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If I were Rick Smith, this is what I'd do.

Hottoddie

Hottoddie

Veteran
So, what do I have to work with & what do I need to do with it?

Off Season to Do List

1) I know I have $35+ million in available cap space to spend.
2) I have to set some money aside for my draft picks.
3) I have 4 major holes I need to fill immediately (LT, CB, RB, C) & I need depth throughout the team.
4) I don't believe FS is a major need position anymore, with the emergence of Demps. He just needs to get that damn brace off his arm. Harrison should be ready to play by next year as well.
5) I'm going to release Flanagan & Green, which should give me an additional $2.5 - $3.0 million in cap space. That'll give me ~$38 million to spend in free agency.
6) I only want to bring in guys in the 24-26 year old range.
7) I believe that Spencer, McKinney, Taylor, Weary, White, & all the rest of my players on injured reserve will be fully recovered & ready to go by next season. The only exception should be Dunta.
8) I've got to resign Davis, Demps, C.C. Brown, Kalu, Weary, & Clark. I'll wait on the rest to see how free agency & the draft plays out.

So, let's get started.

Free Agency

I'm going to target 4 key free agents immediately, but I'll have backup candidates for 2 of them.

1) Travelle Wharton (LT) (UFA) - Carolina: Unless they tag him (They probably will), I'll be in touch with him in the first minute of free agency & be offering him a near franchise tackle type of salary ($8-10 million per year).

1a) If he's tagged, I'll go after Max Starks (RT) (UFA) ($4-6 million) - Pittsburgh: Depending upon the coaches opinions, this would allow us to put Starks at RT & move Winston to RG or LT, with Spencer filling the other role.

2) Marcus Trufant (CB) (UFA) - Seattle: Again, unless they tag him (& they probably will), I'll be in touch with him right after I talk with Wharton. If you figure that Asante will get Clements type of money, then I have to be looking at paying $6-8 million per year.

2a) If Trufant is tagged, I'll go after one of these CB's (in this order).

Randall Gay (CB) (UFA) - New England ($2-3 million per year)
Drayton Florence (CB) (UFA) - San Diego ($3-4 million per year)
Domonique Foxworth (CB) (RFA-3rd) Denver ($2-3 million) I'll only go after Foxworth if I miss out on the first 3 & trade down in the draft to pick up another 3rd.

3) Landon Johnson (OLB) (UFA) - Cincinnati: LJ will make a great compliment to DeMeco ($3-5 million per year).

4) Tatum Bell (RB) (UFA) - Detroit: Either he'll opt out of his contract, or they'll cut him. I'm not sure which it'll be, but he will be a free agent ($3-4 million per year).

Well, that's all my free agent acquisitions & depending upon who I get, I'll have spent somewhere between $12-27 million. If I spent $27 million, it'll mean I signed 4 starters in Wharton (LT), Trufant (CB), Johnson (OLB), & Bell (RB) to fill 4 of our biggest holes before the draft rolls around.

However, the reality of the NFL is that I'll have probably signed Starks (RT), Florence (CB), LJ (OLB), & Bell (RB) for ~$19 million. I'd consider that a pretty good free agent haul though. That'll leave me ~$19 million to resign our free agents & draft picks. Now, on to the draft.

Draft Day

As of this post, we're picking in the 15-19th spot in the draft, depending upon how the strength of schedule shakes out. With my free agents signed, here's how I'll approach the draft. If I can trade down & pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd, I most likely will. While you never want to lose any games, losing these last 2 would sure go a long way towards giving me more leverage in trade down discussions. But, assuming we end up where we are now, here's what I'll do.

1) Jonathan Stewart (RB), Kenny Phillips (FS), Mike Jenkins (CB), Dan Conner (OLB)

3) Leodis McKelvin (CB), Steve Winston (C), Louis Holmes (DE)

4) Jordon Dizon (OLB), John Sullivan (C), Kyle Devan (C)

5) Kyle Devan (C), Andrew Bain (G), Eric Bakhtiai (DE)

6) Eric Bakhtiai (DE), Bruce Hocker (WR), Hercules Satele (G)

7) Bruce Hocker (WR), Caleb Campbell (SS), Lionel Dotson (DT), Eric Foster (DE)

Hehe, how's that for a list of no name draft picks? :D I guess it's a good thing I'm not Rick Smith. :)

Anyway, what would you do, if you were Rick Smith?
 
First off I believe you are a bit high on the available cap space, it will be closer to $25M IMO after the rookie cap and resigning of the Texans FA you are targeting. Davis and Demps will be looking raises, Demps was cut due injury from a 4M(?) a year contract, believe me, he wants to be back at that level.

The release of Green this season might be to costly, a May 1st cut saves $1.5M this year but cost you $5.5M in dead money next season. Plus the interview with Kubiak point that Green is still the #1 in there current plans for next year. And cutting Flanagin will save you $500K

I agree with your concept of not going for the glamor guys (Turner and Samuels) in FA.
 
first, excellent post Hottoddie :thumbup

1. 35 million does seem high for this season, think thats the following year. 20-25 million sounds about right.

2. Rick will need accurate assesment of the IR/PUP players from the medical staff, several were starters (Dunta Robinson, Fred Weary, Jason Simmons, Earl Glenn) that would have seen due large increases as free agents.

