SamuraiSword
Waterboy
Now if Calvin Johnson drops to #8 we should get that guy! Then we can have the Johnson&Johnson duos at wide receiver!!!!
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Calvin Johnson Wow
- Thread starter tulexan
- Start date
Now if Calvin Johnson drops to #8 we should get that guy! Then we can have the Johnson&Johnson duos at wide receiver!!!!
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Dude, trust me it's not that serious, it certainly won't be the first time i've looked foolish on something. & just b/c I think that he's not the hands down # 1 draft prospect, doesn't mean that he still can't be good-great. I don't care what a draft website says b/c as far as i'm concerned they're in the same boat as you, me Kastofna any other person doing a mock draft, they just get paid to do it.
How many guys have emerged outside of the 1st round, let alone the top 10 to be great?
how many guys have put up spectacular college & combine stats only to be rendered "mortal" in their careers as pros.
I'm not questioning your reputation, i'm sure your good at what you do, b/c that's what you do, but like i said in a previous post i just prefer to watch him through his career rather than speculate before he even finds out what team he plays for.
threetoedpete
Hall of Fame
I warned ya. GL.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
I don't really see why sooo many people disagree that CJ is the top prospect. I understand people have different points of view. But most of these people probably have never seen Jamarcus Russell play except maybe this years sugar bowl. Don't get me wrong, I think JR is a very good player and has a lot of potential...but I don't see him as being a better athlete/player than CJ. I think JR has so much hype right now...probably more than RB did last year...maybe not on the media right now but people making mocks, this board, and other message boards around the internet...i think he is being hyped a whole lot.
Jamarcus Russell- Biggest thing about him is his Canon of an arm. He has great size and is very hard to 'bring down'. Not very fast or mobile despite many rumors going around-he is good enough w/ his feet to move around to avoid sacks and can throw decently on the run. doesn't have the speed that scares defenses but can get the first unlike a lot of qb's. Is still a raw talent and prospect. needs to better his technique and decision making for the pros. Is very smart as far as a coaching stand point and knowing the x's and o's.
As you can tell by my thoughts on JR, I think very highly of him. But I don't really see him as the best player in the draft. He still has too much to work on to be great where as once Calvin Johnson steps on the field I think he'll instantly be one of the best WR's currently in the nfl. the qb position obviously is different than wr, but none the less...CJ is the real deal imo. I think he's a better passer and has more football smarts than VY, but he won't make a 40 yd TD run in OT to beat you...he doesnt have that threat.
I also might regret saying this but I think Russell is more likely to bust or at least dissappoint in the nfl more than VY, Matt leinart, or Jay Cutler. Now is JR one of the better prospects this draft and should he be drafted top 5? of course. Should oakland draft him 1 overall? maybe-it wouldn't be a bad pick for them. JR still has too much to learn and has to grown a lot more. That's why he isn't the #1 player in this draft. Calvin Johnson without of doubt is the best player although he may not go #1. just my honest opinion.
Jamarcus Russell- Biggest thing about him is his Canon of an arm. He has great size and is very hard to 'bring down'. Not very fast or mobile despite many rumors going around-he is good enough w/ his feet to move around to avoid sacks and can throw decently on the run. doesn't have the speed that scares defenses but can get the first unlike a lot of qb's. Is still a raw talent and prospect. needs to better his technique and decision making for the pros. Is very smart as far as a coaching stand point and knowing the x's and o's.
As you can tell by my thoughts on JR, I think very highly of him. But I don't really see him as the best player in the draft. He still has too much to work on to be great where as once Calvin Johnson steps on the field I think he'll instantly be one of the best WR's currently in the nfl. the qb position obviously is different than wr, but none the less...CJ is the real deal imo. I think he's a better passer and has more football smarts than VY, but he won't make a 40 yd TD run in OT to beat you...he doesnt have that threat.
I also might regret saying this but I think Russell is more likely to bust or at least dissappoint in the nfl more than VY, Matt leinart, or Jay Cutler. Now is JR one of the better prospects this draft and should he be drafted top 5? of course. Should oakland draft him 1 overall? maybe-it wouldn't be a bad pick for them. JR still has too much to learn and has to grown a lot more. That's why he isn't the #1 player in this draft. Calvin Johnson without of doubt is the best player although he may not go #1. just my honest opinion.
