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Here is Friday's version of my mock

L

LZ

Waterboy
* - projected trade

1. Miami - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. St. Louis - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
3. Atlanta - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
4. Oakland - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
5. Kansas City - Brandon Albert, LT, Virginia
6. NY Jets - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
7. New England - Sedrick Ellis, NT, USC
8. Baltimore - Ryan Clady, LT, Boise State
9. Cincinnati - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
10. New Orleans - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
*11. Kansas City (from Buffalo) - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
12. Denver - Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
13. Carolina - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
14. Chicago - Gosder Cherilus, RT, Boston College
15. Detroit - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
16. Arizona - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
*17. Buffalo (from KC) - Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan St
18. Houston - Chris Williams, LT, Vanderbilt
** Z-Report Says: If Rodgers-Cromartie and Williams are both on the board it will be a very tough decision for the Texans. I'm going to gamble that they go LT here.
19. Philadelphia - Jeff Otah, OT, Pitt
20. Tampa Bay - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tenn. State
21. Washington - Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
22. Dallas - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
23. Pittsburgh - Mike Jenkins, CB, USF
24. Tennessee - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
25. Seattle - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
26. Jacksonville - Tyrell Johnson, SS, Arkansas St
27. San Diego - Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
28. Dallas - Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami
29. San Francisco - DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal
*30. Atlanta (from Green Bay) - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
31. NY Giants - James Hardy, WR, Indiana
 
Do you really think that Carolina will take Jonathan Stewart just after they drafted DeAngelo Williams?
 
LZ said:
18. Houston - Chris Williams, LT, Vanderbilt
** Z-Report Says: If Rodgers-Cromartie and Williams are both on the board it will be a very tough decision for the Texans. I'm going to gamble that they go LT here.
Click to expand...
The Texans have to think about which player has the least bust potential. An All-SEC LT or a small college phenom. It's not as if both players don't have question marks. And it's easier to find a CB in the 3rd round than a LT.

From a value aspect, Chris Long going #6 makes sense. But the Jets just dumped defenders this offseason (Robertson & Vilma) that were poor fits for the 3-4. And while Long played a 3-4 DE in college, he doesn't have the size to fill that role in the pros. He's also not a 3-4 OLB. Long's a legit 4-3 DE. If the Jets go front 7 with this pick, Gholston makes more sense.
 
I would rather if the Texans took a player with a higher upside. I think we're actually in position to gamble a little bit. We didn't lose anything earth-shattering in the offseason and we won 8 games. If we could get a guy that's a true difference maker (although with a higher-risk of bustitude) I think that would be good.

Then again, maybe I'm wrong...
 
Lucky said:
The Texans have to think about which player has the least bust potential. An All-SEC LT or a small college phenom. It's not as if both players don't have question marks. And it's easier to find a CB in the 3rd round than a LT.

From a value aspect, Chris Long going #6 makes sense. But the Jets just dumped defenders this offseason (Robertson & Vilma) that were poor fits for the 3-4. And while Long played a 3-4 DE in college, he doesn't have the size to fill that role in the pros. He's also not a 3-4 OLB. Long's a legit 4-3 DE. If the Jets go front 7 with this pick, Gholston makes more sense.
Click to expand...

Actually, their is the same percentage of starters at CB who come from the undrafted pool as there is from the 3rd round. There is a high fail rate for CBs from rounds 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Many teams think Long is a 3-4 OLB similar to Kevin Greene.
 
Nice mock LZ. I particularly like the trades you included- make sense and could happen.

What are you thoughts on Mayo and Rivers specific to the Texans? Any idea if we'd be interested if they were available?
 
what your insiders missed is Denver loves Stewart so its a mute point w/carolina taking RB they go tackle & Otah would be a perfect fit. otherwise looks very, very good less than 24 hours away :specnatz:
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
Nice mock LZ. I particularly like the trades you included- make sense and could happen.