3. I know they always evaluate the roster on a continous basis, this year they have alot of attractive unrestricted free agents that deserve extensions, Danny Clark, Andre Davis, Will Demps, Matt Turk, N.D. Kalu, Charlie Anderson, & yes Ron Dayne.

4. Lock up DeMeco Ryans long term. The Texans have done a good job extending their own players (cap friendly) like Andre Johnson last season. I would take the cap hit this year to ensure Ryan stays with the Texans by rewarding him with the contract he richly deserves.

5. Aquire Free Agents who address needs.

RB Michael Turner, big bucks.

RB Tatum Bell is more likely given his Denver connections, the fact hes been hurt alot & unused in Detroit (discount) knows Kubiaks system well.

CB Asante Samuel, big bucks.

CB Domonique Foxworth, RFA, Denver Broncos is someone who Rick Smith is very familar with I think the Texans will at least tender him an offer.

OG Alan Faneca, big bucks.

OT Travelle Wharton, good young tackle that could also swing inside & play guard if needed. is just under the big bucks heading but just might be in the Texans price range.

6. The Draft. I'm in favor of trading down if a LT is not available or selecting a cb if unsuccessful in Free Agency/Robinsons full recovery in doubt. Too early for me to project much beyond the 1st rd. but I can offer feedback on your 1st rd. selections, for instance its doubtfull Stewart comes out, Kenny Phillips & Malcom Jenkins selected early while Connor plays the same position as DeMeco. 1st. rd. should look more like-

1. Sam Baker/Jeff Otah LT's, Mike Jenkins/Reggie Smith/Antoine Cason/Aqib Talib CB's :)
 
I think our first order of business should be resigning some of our key guys (ie. Demps, Davis, Dunta, etc.)

Second we should look to sign a high profile free agent (ie. Faneca, Starks, Samuels, Trufant, Turner, etc.) I would prefer we sign one of those two CB and/or one of those two OL. I think that the RB class in this draft is extremely strong and I think we land a franchise RB (Stewart, Mendenhal, etc.) in the middle of the first round. We need to stay relatively conservative with our money but we do have the room and the need to sign one big money guy.

Third we need to address some of the other positions of need with mid to low level FAs. Two positions of need I think we can address with mid-level FAs is a SLB and a pass rushing specialist DE. We should also add depth at any chance we get.

That should set us up for the draft fairly well. Ideally, I would like to sign Faneca and/or Trufant, a SLB, and a DE. Then draft Stewart or Mendenhal in the first and a LT in the third. I'm not one who thinks that Spencer can make it back to LT but I think with Pitts, Spencer, and (hopefully) Faneca we will have some nice competition for the guard spots. That leaves LT as a bit of a question but with Salaam, Butler, and (hopefully) our third round LT we should have some healthy competition there too.

I know there is a lot that will happen between now and March but, overall, I think we need to improve at SLB, LT, RG, RB, CB (Bennett has looked good but I'm worried about Dunta,) and RDE (move Mario to LDE.) However Smith would like to do that is fine with me.
 
Neither Starks nor Faneca fit our system. They are both maulers.

I think Turner is a product of Lorenzo Neal and the Chargers line more than anything else, and won't be worth the money he will get.

A trade down for Felix Jones, Stewart, Slaton, or another back if there are no good LT's available.
 
The1ApplePie said:
Neither Starks nor Faneca fit our system. They are both maulers.

I think Turner is a product of Lorenzo Neal and the Chargers line more than anything else, and won't be worth the money he will get.

A trade down for Felix Jones, Stewart, Slaton, or another back if there are no good LT's available.
Click to expand...

That's a good point about Starks and Faneca. Faneca, the guy I'd most like to have, is also a guard and I feel that we are fairly well off at that position. I'm not sure how high Kubiak is on Butler but he shows a lot of potential. If he is not the guy hopefully we can find a lower profile guy ith finesse and add an impact corner like Trufant.
 
Our projected cap space isn't in the top 10; link:

Team
Signed Players 2008 cap room

1. Tennessee
39 $40.85 million
2. San Diego
44 $33.03 million
3. Jacksonville
43 $32.69 million
4. Buffalo
49 $32.05 million
5. New Orleans
39 $31.69 million
6. Cincinnati
48 $31.45 million
7. San Francisco 4
8 $30.91 million
8. Cleveland
42 $30.31 million
9. Arizona 3
4 $30.27 million
10.N.Y. Jets
45 $27.72 million
11.Oakland
40 $25.98 million
12.Tampa Bay
48 $25.90 million
13.Miami
48 $25.56 million
14.N.Y. Giants
49 $24.47 million
15.Detroit
42 $23.50 million
16.Houston
43 $22.91 million
17.Dallas
40 $20.61 million
18.Kansas City
44 $20.27 million
19.Chicago
52 $19.80 million
20.Pittsburgh
43 $18.61 million
21.Green Bay
48 $18.37 million
22.Philadelphia
49 $17.17 million
23.Denver
49 $16.77 million
24.Minnesota
49 $14.88 million
25.New England
41 $10.93 million
26.St. Louis
45 $9.61 million
27.Seattle
44 $9.55 million
28.Indianapolis
48 $8.49 million
29.Carolina
35 $6.05 million
30.Atlanta
52 $5.79 million*
31.Baltimore
42 $5.00 million
32.Washington
45 -$20.72 million

* Not including unspecified potential rebate from contested return of Michael Vick's pro-rated signing bonus.
 