R
real
Guest
Jamarcus Russel has decent speed, and he looked pretty moblie in the pocket everytime I saw him play.
threetoedpete
Hall of Fame
Agreed Old Miss. I'm seeing the same things in Russel as you and a lot of other guys are. You only get in the position to draft a perfect guy for your offensive system only a few times in franchise history. Can Al pass it up ? I coulnd't resist that's for sure.
I understand a lot of folks have trouble equating college top tallent to the NFL jump. It is a hugh casim. Sometimes folks just don't have the raw physical tallent, or the mental make up to make that leap. I post stuff on Lynch...I'm not just posting out of hand. The guy is very tallented. But the facts are he does not live up (play) to his rep. In other words, even as a high college guy, a first round draft pick guy...there are questions about him. And if I can see that as an amateur doing this, what do you think the pro scout guys are doing...they're asking the same danged questions.
Now you got a team like the Raiders...A prospect Like Jamacus Russell on the the board ....fits the QB of a vertical offense that the radier have run for forty years...to a tee, with Randy Moss a former first round rated guy on the team already and their is still talk that CJ is still in the running for #1 over all. There's only been two picked since the merger #1 over all at the WR postition. I mean if nothing else that sould give you a hint at the guys rated atheltism..rated by the NFL scouts. He's not just a good WR out of the prospects this draft....you could make the arguement he would be rated a top three pick in any draft, in any era. I don't know for a fact that he will catch Jerry Rice or Marvin Harrison. I don't know if he'll ever play with a HOFer QB. Or even a decent QB. What I do know, that the guy will make a lot of deffensive coordinators loose a lot of sleep durring his career. I believe he is a more polsihed prospect than Andre Johnson was coming out. I don't think there will be a learning curve like Andre Johnson had. He's faster , bigger, stronger and more acrobatic than A.J. Where did A.J. go in the draft ? The guy is a lock.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
He does have pretty good pocket prescence and can move around well which is what one would want in a qb....he doesn't have the scrambling ability that a lot of people are making it out to be....there is quite a diff.
And yes he's really going to be fun to watch. I have a feeling he's going to be on sportcenter a few times throwing the ball 70yds in the air to a wide open receiver for a TD. I think he'd look good in a raiders uni.
That'd be nice if he fell to 8 but cleveland sounds like they really like him..which means AP might fall to us....oakland is gonna make this draft interesting.
And yes he's really going to be fun to watch. I have a feeling he's going to be on sportcenter a few times throwing the ball 70yds in the air to a wide open receiver for a TD. I think he'd look good in a raiders uni.
That'd be nice if he fell to 8 but cleveland sounds like they really like him..which means AP might fall to us....oakland is gonna make this draft interesting.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
yeah, Ol' Al just can't get out of his own way, unless he comes to his senses & takes a QB. Whether it's JM or BQ, they need 1 bad, cause i don't see it in Andrew Walter at all.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
I think Al will pass out come draft day because he's stayed awake for more than 8 hrs. Then the rest of his FO is extatic that they can take Russell and make the selection while Al is asleep. If all stays awake he may be grumbling gimme #21.
common_fan
Practice Squad
I'll bet that if Raiders pass on CJ, the Lions are going to pick him up, the fourth reciever selected in five years.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
This draft is going to be fun. It's going to be full of ....'DRAMA' !
SF49erFaithful
Crabtree FTW
I'm not doubting how good of a prospect CJ is, but how do you know these numbers aren't exaggerated? I don't see any proof. It isn't uncommon for prospects' numbers to be inflated. If Johnson were to run at the combine I wouldn't count on him running under a 4.45. Not saying that that makes him any less of a prospect though.
threetoedpete
Hall of Fame
Well we'll find out in spades next week. I've seen him, with the DBs having a serious angle on him, absolutly suraounding him btw, plain flat out run them into the end zone. And they had a seven yard head start. How fast is that ? I didn't have a stop watch on him nor am I smart enough to messure the screen and figure it out. What I do know from what I've seen, he runs as fast as he needs to. Unless he gets nervious or catches the flu or something...he's going to run a fine forty. A lot better than the 4.6 Jerry posted. He is just one of those guys the football gods reached down and blessed when he was in the womb. He's as fast as he wants to be.
