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2010 Power Rankings and the Texans

T

ToxicButt

Noob
There’s been a lot of chatter about missed opportunities, what if this and what if that, and whether the close games reflect an improvement in talent or incompetence in coaching. I don’t post here much and haven’t started a thread in years (since “The People v. Gary Kubiak and Richard Smith for 2nd Degree Murder of Defense"). I thought I’d approach the subject of the Texans' future from a gut level, and see what folks think about where the Texans project in 2010 power rankings.

Tier 1 Elite Teams: Colts, Pats and Chargers
These three teams are just better than everyone else. Elite QB play, strong defenses, track record of sustained success. I don’t think anyone could say that these are not elite teams.

Tier 2: The Next Five: Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Tenn and Jets
Here is where the debate begins. I think these five teams, in the order listed, are the next tier of teams that have the best shot at the playoffs. Steelers and Ravens have had recent playoff success and elite defensive units. The Steelers worst season in the last three was 2009, where they went 9-7 after a superbowl hangover. In the other 2 years, they were 10-6 and 12-4. The Ravens have been 5-11, 11-5 and 9-7. They’re just good tough teams. (I’d almost put the Steelers in Tier 1).

I think the Texans are next and trend upwards. We have young players that will improve, particularly on defense. The keys are Schaub’s health and Kubiak’s coaching in big games. Add a running game and you address both key issues. As much as I hate them, the Titans are right there with the Texans. They’ve been 10-6, 13-3 and 8-8. I look for them to rebound with a stronger defense and Chris Johnson still beasting.

The Jets have an elite defense and running game, which should continue. I ding them for QB play and the fact that they were given the last two games this year. The Jets have been 5-11, 9-7 and 9-7.

Tier 3: The Rodney Dangerfields: Cincy, Denver, Jacksonville, Miami
Is Cincy capable of any sustained success or ganizational stability. Denver’s disasterous fade makes their early success seem like a mirage. Jackson ville doesn’t have the talent of the Tier 1 and 2 teams. Miami is the Houston Rockets of the NFL – the ultimate try hard team, they get every ounce of performance from the talent they have. Would anyone be surprised at all if these teams turned in a 5-11 or 6-10 season? Not me. (All AFC Teams not mentioned are likely garbage)

Analysis:
We don’t have the talent or sustained success of Tier 1 teams, but we should be in the mix. In December 2010, we should be fighting for a playoff spot. We have to find a way to enter December with a winning record and not be hoping for a 4 game winning streak and help from other teams to make it. So much will turn on adding a running game and Kubiak’s coaching. If we play to our talent level, we should be in. (Some would say that was the case this year, but it will be the case in 2010 even more clearly). If we don’t, it’s a failure of leadership and we need a new regime.

I’d like to see your power rankings and analysis of how the Texans project.
 
I don't think the Pats are an Elite team anymore. Good, yes, but they aren't consistently good like they were in the past. Especially on the road. And you have to win on the road in the playoffs unless you are the number 1 seed. I think they are living on their past rep. I would put the pats at tier 1 1/2. But good post by the way...
 
I agree on tier 2. The Jets can move up or down depending on how Sanchez performs in the next couple of years. The Texans are just so damn close. They can taste it. And I think the Steelers will be back next year.
 
In a league where nearly half the teams qualify for the playoffs, I think this team should be in the mix. Makes me ill thinking about starting another playoff tournament and the Texans are off ice fishing somewhere. I think the Chargers are the best team in the league right now. The Patriots and Colts have great drafts and outstanding scouting so they are always right up there but I'd include the Steelers. Every franchise has off seasons but if you look at their history, they are clearly one of the modern day NFL elite franchises and they will plug their holes.
 
although I think alot of our win Sunday, I also think the luster is off the Pats a little from years past. soon as I say that they'll make hay of teams in the playoffs, but I still think a smidge less of them than seasons past.
 
Vinny -

It is fact that 6 of 16 teams make the playoffs. As good as that sounds, part of the purpose of my thread is to indicate that there are "elite" franchises in the AFC that as a practical matter have a stranglehold on 3 of those spots. The other 12 or 13 teams are fighting for the remaining three spots.

When you step back and look at it from that perspective, it is absolutely critical to build an elite franchise that has top notch talent evaluation and coaching. It's easy for folks to say that the Colts are elite just because of Manning, but that's not true. As you noted, they consistently draft well. As for the Pats and Chargers, well, the Pats found and groomed Brady and a host of other players and Bellicheck is the best tactician in the business. The Chargers managed to identify Rivers as the better QB over Manning and continue to perform well on draft day.