Who is clark ? # 65 ?

Need a RB option in every round. There are going to take at least one.

There was period of about three weeks where Flanagan absolutly sucked. Now you can say that he shook off the rust. You could say that as a group they came together.
Or you can say there is no way in hades Flanagan is stout enough to handle the DTs in our didvision. That was the reoccouring theme all season. They come up agint an elite DT that was on top of his game, they got smashed like a wormy apple.


6. The Draft. I'm in favor of trading down if a LT is not available or selecting a cb if unsuccessful in Free Agency/Robinsons full recovery in doubt. Too early for me to project much beyond the 1st rd. but I can offer feedback on your 1st rd. selections, for instance its doubtfull Stewart comes out, Kenny Phillips & Malcom Jenkins selected early while Connor plays the same position as DeMeco. 1st. rd. should look more like-
Click to expand...

There are couple of young backers coming out. Don't know if we're interested. Butler will be playing in the New Mexico bowl in a couple of days. When you're watching UCF Moffit is raw but very athletic. UCF also has an intereting DB for day two.

Very good job Hottoddie. Rep your way.
 
I'm against signing Turner, I just don't think he will be worth what we give up. Like it was mentioned earlier, Fanaca and Starks don't fit our system. They are both big, powerful players more geared towards a smashmouth, power blocking scheme. I would never sign a LT in FA and expect him to be able to start. It doesn't happen. No team, regardless if they have a Pace in front of that player, will let a legit LT walk. You draft LT's.

Now, I'm not really too concerned with our current team, but I love the whole draft talk. I don't think we need to be worried about our position to the point of throwing games. Ever. However, let's assume we end up with pick #17 for instances...in a deep class such as this years (assuming the premier JR's declare) we would be towards the end of the line on the supposed elite prospects at skill positions. I think it would be possible to trade out of the first for an early second, similar to what Dallas did last year with Cleveland. I also think we could trade down towards the end of the first, probably in about the 24 range and land a second rounder this year as well.

At the end of the first/early second, we will find the type of players we actually NEED for this team to play consistently. I think Sam Baker will fall, Oher is falling now, and those are two blue chip talent OT's to consider. Also, with the early second, we could be looking at a legit RB with someone like Mendenhall or Felix Jones, two RB's I'm very high on as far as NFL potential goes. I think with the 3rd round pick, we could be looking at a few options, depending on how FA shook out. We could be looking for a CB, in which case the guy from Tenn State would be a nice option. We could look at FS, in which Steltz from LSU would be a great pick. We could be looking RDE, in which Bruce Davis from UCLA would be a great pick.

Really, it is still too early to be able to honestly go much deeper than that at all. I have just started reviewing tapes, and it will be a good while before I will even attempt to throw out an honest mock. I will probably put out a big board like I did last year to help some of you out though.
 
The1ApplePie said:
Neither Starks nor Faneca fit our system. They are both maulers.

I think Turner is a product of Lorenzo Neal and the Chargers line more than anything else, and won't be worth the money he will get.

A trade down for Felix Jones, Stewart, Slaton, or another back if there are no good LT's available.
Click to expand...

I have no problem baring outrgeuos costs, age, with going after these two guys...my question with them has always been what are you going to do with Winston and Pitts. Seems like double dipping at the same spot to me.


The only problem I have with Turner is if they wanted the guy they should have drafted him the year he came out. They didn't and this HC doesn't so I'm guesing...we won't. Kubes is going to pick "His" guy. I think and do not know for a fact that Kubiak likes to pick the raw guys run them through the ringer and coach them up. Not saying that Turner is not a tallented option. What I'm saying is this HC has a way of developing RBs and that is what he knows. And he is sticking to it. And that is my story on Turner the burner and I'm sticking to it.

Another thing is are they going to settle out Green ? Some seem prety certain they are. I'm not so sure they are. Danye's locked. He's not going anywhere. They're going to have to hack some spots off the roster come febuary. If they hack Green...I'll start to swallow Turner the burner.

That would mean they go from 22 million of cap space down to sixteen ? What did those guys tell us at the time of the Green signing...it wouldn't hurt very much ? We haven't had much luck with signing guys close to the thirty line is all I know. It's always something with those guys. Salaam has been the exception, not the rule.
 
Hottoddie said:
So, what do I have to work with & what do I need to do with it?

Off Season to Do List

1) I know I have $35+ million in available cap space to spend.
2) I have to set some money aside for my draft picks.
3) I have 4 major holes I need to fill immediately (LT, CB, RB, C) & I need depth throughout the team.
4) I don't believe FS is a major need position anymore, with the emergence of Demps. He just needs to get that damn brace off his arm. Harrison should be ready to play by next year as well.
5) I'm going to release Flanagan & Green, which should give me an additional $2.5 - $3.0 million in cap space. That'll give me ~$38 million to spend in free agency.
6) I only want to bring in guys in the 24-26 year old range.
7) I believe that Spencer, McKinney, Taylor, Weary, White, & all the rest of my players on injured reserve will be fully recovered & ready to go by next season. The only exception should be Dunta.
8) I've got to resign Davis, Demps, C.C. Brown, Kalu, Weary, & Clark. I'll wait on the rest to see how free agency & the draft plays out.