run-david-run
All Pro
Personaly I think the Raiders should take CJ, will probably take Russell. But has anyone considered them taking Joe Thomas? The worst offensive line combined with one of the best LT prospects in years...i know the Gallery stigma, but you cant stop drafting LT's because one hasnt worked out (and he was a pretty good RT, he could start there with Thomas at LT). I know most people claim you shouldnt draft on need (which i find stupid, because BPA is how you end up with a WR 3 staright years), but I think Thomas to the Raiders should at least be going through people's minds, especially when their offensive line was historically bad.
kastofsna
Hall of Fame
riiight.
tulexan
Hall of Fame
I thought Reggie ran closer to a 4.4
YoungTexanFan
All Pro
He put up the same numbers after his Soph. year. When was the last time you saw him caught from behind? When was the last time you watched one of his games? When was the last time you researched his athletic ability?
amazingandre
Rookie
http://goldentornado.blogspot.com/2006/02/calvin-johnson-freak.html
there you go some info on him.......he consistently runs 4.3 40's........just some insight for some of you.......what if he is there at 8 do we grab him.......HELL YES!!!!!!!
there you go some info on him.......he consistently runs 4.3 40's........just some insight for some of you.......what if he is there at 8 do we grab him.......HELL YES!!!!!!!
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
Who's Nathan and is that from a blog? I know he's really fast but it's probably better to find a more reliable source or else the people who don't believe will just discount it. It's like taking something off of our posts.
If for some reason he falls to us which he won't. We have to take him. I would rather us take a different position. The two I don't want to see us take on the first day is TE and WR. that's it. But if CJ is there...he's the pick even though i'm fine with andre and moulds...jeez i'm trying to imagine if we actually had him! incredible.
DRAMA
Rookie
SF49erFaithful
Crabtree FTW
CJ is certainly a great athlete, but I'm sorry that just because I don't buy these outlandish reported numbers of CJ doesn't mean I'm a hater on him or whatever. In fact I'd probably say he is the best prospect in this year's draft.
Vinny
shiny happy fan
Too many people look at raw linear speed or bench press totals at the combine (or like this pre-combine stuff) because it is hard to watch all the games...you can get into trouble trying to say a player can play based on combine numbers because the game has a physical dynamic that you just can't measure off of punt, pass, and kick totals. I don't trust much of the publicity workouts or the measurements their Colleges took of them because year in, year out they tend to be sensational and never duplicated. The combine is an unbiased stage where everything is measured uniformly so those figures carry more weight. That said, I've seen him play and he is very impressive. Johnson is a freak and is the best player at his position in this draft I think.
Don't forget the over-emphasis of the Wonderlic test scores, as well.
Sure, the NFL requires a certain level of athletic ability that can be partially determined by these tests. What just floors me, however, is the over analysis of the results by the so called draft experts and fans. Player A runs a 4.46 40 and Player B clocks a 4.51. Well, thats too bad for Player B. He needed to get under 4.5. Clearly, Player A is the superior prospect. What? The difference between the two is a twentieth of a second. Thats less than 4 inches at the finish line. I know its a game of inches, but come on! Thats also running in shorts rather than in pads. And yes, there is a difference. Stronger players run faster in pads than weaker players.
Look at bench press results. Isnt a player with 36 arm length doing more work than a player than a guy with 33 arms? What about size? Compare 2 players who come in each at 65 300lbs. Are they the same? One could have more weight in his hips and lower body, where strength is most needed in the game. One could have 5% more body fat. Its difficult to look at raw numbers and learn much regarding the differences in athletes. These combines and pro days are more of a pass/fail than an actual grade. And scouting is less of a science, and more of a black art.
There is my annual rant on the combine and pro days. Carry on with the 40 yard dash speculation.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
COMBINE & WORKOUTS within the group for that position help define & rank a known prospects playing ability & skill set as demonstrated on the field. also gives teams time to do background checks, interview & address any character concerns. Higher ranking should reflect numbers/measureables that are solid within the group if not near head of the class. affords the opportunity for the GM/Coaching staff to personally visit & veiw prospects they we're unable to watch because of their own NFL season so its more or less just confirmation of scouting departments that have been on the road all season long, evaluating talent to see if everyone is in agreement & who they target. 
run-david-run
All Pro
Jerry Rice ran a 4.6 40.
