Cutler CHI -73
M.Vick PHI -82
K.Kolb ARI -155
N.Foles PHI -166
J.Locker TEN -267
B.Gabbert JAC -269
C.Henne JAC -287
B.Weeden CLE -290
J.Skelton ARI -323
M.Cassel KC -354
B.Quinn KC -442
R.Lindley ARI -482
M.Sanchez NYJ -611

 

[infantrycak]

You have subjective and objective backwards.

 

[thunderkyss]

You have subjective and objective backwards.

would you believe it was a typo?

:

 

[thunderkyss]

Let's look at ESPN's Total QBR

First you've got to understand Expected Points Added (EPA)

Based on statistical analysis of 10 years of NFL play-by-play data, ESPN has created a formula that assigns an "expected points" value to the team with the ball at the start of each play based on the game situation. Expected points (EP) accounts for factors such as down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage and time remaining.

The benefit of having this EP value at the start of each play is that it can be used to measure the success of that play by comparing it to the EP value at the start of the next play. Good offensive plays such as first downs generally increase EP; losses or incomplete passes generally decrease it. This difference in EP from one play to the next is called expected points added (EPA). Because of all it accounts for and its points scale, EPA is a very accurate measure of how each play affects potential changes on the scoreboard.

According to EPA

RK PLAYER TOTAL EPA
1 Peyton Manning, DEN 116.8
2 Matt Ryan, ATL 114.4
3 Tom Brady, NE 109.2
4 Aaron Rodgers, GB 102.9
5 Tony Romo, DAL 91.5
6 Andrew Luck, IND 89.5
7 Russell Wilson, SEA 88.2
8 Drew Brees, NO 86.4
9 Matthew Stafford, DET 82.4
10 Robert Griffin III, WSH 80.1
RK PLAYER TOTAL EPA
11 Eli Manning, NYG 71.5
12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 69.4
13 Matt Schaub, HOU 61.1
14 Cam Newton, CAR 55.8
15 Sam Bradford, STL 51.3
16 Josh Freeman, TB 50.2
17 Andy Dalton, CIN 48.5
18 Colin Kaepernick, SF 46.4
19 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 46.2
20 Joe Flacco, BAL 39.7
RK PLAYER TOTAL EPA
21 Christian Ponder, MIN 38.9
22 Jay Cutler, CHI 37
23 Alex Smith, SF 34.5
24 Carson Palmer, OAK 30.3
25 Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF 30
26 Michael Vick, PHI 25.9
27 Philip Rivers, SD 23.1
28 Jake Locker, TEN 22.6
29 Nick Foles, PHI 17.7
30 Matt Hasselbeck, TEN 14.6
RK PLAYER TOTAL EPA
31 Blaine Gabbert, JAC 13.1
32 Matt Cassel, KC 7.1
33 Chad Henne, JAC 0.1
34 Brady Quinn, KC -2.3
35 Brandon Weeden, CLE -8
36 Mark Sanchez, NYJ -13.7

 

[thunderkyss]

Now a little more about QBR

The Total Quarterback Rating is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of those throws and what they mean for wins. It's built from the team level down to the quarterback, where we understand first what each play means to the team, then give credit to the quarterback for what happened on that play based on what he contributed.

The goal behind any player rating should be determining how much a player contributes to a win. We went back through 10 years of NFL play-by-play data to look at game situation (down, distance, yard line, clock time, timeouts, home field, field surface and score), along with the ultimate outcome of the game, to develop a win probability function.

The final major step is to look at how "clutch" the situation was when creating expected points. A normal play has a clutch index of 1.0. For instance, first-and-goal from the 10-yard line in a tie game at the start of the second quarter has a clutch index of almost exactly 1.0. A more clutch situation, one late in the game when the game is close -- the same situation as above but midway through the fourth quarter, for example -- has a clutch index of about 2.0. Maximum clutch indices are about 3.0, and minimum indices are about 0.3.

RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
1 Peyton Manning, DEN 84.1
2 Tom Brady, NE 77.1
3 Colin Kaepernick, SF 76.8
4 Matt Ryan, ATL 74.5
5 Aaron Rodgers, GB 72.5
6 Robert Griffin III, WSH 71.4
7 Alex Smith, SF 70.1
8 Russell Wilson, SEA 69.6
9 Drew Brees, NO 67.9
10 Eli Manning, NYG 67.4
RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
11 Andrew Luck, IND 65
12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 62.8
13 Tony Romo, DAL 62.7
14 Matt Schaub, HOU 62.6
15 Matthew Stafford, DET 58.9
16 Cam Newton, CAR 54.2
17 Christian Ponder, MIN 53.8
18 Josh Freeman, TB 53.1
19 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 52.3
20 Jay Cutler, CHI 51.9
RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
21 Sam Bradford, STL 51.6
22 Andy Dalton, CIN 50.7
23 Matt Hasselbeck, TEN 48.5
24 Jake Locker, TEN 48.1
25 Joe Flacco, BAL 46.8
26 Michael Vick, PHI 46
27 Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF 45.8
28 Nick Foles, PHI 45.3
29 Carson Palmer, OAK 44.7
30 Blaine Gabbert, JAC 40.9
RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
31 Philip Rivers, SD 40.6
32 Matt Cassel, KC 36.5
33 Chad Henne, JAC 29.9
34 Brady Quinn, KC 27.4
35 Brandon Weeden, CLE 26.6
36 Mark Sanchez, NYJ 23.4

​

Again, the tops & bottoms are generally the same. Their exact placements are a bit off. We may draw our lines at different spots, but definite tiers can be identified.

 

[thunderkyss]

How many people feel that when we're facing Sanchez when we're playing against Luck and the Colts? (since both QBs are comparable.. like Luck is to Tebow, Gabbert, and now Sanchez), if you do.. raise your hands

Get rid of Reggie Wayne & it's comparable.

I do not fear Andrew Luck any more than Gabbert... sorry. If our offense can do it's thing & put points on the board, Andrew Luck is of no concern. If our offense can't score more than 16 points, we may as well be playing Christian Ponder.

 

[Rey]

Yeah, I couldn't care less about those numbers.

I'm concerned about qb's that are capable of making things happen on any given number of plays.

I don't think gabbert could do that in the past. We'll see for the future. I was worried about VY when we played him because he could make a play. No matter how bad or mediocre he is, I'm worried that at any point he could make a play or succession of plays that change momentum or put his team in a good position. I don't feel that way about Gabbert. I felt that way about ponder last year going into the game. I feel that way about Luck, kaepernick, manning, Ben rothlisberger and Eli...Brady...even Flacco

If I was the fan of another team, and my guys were about to play the texans Schaub wouldn't worry me like that. Not that I think he sucks, but I wouldn't be worried about him all of a sudden making those great type of plays that change momentum and leave a lasting imprint in my brain. I don't think he has the ability to do that.

So some of those guys with bad ratings per these numbers....I'd take them ahead of some of the guys with higher ratings depending on the offense I'm running and what the rest of my personnel looked like.