So, let's get started.

Free Agency

I'm going to target 4 key free agents immediately, but I'll have backup candidates for 2 of them.

1) Travelle Wharton (LT) (UFA) - Carolina: Unless they tag him (They probably will), I'll be in touch with him in the first minute of free agency & be offering him a near franchise tackle type of salary ($8-10 million per year).

1a) If he's tagged, I'll go after Max Starks (RT) (UFA) ($4-6 million) - Pittsburgh: Depending upon the coaches opinions, this would allow us to put Starks at RT & move Winston to RG or LT, with Spencer filling the other role.

2) Marcus Trufant (CB) (UFA) - Seattle: Again, unless they tag him (& they probably will), I'll be in touch with him right after I talk with Wharton. If you figure that Asante will get Clements type of money, then I have to be looking at paying $6-8 million per year.

2a) If Trufant is tagged, I'll go after one of these CB's (in this order).

Randall Gay (CB) (UFA) - New England ($2-3 million per year)
Drayton Florence (CB) (UFA) - San Diego ($3-4 million per year)
Domonique Foxworth (CB) (RFA-3rd) Denver ($2-3 million) I'll only go after Foxworth if I miss out on the first 3 & trade down in the draft to pick up another 3rd.

3) Landon Johnson (OLB) (UFA) - Cincinnati: LJ will make a great compliment to DeMeco ($3-5 million per year).

4) Tatum Bell (RB) (UFA) - Detroit: Either he'll opt out of his contract, or they'll cut him. I'm not sure which it'll be, but he will be a free agent ($3-4 million per year).

Well, that's all my free agent acquisitions & depending upon who I get, I'll have spent somewhere between $12-27 million. If I spent $27 million, it'll mean I signed 4 starters in Wharton (LT), Trufant (CB), Johnson (OLB), & Bell (RB) to fill 4 of our biggest holes before the draft rolls around.

However, the reality of the NFL is that I'll have probably signed Starks (RT), Florence (CB), LJ (OLB), & Bell (RB) for ~$19 million. I'd consider that a pretty good free agent haul though. That'll leave me ~$19 million to resign our free agents & draft picks. Now, on to the draft.

Draft Day

As of this post, we're picking in the 15-19th spot in the draft, depending upon how the strength of schedule shakes out. With my free agents signed, here's how I'll approach the draft. If I can trade down & pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd, I most likely will. While you never want to lose any games, losing these last 2 would sure go a long way towards giving me more leverage in trade down discussions. But, assuming we end up where we are now, here's what I'll do.

1) Jonathan Stewart (RB), Kenny Phillips (FS), Mike Jenkins (CB), Dan Conner (OLB)

3) Leodis McKelvin (CB), Steve Winston (C), Louis Holmes (DE)

4) Jordon Dizon (OLB), John Sullivan (C), Kyle Devan (C)

5) Kyle Devan (C), Andrew Bain (G), Eric Bakhtiai (DE)

6) Eric Bakhtiai (DE), Bruce Hocker (WR), Hercules Satele (G)

7) Bruce Hocker (WR), Caleb Campbell (SS), Lionel Dotson (DT), Eric Foster (DE)

Hehe, how's that for a list of no name draft picks? :D I guess it's a good thing I'm not Rick Smith. :)

Anyway, what would you do, if you were Rick Smith?
Click to expand...

First, Houston pro football agrees with your cap figures and that is what I use. $35m
http://www.houstonprofootball.com/cap2008.html

Second, Under #6 above you say bring in only guys 24-26 yet Travelle Wharton's B.D. is May 19, 1981 making him 27 before 08 season. He missed most of 2006 & I want to know what he has looked like 07 to draw the bucks you are willing to pay? He is short at 6'4" but weight is good. How are his feet and slide ability? I'm not against a 27 yoa LT but brought it up.

Third, I thinks Demps will play solid last two games and should be starter in 08. If Harrison turns out as have the other Smith draft picks, the kid will be the starter by midseason.

Fourth, I think Samuel CB can be signed five years 60 million with a good up front guarantee and the guy has 6 INTs. Enough said. DR probably not ready for several games. We need to get strong start & allows DR time to heal.

Center will be McKinney and better of Flannagan & White, like it or not. Unless a late rounder shocks and delivers.

Our holes are LT, RB, and OLB with above scenario.

Unlike others my glass is half empty on LT. I believe Baker and Clady will be gone by 17. So, I trade and pick up a 2nd round.