What are you thoughts on Mayo and Rivers specific to the Texans? Any idea if we'd be interested if they were available?
Click to expand...

I would be interested in both. I think Greenwood is a big weakness on the club. People point to his tackles last year but how many were TFLs? How many fumble recoveries, fumbles caused, INTs or sacks did he have? The WLB position is for playmakers and both Mayo and Rivers would fit the bill and would help the Texans to rid themselves of Greenwoods over-inflated cap number.
 
beerlover said:
what your insiders missed is Denver loves Stewart so its a mute point w/carolina taking RB they go tackle & Otah would be a perfect fit. otherwise looks very, very good less than 24 hours away :specnatz:
Click to expand...

Denver is one of the most tight lipped organizations in history. I would be interested in knowing why you think people know who they like and why that info is good info and not something that is being floated out there. I think he's a good fit there but they also could use a LT/RT so this one is a tough one. Mayo, like Al Wilson is a Tenn. MLB who can run and would help immediately against the run where they were so atrocious. They were still a solid rushing team last year with mish-mash but their rush defense was an atrocity.
 
LZ said:
Denver is one of the most tight lipped organizations in history. I would be interested in knowing why you think people know who they like and why that info is good info and not something that is being floated out there. I think he's a good fit there but they also could use a LT/RT so this one is a tough one. Mayo, like Al Wilson is a Tenn. MLB who can run and would help immediately against the run where they were so atrocious. They were still a solid rushing team last year with mish-mash but their rush defense was an atrocity.
Click to expand...

I would share if I could remember the exact source (believe it was a local media guy in Denver) someone with similar pedigree to yourself, I took as reliable enough to project the pick about four days ago.

I've taken a detached approach as oppossed to making it personel. Its almost impossible to figure which RB is going to be better based upon unknowns like the system they'll be drafted into. simply put Jonathan Stewart is a perfect ZBS RB. great cut-back power downhill runner, also the #1 reason I wanted him to slide to the Texans but alas I know he's not going to fall like people around here expect. according to John McClain the Texans won't take a RB in the 1st rd. no matter what......
 
Lance-

So what exactly are the problems coming up with Chris Williams? I've heard he has a bad back, 'short arms', and that one leg or arm is shorter than the other. And that something MAY require surgery. and that some teams may have taken him completely off their draft board.

What's your take on these and what would be the effects of them? is there any merit to them?
 
LZ said:
I would be interested in both. I think Greenwood is a big weakness on the club. People point to his tackles last year but how many were TFLs? How many fumble recoveries, fumbles caused, INTs or sacks did he have? The WLB position is for playmakers and both Mayo and Rivers would fit the bill and would help the Texans to rid themselves of Greenwoods over-inflated cap number.
Click to expand...

I have been pulling for Rivers to fall to us since the Combine. With the recent draft trends with the LB position, you could see him falling right in our lap at #18...If Rivers gets past Buffalo and Denver, I think we could be in good shape.
 