Maybe the real point of all this is that you better make sure you have the right GM and Coach. Otherwise, you're just another team trying to have more peaks than valleys. You wind up hoping that your peaks are often and high enough to make the playoffs every few years and you catch lightning in a bottle at some point and win it all.
 
ToxicButt said:
Vinny -

It is fact that 6 of 16 teams make the playoffs. As good as that sounds, part of the purpose of my thread is to indicate that there are "elite" franchises in the AFC that as a practical matter have a stranglehold on 3 of those spots. The other 12 or 13 teams are fighting for the remaining three spots.

When you step back and look at it from that perspective, it is absolutely critical to build an elite franchise that has top notch talent evaluation and coaching. It's easy for folks to say that the Colts are elite just because of Manning, but that's not true. As you noted, they consistently draft well. As for the Pats and Chargers, well, the Pats found and groomed Brady and a host of other players and Bellicheck is the best tactician in the business. The Chargers managed to identify Rivers as the better QB over Manning and continue to perform well on draft day.

Maybe the real point of all this is that you better make sure you have the right GM and Coach. Otherwise, you're just another team trying to have more peaks than valleys. You wind up hoping that your peaks are often and high enough to make the playoffs every few years and you catch lightning in a bottle at some point and win it all.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say that. Manning didn't want to play in San Diego, they drafted him but traded him for Rivers and whatever else they got. Still worked out great in their favour, though
 
I seem to recall that the Chargers GM decided to play chicken with Manning by taking him despite his position of not wanting to play in San Diego. I thought there were subsequent reports (maybe self serving revisionist history/propaganda) that the Chargers wanted Rivers all along and got even more for because they used the additional picks from NYG to get Merriman and Kaeding.
 
Not going against you on that one. Its entirely possible that it happened like that. I am not familiar with the scenario and what happened with it. I understand that they took Manning even though he had said he would never play in San Diego.
With that said, the only way that they would draft him is to try and trade him. I have no idea about who the Chargers liked more though.
 
stingray said:
I don't think the Pats are an Elite team anymore. Good, yes, but they aren't consistently good like they were in the past. Especially on the road. And you have to win on the road in the playoffs unless you are the number 1 seed. I think they are living on their past rep. I would put the pats at tier 1 1/2. But good post by the way...
Click to expand...

I'd have to disagree with you here. They have one of the deepest
rosters in the NFL, as we saw when Welker went down. They have
re-tooled about 2/3's of their roster in the last two seasons with
young talent the way Belichick is known for. They are younger than
us, and as our records show, still better than us.
 
Vinny said:
In a league where nearly half the teams qualify for the playoffs, I think this team should be in the mix. Makes me ill thinking about starting another playoff tournament and the Texans are off ice fishing somewhere. I think the Chargers are the best team in the league right now. The Patriots and Colts have great drafts and outstanding scouting so they are always right up there but I'd include the Steelers. Every franchise has off seasons but if you look at their history, they are clearly one of the modern day NFL elite franchises and they will plug their holes.
Click to expand...

I agree , but how many times do you think the Texans would have made the playoffs if they were in the AFC west feasting on the Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos.
or the AFC east feasting on the Dolphins, Bills, Jets (until this year).

instead we are stuck in a division with Peyton "Jesus is handling my job for now" Manning. The very consistant solid Titans led by fisher. (They still suck BA) and the sometimes good sometimes bad Jags. All of the teams in our Div are not cellar dwellars. It is easy to be Elite when you play with the top of the NFL draft every year.


and dont get me started on NFC west.

by the way....Correct me if I am wrong but isnt KC and St. Louis farther east than us? and closer to Indy? How is Indy in the south? NFL divisions make no geographical sense
 
DexmanC said:
I'd have to disagree with you here. They have one of the deepest
rosters in the NFL, as we saw when Welker went down. They have
re-tooled about 2/3's of their roster in the last two seasons with
young talent the way Belichick is known for. They are younger than
us, and as our records show, still better than us.
Click to expand...

I didn't say that we were better than them. Of course the Pats are better than us. I'm just saying that as it stands now, I believe that only the Colts and the Chargers could be considered Elite teams. Pats could come back next year and be in that group. And the Pats do have a young group but they can't seem to win on the road. Those young players are also going through growing pains.

But If you wanna talk about the whole decade, then there is no discussion. Pats are #1 by far.
 
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I don't think you can have this discussion without talking about the Eagles. I think they fit in right among the best of tier 2. The saints are not far behind, same with the Vikes. There are still a lot of teams clearly better than us.

EDIT: Sorry, I think you are just talking about AFC
 
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