Draft: 1st: RB Stewart, (I'll be surprised if he is there but I've seen mocks with him going early 2nd round). Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Hart or Ian Johnson will satisfy me. *Note, I'm not so sure Green will be cut. I can see Green, 1st round RB, Dayne and He who will be named later.
2nd: OLT We have two to look at; Chris Williams Vanderbilt 6'6" 315 @
5.25 and Mike McGlynn Pittsburgh 6'5" 318lbs @ 5.25 Tony Hills from
U.T. I am off/on about. If none of these are avail at this pick I go
clear off the chart for ALex Boone Ohio State 6'7" 325lbs. Something
"whispers in my other ear" that this guy is going to be very steady.
3rd: *If Mike McGLynn is still on board, he is mine. He can play LT,G &
C. I need an OLB here so Cliff Avril Purdue 6'3" 250 4.78. Our DBs will
much improved especially with Samuel anchoring one side. He can
move up on passing plays if needed.
4th: FS Quentin Demps or Marcus Griffin who is moving up.
5/6/7 BPA
 
PapaL said:
Per the asterisk on the provided link; *Note: The Texans will likely exercise a $12 million option bonus on Mario Williams' contract

$35M -$12M = $23M to play with (minus Rookie Contracts of course)
Click to expand...
understood but not done deal. Seems like we need the cap space this year.
 
Carr Bombed said:
I really doubt Kevin Smith falls that far, his stock has been rising........I see him as pick in the round which we have no draft pick in.
Click to expand...

He is expected to have a slow time in the forty. The Great Blue North have him as the 9th best RB, and that # usually means 3rd rounder. This is a deep draft for RB, and that is pushing the position down the draft chart.

The top 14 guys should all be pretty good NFL backs, and some of the lower guys will have an impact. So this is a good draft to be needing RB.
 
Hottoddie, I haven't had a chance to go through all the details yet but rep to you for a well thought out and laid out post. Nice work.
 
Hottie, and all who've contributed, great job.

For Sh@# & giggles, what do you think about the idea of getting a guy like Fanaca from the steelers(I know he's old, but if we're going to be getting rid of Flanagan, it'd be nice to have someone with some real salt on the OL), and moving Pitts to LT??

Then while I know our RB situation is far from desirable, If Green is going to be a Texan, Dayne is resigned, Walker improves over the next two weeks, and Chris Taylor is expected to be healthy in '08, where are we going to put this FA running back??

Just some ideas guys...

discuss.
 
thunderkyss said:
Hottie, and all who've contributed, great job.

For Sh@# & giggles, what do you think about the idea of getting a guy like Fanaca from the steelers(I know he's old, but if we're going to be getting rid of Flanagan, it'd be nice to have someone with some real salt on the OL), and moving Pitts to LT??

Then while I know our RB situation is far from desirable, If Green is going to be a Texan, Dayne is resigned, Walker improves over the next two weeks, and Chris Taylor is expected to be healthy in '08, where are we going to put this FA running back??

Just some ideas guys...

discuss.
Click to expand...

Green won't be a Texan, Dayne will be backup, and whoever has a worse camp between Walker and Taylor will get cut.
 
thunderkyss said:
Hottie, and all who've contributed, great job.

For Sh@# & giggles, what do you think about the idea of getting a guy like Fanaca from the steelers(I know he's old, but if we're going to be getting rid of Flanagan, it'd be nice to have someone with some real salt on the OL), and moving Pitts to LT??

Then while I know our RB situation is far from desirable, If Green is going to be a Texan, Dayne is resigned, Walker improves over the next two weeks, and Chris Taylor is expected to be healthy in '08, where are we going to put this FA running back??

Just some ideas guys...

discuss.
Click to expand...
I just don't see them letting Green go unless it is obvious he can't get on the field. Fanaca may cost too much and I want to see holes filled with free agent money, especially if the Mario thing is completed. He gets more up front money to add to the end of contract but then he can opt out of the contract BUT Texan can buy him or something? Whoo. I think Fanaca will have too high a cost vs return at his age. McKinney and Pitts will be there and maybe Weary. That is enough seasoned players. We all know it cost to bring in FA and most are over paid. I would like to see us bring in player(s) that are not coming off injuries, or not enough known (Turner falls here for me). Julius Jones doesn't do it for me either. If we can sign Asante Samuel and fill a huge hole @ CB and no one else, I will consider it a great off season.
 
Hottoddie said:
Drayton Florence (CB) (UFA) - San Diego ($3-4 million per year)
Click to expand...
Are you seriously suggesting the Texans would give this cheap shot artist a FA contract? That would go over like a lead balloon in the Texans locker room.

And no Tatum Bell. Unless it's for the league minimum. Bell is not a starting RB in the NFL. In fact, there are very few FA's that are worthy of throwing a big contract at. What a lousy year to have extra cap room. Although Charley Casserly could still find guys to give $30 million deals to.
 
Lucky said:
Are you seriously suggesting the Texans would give this cheap shot artist a FA contract? That would go over like a lead balloon in the Texans locker room.

And no Tatum Bell. Unless it's for the league minimum. Bell is not a starting RB in the NFL. In fact, there are very few FA's that are worthy of throwing a big contract at. What a lousy year to have extra cap room. Although Charley Casserly could still find guys to give $30 million deals to.
Click to expand...
Charley stay out of our free agency! :pirate:
 
The way I see it, there are four players that really need to be replaced:

Salaam
Green
McKinney/Brown
Safety - I haven't decided which

The defenisve line is strong, the linebackers are strong, the quarterbacks and receivers are strong. The true weaknesses are RB, offensive line, and defenisve secondary.