Lance's Top 100

1. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
2. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
3. Chris Long, DE, Virginia
4. Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
5. Jake Long, OT, Michigan
6. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
7. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
8. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy State
9. Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
10. Branden Albert, OT/OG, Virginia
11. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
12. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
13. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
14. Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
15. Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
16. Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
17. Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
18. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
19. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tenn. State
20. Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
21. Quentin Groves, OLB/DE, Auburn
22. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
23. Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma
24. Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
25. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
26. Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami
27. Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
28. James Hardy, WR, Indiana
29. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
30. Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
31. Desean Jackson, WR, Cal
32. Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
33. Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
34. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
35. Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas
36. Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
37. Justin King, CB, Penn State
38. Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
39. Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
40. Sam Baker, OT, USC
41. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
42. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
43. Joe Flacco, QB, Deleware
44. Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
45. Tyrell Johnson, SS, Arkansas State
46. Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
47. Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
48. Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
49. Fred Davis, TE, USC
50. Chilo Rachal, OG, USC
51. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
52. Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
53. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
54. Mike Pollak, C, Arizona St.
55. Thomas DeCoud, FS, Cal
56. Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
57. Cliff Avril, OLB, Purdue
58. Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
59. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
60. Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
61. Xavier Adibi, OLB, Virginia Tech
62. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
63. Early Doucet, WR, LSU
64. Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
65. Marcus Howard, DE/OLB, Georgia
66. Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina
67. Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
68. Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
69. Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
70. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
71. Carl Nicks, OT/OG, Nebraska
73. Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
74. Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
75. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
76. Kevin Smith, RB, Central Florida
77. Darrell Robertson, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech
78. Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
79. Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
80. Steve Justice, C, Wake Forest
81. Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
82. Roy Schuening, OG, Oregon State
83. DaJuan Morgan, FS, N.C. State
84. Terrell Thomas, CB/FS, USC
85. Kendall Langford, DE, Hampton
86. John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
87. Ahtyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
88. Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
89. Shawn Crable, OLB/DE, Michigan
90. Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma
91. Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
92. Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
93. Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland
94. Bruce Davis, OLB/DE, UCLA
95. John Greco, OT, Toledo
96. Jeremy Thompson, DE, Wake Forest
97. Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M
98. Chris Ellis, DE, Virginia Tech
99. Jason Jones, DE, E. Michigan
100. Paul Hubbard, WR, Wisconsin
Click to expand...
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
Lance-

So what exactly are the problems coming up with Chris Williams? I've heard he has a bad back, 'short arms', and that one leg or arm is shorter than the other. And that something MAY require surgery. and that some teams may have taken him completely off their draft board.

What's your take on these and what would be the effects of them? is there any merit to them?
Click to expand...

Most of those things have come from me, but they are all true. Now I will say this. Different teams have different opinions and the Texans med staff may be just fine with his medicals. Some teams think he'll need surgery at some point for a cervical condition but there are other teams I know of who don't think that is the case. Either way, he is probably the most game-ready rookie at LT that you are going to find and the Texans would probably be jumping for joy if he were there.
 
By the way, I made some changes to my mock draft and they are reflected in the first post which has been edited if you want to go back and check it out again.
 
LZ said:
I would be interested in both. I think Greenwood is a big weakness on the club. People point to his tackles last year but how many were TFLs? How many fumble recoveries, fumbles caused, INTs or sacks did he have? The WLB position is for playmakers and both Mayo and Rivers would fit the bill and would help the Texans to rid themselves of Greenwoods over-inflated cap number.
Click to expand...

This is what I have been saying for awhile now. Greenwood is average at best. Everytime I say it people say look at his numbers and I say he has tackles nothing else. We need more playmakers, someone who causes turnovers. Until then our D will only be average.

My favorite and the one I want to fall the most is Harvey but I would love Mayo on this D.
 
I think your going to have Rodgers-Cromartie and McKelvin off in the first 11picks. I really think that if Mike Jenkins is on the board, the Texans will take him.
 
Wolf said:
Lance, just curious I don't know much on Aquib, but from what i hear "failing drug tests" and such
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDraft/Draft+Extras/2008/wwhi040808.htm

Do you see Atlanta still wanting him or do you think they are tired of the "headcases"

just asking, I am far from being a draft guy

I don't know who has the website, I am just going off of what he is saying according to the Texans not going after him and with his"hips not being smooth"

http://www.atexansblog.com/
Click to expand...


You are dead on. I was going to change it but I'm going to wait until tomorrow. I know they want a CB and may move up for one, but the question is who? With Vick and DAngelo Hall being problems and with a new head coach in there, character is going to be an issue and they probably won't draft Talib.
 
TexansSeminole said:
I think your going to have Rodgers-Cromartie and McKelvin off in the first 11picks. I really think that if Mike Jenkins is on the board, the Texans will take him.
Click to expand...

I don't think DRC goes to Buffalo, but I do think he could easily go to Arizona at 16 and Mendenhall could be the guy who falls into the 20s.
 