Emmit Smith ran a 4.7 40.
The sooner people realize the combine is the single most overrated event in the football calander, the better.
Emmit Smith ran a 4.7 40.
The sooner people realize the combine is the single most overrated event in the football calander, the better.
Texian
Hall of Fame
If you see a LB on tape that impresses and you go to the combine and he runs a 4.85, you say oh maybe not. If he runs a 4.75 you say, Oh about what I thought. If he runs a 4.65 you say, Oh better than I thought. Plus you got his medicals, an interview and all his measurables.
If you see DE on tape that impresses and you go to the combine and he lifts 225 lbs, 14 times you say, oh no, not what I thought, if he lifts 25 times, you say, about what I thought and if lifts 38 times you say, Oh wow much better than I thought.
This is what the combine is for. Verifying everything you think you see on tape.
BleedTheBurntOrange
Noob
I agree that it verifies what you saw on tape but why would you think less of a player if he runs slower or lifts less than you thought? I mean if he makes plays why go for someone with better measurables?
Look at it this year Lawrence Timmons has been projected as high as 15 to the steelers cause hes so physically gifted and is projected as a better pro prospect.They have Patrick Willis at the bottom of the first round or even second round even though hes the heart of his teams D and makes every play he possible can.
Patrick Willis reminds me of Demeco Ryans as in hes not the fastest or strongest but he makes plays so why take potential over production?
Look at it this year Lawrence Timmons has been projected as high as 15 to the steelers cause hes so physically gifted and is projected as a better pro prospect.They have Patrick Willis at the bottom of the first round or even second round even though hes the heart of his teams D and makes every play he possible can.
Patrick Willis reminds me of Demeco Ryans as in hes not the fastest or strongest but he makes plays so why take potential over production?
run-david-run
All Pro
Really? A differance of .2 seconds in gym shorts and sneakers is going to make the diffeance between you drafting player x after watching him play for 3 years? Never mind the fact that no position on the field, with the possible exception of WR, will ever run 40 yards straight up the field with no cuts or contact. Nevermind that you can have all the athletic ability in the world if you cant read a play correctly (LaVar Arrington, anyone?) or that fact that .2 seconds is a differance of inches over a distance of 40 yards.
Derrick Johnson ran the fastest time ever for a linebacker (if i remeber correctly). DeMeco was considered too small and a little slow. Care to compare their production?
kastofsna
Hall of Fame
you're over-simplifying things. as if the 40 yard dash is the only event that takes place at the combine. jerry rice and emmitt smith, despite their slow 40's, had very fast 10 splits and showed other incredible athletic feats in the other events, such as the various jumps and whatnot. there aren't too many great players that weren't amazing athletes. there's nothing "overrated" about the combine, unless you oversimplify it, then you just look foolish. you can say the 40-time is overrated if ya want, but no one looks at just the 40-time, so who cares...
Vinny
shiny happy fan
Why take potential over production? Because you are projecting players at the highest level and not projecting that they beat some overweight glorified HS player that will never get any better than he is in College. I could list a ton of highly productive NCAA players that won't ever sniff serious minutes in the Pros....guys like Timmy Chang, any Texas Tech QB and guys like JJ Arrington come to mind off the top of my head. Teams watch film, talk to coaches and confirm physical presence at the combines...all facets of this process are valid and needed.
run-david-run
All Pro
The main point of this thread is the 40 times, which is why i only mentioned that. Yes, some of the events at the combine help gauge a player's talent, but the draft is not a science, stop trying to turn it into one. Watch the players in games with pads on.
R
real
Guest
Players who aren't somewhat physically gifted don't become good football players.
Players who are the most physically gifted, aren't neccessarily the best football players.
What don't y'all understand.....
Players who are the most physically gifted, aren't neccessarily the best football players.