If it was me, I would not make a big splash in free agency. It's never paid off for the Texans (JMO). I used to really like the idea of trying to bring in a high-caliber Safety or cornerback. Now I'm thinking I'm only going after a running back. I'll pay whatever it takes for a speedy running back, one-cut guy who is also a great guy. I haven't done my research, so I don't know who this dude is, but if he's out there, I take him.

Draft:

1st rd: trade down/bpa (Talib/Jenkins I'm thinking, but could be anything)
2nd rd: if I can pick up a second rd pick, I'm taking a lineman. Best remaining Center or LT.
3rd rd: Assuming I didn't get a defensive secondary in the first rd, I get one here.

The remaining rounds will be used for another offensive lineman, a linebacker possibility, and the all-important running back.

Accomplishments:
1. I've answerd the RB problem. I have a new stud running back to include with Dayne. Somebody to take the ball downfield between September and October, during the first half of the game.
2. I still haven't completely answered the defensive secondary problem, but I've at least brought in a third-rounder. If I bring in Jenkins or Talib, I've added some real product in the backfield.
3. The o-line is getting old. The Texans have a plethora of young guys chomping at the bit, but I need either a center or a left tackle of the future who may need to start as early as before the end of the season. So I've drafted higher than I would have to bring the talent.
4. More depth, more depth, more depth. This could be another safety/Cb prospect as opposed to an offensive lineman.
 
Texans Horror said:
The way I see it, there are four players that really need to be replaced:

Salaam
Green
McKinney/Brown
Safety - I haven't decided which

The defenisve line is strong, the linebackers are strong, the quarterbacks and receivers are strong. The true weaknesses are RB, offensive line, and defenisve secondary.

If it was me, I would not make a big splash in free agency. It's never paid off for the Texans (JMO). I used to really like the idea of trying to bring in a high-caliber Safety or cornerback. Now I'm thinking I'm only going after a running back. I'll pay whatever it takes for a speedy running back, one-cut guy who is also a great guy. I haven't done my research, so I don't know who this dude is, but if he's out there, I take him.

Draft:

1st rd: trade down/bpa (Talib/Jenkins I'm thinking, but could be anything)
2nd rd: if I can pick up a second rd pick, I'm taking a lineman. Best remaining Center or LT.
3rd rd: Assuming I didn't get a defensive secondary in the first rd, I get one here.

The remaining rounds will be used for another offensive lineman, a linebacker possibility, and the all-important running back.

Accomplishments:
1. I've answerd the RB problem. I have a new stud running back to include with Dayne. Somebody to take the ball downfield between September and October, during the first half of the game.
2. I still haven't completely answered the defensive secondary problem, but I've at least brought in a third-rounder. If I bring in Jenkins or Talib, I've added some real product in the backfield.
3. The o-line is getting old. The Texans have a plethora of young guys chomping at the bit, but I need either a center or a left tackle of the future who may need to start as early as before the end of the season. So I've drafted higher than I would have to bring the talent.
4. More depth, more depth, more depth. This could be another safety/Cb prospect as opposed to an offensive lineman.
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Your post doesn't make me grab my chest and keel over, but...

You are willing to go for a RB in FA & from what I've seen from others is Turner. About the only one out there with age and some positive stats behind him. Seems like he is 50/50 on folks that want him and those that do not. If Mario is optioned as has been hinted, that will lower the available cap to apprx $23m. That leaves $10-12 m for FA imo. Personally I am going to throw that at CB Samuel who avg last two season for interceptions is 8. That is 8 change of possessions a season. I rate that be that better than 8 QB sacks that lead to a turnover because, Samuel avg 13 yds after the INT. Texans just gave Mario $54 m last season and his 13 sacks have not lead to 8 turnovers and 13 yd advancement. Hmm.. I'll start a thread. He will probably want more.

2nd: you want to depend on Bennett a sophomore and a rookie as your two CBs? I like Bennett, but he had Dunte on the other side for a while. I'm just saying...

3rd I don't see too many Centers or LT available low in second round. Personally, my view is same in this round with either Chris Williams or Mike McGlynn. As distant 3rd choice but a likely one is ALex Boone. Ohio State.

4th I think our starting safeties are on the roster. I would go in 4th round for FS Quentin Demps or Marcus Griffin. Enjoyed your thoughts.
 
painekiller said:
He is expected to have a slow time in the forty. The Great Blue North have him as the 9th best RB, and that # usually means 3rd rounder. This is a deep draft for RB, and that is pushing the position down the draft chart.

The top 14 guys should all be pretty good NFL backs, and some of the lower guys will have an impact. So this is a good draft to be needing RB.
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http://www.gbnreport.com/index.htm

Central Florida junior RB Kevin Smith has announced that he will be returning to UCF for his senior season at UCF and will pass on a chance to enter the 2008 draft. The 6-0, 212-pound Smith ran for 2,448 and 30 TDs this fall and is just 180 yards shy of tying former Oklahoma State standout Barry Sanders for Division I-As all-time single-season mark.
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I dunno...if we move down a big "if",and get extra ducats for '09, extra ammo, I'm thinking this guy could be one of those elite guys.
 
badboy said:
Your post doesn't make me grab my chest and keel over, but...