LZ said:
Actually, their is the same percentage of starters at CB who come from the undrafted pool as there is from the 3rd round. There is a high fail rate for CBs from rounds 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7.
Click to expand...
I don't know where you came up with that information, but it's not close to accurate. There may be 6 or 7 starting CBs in the league that came into the league as college free agents. There are 3X the number of starting corners taken in what's now considered the 2nd day of the draft. Good ones too, such as Asante Samuel, Ronde Barber, Al Harris, and Ellis Hobbs. Sure, more 2nd day corners fail than those taken on the 1st day. But, a third of the starting CBs were taken in rounds 3-7. And that's a much higher % than the LTs taken that late.

As far as Chris Long projecting as a 3-4 OLB, Jason Babin was also compared to Kevin Greene on his draft day. The difference is that Babin was a late 1st rounder. Making a positional projection on a top 10 pick like Long is just nuts. I'm not suggesting that you're crazy for predicting the Jets will. Just that the Jets would be if they did make that pick. And it would go against everything they've done thus far in the offseason.
 
Lucky said:
I don't know where you came up with that information, but it's not close to accurate. There may be 6 or 7 starting CBs in the league that came into the league as college free agents. There are 3X the number of starting corners taken in what's now considered the 2nd day of the draft. Good ones too, such as Asante Samuel, Ronde Barber, Al Harris, and Ellis Hobbs. Sure, more 2nd day corners fail than those taken on the 1st day. But, a third of the starting CBs were taken in rounds 3-7. And that's a much higher % than the LTs taken that late.

As far as Chris Long projecting as a 3-4 OLB, Jason Babin was also compared to Kevin Greene on his draft day. The difference is that Babin was a late 1st rounder. Making a positional projection on a top 10 pick like Long is just nuts. I'm not suggesting that you're crazy for predicting the Jets will. Just that the Jets would be if they did make that pick. And it would go against everything they've done thus far in the offseason.
Click to expand...

It isn't really all that nuts on Long at all. Either a guy has the skill set or he doesn't. It isn't like he would have to be in coverage all the time. That is overrated. He would be rushing the passer and stopping the run. Not that different.

As for the CB information:

1st Round: 26%
2nd Round: 21%
Undrafted: 14%
3rd Round: 13%
4th Round: 12%

61% of corners on NFL Two-Deeps came out of the 1st Round, 2nd Round, or undrafted free agency.
 
LZ said:
It isn't really all that nuts on Long at all. Either a guy has the skill set or he doesn't. It isn't like he would have to be in coverage all the time. That is overrated. He would be rushing the passer and stopping the run. Not that different.

As for the CB information:

1st Round: 26%
2nd Round: 21%
Undrafted: 14%
3rd Round: 13%
4th Round: 12%

61% of corners on NFL Two-Deeps came out of the 1st Round, 2nd Round, or undrafted free agency.
Click to expand...

Sure, but that statistic can be misread. The pool of third round picks is much smaller than the pool of undrafted free agents. A fairer stat would be comparing CBs chosen from the third round and beyond versus undrafted FAs.
 
LZ said:
You are dead on. I was going to change it but I'm going to wait until tomorrow. I know they want a CB and may move up for one, but the question is who? With Vick and DAngelo Hall being problems and with a new head coach in there, character is going to be an issue and they probably won't draft Talib.
Click to expand...

I can see them going with Brandon Flowers, Terrell Thomas, or a Reggie Smith in the 2nd round. They need help all along the secondary.

I think the Falcons will address corner with one of those 2nd rounders they have.
 
TexansSeminole said:
I can see them going with Brandon Flowers, Terrell Thomas, or a Reggie Smith in the 2nd round. They need help all along the secondary.

I think the Falcons will address corner with one of those 2nd rounders they have.
Click to expand...

Flowers makes some sense, but he's not the biggest guy around and Mike Smith prefers bigger CBs. Reggie Smith is going to fall in my opinion.
 
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