What don't y'all understand.....
run-david-run
All Pro
JJ Arrington was a high second round pick. After he did poorly his rookie season people assumed he was terrible, then Edge had the worst season of his career behind that same line...its not just the running backs. Also, some players, such as Texas Tech QB's, are part of a system that puts up gaudy passing stats (against UT, Tech had about 450 passing yards and 0 rushing yards). You dont need the combine to tell you they are part of a system that wont work in the pros, and not individually talented.
kastofsna
Hall of Fame
and stop trying to make it absurdly simple. if you just "watched them with the pads on" you'll get plenty of busts and terrible players. the combine is a tool for talent evaluation, stop pretending it's completely worthless and the only thing that matters is game film of a player that's not nearly developed yet either physically or mentally for the NFL game. it's college. they're not a finished product. get it in your brain.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
That's really all i've been trying to say since the beginning of this thread.
The real question is where you draw the line between a player's Potential & Production. Last year MW & VY were taken slightly more off of their potential than production. Then you have guys like ML & even Carson Palmer who were more than anything, taken off of what they did in college.
kastofsna
Hall of Fame
carson palmer was drafted #1 because he's one of the most prototypical quarterbacks ever to enter the NFL and had an amazing senior season to boot.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Yeah i get that, but would you agree that his senior season helped propel him to where he was eventually drafted at more than anything else?
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
It's impossible to watch film and watch 'the player in pads' on every single collegiate player...or at least those entering the draft. It would be a waste of time anyways. The combine helps a lot because it gets a lot more of the players together to do the exact same drills so you can compare them side by side. Not what one did 2 years ago in bad weather and what one did this year in good weather.
When you're investing millions of dollars in your players you're going to do everything you can to make the right 'investment'. First day players typically get a lot more attention because typically they are better, and are a whole lot more likely to actually play for your team. How much film do you think they watched of mario williams? i'd say 1million hours..exaggeration. I feel very confident that they watched a lot of film on the guys they figured they would have a shot at and interested in. Film is great and they will probably watch it as much as they can ...but the combine is a great tool for every team to be at and study the players.
When you're investing millions of dollars in your players you're going to do everything you can to make the right 'investment'. First day players typically get a lot more attention because typically they are better, and are a whole lot more likely to actually play for your team. How much film do you think they watched of mario williams? i'd say 1million hours..exaggeration. I feel very confident that they watched a lot of film on the guys they figured they would have a shot at and interested in. Film is great and they will probably watch it as much as they can ...but the combine is a great tool for every team to be at and study the players.
Do you have those numbers?
kastofsna
Hall of Fame
yup.
run-david-run
All Pro
Im not saying the combine is worthless, just overrated. A .2 second differance in unrealistic conditions shouldnt be the deciding factor in where a player is drafted. There are a lot more significant asspects to a player's performace then how fast they run, how high they jump, how many times they lift 225 lbs or how they throw and catch in unrealistic enviroments. Yes, such things as the interview process can be very helpfull, but Im just saying that people place way too much emphasis on the combine events. Also, when people train for months on end just for the combine, their numbers are going to be further inflated. 40 yards dosnt make a football player.
Ole Miss Texan
Hall of Fame
After thinking about it long and hard during my daily "Wal-Mart Run", I definitly get where you're coming from. I think we as fans...or at least some fans over emphasize the combine and numbers such as 40 times and bench press.
However I think the actual scouts and coaches look at it differently. I don't think they view it as a big of deal as some writers and fans may. At the end of the day I think the coach, when comparing two or three players to select, will look more towards the film...If a guy benchpresses say 3 less times, and runs a 4.5 instead of a 4.45 , he doesn't get the bump for the next guy if he's a more sound football player. I think fans can be too big on the numbers that you're alluding too...I definitly agree with that.
run-david-run
All Pro
And this make further sense when you consider how little the average fan sees of the player in question. How many of us saw DeMeco play on a consitant basis in college? I saw a couple of Alabama games, but watched the ball more then any specific player. As a result, when it comes to combine time and you see somone like Ernie Simms put up faster 40 times or more bench reps or whatever else is deemed significant for a linebacker, the value of those numbers is overstated because it is the only tangible comparison we have to make between players. As you said in your post, there is a different perspective for scouts, but unfortunately,we are not privelleged to it.