You are willing to go for a RB in FA & from what I've seen from others is Turner. About the only one out there with age and some positive stats behind him. Seems like he is 50/50 on folks that want him and those that do not. If Mario is optioned as has been hinted, that will lower the available cap to apprx $23m. That leaves $10-12 m for FA imo. Personally I am going to throw that at CB Samuel who avg last two season for interceptions is 8. That is 8 change of possessions a season. I rate that be that better than 8 QB sacks that lead to a turnover because, Samuel avg 13 yds after the INT. Texans just gave Mario $54 m last season and his 13 sacks have not lead to 8 turnovers and 13 yd advancement. Hmm.. I'll start a thread. He will probably want more.

2nd: you want to depend on Bennett a sophomore and a rookie as your two CBs? I like Bennett, but he had Dunte on the other side for a while. I'm just saying...

3rd I don't see too many Centers or LT available low in second round. Personally, my view is same in this round with either Chris Williams or Mike McGlynn. As distant 3rd choice but a likely one is ALex Boone. Ohio State.

4th I think our starting safeties are on the roster. I would go in 4th round for FS Quentin Demps or Marcus Griffin. Enjoyed your thoughts.
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Great ideas, man. With only four needs, you could see the Texans saying FA, FA, first rd pick and third rd pick to plug all their holes. If they brought in Turner and Samuels (who I'm 50/50 on just cause I'm not sure the Texans will have enough $$$), that give them the chance to draft a left tackle in the first round and a center in the third. Now you have Samuels across from Bennett, Mike Turner back there with Dayne, plus a tackle to replace Salaam and a center to transition into the lineup (assuming McKinney is doing well).

My worry is that Samuel, as well as he has performed, will end up like Clements did in San Francisco. Or that Turner, who was supporting LT, would struggle when made the main ball carrier. I'm not saying they are wrong choices - I've been waffling on them for months - but these are my concerns with both players.
 
Texans Horror said:
Great ideas, man. With only four needs, you could see the Texans saying FA, FA, first rd pick and third rd pick to plug all their holes. If they brought in Turner and Samuels (who I'm 50/50 on just cause I'm not sure the Texans will have enough $$$), that give them the chance to draft a left tackle in the first round and a center in the third. Now you have Samuels across from Bennett, Mike Turner back there with Dayne, plus a tackle to replace Salaam and a center to transition into the lineup (assuming McKinney is doing well).

My worry is that Samuel, as well as he has performed, will end up like Clements did in San Francisco. Or that Turner, who was supporting LT, would struggle when made the main ball carrier. I'm not saying they are wrong choices - I've been waffling on them for months - but these are my concerns with both players.
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I agree. I was hoping to land a CB & solid RB in off season until I saw the Mario thing and not sure how that is best for team. It lowers his base salaries but his $12 million option has to be spread over that. It also takes $12m from cap in an off season where we need it. Maybe team agrees with me that there is not much quality out there. I am not saying no to Turner. His age and stats as a back up are enticing. I hesitate to put about $5m/year (even if we have it) in this player's pocket. 50-50 if he will become a main guy for us even if matched with Dayne. This may be the direction Kubes goes having two guys split the reps with a third getting a few here and there. I do not want Turner or any other FA if it eliminates Samuel.

I know that the front office has impressed me with quality of drafts and FA so far.
 
Can somebody start a thread with who we can look for as the Bowl Season is coming up shortly. That way, at least we know who to look for when we watch a certain game. Thanks.
 
TexanAddict said:
I think he is referring to return on investment; cost of player related to productivity.
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Thought so. Do you take the $23m or so and go for big bang for Samuel who avg 8 INTs last two years or sign one of the other guys and try to get another FA or two. I just do not see anyone else in FA filling a hole. I have voiced my suspician of Spencer @ RB. So I think I'd go hard for best CB we can get even if only FA we sign.
My thinking:
Despite Hutchins and Bennett, DR may not be back at starter quality. CB is hole.
Demps may have resolved FS and has two more games to convince coaches. Brandon Harrison should be solid back up based on how other draft picks are
.
Center stronger with new signing of Denver center. McKinney/White/ Greg Esinger(sp)

We can go RB/LT/OLB 1st 3rd 4th or RB/LT/OLB/DE or CB if none in FA if we trade down and get another pick. 5th,6th & 7th BPA
 
Despite RB being a need, we HAVE to address LT in the first. It is a weakness that we have yet to address and its time we did it. RB can be handled in the later rounds, and isnt as big a need for us, but LT is a must. followed by OLB and CB.
 
Hire Cam Cameron.

Maybe the Burner would be willing to give up some $$ for a chance to work with his former OC.
 
I already addressed my feelings about FA signings in the FA thread, so here I'll just address the draft. I feel that we need a LT more than anything. How long have we been complaining about our offensive line? But when was the last time we did anything about it? I understand we always have other needs, but look at the Colts, how long has that line been together? And Denver, how long has that group been together? (granted, they're faltering now, but they've been together since just about their SB days). Point is that offensive lines are much easier to keep intact than the other positions, so it's time we address. I don't care if we need a RB, I don't care if we need a FS, CB, Coach, whatever. Honestly, I'd say we do whatever it takes to get into the top 10 and draft one of the top 2 or 3 LT's. That's been a PRIMARY need every season we've been around, and we've yet to address. I beg of Rick Smith, please address it!

Everything else can wait till a later round, FRANCHISE LT's are found in the 1st round, Franchise RB's can be found anywhere.
 
if there is a franchise LT available when the Texans pick & he fits Kubiaks system Bob McNair himself would run up to the podium with his name & hand it to Roger Goodell :mail:

the only absolute now is that the Texans draft pick(s) are bpa on Rick Smiths board :cool:
 
Sorry I haven't responded to anyone's questions yet, but last week was a bear & I just haven't had the time this weekend, until now.

First off, thanks for the kind words & the Rep that many have given. I really didn't think this thread would get this much discussion, nor this much positive input. I guess that's what I get for visiting the NFL.com site so much.

Anyway, as for the available cap space, I went by the numbers at HPF. They've got the 2007 cap numbers & the 2008 cap numbers.

http://www.houstonprofootball.com/cap.html

http://www.houstonprofootball.com/cap2008.html

The 2007 cap numbers show Gary Walker, Todd Wade, Robaire Smith, Seth Payne, & Carr, among others, as Dead Money on the cap. I was under the impression that they were all coming off after this current season. Am I mistaken? Also, the 2007 cap indicates that we only have $2.3 million in available salary cap space.

The 2008 cap numbers show the above mentioned players off the cap. Also, all the unrestricted players are truely unrestricted after this season. So, which one is accurate? The 2008 numbers indicate that we have ~$35.2 million available to us.

As for the $12 million option bonus for Mario, since it was also listed on the 2007 salary cap, I just assumed it was already exercised. However, assuming it wasn't & that it will be exercised this off season, it's a bonus. Which means, it can be spread out over the length of his contract for cap purposes. That means it'll only add $3 million per year for the remaining 4 years of his contract (2008-2011). That would drop the alleged $35.2 million down to ~$32.2 million in available cap space.

Looking at the contracts of Flanagan, Green, & Weaver, I believe we could pick up an extra $2.8 million by releasing Flanagan & Green right away, & another $2.15 million by releasing Weaver after the June 1st cuts, which would allow us to spread his bonuses over 2 years. That's an extra $4.95 million added to the $32.2 million, for an approximate total of $37.1 million in available cap space for the upcoming off season. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Flanagan: (exp's.2008) $1 million bonus X 1 year = $1 million (2008 Cap#) $2.5 million (Total Saved in 2008) $1.5 million

Green: (exp's.2010) $1.25 million bonus X 3 years = $3.75 million (2008 Cap#) $5.05 million (Total Saved in 2008) $1.3 million

Weaver: (exp's.2010) $2.7 million bonus X 3 years = $8.1 million (2008 Cap#) $6.2 million. Cutting after June 1st divides the dead money hit over 2 years ($4.05 million). (Total Saved in 2008) $2.15 million

Of course, none of this takes into consideration any incentive bonuses or other hidden performance bonuses. ie, Mario leading the league in sacks.

I'll discuss the player questions in my next post tomorrow.
 
I don't agree with going after turner, I think we should go with walker and dayne next season. I like to see them go after a CB in the FA market.

Our draft focus needs to be at LT. This is the area we need fix
 
If I were Rick Smith heres how I would do it:

1st - I resign Demps and Clark and Andre Davis

2nd - I sign FA's Randall Gay cb NE
Travelle Wharton LT Car.
G. Wilson SS NYG
3rd - I then tender or trade Mathis, Faggins, and C.C. Brown
hopefully picking up a 4th for lets say Mathis

Draft---
1st- Ryan Clady LT Boise ST.
3rd- Xavier Omon Rb NW MIssouri ST.
4th(a) Dwight Lowry CB San Jose ST.
4th(b) Chris Horton SS UCLA
5th- Rudolph Hardie DE Howard
6th- Maurice Purify WR Nebraska
7th- Kregg Lumpkin RB Georgia
 
Hottoddie said:
Weaver: (exp's.2010) $2.7 million bonus X 3 years = $8.1 million (2008 Cap#) $6.2 million. Cutting after June 1st divides the dead money hit over 2 years ($4.05 million). (Total Saved in 2008) $2.15 million
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The May 1st cut, means in year one, 2008, you take the normal yearly bonus money against the cap, in Weaver case Year 1 equals $2.7M, and the next season, 2009, you take the rest of the bonus not yet charged to the Cap or $5.4M. So in reality you are not saving money in year two.

IIRC, your options are to take the full amount of bonus money as dead in the year of the cut, or split it the way I described for year one and two. Usually it is better to take the charge in the 1st year, deferring just defers your ability to move on.
 
whiskeyrbl said:
Draft---
3rd- Xavier Omon Rb NW MIssouri ST.
7th- Kregg Lumpkin RB Georgia
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I like the Lumpkin pick, have him on my radar for the 6 or 7th rounds also, but I do not see them taking 2 RBs in the same draft. This team has way to many needs to hit RB twice in the draft, IMO.

Green
Dayne
Walker
Taylor
Omon
Lumpkin

Who you going to cut? Green maybe to expensive to cut, Dayne has earned a spot.

Last year, 2007, we only carried 3 RB on the rooster, But Kubiak seems to seeing the error of that. So you get 4 backs, tops.
 
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